Monday, November 30, 2020

Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:           
Wall Street Journal:
Fox News: 
CNBC.com:
MarketWatch.com:            
Zero Hedge:
Newsmax:

 @kylenabecker:

@SydneyPowell1:
ProtectTheVote.com: 
HereIsTheEvidence.com:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 60.0 +.25 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 30.5 +.25 basis point.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 61.18 +.03%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 1,370.0 +45.0 points.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 24.42 -.63%
  • FTSE 100 futures n/a.
  • S&P 500 futures +.51%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.67%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 
 
Before the Open: 
  • (BMO)/1.91
  • (MOMO)/2.47
After the Close:
  • (HOME)/.60
  • (BOX)/.06
  • (HPE)/.34
  • (NTAP)/.73
  • (CRM)/.75
Economic Releases 
10:00 am EST
  • ISM Manufacturing for Nov. is estimated to fall to 58.0 versus 59.3 in Oct.
  • ISM Prices Paid for Nov. is estimated to fall to 64.0 versus 65.5 in Oct.
  • Construction Spending MoM for Oct. is estimated to rise +.8% versus a +.3% gain in Sept.
Afternoon:
  • Wards Total Vehicle Sales for Nov. is estimated to fall to 16.1M versus 16.21M in Oct.
Upcoming Splits
  • (MKC) 2-for-1
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Powell/Treasury Secretary Mnuchin testimony to Senate, Fed's Brainard speaking, German Unemployment Rate, Eurozone Inflation data, weekly US retail sales reports, Wells Fargo TMT Summit, BofA Materials/Infrastructure Conference, Morgan Stanley Consumer/Retail Conference, Piper Sandler Healthcare Conference and the Scotiabank Mining Conference could also impact trading today.
Market Hours
Normal:
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to maintain gains into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Lower into Afternoon on Virus Shutdown Fears, US Economic Data, Technical Selling, Energy/Financial Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  • Volume: Above Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 21.2 +1.9%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 1,284.0 -50.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 129.05 +.06%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.1 +.5%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 47.8 -4.2%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 121.0 -104.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .72 -2.7%
  • NYSE Arms 1.18 -28.9%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 50.26 -1.89%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 677.92 -.07%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 60.65 +1.1%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 120.0 +2.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 60.16 +1.48%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 164.98 +.06%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 181.01 +.21%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 8.25 -1.75 basis points
  • TED Spread 15.25 unch.
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -21.0 -2.5 basis points
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  72.75 -3.75 basis points
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 71.25 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 61.21 -.11%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .08% unch.
  • Yield Curve 68.75 -1.5 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 124.75 USD/Metric Tonne -3.2%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 77.80 -2.2 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 123.7 +6.0 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 65.1 +1.6 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.78 +2.0 basis points
  • 100.0% chance of no change at Jan. 27th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at March 17th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +7 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +5 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +9 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech/medical sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:
  • Small-Cap Value -2.1%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Energy -4.2% 2) Oil Service -3.8% 3) Homebuilding -2.6%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • MP, CRM, SAGE, LMND, CIIC, LGVW, SBE, HYLN, APPN, NKLA, MP, BDTX, GNRC, GPS, FSR, AAL, GRBK, CCL, MAC, ANF, CIIC, SBE, EVER and HYLN
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) GME 2) GPN 3) SCHW 4) GES 5) XBI
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) PT 2) PTCT 3) CDEV 4) PPL 5) LYV
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
  • Mid-Cap Growth +.1%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Digital Health +.5% 2) Semis +.3% 3) Biotech +.2%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • VERI, GTHX, MRNA, PI, GMHI, NVAX, ARCT, GME, APPS, EPZM, KPTI, TBIO, SI, BCOV, SONO, WORK and CDK
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) BOX 2) IGC 3) NUAN 4) AVYA 5) ECPG
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) APDN 2) QCOM 3) CRWD 4) UAL 5) PLUG
Charts:

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:
  • Volume Running +25.6% Above 100-Day Average
  • 0 Sectors Rising, 11 Sectors Declining
  • 24.6% of Issues Advancing, 73.0% Declining
  • 145 New 52-Week Highs, 3 New Lows
  • 84.4% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 57.1% 
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 1,222.0 -112.0 points
  • Vix 22.1 +5.8%
  • Total Put/Call .70 -5.4%
  • TRIN/Arms 1.15 -30.7%

Sunday, November 29, 2020

Monday Watch

Today's Headlines
Fox News:
CNBC:
Zero Hedge: 
 TheGatewayPundit.com:
The Epoch Times:
@kylenabecker:
ProtectTheVote.com: 
HereIsTheEvidence.com:
Digital Blackboard:
Worldometer:
Rt Covid-19:
KFF:
Night Trading
  • Asian indices are -.25% to +.5% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 59.75 +.5 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 30.25 unch.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 61.28 unch.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 1,379.0 +44.0 points.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 22.95 +.55%. 
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.48%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.22%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.13%.

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:
  • (ATHM)/1.00
After the Close:
  • (ZM)/.76
Economic Releases
9:45 am EST
  • The MNI Chicago PMI for Nov. is estimated to fall to 59.1 versus 61.1 in Oct.
10:00 am EST
  • The Pending Home Sales MoM report for Oct. is estimated to rise +1.5% versus a -2.2% decline in Sept.
10:30 am EST
  • The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity report for Nov. is estimated to fall to 15.8 versus 19.8 in Oct.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Italian inflation reports, CSFB Tech/Media/Telecom Conference, Citi Basic Materials Conference, Goldman Sachs Industrials Conference and the (DPZ) investor day could also impact trading today.
Market Hours
Normal:
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.

Saturday, November 28, 2020

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:          
Wall Street Journal:
CNBC: 
  • Had bullish commentary on (F), (AAPL), (AZEK) and (RGS).
MarketWatch.com:    
Fox News:
Newsmax:  
One America News Network:
Zero Hedge: