Friday, April 19, 2024

Weekly Scoreboard*


S&P 500 4,967.2 -3.1%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly Market Wrap by Edward Jones.

Indices

  • DJIA 37,986.4 +.01%
  • NASDAQ 15,282.0 -5.5%
  • Russell 2000 1,947.7 -2.8%
  • NYSE FANG+ 9,294.8 -8.3%
  • Goldman 50 Most Shorted 145.0 -4.5%
  • Wilshire 5000 49,246.6 -3.1%
  • Russell 1000 Growth 3,184.3 -4.9%
  • Russell 1000 Value 1,677.8 -.9%
  • S&P 500 Consumer Staples 792.9 +1.4%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Pair Index 141.4 -2.0%
  • NYSE Technology 4,410.0 -6.6%
  • Transports 15,069.0 -2.7%
  • Utilities 875.4 +2.5%
  • Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 101.79 +.47%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets 39.8 -2.2%
  • Credit Suisse AllHedge Long/Short Equity Index 209.55 +.28%
  • Credit Suisse AllHedge Equity Market Neutral Index 109.70 +.17%
Sentiment/Internals
  • NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 486,641 -1.5%
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 8.8 +20.5%
  • Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -387 -350
  • Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -36.2 +.94%
  • CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 297,137 -1.3%
  • CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,726,094 +.25%
  • Total Put/Call 1.05 +22.1%
  • OEX Put/Call .99 -36.8%
  • ISE Sentiment 103.0 +1.0 point
  • NYSE Arms .89 -58.7%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 65.9 -2.9%
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .92 -23.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg European Financial Conditions Index .69 -31.0 basis points
  • Volatility(VIX) 19.1 +7.9%
  • DJIA Intraday % Swing .85 -26.7%
  • CBOE S&P 500 3M Implied Correlation Index 23.8 +21.5%
  • G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 7.5 -1.7%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 7.4 +2.2%
  • Smart Money Flow Index 17,470.4 +3.2%
  • NAAIM Exposure Index  63.0 -19.9
  • ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $5.968 Trillion -1.8%
  • ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows -$3.510 Million
  • AAII % Bulls 38.3 -11.8%
  • AAII % Bears 34.0 +41.7%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 31.0 (FEAR) -16.0
Futures Spot Prices
  • CRB Index 298.15 +.02%
  • Crude Oil 83.4/bbl. -2.9%
  • Reformulated Gasoline 271.4 -3.2%
  • Natural Gas 1.76 -.96%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 30.76 euros/megawatt-hour -.1%
  • Heating Oil 254.77 -5.2% 
  • Newcastle Coal 141.0 (1,000/metric ton) +6.8%
  • Gold 2,394.6 +2.2%
  • Silver 28.77 +3.1%
  • S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Index 470.39 +3.3%
  • Copper 449.7 +4.1%
  • US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 390.0 USD/Metric Tonne +1.3%
  • China Iron Ore Spot 116.2 USD/Metric Tonne +3.4%
  • CME Lumber  510.0 -5.6%
  • UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,487.9 -.64%
  • US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 307.50 USD/Short Ton unch.
Economy
  • Atlanta Fed GDPNow 1Q Forecast +2.9% +50.0 basis points
  • NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index 2.0 +26.4%
  • US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 75.5 -56.6%
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(70 of 500 reporting) +9.4% -12.5 percentage points
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 252.45 +.88:  Growth Rate +13.1% +.4 percentage point, P/E 19.9 -.8
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.86% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(1 of 10 reporting) +78.2% n/a
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 313.98 +.96: Growth Rate +30.7% +.4 percentage point, P/E 30.8 -2.0
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 33.1 -6.4 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 32.4 -2.2 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 29.2 +.2 point
  • Fed Fund Futures imply 3.9%(-2.0 percentage points) chance of -25.0 basis point cut to 5.0-5.25%, 96.1%(+2.0 percentage points) chance of no change, 0.0%(unch.) chance of +25.0 basis point hike to 5.5-5.75% on 5/1
  • US Dollar Index 106.2 +.2%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,713.0 -.20%
  • Bitcoin/USD 64,257.7 +.62%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 179.1 +1.0%
  • Yield Curve(2s/10s) -35.75 +2.5 basis points
