Tuesday, September 30, 2025

Wednesday Watch

Around X:

  • @Business 
  • @ZeroHedge    
  • @CNBC
  • @newstart_2024 
  • EricLDaugh
  • @BGatesIsaPsycho
  • @NicHulscher
  • @matt_vanswol
  • @HighWireTalk
  • @WarriorSpeech28
  • @TheChiefNerd
  • @TheIntelSCIF
  • INTELLIGENCE ties to Utah Valley University and the Charlie Kirk assassination. Why was the State Farm Stadium center for Charlie's memorial service rented out by TPUSA in May of 2025, when no other events were planned or on their schedule? Why was their military/intelligence related aircraft flying in the proximity during the Charlie Kirk assassination. We will get into the drones in an upcoming video. Why are there CIA agents embedded at the Utah Valley University campus and why were their accounts scrubbed after this was made public? Last but not least, when Charlie invited Tucker to speak, Tucker told Charlie he would not bring up other countries such as Israel so he doesn't upset Charlie's donors. Charlie told him to specifically NOT HOLD BACK and to speak the truth about EVERYTHING and not to worry about his donors, so Tucker did. This is so much deeper than you are being led to believe. Pay attention.
  • Candace Owens states that Charlie Kirk's assassination looks like a MILITARY OPERATION. - Numerous individuals that have given information or people involved/witnesses all have military backgrounds or are somehow connected. (video)
  • @MDBreathe
  • @WallStreetApes
  • @EmeraldRobinson
  • @elonmusk
  • @wideawake_media
  • @VigilantFox
  • @amuse
  • @In2ThinAir
  • @LibertyLockPod
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.75% on average. 
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 65.25 +.25 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 38.25 +.25 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 103.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.5%. 
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.96 +.06%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.38 -.01%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 83.6 -.8%.
  • US 10-Year Yield 4.15% unch.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 17.8 +1.3%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.09%. 
  • S&P 500 futures -.37%. 
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.40%.
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and consumer discretionary shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Higher into Final Hour on Rising Fed Rate-Cut Hopes, End-of-Quarter Window Dressing, Technical Buying, Pharma/Defense Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.38 +.02%
  • US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.14% +1.0 basis point
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 3.93% -2.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 103.3 USD/Metric Tonne -.3%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 31.4 euros/megawatt-hour -3.6%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 22.8 -2.8 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 8.2 -2.7 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 2.6 -.5 point
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(17 of 500 reporting) +15.5% -.4 percentage point
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 293.68 +.14:  Growth Rate +12.3% +.1 percentage point, P/E 22.7 unch.
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.50% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 476.24 -13.05: Growth Rate +17.2% -3.2 percentage points, P/E 33.8 +.7
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .68 -5.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.44 -8.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 2.6 unch.
  • US Yield Curve 54.75 basis points (2s/10s) +4.0 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.9% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 33.9% unch.
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.87% unch.: CPI YoY +2.99% -1.0 basis point
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.71 -5.0 basis points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.37 +1.0 basis point
  • Highest target rate probability for Dec. 10th FOMC meeting: 77.7% (+10.9 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 28th meeting: 56.6%(+3.4 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 4.0-4.25%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -6 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +25 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +180 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/utility/industrial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Mid-Cap Growth -1.0%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Gambling -6.9% 2) Electrification -2.2% 3) Energy -1.9%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • FOUR, BXSL, JEF, MSDL, PYPL, OBDC, GFS, CART, OCUL, YPF, UUUU, SN, KKR, SPOT, SOC, COF, CEKE, MELI, OWL, BRZE, FORD, GENI, PGY, KVYO, HUBS, FLUT, ETSY, DOCU, DKNG and FLY
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) ASST 2) OWL 3) SVXY 4) DKNG 5) CART
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) FLY 2) DKNG 3) FLUT 4) FLYE 5) TROX
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) PPA 2) KIE 3) XLE 4) XOP 5) VOX

