Weekly Scoreboard*

S&P 500 5,970.3 -1.2%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly Market Wrap by Edward Jones.

Indices

• DJIA 42,152.4 -1.8%

• NASDAQ 19,429.2 -1.1%

• Russell 2000 2,109.4 -1.4%

• NYSE FANG+ 14,072.4 -1.2%

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 193.1 +.2%

• Wilshire 5000 58,901.6 -1.2%

• Russell 1000 Growth 4,068.7 -1.5%

• Russell 1000 Value 1,865.7 -.9%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 890.5 -1.4%

• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index(Ex Telecom) 240.7 -.1%
  

• NYSE Technology 5,910.8 -1.0%

• Transports 14,728.2 -1.1%

• Utilities 1,037.8 -.4%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 140.47 -.8%
  

• MSCI Emerging Markets 46.5 -2.9%

• Credit Suisse AllHedge Long/Short Equity Index 224.8 +2.1%

• Credit Suisse AllHedge Equity Market Neutral Index 125.4 +.3%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 552,496 -.2%
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 9.0 -30.2%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 127 -489

• Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -20.4 -9.9%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 191,941 +14.3%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 2,017,212 +.34%

• Total Put/Call .86 -5.56%

• OEX Put/Call 1.03 -.05%

• ISE Sentiment 147.0 +8.0

• NYSE Arms .79 -41.8%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 69.9 +5.0%
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .04 -36.0 basis points
• Bloomberg European Financial Conditions Index 1.18 -1.0 basis point 
  

• Volatility(VIX) 24.0 +13.1%
• S&P 500 Intraday % Swing .99 -6.2%

• CBOE S&P 500 3M Implied Correlation Index 23.1 +16.6%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 8.57 -2.6%
  

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 8.0 unch.

• Smart Money Flow Index 22,816.9 -.63%
• NAAIM Exposure Index  94.1 +11.4

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $7.007 Trillion -.13%

• ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows -$2.074 Million

• AAII % Bulls 33.2 -9.5%

• AAII % Bears 41.4 +23.2%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 57.0 (GREED) -5.0

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 314.4 +3.7%

• Crude Oil 75.50/bbl. +8.9%

• Reformulated Gasoline 232.3 +7.1%

• Natural Gas 3.85 +8.6%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 40.9 euros/megawatt-hour +9.0%
  

• Heating Oil 256.3 +15.2% 
• Newcastle Coal 112.4 (1,000/metric ton) +2.1%

• Gold 3,367.6 -1.9%
• Silver 36.1 -.7%
  

• S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Index 454.9 +.2%

• Copper 483.5 -.1%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 342.0 USD/Metric Tonne +1.8%

• China Iron Ore Spot 93.9 USD/Metric Tonne +.05%
• China Battery Grade Lithium Carbonate 8,650.0 USD/metric tonne unch.

• CME Lumber  618.0 -1.4%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,427.7 +.9%
• US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 327.5 USD/Short Ton unch.

Economy

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.4% -.4 percentage point

• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 39.7 -1.0 percentage point

• NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index 2.01 +3.6%

• US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 308.9 -11.8%
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 4.3 -.7%
  
• DOGE Total Taxpayer Dollars Saved $180.0 Billion($1,118.01 Savings Per Taxpayer) unch.
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(8 of 500 reporting) +1.4% n/a

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 278.51 +.72:  Growth Rate +9.6% +.3 percentage point, P/E 21.5 -.3
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.24% +3.0 basis points
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 433.34 +1.82: Growth Rate +16.0% +.4 percentage point, P/E 32.7 -.3

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -23.9 -15.5 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 29.5 +3.1 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 30.0 -3.5 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 16.5%(-6.5 percentage points) chance of -25.0 basis point cut to 4.0-4.25%, 83.5%(+6.6 percentage points) chance of no change, 0.0%(-.1 percentage point) chance of +25.0 basis point hike to 4.5-4.75% on 7/30

• US Dollar Index 98.7 +.8%

• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,831.3 -.23%
  

• Bitcoin/USD 102,874.5 -1.9%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 189.5 +1.2%
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.79 -.75%

• Yield Curve(2s/10s) 46.5 +.25 basis point
  

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 4.37% -5.0 basis points

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $6.630 Trillion unch.
• Federal Reserve's Discount Window Usage $3.067 Billion unch.