  • 10-Year US Treasury Yield 4.61% +11.0 basis points
  • Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $7.370 Trillion -.44%
  • Federal Reserve's Discount Window Usage $5.852 Billion +18.8%
  • Federal Reserve's Bank Term Funding Program $125.706 Billion -.5%
  • U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 40.28 +.95%
  • Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 184.84 -3.7%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 143.0 +3.0 basis points
  • UK Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 27.48 +.84%
  • China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 71.93 -1.3%
  • Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 162.6 +6.1%
  • Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 140.9 +5.1%
  • South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 40.2 +1.3%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.5 -.06%
  • China High-Yield Real Estate Total Return Index 90.63 -1.6%
  • Atlanta Fed Low Skill Wage Growth Tracker YoY +5.5% unch.
  • Zillow US All Homes Rent Index YoY +3.7% +10.0 basis points
  • US Urban Consumers Food CPI YoY +2.2% unch.
  • CPI Core Services Ex-Shelter YoY +5.0% unch.
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.74% unch.: CPI YoY +3.46% +3.0 basis points
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 4.31% n/a
  • Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 7.5 basis points -27.0 basis points
  • 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -9.5 -1.75 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -5.5 -.25 basis point
  • N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 57.1 +4.2%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 130.0 +11.8
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 274.0 -1.0
  • European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 68.28 +1.9%
  • Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 196.8 +1.1%
  • Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 183.7 +4.2%
  • MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 152.0 +2.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 772.0 +1.0 basis point
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS .58 +2.0 basis points
  • M2 Money Supply YoY % Change -1.7% unch.
  • Commercial Paper Outstanding $1,311.8B -1.40%
  • 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 214,500 unch.
  • Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.2% unch.
  • Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 49.9 +3.9%
  • Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 7.40% -1.0 basis point
  • Weekly Mortgage Applications 202,100 +3.3%
  • Weekly Retail Sales +4.90% +70.0 basis points
  • OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change YoY -5.0% +6.0 percentage points
  • Box Office Weekly Gross $126.8M n/a
  • Nationwide Gas $3.68/gallon +.05/gallon
  • Baltic Dry Index 1,901.0 +10.0%
  • Drewry World Container Freight Index $2,718.5/40 ft Box -2.7%
  • China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 2,718.5 -2.7%
  • Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 40.0 unch.
  • Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 57.4 -1.9%
  • Rail Freight Carloads 258,082 +7.1%
  • TSA Total Traveler Throughput 2,687,379 +23.2%
Best Performing Style
  • Large-Cap Value -.7%
Worst Performing Style
  •  Large-Cap Growth -4.6%
Leading Sectors
  • Airlines +4.3%
  • Healthcare Providers +3.1%
  • Banks +1.7%
  • Foods +1.7%
  • Insurance +1.6%
Lagging Sectors
  • Computer Hardware -6.0%
  • Gambling -6.0%
  • Homebuilding -8.0%
  • Alt Energy -8.3%
  • Semis -9.0%
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (11)
  • MNDR, PARA, UGI, CLSK, HE, FITB, FJT, AXP, PBR, WAL and ALVO
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (32)
  • PPG, NTRA, TSM, ROAD, AXTA, TMDX, INSM, CART, MEG, ZTS, META, FYBR, SPOT, ELVN, OI, ELF, CAMT, VRT, CLS, NVDA, SAVA, JBL, IMNM, NFLX, BHVN, LI, IART, CGEM, ARM and SMCI
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change

Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (ACI)/.52
  • (AZZ)/.70
  • (TFC)/.78
  • (VZ)/1.12
  • (ZION)/.95
After the Close: 
  • (BRO)/1.07
  • (CDNS)/1.13
  • (CALX)/.20
  • (CLF)/.22
  • (CR)/1.13
  • (HXL)/.42
  • (NUE)/3.67
  • (PKG)/1.68
  • (PNFP)/1.54
  • (SAP)/1.06
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • The Chicago Fed National Activity Index for March.

