Wednesday, November 07, 2018

Stocks Close Substantially Higher on Election Optimism, Stable Long-Term Rates, Diminished Trade War Fears, Tech/Healthcare Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  • Volume: Heavy
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 16.8 -15.6%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 135.07 +.21%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.95 -.8%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 39.53 -.70%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 96.0 +71.4%
  • Total Put/Call .97 -13.4%
  • NYSE Arms 1.32 +45.05%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 62.67 -2.63%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 534.0 -1.09%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 84.13 -3.94%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 289.0 -7.25 basis points
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 9.55 -1.29%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 186.71 -2.04%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 148.16 +.52%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 18.0 -1.0 basis point
  • TED Spread 26.25 +1.0 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -41.5 +.25 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 67.43 +.34%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.35% +1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 26.75 -2.25 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 72.05 USD/Metric Tonne +.36%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 9.70 -.1 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -49.4 -1.9 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -9.30 unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.08+1.0 basis point
  • 78.1% chance of Fed rate hike at Dec. 19th meeting, 79.5% chance at Jan. 30th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +420 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +157 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +48 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Higher: On gains in my medical/biotech/tech/industrial/retail sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

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