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 44.7 -5.4%
  

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 211.3 -.12%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 98.0 +3.0 basis points
• UK Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 17.1 -2.4%

• China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 53.5 +13.9%
  

• Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 157.5 +1.9%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 111.9 -8.9%

• South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 27.7 +1.6%

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 23.9 unch.
• China High-Yield Real Estate Total Return Index 120.35 -.03%
  

• Atlanta Fed Low Skill Wage Growth Tracker YoY +3.9% unch.
• Zillow US All Homes Rent Index YoY +3.1% -20.0 basis points
• US Urban Consumers Food CPI YoY +2.9% unch.
• CPI Core Services Ex-Shelter YoY +3.1% unch.
• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.58% unch.: CPI YoY +2.62% +1.0 basis point
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.70 +9.0 basis points
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.34 +4.0 basis points

• Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 3.0 basis points -5.0 basis points 
  
• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -22.75 +.25 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -1.5 +1.25 basis points

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 56.32 +.7%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 209.0 +4.2% 
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 226.0 +5.0
  

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 63.1 +1.6%
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 143.7 +.7%

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 169.9 +1.3%
  

• MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 153.0 +4.0 basis points
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 600.0 -4.0 basis points
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS .56 -1.0 basis point

• M2 Money Supply YoY % Change +4.4% unch.

• Commercial Paper Outstanding $1,470.7B unch.

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 245,500 +2.0%
  

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.3% unch.
• Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 53.7 -1.1%
  

• Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 6.88% unch.

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 248,100 -2.6%

• Weekly Retail Sales +5.0% +.3 percentage point
• OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change YoY +22.0% +11.0 percentage points
• Box Office Weekly Gross $161.2M -22.3%

• Nationwide Gas $3.22/gallon +.09/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 1,751.0 -11.0%
• Drewry World Container Freight Index $3,278.7/40 ft Box -7.5%
  

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,342.5 +8.0%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 40.0 +45.5%
• Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 64.1 -10.2%

• Rail Freight Carloads 260,959 +1.0%
• TSA Total Traveler Throughput 2,980,490 +18.5% 
• Rasmussen Reports Daily Presidential Approval Tacking Poll 52% -1.0 percentage point

Best Performing Style

• Mid-Cap Growth -.5%
  

Worst Performing Style

• Small-Cap Value -1.5%

Leading Sectors

• Social Media +2.8%

• Nuclear +2.2%
• Energy +2.0%

• Disk Drives +1.4%
  

• Banks +.9%
  

Lagging Sectors

• Homebuilding -3.3%
  

• Pharma -5.5%
  

• Airlines -5.8%

• Steel -8.5%
  

• Electrification -8.8%
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (42)

• GRRR, BASE, GMS, CRCL, OSCR, AAOI, SMLR, ARQQ, BKSY, TSSI, GXO, ZETA, KR, LMND, LEU, PHH, NEON, QXO, CRWV, BATRK, IREN, KMX, RKLB, INOD, APG, WEN, GIII, RKT, BLD, GLXY, ASTS, URGN, COIN, HIMS, CCOI, RDFN, COOP, MDLZ, SKE and ACI

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (12)

• INFY, CTSH, KSPI, GWRE, SGRY, VERX, LASR, BRZE, HSTM, KBR, ACN and MESO

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Reversing Slightly Lower into Afternoon on Israel-Iran War Escalation Worries, Global Growth Concerns, Technical Selling, Healthcare/Tech Sector Weakness

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.94 -.04%
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.37% -2.0 basis points
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.30% -2.0 basis points

• China Iron Ore Spot 93.7 USD/Metric Tonne +.15%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 40.9 euros/megawatt-hour -1.7%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -23.9 -.8 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 29.5 -1.1 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 30.0 -1.7 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(8 of 500 reporting) +1.4% +1.1 percentage points
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 278.51 +.23:  Growth Rate +9.6% +.1 percentage point, P/E 21.4 -.2
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.24% +2.0 basis points
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 433.34 +.59: Growth Rate +16.0% +.1 percentage point, P/E 32.5 -.4
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .04 -22.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.18 +33.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 4.3 -.1
• US Yield Curve 46.5 basis points (2s/10s) +3.25 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.4% unch.
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 39.7% -.8 percentage point

