Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Vaccine Hopes, Dollar Weakness, Short-Covering, Biotech/Tech Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 20.99 -1.22%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 1,323.0 +59.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 128.82 +.16%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.10 unch.

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 50.1 +1.4%

• ISE Sentiment Index 225.0 +77.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .69 -1.43%

• NYSE Arms 1.52 +45.7%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 51.21 -2.09%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 680.32 -.11%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 59.78 -1.7%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 118.0 unch.
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 59.29 +.09%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 165.03 -1.68%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 180.63 -.11%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 10.0 +.5 basis point

• TED Spread 15.25 +2.5 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -18.5 -2.75 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  76.5 +1.25 basis points
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 71.25 +1.0 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 61.28 +.04%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .08% unch.

• Yield Curve 70.25 -2.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 127.25 USD/Metric Tonne +2.9%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 80.0 -1.4 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 117.7 +8.1 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 63.5 +7.0 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.76 unch.
• 100.0% chance of no change at Jan. 27th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at March 17th meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +96 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +24 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -11 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower: On gains in my tech/biotech/medical/consumer staple sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -.6% Below 100-Day Average
• 5 Sectors Rising, 6 Sectors Declining
• 49.0% of Issues Advancing, 48.6% Declining
• 161 New 52-Week Highs, 1 New Low
• 84.5% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 57.8% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 1,362.0 +98.0 points
• Vix 20.9 -1.9%
• Total Put/Call .70 unch.
• TRIN/Arms 1.05 unch.

Friday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:            

• Bank of Canada Chief Defends Bond Purchases From Political Attacks.
• Libya’s Oil Comeback Has Legs Even If Reliability Is in Doubt.
• Caution Sets in for Stock Market; Treasuries Climb: Markets Wrap.  
• Race to Recovery, China Stimulus Exit, Swedish Surprise: Eco Day  
• Oil Falls From Eight-Month High on OPEC+ Tensions Before Meeting.  
• Bitcoin Steadies After Biggest Slump Since March Market Meltdown.  
• Holiday Goes Dark in California as Edison Cuts Power.
  

Wall Street Journal:

• U.S. Airports See Busiest Travel Day Since March.
• How Three TikTok Stars Beat Back U.S. Plans to Ban the App.
• Fireworks Over Religious Liberty.
• GM Drives in Political Reverse.
• With Slack, Salesforce Would Put Heat on Microsoft.
• Mexico Arrests Alleged Mastermind of Attack That Killed American Women and Children.

Fox News: 

• Trump insists there was 'massive fraud,' says he will visit Georgia in Q & A with reporters.
• Twitter claims it has reversed ban of link to Sidney Powell's Georgia election lawsuit.
• WaPo story on world's 'dread' about US Thanksgiving celebrations ripped.
  

CNBC.com:

• AstraZeneca and Oxford defend Covid vaccine trials after questions raised in the U.S.
• Google and Facebook to be scrutinized by new U.K. antitrust unit from next year.
• Amazon gives front-line workers a $300 holiday bonus.
• Take a look at the electric trucks coming from Tesla, Rivian, Ford and GM.

Zero Hedge:

• "The Fraud Was Executed By Many Means": Sidney Powell "Releases Kraken" With Dual Lawsuits In Michigan, Georgia
• YouTube Attempts To Silence The Mises Institute.
• Watch: Obama Blames Trump For His Own Border "Cages".
• Black Friday Shoppers Expected To Spend More Online Than In Stores For First Time.
• Illinois Senators Durbin and Duckworth Are Among The Book Burners Happy With Big Tech Censorship.
• Cuomo Calls Supreme Court Ruling On Churches 'Irrelevant'
• 'Kraken' Lawsuit Accuses Iran Of 'Monitoring And Manipulating' 2020 Election, Stoking Deep Dive By Journalist.
• Doctor Who Demanded Mandatory Mask Law Pictured Partying Maskless On Boat Surrounded By Bikini-Clad Women.
• Politico Exposes Secretive Consulting Firm Set To Dominate Biden Cabinet.
• Snitchgiving: Americans Are Being Urged To Report Families Gathering For The Holiday.
• "Zero Masks And Zero Concern": Underground Parties Rage In Los Angeles In Defiance Of COVID-19 Restrictions.
• Disney's Thanksgiving Present: Another 4,000 Layoffs.
• "I Humbly Ask For Your Forgiveness" - Yet Another Democrat Leader Busted Breaking His Own COVID Rules.

