Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

• US Presses Gulf Allies to Help Stem Fresh Fundraising for Hamas.
• Korea Economic Growth Holds Steady on Exports as Risks Loom.
• Australian Yields Fall as RBA Downplays Inflation Surprise.
• Yen Weakens to 33-Year Low Against US Dollar, Raising Intervention Risk.
• Brazil Congress Approves Bill to Tax the Rich, Raise Revenues.
• Nomura Redraws China Strategy, Cuts Jobs After Losses Deepen.
• US Stocks to Extend Slide, Yen Passes Key Level: Markets Wrap.
• Oil Steady After Surging as Israel Confirms Gaza Ground Invasion.
• Ford, UAW Reach Tentative Deal to End Autoworker Strike.
• NYC Mayor Warns of ‘Draconian’ Steps If Migrant Flow Continues.
• Vast Majority of Americans Are Sick of Climate Politics, Survey Finds.
• BofA’s DeMare Warns on ‘Dangerous’ Effects of Yields at 5%. 
• Bond Market’s ‘Vicious Cycle’ Risk Puts Spotlight on Fed’s QT.

Zero Hedge:

• Mike Johnson Elected House Speaker
• Israel Delays Gaza Invasion (Again) As US Scrambles To Put Missile Defenses In Place
• "Brutal Tape": Goldman, JPM Traders Share Market Carnage Thoughts From The Front Line
• Multiple Mass Shootings In Maine Town, Suspect At Large.
• Watch: Hillary Clinton Snaps At Heckler Who Blasts Her Support For "War-Mongering" Joe Biden.
• Commodity Traders And Energy Giants Are Shockingly Detached From The Unfolding Middle Eastern Crisis.
• Technical Trouble.
• Oklahoma Lawmaker Wants ATF Agents Arrested, Prosecuted After Raid On Gun Dealer.
• As Mitsubishi Exits China, Other Japanese Automakers Consider Following Suit.
• Wall Street Vol Legend "50 Cent" Unveils His Top 2024 Trade With "Extraordinary Upside".
• Blinken Told Qatar To 'Tone Down' Al Jazeera's Biased Anti-Israel Coverage.
• Mega-Jolt: The Costs & Logistics Of Plugging In EVs Are About To Become Supercharged.
• The Toxic Brew That Is Going To Create Endless Chaos In The Streets Of America.
• Nukes & Pukes: Bullion, Black Gold, & Bitcoin Jump As Bonds & Big-Tech Dump.

Wall Street Journal:

• The Disgrace of the United Nations on Israel. The Secretary-General abandons Israel, a state the U.N. helped to create.
• Democrats Won’t Let Crisis Go to Waste. With conflict overseas, the White House sees yet another opportunity to increase domestic spending. 
• Morgan Stanley Names Ted Pick as Next Chief Executive.
• Hamas Fighters Trained in Iran Before Oct. 7 Attacks.
• ‘Set It and Forget It’ 401(k)s Made You Rich. No More.
• Weapons Flood West Bank, Fuel Fears of New War Front.
• Airline Industry’s ‘Silent’ Struggle: Pilots and Mental Health.

CNBC.com:

• Meta’s ad rebound gets huge assist from China even though its services are banned there.
• Meta’s Reality Labs loses $3.7 billion in third quarter as Zuckerberg’s big bet keeps bleeding cash.
• Ford, UAW reach tentative deal to end labor strikes.
• IBM software sales up 8% as the company beats on top and bottom lines.

MarketWatch.com:

• Google’s stock sheds market cap the size of Nike in one of Wall Street’s five worst drops ever.
• The Nasdaq just fell into a correction. Now what?
• 10-, 30-year TIPS rates hit highest levels since November-December 2008.
• Facebook says Middle East war is hurting ad spending.
• Japanese yen sinks to weakest level against the dollar in a year as key BoJ meeting looms.
• Consumers are cutting back on dental visits, and that’s hammering this stock.
• ServiceNow’s stock jumps 5% on strong subscription sales.

