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Monday Watch

Weekend Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Wal-Mart said July sales at its US stores open at least a year are rising within its forecast range as food sales outpaced general merchandise sales for the first time in five weeks.
- White House Deputy Chief of Staff Karl Rove didn't mention Valerie Plame by name as a CIA covert operative when he spoke to a Time Magazine reporter, according to a story to be published in the July 18 issue of Newsweek.
- North Korea agreed to resume talks aimed at halting its nuclear arms program, ending more than a yearlong impasse with the US and four other nations. "It is the ultimate goal of North Korea to denuclearize the Korean Peninsula," the official Korean Central News Agency reported.
- US retailers, including Wal-Mart, Gap and Chico's FAS, are increasing purchases of inexpensive clothing and jewelry from India as they brace for rising costs when China, their biggest overseas supplier, revalues its currency.
- European stock indices may fall on speculation that the region's faltering economic growth is taking a greater toll on corporate profits than analysts anticipated.
- Crude oil is falling for a third day after Hurricane Dennis struck the western Florida coast, missing oil rigs and platforms in the Gulf of Mexico.

Wall Street Journal:
- VNU NV, owner of market researcher ACNielsen, is close to a deal to buy data provider IMS Health for $6.3 billion in cash and stock.

Barron's:
- Biotechnology companies such as Genentech are relocating or expanding in San Francisco, pushing commercial real estate prices higher and vacancies lower.
- Three veteran bulls of the Treasury bond market are having the last laugh over the majority of investment strategists who forecast falling prices and rising yields, and they say long-term yields will hold or fall further.

New York Times:
- The bombs detonated in London were crude devices, suggesting the attack was carried out by a sleeper cell of homegrown extremists rather than highly trained terrorists from overseas, citing investigators it didn't identify.
- The US economy has been helped by the increasing demand for new homes that has helped add 700,000 jobs during the past four years as home prices gained in many areas, citing Economy.com.
- The new imam of London's Finsbury Park mosque called on Muslims at Friday prayers yesterday to show their outrage by helping find those responsible for this week's terrorist bombings.
- The Bush administration yesterday named a commission to seek ways to reduce the costs of the US Medicaid program by $10 billion during the next five years and tapped a former Tennessee governor to head it.
- The number of American farms on which the death tax is owed when the owners die has declined 82% to just 300 farms since Congress more than doubled the threshold at which the tax applies.
- Fund managers with a so-called value style who normally avoid technology stocks with high prices relative to earnings are finding more of these stocks reasonable buys after a five-year decline.

AP:
- Twenty- nine cows test negative for mad now disease after they were taken from the same herd where an infected cow was found, citing the US Dept. of Agriculture.

Time magazine:
- Robert Iger, Walt Disney's soon-to-be chief executive officer, said the media company's goal is to build a theme park in mainland China and use that to sell its programming and movies.

Guardian:
- UK business confidence is at its lowest level since December 2001, citing a Lloyds TSB Group Plc survey.

The Observer:
- Citigroup is considering a possible $1.7 billion bid for Egg Plc, the internet bank majority owned by Prudential Plc.

AFP:
- Al-Qaeda claimed responsibility for attacks on London transport this week, posting an Internet statement today in the name of the Europe division of the network's Abu Hafs al-Masri Brigades.

Xinhua News Agency:
- China's crude oil imports in the first-half of the year gained 3.9% to 63.4 million metric tons, citing customs statistics. The country's oil product imports fell 21% to 15.7 million tons from January through June.
- Imports of steel to China fell 32% in the first five months of the year.

China Securities Journal:
- China will allow qualified foreign institutional investors to buy up to $10 billion of Chinese stock, up from $4 billion now, as part of efforts to bolster markets and speed up the nation's share-structure reform.

Economic Daily News:
- Taiwan's flat-panel display makers used up almost their entire inventories in the second quarter and now face supply shortages of upstream parts and components.

Maeil Business Newspaper:
- LG Electronics may consider bidding for Hynix Semiconductor to expand in electronics and telecom equipment.

Weekend Recommendations
Bulls and Bears:
- Had guests that were positive on FWRD and mixed on NAT, DIS, COST, NXY, BA, BCS.

Forbes on Fox:
- Had guests that were positive on CB, DOW and mixed on NOC, SBL, INTC, GGB.