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.58% unch.: CPI YoY +2.62% unch.
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.71 +4.0 basis points
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.34 +2.0 basis points
• Highest target rate probability for Sept. 17th FOMC meeting: 60.3% (+4.0 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for Oct. 29th meeting: 44.3%(-1.6 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Polymarket:

• US Military Action Against Iran Before July 45.0% -10.0 percentage points
• Will Iran Close the Straight of Hormuz in 2025? 34.0% unch.
• US-EU Trade Agreement by July 9th 51.0% +4.0 percentage points 
• Reconciliation Bill Passed by July 31st 73.0% +4.0 percentage points 

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +37 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -44 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +95 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my utility/financial sector longs, emerging market shorts and index hedges
• Disclosed Trades: None
• Market Exposure: 25% Net Long

Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (CMC)/.85
• (FDS)/4.30 

After the Close: 

• (KBH)/1.46

Economic Releases

9:45 am EST

• The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI for June is estimated to fall to 51.0 versus 52.0 in May.
• The S&P Global US Services PMI for June is estimated to fall to 52.9 versus 53.7 in May.
• The S&P Global US Composite PMI for June is estimated to fall to 52.2 versus 53.0 in May. 

10:00 am EST

• Existing Home Sales for  May is estimated to fall to 3.96M versus 4.0M in April.  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Waller speaking, Fed's Bowman speaking, Fed's Kugler speaking, Fed's Daly speaking, Fed's Goolsbee speaking, Fed's Willaims speaking, CFTC weekly speculative net positioning reports, JPMorgan Energy/Power/Renewables/Mining Conference, BofA Commodities Conference and the American Diabetes Assoc. Scientific Conference could also impact global trading on Monday.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Friday Watch

Around X:

• @Business

• Israel struck more of Iran’s nuclear sites and warned its attacks could bring down Tehran’s leadership.
• The chief of the UN atomic watchdog rejected Iranian allegations that a recent nuclear-inspections report, which determined Tehran is in breach of its legal obligations, “in any way” justified Israel’s attacks on the Islamic Republic. 
• Iran is racing to get oil out into the world and ensure revenues continue even as Israel pounds its infrastructure.
• As the conflict between Israel and Iran continues, concerns are growing about disruption to the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz. Alaric Nightingale explains.
• Europe risks drifting into stagnation without urgent action to tackle slowing growth, weak investment and rising geopolitical threats, the IMF warns.
• Elon Musk’s $33 billion xAI buyout of social media platform X has sparked new scrutiny from the European Union as regulators size up a penalty under the Digital Services Act.
• Former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers said he expects Donald Trump to name a mainstream candidate to replace Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.
• Investors are bracing for $6.5 trillion of notional US options expiring on Friday, in a move that could free stocks to swing more wildly than the subdued changes seen in recent weeks.

• @ZeroHedge 

• "No Kings", Except For The Bureaucrats.
• Netanyahu Threatens Assassination Of 'Modern Hitler' - Iran's Ayatollah.
• ZIRP is back. Coming to every central bank near you.
• Fewer Ships Enter Strait Of Hormuz Even As Satellite Images Show Iran Races To Get Its Tankers Out Of Gulf. (map)
• Tanker rates originating in the gulf are soaring. (graph)  
• *LEAVITT: IRAN CAN AND SHOULD MAKE A DEAL OR FACE CONSEQUENCES *LEAVITT: TRUMP REMAINS IN CONTACT WITH NETANYAHU.
• Two US Soldiers Die In Non-Combat Incidents In Middle East As Region On Edge.
• *LEAVITT: TRUMP THINKS 'SUBSTANTIAL CHANCE' OF IRAN NEGOTIATIONS. *LEAVITT: WITKOFF HAS BEEN IN TOUCH WITH IRAN.  
• *LEAVITT: TRUMP ALWAYS INTERESTED IN DIPLOMATIC SOLUTIONS.
• Watch Live: WH Says Trump To Decide On Attacking Iran 'Within Next 2 Weeks'.
• Hezbollah threatens to target US bases and close Strait of Hormuz if Washington joins strikes on Iran: Al Hadath.
• IMF Chief Says Now Is Great Time to Boost Global Role of Euro. what is it with these desperate attempts to force the world to use a dead currency. first the CBDC thing failed miserably, now this full court press.    
• General Mills Announces Removal Of Synthetic Food Dyes, Starting With Cereals.
• US is AI, Europe is Olives... Are investors giving up on Europe? Chart shows SPX vs SX5E ratio continues moving higher... 