Newsmax:

• Fla.: State Universities Must End Student Group as Pro-Hamas.
• Biden Hits Attacks by Israelis on Palestinians in West Bank.
• New Speaker Johnson's 1st Move: A Strong Show of Support for Israel.
• Rep. Kustoff: Johnson 'Right Guy at the Right Time'.

 Fox News:

• Biden admin moves to curb western states’ water supply by nearly a trillion gallons.
• Rockets hit Israel, Saudi Arabia intercepts missile barrage out of Yemen as war escalates.
• Major ticketing company removes Riley Gaines event but allows pro-Hamas listings.
• FBI has received 'criminal information' from dozens of sources on Biden family.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• 33 State Attorneys General Sue Meta Claiming Facebook, Instagram Cause Mental Illness, Body Dysmorphia.
• Grassley: FBI Received ‘Criminal Information’ From Over 40 Confidential Sources on Biden Family – FBI Washington Field Office Shut Down Reporting!
• BREAKING: House Republicans Elect Trump Ally Rep. Mike Johnson as the New Speaker of the House – 220 Votes! – DID NOT LOSE A SINGLE REPUBLICAN VOTE!
• Victor Reacts: School Bans Halloween For Being “Offensive”- They Ruin Everything!
• MUST SEE: Matt Gaetz Reveals the Dirty Details Behind the Republican Old Guard’s Attempt to Derail Mike Johnson’s Vote for House Speaker (VIDEO).
• Joe Biden Snaps at Reporter Who Asked About American Hostages During Disastrous Joint Presser with Australian Prime Minister (VIDEO).
• Beef Company CEO Stands Up To Big Pharma: “I’ll Shut Down the Company Before We Ship a Single Bag With mRNA-Injected Meat”.
• New House Speaker Mike Johnson Issues Statement Following Today’s Victory: A Commitment to Conservative Policy and Restoration of Trust.
• BREAKING: Far-Left NY Judge Engoron Threatens Trump with “Severe Sanctions” For Potentially Violating Gag Order.
• George Washington University Releases Statement on Palestinian Student Group’s Genocidal Anti-Israel Messages Projected on Campus Building.
• EXCLUSIVE: Nine of the 25 RINOs Who Voted Against Conservative Favorite Rep. Jordan Will Now Vote for Rep. Mike Johnson for House Leadership.
• Is the Switch Near? Governor Gavin Newsom Has Surprise Meeting With China President Xi Jinping (VIDEO).
• It Begins: ChatGPT Censors The Gateway Pundit’s Article about Brazilian Indigenous Political Prisoner Sererê.
• Breaking: Lt. General Mike Flynn Sues Andrew Weissmann, Nicolle Wallace and MSNBC for Knowingly Promoting Materially False and Malicious Statements.

The Epoch Times:

• ANALYSIS: An Anti-American Agenda is Behind CCP Criticism of Israel.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 987,217 Reports(+1,799 from prior week) Through September 22nd, 2023.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -1.5% to -.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 136.5 +3.75 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 83.75 +1.75 basis points.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 117.2 USD/Metric Tonne -.05%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 41.17 -.07%
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 66.4 +2.3%. 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.17 -1.0 basis point.
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.7 +1.7%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -1.10%.

• S&P 500 futures -.54%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.92%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly lower, weighed down by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to maintain losses into the afternoon.  The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Falling into Final Hour on Surging Long-Term Rates, Mid-East Regional War Fears, Earnings Outlook Worries, Tech/Gambling Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 21.2 +11.8%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .84% +12.6%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 63.8 -2.4%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 169.06 -.11%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.40 +.36%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 33.5 +19.1% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 89.0 -24.0
  

• Total Put/Call .96 +4.4%

• NYSE Arms .93 -15.5%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 80.2 +3.2%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 368.67 +.27%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 329 -1
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 100.68 +2.1% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 297.60 -1.7%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 203.0 basis points +4.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 134.2 -.2%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 238.7 +2.2%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 142.60 +.44%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.7 -.14%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -10.75 basis points +2.75 basis points
  