Cashin' In:
- Had guests that were positive on TGT, AXP, HAL and mixed on LMT.

Cavuto on Business:
- Had guests that were positive on FLIR, LLL, BA and mixed on SBL.

Barron's:
- Had positive comments on NSC and SFA.

Goldman Sachs:
None of note

Night Trading
Asian indices are +.75% to +1.25% on average.
S&P 500 indicated +.05%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated +.03%.

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Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
DNA/.26
BEN/.95
JBHT/.34

Upcoming Splits
JAH 3-for-2

Economic Releases
None of note

BOTTOM LINE: Asian Indices are higher on optimism over comments from North Korea, no more terrorist acts and lower energy prices. I expect US stocks to open higher on gains in Asia. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.

Weekly Outlook

There are a number of important economic reports and several significant corporate earnings reports scheduled for release this week.

Economic reports for the week include:

Mon. - None of note
Tues. - None of note
Wed. - Trade Balance, Import Price Index, Monthly Budget Statement
Thur. - Consumer Price Index, Advance Retail Sales, Initial Jobless Claims
Fri. - Empire Manufacturing, Producer Price Index, Business Inventories, Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization, Univ. of Mich. Confidence

A few of the more noteworthy companies that release quarterly earnings this week are:

Mon. - Franklin Resources(BEN), Genentech(DNA), JB Hunt(JBHT)
Tues. - Ameritrade(AMTD)
Wed. - Abbott Labs(ABT), Advanced Micro Devices(AMD), Apple Computer(AAPL), Gannett Co.(GCI), Harley-Davidson(HDI)
Thur. - Commerce Bancorp(CBH), Fifth Third Bancorp(FITB), Genzyme Corp.(GENZ), Investors Financial(IFIN), QLogic(QLGC), Southwest Air(LUV), Tribune Co.(TRB), UnitedHealth Group(UNH)
Fri. - First Data(FDC), General Electric(GE)

Other events that have market-moving potential this week include:

Mon. - SEMICON West, Fed's Lacker speaks
Tue. - Strategic Research Institute's Cancer Drug Discovery/Development Conference, SEMICON West, CIBC Consumer Growth Conference
Wed. - SEMICON West, CIBC Consumer Growth Conference, Fed's Santomero speaks
Thur. - SEMICON West
Fri. - None of note

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week modestly higher on a decline in energy prices and mostly positive economic data. The fact that stocks rose into record high energy prices, earnings pre-announcement season and the London bombings bodes well for my positive second half outlook. I continue to believe US stocks will mount a significant rally sometime over the next several months. My trading indicators are now giving bullish signals and the Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.

Economic Week in Review

ECRI Weekly Leading Index 134.40 +.52%

Factory Orders for May rose 2.9% versus estimates of a 3.0% gain and a .7% increase in April. US factory orders rose by the largest amount in a year, due mainly to a surge in commercial aircraft orders. However, demand for business equipment declined for a third month in four. As well, orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, a measure of future business investment, fell 2.5% in May after gaining 1.7% in April. "The weakness in manufacturing in the spring was because of excess inventories, that's mostly over at this point," said Stephen Stanley, chief economist at RBS Greenwich Capital. "The soft ex-aircraft result isn't as much a concern because the ISM rebounded in June, so for now it looks like growth in manufacturing will pick up well in the third quarter," said Wesley Beal, chief US economist at IDEAglobal.com.

ISM Non-Manufacturing for June rose to 62.2 versus estimates of 58.7 and a reading of 58.5 in May. The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index, a measure of the health of service companies which compose the largest part of the US economy, exceeded estimates and a measure of hiring accelerated. The employment component of the index rose to 57.4, the highest in 4 months. The export orders component of the index fell to 50 from 62. The prices paid index rose slightly to 59.8 from 57.9. "It's clear that energy prices aren't slowing business activity," said Michael Moran, chief economist at Daiwa Securities. "If you look at an ideal economy, this is about it right now," said Mitchell Stapley, chief fixed-income strategist at Fifth Third Asset Management. "We have economic growth at about 3.5% probably on average for the rest of the year, the unemployment rate at 5.1% and consumer inflation probably running about 2.0%," Stapley said.