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Large-Cap Growth +.1%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Pharma +3.3% 2) Biotech +1.4% 3) Defense +1.3%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • ANAB, VOR, UNFI, SUPX, BKKT, CRWV, EFTY, SMTC, BCAX, ADPT, UPB, BE, PATH, DNA, ALLT, PFE, MRK, GIILT, DHR, HOND, TECH, GMAB, GSK, UMAC, IE, TEVA, TMO, SLDE, CWST, IPG, FCX, CRH, OMC, ACLX, THS, LW, CORZ, ZK, BTSG, RYAAY, SLDE, MIR, AMGN, CCRN, AZN and BILI
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) PRGS 2) MLTX 3) LQD 4) AMBC 5) DNA
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) WOLF 2) CRWV 3) NUVB 4) TBN 5) BKKT
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) XLF 2) XLK 3) SMH 4) ARKK 5) URNM
Charts:

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (AYI)/4.83
  • (CALM)/5.01
  • (CAG)/.33
  • (RPM)/1.88 
After the Close: 
  • None of note
Economic Releases 

8:15 am EST

  • The ADP Employment Change for Sept. is estimated to fall to 51K versus 54K in Aug. 

10:00 am EST

  • ISM Manufacturing for Sept. is estimated to rise to 49.0 versus 48.7 in Aug.
  • ISM Prices Paid for Sept. is estimated to fall to 62.9 versus 63.7 in Aug.
  • Construction Spending MoM for Aug. is estimated to fall -.1% versus a -.1% decline in July.

Afternoon

  • Wards Total Vehicles for Sept. is estimated to rise to 16.2M versus 16.07M in Aug. 

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Barkin speaking, Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3 update, OPEC meeting and the weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running +13.9% Above 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 12.2 -1.4
  • 6 Sectors Declining, 5 Sectors Rising
  • 41.1% of Issues Advancing, 56.8% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms 1.18 -2.5% 
  • Non-Block Money Flow +$34.7M
  • 96 New 52-Week Highs, 40 New Lows
  • 60.3% (+.2%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 59.4 -.7
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 85.0 +.6%
  • US High-Yield All Sectors OAS Index 330.25 +4.75 basis points
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 256.4 -.7%
  • Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 165.3 -.2%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 50 (NEUTRAL) -2.0
  • 1-Day Vix 9.5 -7.1%
  • Vix 16.3 +1.1%
  • Total Put/Call .83 +7.8%

Monday, September 29, 2025

Tuesday Watch

Around X:

  • @Business 
  • @ZeroHedge    
  • @CNBC
  • @MarioNawful
  • @NickSortor
  • @LauraLoomer
  • @newstart_2024 
  • EricLDaugh
  • @Libsoftiktok
  • @Liz_Churchill10
  • @ShadowofEzra
  • @JackPosobiec
  • @LibertyLockPod
  • @TheIntelSCIF
  • @HustleBitch_
  • @WallStreetApes
  • @robbystarbuck
  • Roger Goodell and the @NFL just decided to make the Super Bowl political by picking Bad Bunny as the 2026 Super Bowl music act. The guy literally says he isn’t touring the US because of Trump’s ICE raids and just released a video mocking President Trump. Also, most of his songs aren’t even in English. This is not a pick designed to unite football fans or let people just enjoy the show. It was a pick designed to divide fans and no doubt Bad Bunny will find some way to push a woke message. Are NFL owners in on this idiocy or are they just culturally that disconnected from reality and how Roger uses the NFL to push left wing social issues? (pic)
  • @wideawake_media
  • @RealLindelTV
  • @realMaalouf
  • Christians are being massacred, and their women kidnapped, raped, and forcibly converted daily in Nigeria. This year, more Christians have been killed in Nigeria than Palestinians in Gaza. And yet, not a single protest for them!
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.75% on average. 
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 65.0 -.5 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 38.0 +.5 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 103.2 USD/Metric Tonne +.05%. 
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.95 +.01%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.4 -.02%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 84.0 -.6%.
  • US 10-Year Yield 4.14% +1.0 basis point.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 17.8 +.3%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.14%. 
  • S&P 500 futures -.06%. 
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.07%.
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, weighed boosted by technology and consumer discretionary shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.