BETWEEN THE HEDGES

Sunday, October 04, 2009

Monday Watch

Posted by Gary .....at 4:27 PM

Weekend Headlines
Bloomberg:

- Legislation tightening oversight of the $592 trillion over-the-counter derivatives market would give regulators authority to ban so-called abusive swaps. The Securities and Exchange Commission and Commodity Futures Trading Commission would get the power to “prohibit transactions in any swap” that regulators determine “would be detrimental to the stability of a financial market or of participants in a financial market,” according to a 187-page draft measure released yesterday by House Financial Services Committee Chairman Barney Frank. Opaque financial products, including some derivatives, have contributed to almost $1.6 trillion in writedowns and losses at the world’s biggest banks, brokers and insurers since the start of 2007, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

- Robert Halderman, a producer for CBS Corp. television, pleaded not guilty to charges he tried to extort $2 million from talk show host David Letterman in exchange for not revealing sexual affairs.

- The dollar strengthened the most against the euro in four months as public officials from Gothenburg, Sweden to Tokyo said a strong U.S. currency is essential to the global economy. The greenback advanced this week to the highest level versus the euro in almost a month as finance chiefs converging on Istanbul for Group of Seven talks today pushed for a “strong dollar.” Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner pledged support for such a policy, and European Central Bank President Jean- Claude Trichet said it was “extremely important.” “All of a sudden, Geithner and Trichet are all talking about the strong-dollar policy,” said Richard Franulovich, a senior currency strategist at Westpac Banking Corp. in New York. “The threshold for pain on the euro is a lot lower than it used to be.”

- The International Monetary Fund said central banks in Europe should keep interest rates low and possibly extend non-standard stimulus measures because the region’s economic recovery is likely to be “slow and fragile.” “Monetary policy will need to remain supportive for the time being and keep all options open,” the IMF said in its economic outlook for Europe published in Istanbul today. “In the advanced economies, there might still be additional room for maneuver through a more forceful signal of the intent to keep interest rates low and the extension of non-standard measures.” The recovery will likely be slow because increasing demand for European goods in Asia “can hardly substitute for the pre-crisis appetite for imports of U.S. consumers,” said Marek Belka, director of the IMF’s European department. “In addition, credit remains scarce, unemployment is rising, and the crisis has reduced Europe’s growth potential,” he said in the report.

- Eight U.S. soldiers and two Afghan troops died in a gun battle with militants in eastern Afghanistan, according to the coalition force. Militants from a nearby mosque and village attacked two outposts in Nuristan province yesterday, NATO’s International Security Assistance Force said in a statement today. Coalition forces retaliated, “inflicting heavy enemy casualties,” according to the statement.

- Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Chairman Sheila Bair said regulators should consider making bank holding companies and secured creditors carry more of the cost of bank failures. “This could involve potentially limiting their claims to no more than, say, 80 percent of their secured credits,” Bair said in a speech to a banking conference in Istanbul today. “This would ensure that market participants always have some skin in the game, and it would be very strong medicine indeed.” Bair’s comments go beyond any of her previous proposals for changing the way large and so-called systemically important financial institutions are treated to reduce the risk of their failure. She has long supported broadening the government’s powers so that it can limit the impact of a collapse such as last year’s bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.

- Investors are snapping up commodities at the fastest pace in 18 months just as stockpiles of raw materials rise and shipping rates plunged, signaling that prices may be poised to fall. Open interest, or contracts yet to be closed, liquidated or delivered, rose 6.6% in the third quarter for the 20 most-traded US commodities, exchange data compiles by Bloomberg show. That’s the steepest gain since the first three months of 2008, just before the credit-market freeze sent prices plunging from records.