• TED Spread 18.25 basis points -2.0 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -24.25 +.75 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 189.0 +3.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 931.0 +1.0 basis point
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 93.0 +1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 41.2 -.11%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.46% +2.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 116.7 USD/Metric Tonne -.44%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 49.9 euros/megawatt-hour +1.3%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 52.6 +3.6 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -41.2 +2.7 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 22.7 -.3
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(146 of 500 reporting) +8.5% +6.6 percentage points
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 240.26 unch.:  Growth Rate +9.3% unch., P/E 17.5 -.2
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.10% -2.0 basis points
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(4 of 10 reporting) +22.8% +43.7 percentage points
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 268.39 +.24: Growth Rate +58.3% +.1 percentage point, P/E 27.4 -.5
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.17 -1.0 basis point
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index -.09 +7.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -16.5 basis points (2s/10s) +9.5 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +5.41% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +3.70% unch.: CPI YoY +3.32% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.44 +4.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for Dec. 13th FOMC meeting: 68.9%(-5.7 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 31st meeting: 60.6%(-4.7 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -295 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -9 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +6 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower:  On losses in my tech/industrial/transport sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my emerging market shorts
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth -1.9%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Internet -3.9% 2) Semis -3.9% 3) Gambling -3.5%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• BANC, TNDM, TDOC, TWO, NEM, FIBK, IEX, CALX, ALGN, PAYX, LAD, CRNC, INTU, MTDR, TXN, CUZ, IART, VRT, IDYA, MEDP, TTMI, NAVI, SPOT, TTMI, PII, NSC, PYPL, AVTR, XP, TRU, ALKS, ODFL, CRL, SF, CSGP, NTLA, GPN, SFNC, TMO, HIW, BIPC, SQ, BILL, CFLT, RGEN, PKX, FTV, CHX, FOUR, GOOGL, ADP, RUSHA, CSTM, PRAA, OC, NVEI, SSYS, BYD, OPCH, MKTX, ERII, LTH, AFRM, GBX, ATEC and VICR
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) BMBL 2) VRT 3) MCHP 4) WBD 5) HTZ
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) OC 2) VRT 3) SNAP 4) T 5) OTIS
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Value -.7%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Education +3.0% 2) Defense +.7% 3) Foods +.7%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• LRN, MITK, WM, RHI, COOP, PRG, MCO, MSTR and MNRO
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) HLT 2) CARR 3) Z 4) FLEX 5) WBD

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) LRN 2) GPS 3) WAB 4) EDU 5) WM
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (MO)/1.29
• (AMT)/2.41
• (ARCH)/3.25
• (BSX)/.48
• (BMY)/1.76
• (BC)/2.37
• (BG)/2.50
• (CMCSA)/.95
• (FCN)/1.84
• (HOG)/1.36
• (HAS)/1.72
• (HSY)/2.46
• (HTZ)/.68
• (HON)/2.23
• (IP)/.58
• (KDP)/.47
• (LH)/3.33
• (MAS)/.91
• (MA)/3.21
• (MDC)/1.20
• (MRK)/1.95
• (MBLY)/.17
• (NEM)/.40
• (NOC)/5.81
• (OSTK)/-.83
• (BTU)/.98
• (RS)/5.00
• (RCL)/3.46
• (STX)/-.24
• (SAH)/1.77
• (LUV)/.38
• (TSCO)/2.29
• (TPH)/.57
• (UPS)/1.52
• (VLO)/7.47
• (VC)/1.92
• (VMC)/2.29
  

After the Close: 

