Tuesday, November 27, 2018

Stocks Reversing Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Stable Long-Term Rates, Bargain-Hunting, Technical Buying, Transport/Alt Energy Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 18.7 -.9%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 133.63 -.11%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.19 -.2%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 44.64 +2.67%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 88.0 +14.3%
  • Total Put/Call .86 -9.47%
  • NYSE Arms .80 +27.0%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 79.19 -.21%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 705.0 +.33%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 102.54 +2.75%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 294.0 +3.25 basis points
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 10.42 +.97%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 219.95 +1.12%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 146.76 -.85%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 17.75 -.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 29.75 -.5 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -25.25 +2.25 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 66.88 -.04%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.39% unch.
  • Yield Curve 22.75 -.5 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 62.18 USD/Metric Tonne -.19%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -1.4 -.6 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -63.70 +.5 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -6.60 +3.1 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.92 -5.0 basis points
  • 78.4% chance of Fed rate hike at Jan. 30th meeting, 89.7% chance at March 20th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +103 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +52 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +5 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Lower: On losses in my biotech/industrial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 75% Net Long

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