- President Barack Obama should consider legislation to limit greenhouse gas emissions as he looks for new ways to speed the U.S. economy’s recovery from the recession, said Senator Barbara Boxer, a California Democrat. Boxer and Senator John Kerry, a Massachusetts Democrat, last week unveiled a “cap-and-trade” proposal to cut U.S. greenhouse gases 20 percent below 2005 levels by 2020. In June, the House passed a cap-and-trade plan with a 17 percent cut. After the Labor Department reported that the U.S. unemployment rate hit 9.8 percent last month, the highest level since 1983, Obama said he was working to “explore any and all additional” means of spurring growth. Obama signed a $787 billion stimulus package in February. Asked on CNN’s “State of the Union” what extra steps the White House should take to stimulate the economy, Boxer said “it could be moving forward with an energy bill.” Environmentalists want Congress to pass and Obama to sign a cap-and-trade bill before December, when the United Nations will host more than 190 nations in Copenhagen for negotiations over a new global agreement to cut emissions. Rather than stimulate the economy through investments in cleaner energy sources, Republicans have said cap-and-trade will raise the cost of the existing sources that fuel the economy and hinder growth. “Don’t be pushing bills like cap-and-trade, which are big job killers,” Senator Jon Kyl, an Arizona Republican, said on the same CNN program as Boxer. The Boxer-Kerry cap-and-trade bill also has critics within the Democratic Party. Senator Jay Rockefeller, a West Virginia Democrat, said Sept. 30 the bill’s 20 percent cut in emissions by 2020 is “unrealistic and harmful.”

- The federal government should not consider a new stimulus package, even with U.S. unemployment likely “to penetrate the 10 percent barrier and stay there for a while,” former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said. “The focus has got to be on trying to get the economy going, but you also have to be careful that in trying to do too much you can actually be counterproductive,” Greenspan said on ABC’s “This Week” program. Greenspan appeared on ABC two days after the Labor Department reported an unemployment rate of 9.8 percent, the highest since 1983. Third-quarter economic growth is likely to be 3 percent and “possibly even higher,” Greenspan said today on ABC. Only 40 percent of the $787 billion economic stimulus package approved in February is “in place,” he said. “It’s far better to wait and see how this momentum that’s already begun to develop in the economy carries forward,” he said. While last week’s unemployment report was “pretty awful no matter how you looked at it,” the economy is recovering and it would be “premature” for Obama and Congress to enact another stimulus package, Greenspan said. “We are in a recovery and I think it would be a mistake to say the September (unemployment) numbers alter that significantly,” he said. The “silver lining” to the unemployment numbers is that firms have cut jobs expecting “the economy would go down far more sharply than it in fact did” after the “whole financial system imploded” following the September 2008 bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., Greenspan said. U.S. firms “laid off a very substantial number of people to the point that the actual hours worked fell even more than the economy,” and this trend “can’t continue,” he said. “At some point we’re going to start to see an improvement in employment,” Greenspan said.

- Hand Over Your Job If You Want to Dream in Green.

Wall Street Journal:

- A deal to merge General Electric Co.'s(GE) NBC Universal into a new joint venture with Comcast Corp.'s(CMCSA) cable networks might solve pressing needs for both companies. But a number of financial and legal issues still hang over the talks, which are still at an early stage. While both sides hope to complete a deal, people familiar with the matter give the transaction "50-50" odds of coming together. In the deal under discussion, Comcast would contribute cash and its cable networks to NBC Universal for a 51% stake in the expanded company. NBC Universal would borrow money that would be turned over to GE, along with the cash contribution, according to the person familiar with the matter. GE would use that cash to buy out a 20% stake in NBC Universal held by Vivendi SA and then pocket the remainder, the person said. In the end, GE would have a 49% stake. The chief issue for all parties remains valuation.

- White House officials and Democratic leaders in Congress on Friday said they were weighing extending key elements of the economic-stimulus program as the nation grapples with a deteriorating job market. Obama administration economists said they would like the enhanced unemployment-insurance program to extend beyond its Dec. 31 expiration date. They also want to maintain a program that offers tax credits to pay 65% of the cost of health insurance policies under the COBRA program, which allows laid-off workers to purchase the health plans they had through their previous employer. White House officials said they also are examining whether to extend a soon-to-expire tax credit for first-time homebuyers, but that provision faces a stiffer headwind. "The question is, does it need to be extended or would fiscal considerations lead us to not do so," one administration official said. "We've got a budget deficit to think about, too." Administration officials are reluctant to call these possible moves a second stimulus package because about 60% of the initial $787 billion stimulus package remains unspent and not contractually obligated to projects. They are focused on what they call the "safety net" parts of the original package, which expire Dec. 31. But since the extensions would require congressional action, they would likely reopen a debate about the fast-rising federal deficit and the effectiveness to date of the stimulus package. For the fiscal year that ended Wednesday, the government is expected to post a record $1.56 trillion budget deficit. That rise is feeding criticism of the administration's spending, and sowing some worry among officials about spending.

