Friday, January 04, 2019

Stocks Soaring into Final Hour on China Trade Deal/Stimulus Hopes, US Economic Optimism, More Dovish Fed Commentary, Biotech/Tech Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  • Volume: Above Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 22.5 -11.9%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 128.56 +.81%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.61 -3.9%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 50.42 -3.56%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 125.0 +45.4%
  • Total Put/Call .90 -32.3%
  • NYSE Arms .54 -64.24%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 84.84 -5.15%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 821.0 +3.5%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 112.69 -4.16%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 269.0 -10.75 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 97.77 -1.4%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 196.11 -5.5%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 152.73 +.44%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 15.5 -.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 39.5 -.25 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap 1.5 +1.0 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 67.70 +1.13%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.41% unch.
  • Yield Curve 17.0 -.25 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 71.68 USD/Metric Tonne +.08%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -11.6 +13.4 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -75.1 -4.0 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -14.0 -1.3 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.76 +7.0 basis points
  • 0.0% chance of Fed rate hike at March 20th meeting, 0.0% chance at May 1st meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +673 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +157 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +33 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/retail/industrial/medical/biotech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and some of my emerging market shorts
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

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