• (AB)/.62
• (AMZN)/.59
• (SAM)/4.07
• (COF)/3.24
• (CSL)/4.58
• (CLS)/.60
• (CMG)/10.55
• (CUZ)/.65
• (DECK)/4.43
• (FE)/.85
• (F)/.46
• (HIG)/1.97
• (INTC)/.22
• (JNPR)/.55
• (LHX)/3.03
• (MHK)/2.65
• (SKYW)/.40
• (TEX)/1.72
• (X)/1.12
• (WY)/.34 
• (FCFS)/1.38
• (LEA)/2.61
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Advance Goods Trade Balance for Sept. is estimated to widen to -$86.0B versus -$84.6B in Aug.
• Wholesale Inventories MoM for Sept. is estimated to rise +.1% versus a -.1% decline in Aug.
• Retail Inventories MoM for Sept. is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +1.1% gain in Aug.
• Advance 3Q GDP Annualized QoQ is estimated to rise +4.5% versus a +2.1% gain in 2Q.
• Advance 3Q Personal Consumption is estimated to rise +4.0% versus a +.8% gain in 2Q.
• Advance 3Q GDP Price Index is estimated to rise +2.7% versus a +1.7% gain in 2Q.
• Advance 3Q PCE Price Index QoQ is estimated to rise +2.5% versus a +3.7% gain in 2Q.
• Durable Goods Orders for Sept. is estimated to rise +1.8% versus a +.1% gain in Aug.
• Durables Ex Transports for Sept. is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.4% gain in Aug.
• Cap Goods Orders Non-Defense Ex-Air for Sept. is estimated unch. versus a +.9% gain in Aug. 
• Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to rise to 207K versus 198K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims are estimated to rise to 1740K versus 1734K prior.
  

10:00 am EST

• Pending Home Sales MoM for Sept. is estimated to fall -2.0% versus a -7.1% decline in Aug.
  

11:00 am EST

• Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity for Oct. is estimated n/a versus -8.0 in Sept.
  

Upcoming Splits 

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The 7Y T-Note auction, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report and the (HAIN) general meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• NYSE Volume Running -5.1% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 8.8 unch.
  
• 8 Sectors Declining, 3 Sectors Rising
• 30.6% of Issues Advancing, 66.8% Declining
• 7 New 52-Week Highs, 280 New Lows
• 27.0%(-3.3%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 36.0 -1
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 65.3 -.1%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 18,051.4 -.73%
  
• 1-Day Vix 14.5 -9.9%
  
• Vix 19.6 +3.2%
  
• Total Put/Call .91 -1.1%
• TRIN/Arms .77 -30.0%
  

Wednesday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.5% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 132.75 -3.5 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 82.0 -3.75 basis points.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 116.9 USD/Metric Tonne +.65%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 41.24 -.2%
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 66.7 +2.0%. 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.14 +2.0 basis points.
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 19.3 +.9%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.2%.

• S&P 500 futures -.19%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.35%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Earnings Outlook Optimism, Less European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Short-Covering, Tech/Utility Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 19.6 -3.8%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .75% -13.2%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 63.8 -3.0%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 169.2 -.64%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.36 -1.18%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 29.99 -.2% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 111.0 +9.0
  

• Total Put/Call .89 -2.2%

• NYSE Arms 1.10 -.90%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 77.91 -2.1%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 370.4 -2.6%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 330 -10
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 98.64 -1.26% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 302.8 -2.1%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 199.0 basis points +2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 134.4 -2.5%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 236.2 -1.6%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 141.75 -2.2%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.74 +.34%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -13.5 basis points -.5 basis point
  

• TED Spread 20.25 basis points +1.0 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -25.5 +1.5 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 186.0 -4.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 930.0 +22.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 92.0 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 41.24 unch.
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.44% -1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 117.0 USD/Metric Tonne +.7%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 49.26 euros/megawatt-hour -3.9%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 49.0 +.3 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -43.9 -15.0 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 23.0 +.3
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(118 of 500 reporting) +1.9% -.3 percentage point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 240.26 -.02:  Growth Rate +9.3% unch., P/E 17.7 +.1
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.12% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(2 of 10 reporting) -20.9% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 268.15 +.26: Growth Rate +58.2% +.2 percentage point, P/E 27.9 +.2
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.20 +6.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index -.16 +6.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -26.0 basis points (2s/10s) -3.0 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +5.41% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +3.70% unch.: CPI YoY +3.32% -4.0 basis points
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.40 unch.
  