Upcoming Splits 

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Maxim Group Mining/Processing Conference, (HBI) annual meeting, (CR) annual meeting, (HPQ) annual meeting, (CUZ) annual meeting, (AVGO) annual meeting, (FSS) annual meeting and the (CHTR) annual meeting could also impact global trading on Monday.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running -12.7% Below 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 9.1 -4.9
  • 4 Sectors Declining, 7 Sectors Rising
  • 74.7% of Issues Advancing, 22.6% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms 1.04 +48.6%
  • Non-Block Money Flow +$51.8M
  • 10 New 52-Week Highs, 22 New Lows
  • 51.5% (+3.3%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 36.0 -1.0
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 64.4 -2.4%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Pair Index 142.3 -.2%
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 18,731.2 -1.5%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 32.0 (Fear) -5.0
  • 1-Day Vix 15.7 -2.6%
  • Vix 18.6 +3.2%
  • Total Put/Call 1.0 -4.8%

Thursday, April 18, 2024

Friday Watch

Night Trading 

  • Asian equity indices are -1.5% to -.5% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 113.25 -.25 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 71.25 unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 114.6 USD/Metric Tonne -1.9%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.1 -.1%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 67.5 +2.3%.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 17.6 +1.4%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.88%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.37%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.52%.  
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly lower, weighed down by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to maintain losses into the afternoon.  The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Slightly Lower into Final Hour on Rising Long-Term Rates, Diminishing Fed Rate-Cut Odds, Earnings Outlook Worries, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Slightly Higher
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 18.0 -1.4%
  • DJIA Intraday % Swing 1.06 +23.4%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 65.7 -.9%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 179.1 -.03%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.4 unch.
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 22.2 +2.6% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 118.0 +31.0
  • Total Put/Call 1.05 -11.8%
  • NYSE Arms .88 +1.2%
  • NYSE Non-Block Money Flow -$5.5M 
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 57.8 -.12%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 286.9 -.65%
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 263 -2
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 68.5 -1.8%
  • Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 197.4 -1.2%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 143.0 basis points -2.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 113.7 -1.1%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 184.7 +.5%
  • Israel Sovereign CDS 145.4 +.03%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.5 +.09%
  • 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -9.25 basis points -.5 basis point
  • Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 10.25 basis points +1.5 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -4.5 unch.
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 150.0 +1.0 basis point
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 773.0 +1.0 basis point
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS 58.0 +1.0 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.1 -.11%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.40% unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 114.8 USD/Metric Tonne -1.8%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 32.3 euros/megawatt-hour +3.3%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 33.4 +2.8 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 33.0 -.5 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 28.9 -.7 point
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(61 of 500 reporting) +8.4% -1.2 percentage points
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 252.21 -.03:  Growth Rate +13.0% unch., P/E 20.0 +.1
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.85% -1.0 basis point
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) +n/a
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 313.66 +.08: Growth Rate +30.5% unch., P/E 31.1 -.1
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .90 -1.0 basis point
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .66 +9.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve -34.5 basis points (2s/10s) unch.
  • US Atlanta Fed 1Q GDPNow Forecast +2.9% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 42.0% unch.
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.74% unch.: CPI YoY +3.46% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.41 +2.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for June 12th FOMC meeting: 84.8%(+3.0 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for July 31st meeting: 58.5%(+3.7 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -310 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -7 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +99 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Lower:  On losses in my tech sector longs and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 25% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Large-Cap Growth -.1%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Gambling -2.5% 2) Semis -1.6% 3) Steel -1.3%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • ROAD, MU, BIO, BHVN, CDNS, TSLA, UHS, ADSK, BJ, TRML, BRKR, STVN, ITCI, FR, THC, CSIQ, SNA, SNV, KYTX, EFX, RTO, LVS, FOR and EYPT
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) XLI 2) LVS 3) JBLU 4) HTZ 5) CART
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) SNV 2) EFX 3) PRI 4) HCA 5) INOD
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) SMH 2) XLY 3) XLE 4) ITB 5) XLB