- The U.S. government is expecting delivery starting this week of enough doses of the new swine-flu vaccine for nearly every American who wants it, but state and local budget cuts coupled with limits on who can administer the vaccine could hamstring the campaign. A second wave of the new flu, known as the 2009 H1N1 virus, is widespread across more than half of U.S. states, but it will be weeks before millions of people who want shots can get them.

- The rush to support Roman Polanski shows how isolated the entertainment industry is from the rest of the world.

- In recent years, many Americans have had cause to wonder whether decisions made at EPA were guided by science and the law, or whether those principles had been trumped by politics," declared Lisa Jackson in San Francisco last week. The Environmental Protection Agency chief can't stop kicking the Bush Administration, but the irony is that the Obama EPA is far more "political" than the Bush team ever was. How else to explain the coordinated release on Wednesday of the EPA's new rules that make carbon a dangerous pollutant and John Kerry's cap-and-trade bill? Ms. Jackson is issuing a political ultimatum to business, as well as to Midwestern and rural Democrats: Support the Kerry-Obama climate tax agenda—or we'll punish your utilities and consumers without your vote. The EPA has now formally made an "endangerment finding" on CO2, which will impose the command-and-control regulations of the Clean Air Act across the entire economy. Because this law was never written to apply to carbon, the costs will far exceed those of a straight carbon tax or even cap and trade—though judging by the bills Democrats are stitching together, perhaps not by much. In any case, the point of this reckless "endangerment" is to force industry and politicians wary of raising taxes to concede, lest companies have to endure even worse economic and bureaucratic destruction from the EPA.

- Tensions over Iran's nuclear program were one of the main drivers pushing oil up to nearly $150 a barrel a year ago. What a difference a year makes. Oil markets have brushed off last week's disclosures about Iran's secret uranium-enrichment facility near the holy city of Qom. The news increased suspicions that Tehran may be seeking a nuclear weapon, raising the prospect of a diplomatic crisis that could prompt Iran to cut its oil exports -- but oil prices have barely budged. The reason: The world is a very different place than it was a year ago. The global economic slowdown has eroded oil demand, inventories are full, and there is plenty of spare supply. Even if Iran cuts its oil exports, Saudi Arabia has so much spare production capacity that it could easily make up the shortfall.

- After a six-year building frenzy that transformed this city, casino companies are shifting strategies dramatically toward slower growth, paying down debt and cutting back on spending. Many casino executives don't expect to break ground on another major building project in Las Vegas for at least 10 years. "The old model has been thrown out the window," says MGM Mirage Chief Executive Jim Murren. For most of this decade, casinos embarked on a debt-fueled expansion, plowing more than $30 billion into casino and hotel projects around Las Vegas. When the economy collapsed, it left casino companies with dwindling revenues and mountains of debt. Several entered bankruptcy-court proceedings. Now, casino companies are eschewing capital-intensive projects to focus on increasing profit margins through branding, marketing and customer loyalty.

- Chávez imports Ahmadinejad's ideology to Latin America.

Barron’s:

- Steris(STE) is cleaning up, as demand for sterilization equipment grows.

MarketWatch.com:

- Prince Alwaleed bin Talal, a major Citigroup Inc.(C) investor, is urging the U.S. government to sell its stake in the bank as soon as this year to boost investor confidence, Emerging Markets magazine reported, according to Reuters. "The earlier the U.S. government exits its investments in those companies, the better," as long as the government's move isn't done in a way that hurts the prices of U.S. banking stocks, the Saudi billionaire was quoted as saying in an interview published Sunday, according to Reuters. "We need to give confidence back to the shareholders and investors that these companies are moving along without government support." The U.S. government has a 34% stake in Citigroup, after the bank obtained $45 billion from the government's Troubled Asset Relief Program.

CNBC.com:
- Three more large investment firms have raised sufficient capital to participate in the joint partnership with the government to purchase toxic assets from banks. The Treasury Department said Alliance Bernstein and BlackRock, both headquartered in New York City, and Wellington Management, based in Boston, had all raised the $500 million minimum to begin operations.

