Tuesday, November 20, 2018

Stocks Falling Substantially into Final Hour on Global Growth Fears, Trade War Worries, European/Emerging Market/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Energy/Transport Sector Weakness

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  • Volume: Heavy
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 23.0 +14.5%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 133.28 -.52%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.16 +.4%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 47.10 +4.3%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 69.0 -20.7%
  • Total Put/Call .93 -3.1%
  • NYSE Arms 1.54 +92.5%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 78.62 +2.8%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 680.0 +1.86%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 105.96 +3.55%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 326.75 +4.25 basis points
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 10.70 +4.14%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 217.66 +4.73%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 146.97 +.21%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 19.0 -.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 28.0 -2.75 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -32.75 -1.75 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 67.05 -.47%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.38% +3.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve 25.25 -2.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 69.4 USD/Metric Tonne -1.84%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 8.90 +.1 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -55.30 -.2 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -9.70 +.5 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.98 -2.0 basis points
  • 72.0% chance of Fed rate hike at Jan. 30th meeting, 86.9% chance at March 20th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -293 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -135 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -12 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my index hedges and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

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