Newsmax:

• Newsmax/McLaughlin Poll: Two-Thirds of Nation Back Trump on Recounts.  
• Report: Trump Says He'll Exit if Electoral College Backs Biden.
• Lou Dobbs Scolds 'Dismissive' Fox News Reporter on Fraud Hearing.
• WashPost: Obama Take on Hispanic Evangelical Trump Voters Misses Mark.

@Breaking911:

• TRUMP: “I know one thing; Joe Biden did not get 80 Million votes. — I got 74 Million. 74 Million is 11 Million more than I got last time. — Joe Biden did not beat Barack Obama with the black vote.”“It was a rigged election, 100%... and people know it!” (video)

@SydneyPowell1:

• Thank You President @realDonaldTrump for Re-Tweeting this post which includes my interview with @PatrickByrne! I shared @justin_hart's data showing pattern of 4:00 AM data dumps for Biden ... Piece about clearly algorithmic addition of votes to push Biden over the top in GA and PA WATCH THIS, NOW!

The Epoch Times:

• Chinese Leader Xi Congratulates Biden As Trump Reportedly Moving to Take Tough Action Against Regime.
• Chinese Hacker Reveals How He Helped Beijing Steal Secrets From Foreign Governments, Companies.

ProtectTheVote.com: 

• Serious allegations of misconduct in the 2020 elections have resulted in unprecedented legal action to ensure our elections are -- and remain -- free and fair. Find out where we’re exposing fraud and how you can help.

HereIsTheEvidence.com:

• This is for aggregating publicly available items of voter fraud evidence in the US election that would be admissible in court.
  

Digital Blackboard:

• Daily New Cases by Region.

Worldometer:

• New Cases/Deaths by state.

Rt Covid-19:

• How fast virus is growing by state.

KFF:

• State Data(Tests/Hospitalizations).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.5% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 59.25 +.25 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 30.25 +.5 basis point.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 61.23 -.02%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 1,286.0 +23.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 22.95 +1.44%
• FTSE 100 futures -.23%.

• S&P 500 futures -.23%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.03%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• None of note
  

After the Close:

• None of note
  

Economic Releases 

• None of note

Upcoming Splits

• (MKC) 2-for-1
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Roche Diagnostics Day could also impact trading today.

Market Hours
Normal:

• 9:30 am - 1:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by financial and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:        

• Stock Rally Pauses as European Cyclicals Retreat: Markets Wrap.
• Oil Slips From 8-Month High as Rally Fizzles Out.  
• ECB’s Lane Sounds Alarm on Worrying Financing Conditions.
• AstraZeneca Faces More Vaccine Questions After Manufacturing Error.
• Astra Likely to Run Fresh Global Vaccine Trial, CEO Says.   
• Bitcoin Plunges Along With Other Coins.  
• Pro-Trump Group Donor Sues Over Failure to Expose Election Fraud. 
• Covid Vaccine Rush in China Raises Fears of Booming Black Market.
• Global Covid-19 Infections Top 60 Million.  
• Mexico Economy Grows at Record Pace With Long Recovery Ahead.

Wall Street Journal:

• With the Pandemic Surging, Millions Travel for Thanksgiving.
• A Pardon for General Flynn.
• A Progressive Assault on Selective High Schools.
• New Face Masks Relieve Pressure on N95 Supplies.
• The Dollar Is Weak. Investors Bet It Will Slide Even More.
• Social Media’s Liability Shield Is Under Assault.

CNBC: 

• Bitcoin plunges by nearly $3,000 after closing in on its all-time record.
• ByteDance has reportedly been given another week to sell off TikTok’s U.S. business.
• Disney increases layoffs to 32,000 workers as coronavirus batters its theme park business.
• The athleisure market is heating up as consumers flock to ‘comfort in uncomfortable times’.
• Salesforce is in talks to buy Slack, deal could be announced next week.
• After market’s November surge, there may be less of a chance for a big ‘Santa rally’.
• Gold to $2,500: Two ETF analysts break down Citi’s bullish call for 2021.

