Thursday, June 06, 2024

Friday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

Zerohedge:  

Wall Street Journal: 

CNBC.com:

Newsmax:  
Fox News:  
TheGatewayPundit.com:

The Epoch Times:

Around X:
  • @wideawake_media
  • @kenklippenstein
  •  @robbystarbuck
  • @VigilantFox
  • @nicksortor
  • @WallStreetApes 
  • @Ultrafrog17
  • @TheChiefNerd
  • @WallStreetSilv
  • The WHO is running a scam on Bird Flu. 1) He died on April 24th 2) He was in the hospital for 3 weeks bedridden already for other reasons. 3) He likely died of those causes, not Bird Flu They used a PCR test which have been widely criticized as set so sensitive that many result in false positives. So they can now claim in headlines, "He died with Bird Flu" even though he probably didn't. Dying WITH Bird Flu (false positive PCR test) is very different that dying FROM Bird Flu.
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are unch. to +1.0% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 96.5 +1.0 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 64.25 +1.25 basis points.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 111.1 USD/Metric Tonne +2.3%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.6 -.03%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 62.5 -.2%.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 14.3 -.12%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.02%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.01%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.10%.  
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by technology and healthcare shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour on US Economic Data, Sector Rotation, Technical Selling, Alt Energy/Homebuilding Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 12.7 +.4%
  • DJIA Intraday % Swing .68 +1.8%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 62.5 -.8%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 185.5 unch.
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.2 +.1%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 11.8 unch. 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 148.0 +20.0
  • Total Put/Call .99 +7.6%
  • NYSE Arms .81 -27.2%
  • NYSE Non-Block Money Flow -$194.8M 
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 50.4 +1.0%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 274.4 +1.1%
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 300 +7
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 58.7 +.2%
  • Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 163.3 unch.
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 132.0 basis points +1.0 basis point
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 96.5 +.7%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 166.7 +2.1%
  • Israel Sovereign CDS 121.8 -1.3%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.8 unch.
  • 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -11.75 basis points -1.0 basis point
  • Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 7.0 basis points unch.
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -1.75 unch.
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 142.0 +3.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 732.0 -2.0 basis points
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS 57.0 -1.0 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.6 +.2%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.39% unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 111.8 USD/Metric Tonne +2.8%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 33.7 euros/megawatt-hour +1.0%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -9.9 -2.3 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 26.1 -1.4 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 9.4 -2.4 points
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(497 of 500 reporting) +7.8% unch.
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 258.18 +.09:  Growth Rate +13.2% unch., P/E 20.7 unch.
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.85% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(9 of 10 reporting) +52.9% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 330.29 +.12: Growth Rate +23.2% +.1 percentage point, P/E 32.2 +.2
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.00 +6.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .99 +5.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve -44.0 basis points (2s/10s) +.5 basis point
  • US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +2.6% +80.0 basis points
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 53.7% +2.2 percentage points
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.69% unch.: CPI YoY +3.36% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.29 -2.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for July 31st FOMC meeting: 79.4%(-1.1 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 18th meeting: 56.9%(-.3 percentage point) chance of 5.0%-5.25%.
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -58 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -29 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +23 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Lower:  On losses in my industrial/tech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Small-Cap Growth -.8%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Alt Energy -1.7% 2) Homebuilding -1.2% 3) Airlines -1.0%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • BTSG, AMBC, DX, NVAX, VERX, UBI, CAVA, VRT, FIVE, LIVN, LPG, GIII, BASE and ZIM
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) FIVE 2) URA 3) ITUB 4) DOCU 5) HTZ
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) BIG 2) NIO 3) HOFT 4) ZIM 5) FIVE
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) XLF 2) VCR 3) XLP 4) XRT 5) IBB

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Large-Cap Growth -.1%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Gold & Silver +3.1% 2) Video Gaming +1.5% 3) Internet +1.1%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • GME, SMAR, HALO, XPOF, UNFI, IREN, TTC, ILMN, CART, AHCO, NUVL, IRTC, HOOD, RIOT, SVCO, RELY, PYPL, ERII, LULU, HUT, ESTC, VRNT, CRC, SJM, LEGN, AEHR, NICE, PSLV, PATH, UBER, MKTX, PLTR and CWAN
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) ITUB 2) XLB 3) KKR 4) EWW 5) MCHP
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) GME 2) VNDA 3) CORZ 4) SMAR 5) CART
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) SMH 2) IGV 3) XLV 4) XLI 5) KRE
Charts:

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • None of note
After the Close: 
  • None of note
Economic Releases

8:30 am EST:

  • The Change in Non-Farm Payrolls for May is estimated to rise to 185K versus 175K in April.
  • The Unemployment Rate for May is estimated at 3.9% versus 3.9% in April.
  • Average Hourly Earnings MoM for May is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.2% gain in April.

10:00 am EST

  • Wholesale Trade Sales MoM for April is estimated to rise +.5% versus a -1.3% decline in March.

12:00 pm EST

  • Household Change in Net Worth for 1Q.

3:00 pm EST

  • Consumer Credit for April is estimated to rise to $10.0B versus $6.27B in March.

Upcoming Splits 

  • (NVDA) 10-for-1
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Cook speaking, US Baker Hughes weekly rig count, CFTC speculative net position reports, Goldman Sachs Healthcare Conference, (GRMN) annual meeting, (ANET) annual meeting, (GOOG) annual meeting, (DLR) annual meeting and the (SAVE) annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running -14.4% Below 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 11.7 -.5
  • 6 Sectors Declining, 5 Sectors Rising
  • 41.7% of Issues Advancing, 55.9% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms .85 -25.4%
  • Non-Block Money Flow -$181.7M
  • 74 New 52-Week Highs, 27 New Lows
  • 57.2% (-.8%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 51.0 +1.0
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 62.9 -.3%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 233.9 -.01%
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 19,976.3 +.16%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 44.0 (FEAR) -1.0
  • 1-Day Vix 11.6 +23.3%
  • Vix 12.9 +1.8%
  • Total Put/Call 1.20 +30.4%

Wednesday, June 05, 2024

Thursday Watch

Around X:

  • @libsoftiktok
  • @wideawake_media
  • @VigilantFox 
  • @WallStreetApes 
  • @MJTruthUltra
  • @WarClandestine
  • @DrAseemMalhotra
  • @ImMeme0
  • @CollinRugg
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 95.5 unch.
  • China Sovereign CDS 63.0 +.75 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 107.6 USD/Metric Tonne +.8%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.6 -.05%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 63.3 +.4%.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 14.4 -.31%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.42%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.02%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.05%.  
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Surging into Final Hour on Falling Long-Term Rates, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Short-Covering, Tech/Construction Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 12.8 -2.9%
  • DJIA Intraday % Swing .67 -33.7%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 63.1 -.9%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 185.5 +.7%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.2 -1.0%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 12.2 -6.9% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 127.0 +34.0
  • Total Put/Call .87 -8.4%
  • NYSE Arms 1.14 -29.6%
  • NYSE Non-Block Money Flow +$235.7M 
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 49.9 -1.4%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 271.6 +.35%
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 293 +17
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 58.6 -.15%
  • Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 163.3 -.17%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 131.0 basis points -3.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 95.9 +1.0%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 163.4 -1.2%
  • Israel Sovereign CDS 123.3 -1.6%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.8 unch.
  • 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -10.75 basis points -.25 basis point
  • Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 7.0 basis points -.25 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -1.75 +.25 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 139.0 -4.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 734.0 unch.
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS 58.0 +3.0 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.6 +.3%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.39% -1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 107.4 USD/Metric Tonne +.6%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 33.4 euros/megawatt-hour -1.3%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -7.6 +4.2 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 27.5 +.4 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 11.8 -1.1 points
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(495 of 500 reporting) +7.8% unch.
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 258.09 +.15:  Growth Rate +13.2% +.1 percentage point, P/E 20.7 +.3
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.85% -2.0 basis points
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(9 of 10 reporting) +52.9% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 330.17 +.30: Growth Rate +23.1% +.1 percentage point, P/E 32.0 +.6
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .94 -3.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .94 -7.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve -44.5 basis points (2s/10s) -.75 basis point
  • US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +1.8% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 51.5% +2.4 percentage points
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.69% unch.: CPI YoY +3.36% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.31 -1.0 basis point
  • Highest target rate probability for July 31st FOMC meeting: 81.2%(-1.2 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 18th meeting: 58.7%(+2.3 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%.
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +455 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -34 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +101 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher:  On gains in my tech/biotech/financial/consumer discretionary/industrial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Large-Cap Value +.3%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Utilities -.8% 2) Foods -.4% 3) Agriculture -.4%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • FIVE, CWH, CSTM, DLTR, FIVN, BF/B, MDGL, NICE and AMBC
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) MBLY 2) XLB 3) CORZ 4) HPE 5) X
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) MNMD 2) PLUG 3) ATAI 4) VFS 5) RIOT
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) PSI 2) PKB 3) IGV 4) XLY 5) XRT