• @CNBC

• China expectedly keeps key lending rates steady after May cut.
• Japan's core inflation hits highest level since January 2023, putting pressure on BOJ to raise rates.
• Meta tried to buy Ilya Sutskever's $32 billion AI startup, but is now planning to hire its CEO.

• @WSJ

• Democrats and clean energy advocates are ratcheting up pressure on a handful of Republican senators to salvage billions of dollars in projects.
• Elite progressive conformity is a problem across the Western world, and a telling example was exposed this week in the United Kingdom. A hat tip to Elon Musk for prodding the Brits to confront the scandal of so-called grooming gangs.

• @MarioNawful   

• REZA PAHLAVI: LATEST REPORTS SAY REGIME CONTROL IS COLLAPSING FROM WITHIN. “The latest report that we have had, Martha, is that the control of the regime is almost collapsing. And we see more and more of those reports coming to us from personnel within the military or intelligence that say so. It's really falling apart much faster than it was, let's say, last week. The problem, however, is that the regime has cut off the nation from any communication. Internet and even landlines are down.”
• ELON: NEURALINK VISION IMPLANTS COULD BRING “SUPER POWER” SIGHT. "I think in the next 6 to 12 months, we'll be doing our first implants for vision, where even if somebody's completely blind, we can write directly to the visual cortex. We've had that working in monkeys. Actually, I think one of our monkeys now has had the visual implant for 3 years. At first, it'll be relatively fairly low resolution, but long term... you'd have very high resolution and be able to see in multispectral wavelengths. You could see in infrared, ultraviolet, radar. It's like a super power situation." (video)
• FORMER CIA OFFICER: “IF YOU THINK YOU HAVE PRIVACY, YOU’RE MISLED”. Former CIA officer and U.S. Air Force combat veteran: “Your phone, your watch, your smart fridge, even your kids’ devices, all become targets. WhatsApp, Signal, Telegram, all can be cracked or cloned. And yes, tech giants will cooperate if governments demand it.” (video)

• @GatewayPundit

• AT LONG LAST: France To Change Legislation to Finally Try To Stop UK’s Migrant Invasion by Small Boats Crossing the Channel.
• ‘Who Was Running the Country?’ – Witnesses Testify on Biden Health Cover-Up, Autopen Scandal (VIDEO) 
• HERE WE GO: Judge Hannah Dugan’s Trial for Obstruction of ICE Agents is OFF the Calendar as Court Possibly Rules on Motion to Dismiss Case.
• YIKES: 62 Percent of Democrats Want Party Leadership to be Replaced — Believe They’re Too Focused on Woke Issues.

• @KobeissiLetter

• This is incredible: A net 31% of institutional investors are underweight the US Dollar, the most in 20 years, per Bank of America. This has declined by ~52 percentage points over the last 5 months. Furthermore, asset managers and leveraged funds' net positioning on the US Dollar has fallen to near its lowest in 3 years. As a result, the US Dollar index has declined 9% year-to-date, marking its worst performance this century. This puts the US Dollar now on track for its biggest drop in the first half of the year since 1986. The US Dollar is historically unpopular right now.

• @GenFlynn

• The leader of the ongoing Marxist revolution in America, Barack Hussein Obama
  @BarackObama. Thank you @realDonaldTrump for keeping the flame of freedom alive!!! (pic)

• @VigilantFox

• More stories: Trump Admin Closes Biden-Era Loophole That Let China Scoop Up Americans’ DNA.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.5% to +.5% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 79.75 +2.0 basis points. 
• China Sovereign CDS 52.25 +3.25 basis points.
• China Iron Ore Spot 94.1 USD/Metric Tonne +1.5%.
• Polymarket: US Military Action Against Iran Before July 40.0% -26.0 percentage points
• Polymarket: Will Iran Close the Straight of Hormuz in 2025? 30.0% -9.0 percentage points
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.80 -.06%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.0 +.03%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 68.0 -.5%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.39% n/a.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 21.1 +1.6%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.5%. 
• S&P 500 futures -.33%. 
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.29%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.