IG:

• Weekend Markets Trading Live.

MarketWatch.com: 

• Hospital workers called exhausted as U.S. records highest number of COVID deaths since May.

Fox News:

• PAC raising $500K for Ga. runoff Dems. Will it backfire?

Newsmax:  

• Lin Wood to Newsmax TV: Court Must Stop Certifying of Georgia Electors.
• Trump Exhorts Supporters: Don't Be Intimidated by Dems, Others.
• Dick Morris to Newsmax TV: Georgia Ignored Election Fraud Warning.  
• Tim Scott: US Will Become ‘Socialist Utopia’ If GOP Loses Georgia.

One America News Network:

• President Trump addresses Pa. Senate: I won election.
• Fight for fair election in Wis. continues.
  

Zero Hedge:

• "The Fraud Was Executed By Many Means": Sidney Powell "Releases Kraken" With Dual Lawsuits In Michigan, Georgia.
• SCOTUS Strikes Down Cuomo's Draconian Restrictions On Religious Services In New York.
• Apple Orders Foxconn To Shift Some MacBook and iPad Production From China To Vietnam.
• Futures Flat, Global Stocks Mixed In Thin Thanksgiving Trade.
• President Trump Pardons Michael Flynn.
• Biden's Gun Control Plan Would Cost Gun Owners $34 Billion In Taxes.
• Giuliani, Trump Pull Off 'One Hell Of A Hearing' On Pennsylvania Election Fraud.
• Mayo Clinic's Northwest Wisconsin Hospitals Placing Beds In Ambulance Garage, Lobbies.
• What The COVID Vaccine Hype Fails To Mention.
• A Tale Of Two Markets: Visualizing The Huge Impact Of The Covid Vaccine Across Assets.
• UPS Expands Dry Ice Production Ahead Of Vaccine Distribution.
• For What Are America's Wealthy Thankful? A Worsening Culture War: Taibbi.
• "Pandemic Of Crime" - LA Homicides Hit Decade Highs.
• Second Amendment Under Threat After New Third Circuit Decision.
• Fed, IMF Sound Warning That More QE Could Lead To "Unintended Consequences".
• The New 'Woke' Times: The Death Of News As We Once Knew It.
• Judge Blocks Certification Of 'Remaining' Pennsylvania Election Results; Boockvar Appeals To PA Supreme Court.
• Government Worker Wages Drop Most On Record.
  

@kylenabecker:

• GEORGIA. "ALL 900 military ballots in Fulton county... supposedly were 100% for Joe Biden." Wait, I'm sorry. This says all 900 military ballots in Fulton County went for Biden. ALL. 900. MILITARY. BALLOTS.

@SydneyPowell1:

• Sidney Powell Files Lawsuit in Georgia Alleging ‘Massive Election Fraud’.
• For those unfamiliar with the Dominion voting system: Dominion Executive: “Trump is not going to win. I made f***ing sure of that.” (video)

ProtectTheVote.com: 

• Serious allegations of misconduct in the 2020 elections have resulted in unprecedented legal action to ensure our elections are -- and remain -- free and fair. Find out where we’re exposing fraud and how you can help.

HereIsTheEvidence.com:

• This is for aggregating publicly available items of voter fraud evidence in the US election that would be admissible in court.
  

Digital Blackboard:

• Daily New Cases by Region.

Worldometer:

• New Cases/Deaths by state.

Rt Covid-19:

• How fast virus is growing by state.

KFF:

• State Data(Tests/Hospitalizations).

Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour on Virus Fears, Rising Jobless Claims, Technical Selling, Energy/Financial Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  

• Volume: Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 21.4 -1.3%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 1,283.0 -21.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 128.86 +.17%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.16 -.49%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 49.3 +1.6%

• ISE Sentiment Index 148.0 +35.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .64 unch.