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Small-Cap Growth +1.9%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Semis +4.1% 2) Computer Hardware +3.5% 3) Construction +2.4%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • VRNT, NVAX, GWRE, VIR, GH, SG, ACLS, HPE, ACMR, TWST, CRWD, REVG, CYTK, MMYT, OLLI, AEHR, PTGX, BROS, VECO, GME, ESTA, WGS, ASML, FTRE, IMTX, ZIM, UPST, WING, BLBD, ASPN, TSM, MKSI, VRT, AKRO, NTES, ARM, AKRO, RMBS, DESP, AMSC, HDB, SBS, CEG, SMCI, AZTA, CELH, FSLR, OSCR, OSCR, CNM, ZS, MGNI, GFL, BBWI, WIX, CYBR, NOW, ILMN, YPF, QCOM, CLH, LEGN, AMD, ATHM, THC, LBTYA, NCLH, NBXG, CMRE and CIEN
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) SFIX 2) SBLK 3) VZIO 4) CRWD 5) HPE
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) WKME 2) VRNT 3) DDD 4) GWRE 5) VIR
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) XLU 2) XLV 3) XLI 4) XBI 5) SMH
Charts:

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (ABM)/.79
  • (BIG)-3.92
  • (CIEN)/.15
  • (GIII)/-.03
  • (SJM)/2.35
  • (TTC)/1.29
After the Close: 
  • (DOCU)/.79
  • (MTN)/10.00
  • (ZUMZ)/-1.14
  • (RH)/-.14
Economic Releases
7:30 am EST
  • Challenger Job Cuts YoY for May.

8:30 am EST:

  • 1Q Productivity/Unit Labor Cost revisions.
  • The Trade Deficit for April is estimated to widen to -$76.5B versus -$69.4B in March.
  • Initial Jobless Claims for last week is estimated to rise to 220K versus 219K the prior week.
  • Continuing Claims is estimated to fall to 1790K versus 1791K prior.

Upcoming Splits 

  • (NVDA) 10-for-1
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Atlanta Fed GDPNow 2Q update, weekly Fed balance sheet report, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, (NFLX) annual meeting, (TOST) annual meeting, (LYFT) investor day, (ASO) annual meeting, (TDW) annual meeting, (TT) annual meeting, (MOS) annual meeting, (EME) annual meeting, (FANG) annual meeting, (LULU) annual meeting, Baird Consumer Tech/Services Conference, BofA Tech Conference, Jefferies Healthcare Conference, TD Financial Services/Fintech Summit and the Deutsche Bank Consumer Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Afternoon Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running -9.9% Below 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 12.2 +1.0
  • 3 Sectors Declining, 8 Sectors Rising
  • 61.9% of Issues Advancing, 36.5% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms 1.17 -27.8%
  • Non-Block Money Flow +$194.2M
  • 72 New 52-Week Highs, 41 New Lows
  • 57.1% (+2.0%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 50.0 +5.0
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 63.2 -.7%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 233.4 +.7%
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 19,907.7 +1.15%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 45.0 (NEUTRAL) +4.0
  • 1-Day Vix 9.5 -10.6%
  • Vix 12.8 -2.6%
  • Total Put/Call .85 -10.5%