NY Times:

- Senior staff members of the United Nations nuclear agency have concluded in a confidential analysis that Iran has acquired “sufficient information to be able to design and produce a workable” atom bomb. The report by experts in the International Atomic Energy Agency stresses in its introduction that its conclusions are tentative and subject to further confirmation of the evidence, which it says came from intelligence agencies and its own investigations. But the report’s conclusions, described by senior European officials, go well beyond the public positions taken by several governments, including the United States.

The Business Insider:
- Letterman Backlash: Will CBS Have To Fire Him?

Business Week:
- CEO Eric Schmidt discusses how Google(GOOG) is handling challenges from Microsoft and upstarts Twitter and Facebook—and why search remains its priority.

New York:

- Is it possible to use one embattled politician to save another? That’s the implausible but intriguing scenario that New York Democrats are considering as they try to persuade David Paterson to withdraw from next year's governor's race. The turmoil engulfing one of Paterson's oldest friends, Representative Charles Rangel, could point the way to a resolution. The trickiest part about pushing Paterson out of Albany has been finding the proper cushion to soften the fall. An ambassadorship? That would require U.S. Senate confirmation and the intense scrutiny that comes with it. A post in the Obama administration? It's possible, but less likely after the governor's response to the president's request that he step down. With the options appearing limited, Democrats are quietly floating an alternative exit strategy. Rangel, one of the highest-ranking Democrats in the House, has been mired in multiple tax scandals and legislative setbacks that have weakened his standing. The 79-year-old has vigorously fended off Republican attempts to strip him of his chairmanship of the House Ways and Means Committee and has insisted he will seek a 21st term next year. But Rangel's Harlem clubhouse ties with Paterson and his father, Basil, which are as close as family, might help him reconsider. Should Rangel and Paterson resign from their offices next year, party leaders in Manhattan could hand the seat over to Paterson in a special election that would be virtually uncontested. The scenario has surfaced in private discussions this week among prominent Democrats, according to a source involved in the talks. "If Charlie's going to walk away in a way that helps David save face, then Charlie might choose to do that," said a Manhattan Democrat.

Politico:

- What was he thinking? Monday-morning Quarterbacking became Washington’s favorite Olympic sport Friday after President Barack Obama’s in-person pitch failed to bring home the 2016 Olympics to Chicago – and in rather dramatic fashion. Chicago was knocked out in the first-round of balloting – winning just 18 of 94 votes — making Obama’s trip to Copenhagen seem not just unsuccessful but entirely ineffective.

Rasmussen Reports:

- Sixty-three percent (63%) of voters nationwide say guaranteeing that no one is forced to change their health insurance coverage is a higher priority than giving consumers the choice of a "public option" health insurance company. The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that just 29% take the opposite view. They say it’s more important to give people a government-sponsored non-profit health insurance option.

InvestmentNews:

- The Achilles heel of hedge funds — tax inefficiency — could soon send investors limping toward other options. “If investors feel they are getting less after-tax income, they will find other alternative investments,” said Ken Rubenstein, senior partner at the law firm Rubenstein & Rubenstein LLP, which specializes in hedge funds. If tax rates rise, as most ob-servers expect given the ballooning federal deficit, hedge funds may find themselves in a structural bind should investors become more conscious of after-tax returns. “The nature of what hedge funds do doesn't lead to a lot of tax efficiency,” said Jeffrey Mindlin, chief operating officer at Advanced Equities Asset Management Inc. Hedge funds are characterized by high portfolio turnover, which leads to lots of short-term gains taxed at ordinary income rates. But managing a portfolio to avoid short-term gains can adversely affect performance and hedge fund manager income.

Washington Post:

- A new report from a national coalition of mayors urges President Obama to adopt dozens of reforms to help curb gun violence, including steps to crack down on problems at gun shows and the creation of a federal interstate firearms trafficking unit. The "Blueprint for Federal Action on Illegal Guns," a copy of which was obtained by The Washington Post, presents 40 recommendations that "would dramatically improve law enforcement's ability to keep guns out of the hands of criminals -- and, in doing so, save innocent lives." The strategies outlined by the Mayors Against Illegal Guns, a bipartisan group of about 450 mayors nationwide, focus on the federal Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives.