• Highest target rate probability for Dec. 13th FOMC meeting: 75.0%(+.2 percentage point) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 31st meeting: 65.7%(+1.6 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +168 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +189 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +88 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher:  On gains in my utility/tech/industrial sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 50% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +.2%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Road & Rail -1.5% 2) Construction -1.3% 3) Regional Banks -1.1%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• MOH, SOVO, TD, TWO, ADM, FMC, HCA, SYF, PNR, PPBI, ZGN, EFX, TECK, TFII, HXL, CCCS, XRX, IONQ, CALX, TRU and TBI
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) STNE 2) CFG 3) VNET 4) RVMD 5) BXMT
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) TRU 2) TBI 3) BBWI 4) META 5) DFS
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +.8%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Computer Hardware +2.8% 2) Steel +2.2% 3) Utilities +2.1%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• AMAM, MEDP, NEP, MSTR, RVMD, RIOT, IMGN, VZ, SMPL, COIN, RTX, WRB, SEE, GE, CCK, CADE, FI, CXW, IVZ and EVRI
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) STNE 2) MERC 3) COMM 4) PLD 5) MAT

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) AGYS 2) TZOO 3) MASN 4) RTX 5) RIOT
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (ADP)/2.02
• (AVY)/2.10
• (BA)/-3.18
• (CME)/2.22
• (GD)/2.91
• (GPI)/11.48
• (HES)/1.22
• (HLT)/1.66
• (MNRO)/.40
• (MCO)/2.30
• (NSC)/2.69
• (ODFL)/2.92
• (OTIS)/.88
• (OC)/3.89
• (R)/3.22
• (TMO)/5.61
  

After the Close: 

• (AEM)/.43
• (ALGN)/2.26
• (AVB)/2.63
• (BKR)/.40
• (CACI)/4.55
• (CP)/.92
• (CYH)/-.16
• (EW)/.59
• (ETD)/.72
• (FLEX)/.58
• (FLS)/.43
• (GGG)/.73
• (IBM)/2.12
• (IEX)/1.89
• (KLAC)/5.37
• (LSTR)/1.71
• (META)/3.64
• (MYRG)/1.30
• (OII)/.32
• (ORLY)/10.41
• (PPC)/.42
• (RJF)/2.27
• (NOW)/2.56
• (TER)/.73
• (URI)/11.23
• (UHS)/2.37
• (VMI)/3.75
• (WHR)/4.27
• (WH)/1.24
  

Economic Releases

10:00 am EST

• New Home Sales for Sept. is estimated to rise to 680K versus 675K in Aug.
  

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -477,330 barrels versus a -4,491,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -722,000 barrels versus a -2,370,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -1,029,830 barrels versus a -3,185,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by +.73% versus a +.4% gain prior.
  

Upcoming Splits 

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The 5Y T-Note auction, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, (BIIB) Clinical Trials on Alzheimer Disease Meeting and the (NOW) mgmt meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• NYSE Volume Running +3.7% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 8.8 -.4
  
• 1 Sector Declining, 10 Sectors Rising
• 71.8% of Issues Advancing, 25.9% Declining
• 6 New 52-Week Highs, 114 New Lows
• 28.8%(+8.2%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 37.0 +2
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 64.3 -2.3%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 18,125.2 -.05%
  
• 1-Day Vix 13.9 -15.1%
  
• Vix 19.7 -3.5%
  
• Total Put/Call .82 -9.9%
• TRIN/Arms 1.18 +6.3%
  

Tuesday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.5% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 136.25 -1.25 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 85.75 -1.25 basis points.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 111.9 USD/Metric Tonne -.73%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 41.27 +.06%
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 66.5 +1.1%. 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.29 -8.0 basis points.
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 19.9 -.5%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.35%.

• S&P 500 futures +.18%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.19%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.