Monday, November 26, 2018

Stocks Surging into Final Hour on Less European Debt Angst, Bargain-Hunting, Technical Buying, Tech/Financial Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 19.2 -10.7%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 133.83 +.52%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.20 +1.49%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 45.32 -4.06%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 76.0 -15.6%
  • Total Put/Call 1.02 -8.9%
  • NYSE Arms .84 -44.7%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 79.33 -.77%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 703.0 +.99%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 99.79 -5.26%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 290.75 -16.0 basis points
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 10.25 -3.37%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 217.50 -.41%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 148.02 +.64%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 18.0 -1.0 basis point
  • TED Spread 30.25 +2.25 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -27.5 +5.25 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 66.91 -.30%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.39% +1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 23.25 +.5 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 64.2 USD/Metric Tonne +2.26%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -.8 -8.1 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -64.30 -9.0 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -6.60 +3.1 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.97 -1.0 basis point
  • 78.0% chance of Fed rate hike at Jan. 30th meeting, 89.5% chance at March 20th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +258 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +65 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +8 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech/medical/retail/industrial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

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