- There was once a swagger to the scotch-swilling, insurgent-fighting Raed Sabah. He was known as Sheik Raed to his sycophants. Tribesmen who relied on his largess called him the same. So did his fighters, who joined the Americans and helped crush the insurgency in Anbar province. Sabah still likes his scotch -- Johnnie Walker Black, with Red Bull on the rocks -- but these days, as the Americans withdraw from western Iraq, he has lost his swagger. His neighbors now deride him as an American stooge; they have nicknamed his alley "The Street of the Lackeys." "The Americans left without even saying goodbye. Not one of them," Sabah said in his villa in Ramadi, the capital of Anbar, once the cradle of Iraq's insurgency. "Even when we called them, we got a message that the line had been disconnected." Nowhere is the U.S. departure from Iraq more visible than in Anbar, where the 27 bases and outposts less than a year ago have dwindled to three today. Far less money is being spent. Since November, more than two-thirds of combat troops have departed. In their wake is a blend of cynicism and bitterness, frustration and fear among many of the tribal leaders who fought with the troops against the insurgents, a tableau of emotion that may color the American legacy in a region that has stood as the U.S. military's single greatest success in the war. Pragmatism, the Americans call their departure. Desertion, their erstwhile allies answer.

AP:

- Iran's president hit back Saturday at President Barack Obama's accusation that his country had sought to hide its construction of a new nuclear site, arguing that Tehran reported the facility to the U.N. even earlier than required. The Iranian president defended his government's actions as the head of the U.N.'s nuclear monitoring agency, Mohamed ElBaradei, arrived Saturday to arrange an inspection of the uranium enrichment facility near the holy city of Qom. "The U.S. president made a big and historic mistake," Iranian state TV quoted Ahmadinejad as saying. "Later it became clear that (his) information was wrong and that we had no secrecy." Suspicion that Iran's newly revealed nuclear site was meant for military purposes was heightened by its location, at least partly inside a mountain and next to a military base. Iran has said it built the facility in such a way only to ensure continuity of its nuclear activities in case of an attack.

Reuters:

- The head of the U.S. Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. said on Sunday that she wanted to end the "too big to fail" doctrine and shrink the shadow banking system that operates outside the reach of regulators. FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair, speaking to the Institute of International Finance meeting here, said a U.S. proposal to create the authority to shut down failing systemically important financial firms may need to be extended to insurers and hedge funds. "We need to end 'too big to fail' and this needs to be an overarching policy that applies to everyone," Bair said. Bair said she believed that bank holding companies with subsidiaries that are shut down by regulators also should be made to pay the price of failure by being subject to the same wind-down process. "I believe that the new regime should apply to all bank holding companies that are more than just shells and their affiliates regardless or not whether they are considered to be systemic risks," she said, adding that including only systemically important firms in the shut-down regime could reinforce the 'too big to fail' doctrine.

- If the stock market bulls are right, U.S. third-quarter corporate earnings could show revenue kicked into gear after some disappointing numbers last quarter, sustaining the rally. As the reporting period approaches, analysts said economic growth in the quarter could lift companies' sales in contrast to the previous quarter, when revenue lagged bottom-line earnings. "The key is revenue. I think (it) will surprise. It will grow from the second quarter along with GDP, and I think that's what investors are going to focus on," said Jeff Kleintop, chief market strategist at LPL Financial in Boston.

- A U.S.-led consortium has entered the race to buy Volvo from Ford (F), the Financial Times reported, in a challenge to China's Geely Automotive, which confirmed its interest in the money-losing Swedish carmaker last month.

- NetApp Inc's (NTAP) chief executive told Barron's in an interview that selling the data storage company might make sense at some point in the future. "This is America and everything has its price," Chief Executive Tom Georgens told the financial newspaper. "At some point, it might make sense."

Financial Times:

- Goldman Sachs(GS) stands to receive a payment of $1bn – while US taxpayers would lose $2.3bn – if embattled commercial lender CIT files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, people familiar with the matter said. The payment stems from the structure of a $3bn rescue finance package that Goldman extended to CIT on June 6 2008, about five months before the Treasury bought $2.3bn in CIT preferred shares to prop it up at the height of the crisis. The potential loss for taxpayers would be the biggest to crystalize so far from the government’s capital injection plan for banks. The agreement with Goldman states that if CIT defaults or goes bankrupt, it “would be required to pay a make-whole amount” that totals $1bn, the people familiar with the matter said. In the event of bankruptcy, Goldman would reap more than $1bn because it also holds credit insurance that would be paid off.