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Small-Cap Value +.7%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Airlines +2.5% 2) Insurance +1.2% 3) Homebuilders +1.2%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • DJT, CLSK, MEG, GPC, BCYC, GCT, DUOL, ALLY, OSCR, MAN, SNAP, IRDM, DAWN, LFMD, EH, MSTR, ALK, BSY, UAL, ERO, DT, EL, MUX, OZK, LBRT, MWA and COF
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) CL 2) CAN 3) GLW 4) XLI 5) IP
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) MIGI 2) BMI 3) GPC 4) DUOL 5) IRDM
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) XLP 2) VGT 3) IYW 4) XRT 5) XLI
Charts:

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (AXP)/2.95
  • (FITB)/.68
  • (HBAN)/.24
  • (PG)/1.42
  • (RF)/.45
  • (SLB)/.75
After the Close: 
  • None of note
Economic Releases
9:00 am EST
  • Bloomberg April US Economic Survey.

Upcoming Splits 

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Goolsbee speaking, IMF meetings, US Baker Hughes Rig Count, CFTC speculative net positioning reports, (AMN) annual meeting and the (WH) annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running -18.7% Below 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 14.0 +3.1
  • 0 Sectors Declining, 11 Sectors Rising
  • 69.6% of Issues Advancing, 27.8% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms 1.06 +21.8%
  • Non-Block Money Flow +$184.1M
  • 8 New 52-Week Highs, 36 New Lows
  • 51.6% (+1.5%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 37.0 +4.0
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 65.7 -1.6%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Pair Index 143.4 +.4%
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 19,108.9 -.2%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 37.0 (Fear) -1.0
  • 1-Day Vix 13.7 -2.9%
  • Vix 17.3 -4.8%
  • Total Put/Call .98 -17.7%

Wednesday, April 17, 2024

Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines

CNBC.com:

TheGatewayPundit.com: 

The Epoch Times:

X:
  • @JackPosobiec
  • @CharlieKirk11
  • @AmericnHubener
  • @BGatesIsaPsycho 
  • @JoshWalkos
  • @robbystarbuck
  • Dubai airport looks like an apocalyptic movie. Videos of the flooding are insane. I’ve seen some blaming climate change when the cause is actually from the use of weather modification. Cloud seeding where chemicals are sprayed in clouds to create rain caused this. We recently banned this practice in my home state of Tennessee. Anytime you modify the weather you open yourself up to unintended consequences. (video)
  • @JohnStossel
  • @Ostrov_A
  • @ForsigeNews
  • @WallStreetSilv
  • @MarioNawfal
  • TELEGRAM FOUNDER: THE U.S. TRIED TO HIRE MY EMPLOYEE TO HELP THEM SPY ON USERS. Tucker: "The US government tried to secretly hire your engineer?" Doruv: "That's what he told me. They wanted him to code open-source tools into the app that would serve as backdoors." Tucker: "It would allow the US to spy on Telegram users?" Durov: "The US government, or maybe any other government, because a backdoor is a backdoor to anyone." (video)
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.5% to +.5% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 113.5 -1.0 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 71.25 -2.0 basis points.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 116.7 USD/Metric Tonne +1.1%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.2 -.05%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 67.3 +1.5%.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 17.1 -.6%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.16%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.12%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.23%.  
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by industrial and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.