Monday, November 12, 2018

Stocks Falling Substantially into Final Hour on Fed Rate-Hike Fears, Gobal Growth Worries, Earnings Jitters, Tech/Energy Sector Weakness

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  • Volume: Above Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 19.55 +12.8%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 133.13 -.74%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.09 +1.0%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 41.06 +6.06%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 61.0 -15.3%
  • Total Put/Call 1.10 +.92%
  • NYSE Arms 1.61 +50.5%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 66.83 +1.43%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 591.0 +4.07%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 90.49 +2.77%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 304.0 +5.75 basis points
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 9.64 +.83%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 192.77 -.2%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 147.71 -.41%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 19.0 -.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 27.25 +1.5 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -48.5 -3.75 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 66.43 -.43%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.34% -1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 25.75 -.5 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 70.09 USD/Metric Tonne +.13%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 9.90 -.1 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -56.6 -.8 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -4.40 +1.8 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.05 unch.
  • 76.0% chance of Fed rate hike at Jan. 30th meeting, 91.8% chance at March 20th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -365 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -87 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +7 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Lower: On losses in my medical/biotech/tech/industrial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my emerging market shorts
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long

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