Thursday, November 29, 2018

Stocks Reversing Higher into Final Hour on Diminished Fed Rate-Hike Fears, Less China Trade Deal Pessimism, Oil Gain, Energy/Healthcare Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Higher
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 18.76 +1.46%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 134.31 -.05%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.11 +.10%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 43.67 -2.57%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 155.0 +61.5%
  • Total Put/Call .94 +11.9%
  • NYSE Arms 1.14 +164.0%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 73.92 -1.94%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 675.0 -1.66%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 103.08 +.04%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 288.25 -2.5 basis points
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 10.20 -1.07%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 206.89 -1.06%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 146.64 -.45%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 17.0 -.5 basis point
  • TED Spread 33.25 +1.5 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -12.25 +9.25 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 67.53 +.51%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.36% -2.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve 21.75 -2.75 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 63.35 USD/Metric Tonne +.86%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -4.5 +.4 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -56.60 +6.3 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -6.0 unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.99 +4.0 basis points
  • 80.0% chance of Fed rate hike at Jan. 30th meeting, 90.0% chance at March 20th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +118 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +120 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +47 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my biotech/industrial/tech/medical sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

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