• NYSE Arms .94 +32.4%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 512.61 +1.0%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 680.32 -.51%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 60.06 +1.5%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 118.0 unch.
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 59.72 -1.84%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 168.06 +2.2%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 179.84 +.3%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 9.5 unch.

• TED Spread 12.75 +.25 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -15.75 unch.
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  75.25 +1.75 basis points
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 70.25 unch.

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 61.22 +.41%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .08% unch.

• Yield Curve 72.25 +1.75 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 124.70 USD/Metric Tonne -2.1%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 81.4 +4.4 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 109.6 -.6 point
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 56.5 +.9 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.76 +3.0 basis points
• 100.0% chance of no change at Jan. 27th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at March 17th meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +68 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +18 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +1 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my industrial/medical sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 75% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -1.0%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver -3.1% 2) Pharma -1.2% 3) Software -.7%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• PLUG, AIR, SATS, EPAC, EIX, GRBK, PEN, LIND, CRM, MOV, VLDR, TITN, CIIC, VMW, REZI, SRG, PPL, SBE, GIII, EVOP, ARWR, PSTG, RETA, GCO, NKLA, BLNK, RVP, CRSR and GPS
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) AL 2) GNW 3) GPS 4) ADSK 5) SHAK
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) NKLA 2) GOOS 3) DRI 4) ACB 5) TCMD
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

 Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth +.4%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver +1.4% 2) Internet +1.0% 3) Homebuilding +.6%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• FSR, APPN, PLTR, WORK BCOV, JWN, VERI, RMG, ASPN, ANGO, RAD, LCA, FROG, BYSI, LE, MRNA, ATEC, LGVW, EGAN, RAPT, BALY and APXT
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) GPS 2)  3) EHC 4) FIT 5) MDLZ

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) JWN 2) ADSK 3) KFY 4) FSR 5) ZS
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Afternoon Market Internals

 NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +18.1% Above 100-Day Average
• 2 Sectors Rising, 9 Sectors Declining
• 42.4% of Issues Advancing, 55.1% Declining
• 108 New 52-Week Highs, 1 New Lows
• 84.6% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 59.8% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 1,285.0 -18.0 points
• Vix 21.6 -.1%
• Total Put/Call .64 unch.
• TRIN/Arms .89 +25.4%

Wednesday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +.75% to +1.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 59.0 -2.5 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 29.75 -2.5 basis points.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 61.0 +.05%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 1,355.0 +50.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 23.55 -.21%
• FTSE 100 futures +.76%.

• S&P 500 futures +.44%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.68%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (DE)/1.45
• (FRO)/.37
  

After the Close:

• None of note
  

Economic Releases 

8:30 am EST

• Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to fall to 730K versus 742K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 6000K versus 6372K prior.
• The Advance Goods Trade Balance for Oct. is estimated at -$80.4B versus -$79.4B in Sept. 
• Wholesale Inventories MoM for Oct. is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.4% gain in Sept.
• Retail Inventories MoM for Oct. is estimated to rise +.6% versus a +1.6% gain in Sept.
• Durable Goods Orders for Oct. is estimated to rise +.9% versus a +1.9% gain in Sept.
• Durables Ex Transports for Oct. is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.9% gain in Sept.
• Cap Goods Orders Non-Defense Ex Air for Oct. is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +1.0% gain in Sept.
  

10:00 am EST

• Personal Income for Oct. is estimated to fall -.1% versus a +.9% gain in Sept.
• Personal Spending for Oct. is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +1.4% gain in Sept.
• The PCE Core Deflator MoM for Oct. is estimated unch. versus a +.2% gain in Sept.
• New Home Sales for Oct. is estimated to rise to 975K versus 959K in Sept.
  

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory build of+214,640 barrels versus a +769,000 barrel gain the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to rise by +732,180 barrels versus a +2,611,000 barrel gain the prior week. Distillate Inventories are estimated to fall by -2,527,360 barrels versus a -5,216,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by +.66% versus a +2.9% gain prior.
  

2:00 pm EST

• Nov. 5 FOMC Meeting Minutes.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Mexico Retail Sales report and the weekly MBA Mortgage Application report could also impact trading today.

Market Hours
Normal:

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by financial and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.