Pending Home Sales for May fell 2.0% versus estimates of a .5% increase and a 3.1% gain in April. Contracts to buy previously owned US homes fell in May for the first time in four months while remaining close to a record. The May number was the third highest in US history. The level of pending re-sales suggests rising prices may be discouraging some prospective buyers, however home buying remains very strong by historic standards. "We might not go much higher with monthly home sales, but we're still on a record pace for the year," said Gina Martin, an economist at Wachovia. "To put this index in perspective, we're running about 25 percentage points higher than what is considered to be historically strong," said David Lereah, the National Assoc. of Realtors' chief economist.

The Unemployment Rate for June fell to 5.0% versus estimates of 5.1% and a 5.1% rate in May. Average Hourly Earnings for June rose .2% versus estimates of a .2% increase and a .2% gain in May. The Change in Non-farm Payrolls for June was 146K versus estimates of 200K and an upwardly revised 104K in May. The Change in Manufacturing Payrolls for June was -24K versus estimates of -5K and -6K in May. US employers added 146,000 workers in June and the unemployment rate fell to the best level since the 9/11 terrorist attacks in 2001. Wage gains are helping boost consumer spending. Wages and Salaries were up 7% in May from the same time last year, more than twice the rate of inflation. Retailers from Wal-Mart to Nordstrom posted their biggest sales gain in 13 months in June even with high gas prices, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers. Monthly job gains in 2005 have "been in the neighborhood of 180,000, and that's comparable to what it was a year ago, which was a very good growth year," said Thomas Hoenig, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. "Job growth isn't too strong or too weak – we're not trying to achieve an economic recovery anymore, we're just trying to sustain things," said Barry Bosworth, a senior economist at the Brookings Institution.

Wholesales Inventories for May rose .1% versus estimates of a .5% increase and a .7% gain in April. Rising imports in three of the first four months of the year spurred warehouse construction and suggest inventory expansion continues to support economic growth. The amount of time wholesale goods went unsold, known as the inventory-to-sales ratio, was unchanged from April at 1.18 months. "We're going to see a little bit of an inventory correction from the accumulation in the first quarter," said Glenn Haberbush, an economist at Mizuho Securities.

Consumer Credit for May fell to -$3 billion versus estimates of $4.1 billion and $1.2 billion in April. Borrowing by US consumer unexpectedly fell in May by the most since December 1990. The drop was led by non-revolving debt, such as car loans, which fell the most in 13 years. "Often in months where you have a lot of mortgage-refinancing activity, you see a decline in consumer debt because of debt substitution," said Steven Ricchiuto, chief economist at ABN Amro.

BOTTOM LINE: Overall, last week's economic data were modestly positive. US economic growth, which had been slowing to around 3%, appears to be accelerating to an above-average 3.5% rate. I continue to believe manufacturing will remain mixed-to-weaker over the near-term. However, strong consumer spending will likely boost factory activity over the intermediate-term. The elevated ISM Non-manufacturing reading bodes well for a continuation of recent healthy economic data. A period of consolidation is likely near with respect to home price increases. However, a significant nationwide decline in home values is unlikely. The 146,000 gain in payrolls is within the preferred range of 100,000-150,000. This will keep unemployment moving gradually lower without spurring significant gains in unit labor costs which would cause inflation to accelerate. I expect inventory building to increase later in the year as companies gain confidence in a continuation of the current healthy economic expansion and automakers' inventories stabilize. Finally, the ECRI Weekly Leading Index rose .52% to 134.40 and is forecasting moderately accelerating growth.

Market Week in Review

S&P 500 1,211.86 +1.72%*

BOTTOM LINE: Overall, last week's market performance was very positive. Gains were especially impressive considering the London bombings and steep increase in energy prices ahead of Hurricane Dennis. The advance/decline line rose, almost every sector gained and volume was below average on the week. Measures of investor anxiety were mixed. The AAII % Bulls fell again and is now slightly below average levels. Mortgage rates rose and are now 41 basis points away from all-time lows set in June 2003. The benchmark 10-year T-note yield also rose as economic reports painted a mostly healthy picture of the state of the US economy. Small-caps, especially Cyclicals and Tech, were beneficiaries of these strong reports as well as another break out in the US dollar.

*5-day % Change