Friday, November 16, 2018

Stocks Reversing Higher into Final Hour on Diminishing Trade War Worries, Less Hawkish Fed Commentary, Technical Buying, Homebuilding/Medical Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Above Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 19.2 -3.8%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 133.80 -.02%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.07 +.10%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 42.83 -3.3%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 160.0 +68.4%
  • Total Put/Call .91 +7.06%
  • NYSE Arms .93 +32.9%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 74.78 +2.5%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 660.0 +1.03%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 99.84 +3.04%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 312.5 -.75 basis point
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 10.13 +1.20%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 202.11 +.78%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 146.77 -.01%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 20.0 +.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 26.0 +1.0 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -35.5 +4.75 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 67.34 +.50%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.35% -1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 26.5 +.75 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 72.25 USD/Metric Tonne +.25%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 14.0 +1.0 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -55.50 +.3 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -9.20 -4.1 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.03 +2.0 basis points
  • 71.5% chance of Fed rate hike at Jan. 30th meeting, 88.0% chance at March 20th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +85 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +133 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +11 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my biotech/medical/tech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and some of my emerging market shorts
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

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