- Lakshmi Mittal is close to pulling out of a $20bn plan to build two large steel plants in India – the centerpiece of efforts by one of the world’s most prominent industrialists to expand in the country of his birth. Delays in persuading farmers and others to sell the land he needs for the developments in the states of Jharkand and Orissa are “unacceptable”, the chairman and main owner of the ArcelorMittal steel company told the FT. Although Mr Mittal said he was still committed to building at least one steel plant in India, abandoning his plan to have two sites producing between them about 24m tons of steel a year by around 2015 would be a big blow.

- A sweeping process of democratization is opening up the investment landscape to an unprecedented array of participants. Hitherto secretive hedge fund managers are racing to launch vehicles aimed at the smallest of retail investors, while once hidebound traditional asset managers are rolling out complex absolute return and equity long/short structures to fight for a share of potentially lucrative markets.UK broker. “They have suddenly had a shock. “Their so called high net worth clients have disappeared in many cases. They are realizing having two dozen high net worth clients is not as good as having 5,000 retail investors. The quality of retail money is better. It’s much more sticky money.” At the same time large institutional investors are increasingly planning to venture into previously niche asset classes such as infrastructure, private equity and hedge funds in a search for greater diversification and stronger returns. However, the wholesale shift is raising fears that investors are being clobbered with far higher fees, lining the pockets of the industry but potentially sharply reducing investment returns. “The hedge fund industry was dead snobby to us retail,” said Mark Dampier, head of research at Hargreaves Lansdown, a large

TimesOnline:
- Iran has the know-how to produce a nuclear bomb and may already have tested a detonation system small enough to fit into the warhead of a medium-range missile, according to confidential papers. The “secret annexe” to this year’s International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) report on Iran summarises information submitted by intelligence agencies about the country’s work on warheads, detonators and nuclear fuel enrichment. It is based partly on evidence thought to have been smuggled out of Iran by the wife of a spy recruited by German intelligence. The papers conclude that Iran already “has sufficient information to be able to design and produce a workable implosion nuclear device”, or atom bomb. The finding goes beyond America’s public stance and may complicate its efforts at talks in Geneva to prevent Iran acquiring nuclear weapons.

Automobilwoche:

- Volkswagen AG, Europe’s biggest carmaker, expect German car sales to contract by almost 20% next year after the German “cash-for-clunkers” program expired, citing an interview with Christian Klingler, sales chief for the VW brand.

Yonhap News:

- North Korea has up to 5,000 tons of chemical weapons, citing a document submitted by South Korea’s Ministry of National Defense to a ruling party lawmaker. The communist nation can also independently produce 13 kinds of biological weapons, including anthrax, cholera and typhus, according to the report.

Weekend Recommendations
Barron's:
- Made positive comments on (TGT), (JNJ), (DIS), (BTU), (AVII) and (AGO).

Citigroup:

- Upgraded (PNW) to Buy, target $35, added to Top Picks Live List.

- Reiterated Buy on (DOW), target $29.

- Reiterated Buy on (NLC), target $24, added to Top Picks Live List.

- Upgraded (CVG) to Buy, target $12.

- Reiterated Buy on (NVDA), target $19.

Merrill Lynch:

- Raised Toshiba to Buy.

Night Trading
Asian indices are -.75% to +.25% on avg.

Asia Ex-Japan Inv Grade CDS Index 120.50 -4.0 basis points.
S&P 500 futures +.33%.
NASDAQ 100 futures +.38%.

Morning Preview
BNO Breaking Global News of Note

Google Top Stories

Bloomberg Breaking News

Yahoo Most Popular Biz Stories

MarketWatch News Viewer

Asian Financial News

European Financial News

Latin American Financial News

MarketWatch Pre-market Commentary

U.S. Equity Preview

TradeTheNews Morning Report

Briefing.com In Play

SeekingAlpha Market Currents

Briefing.com Bond Ticker

US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Stock Quote/Chart
WSJ Intl Markets Performance
Commodity Futures
IBD New America
Economic Preview/Calendar
Earnings Calendar

Conference Calendar

Who’s Speaking?
Upgrades/Downgrades

Politico Headlines
Rasmussen Reports Polling

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
- (RPM)/.44

- (MOS)/.34

- (RBN)/.20

- (AGP)/.56

Upcoming Splits

- (DEER) 2-for-1

Economic Releases

10:00 am EST

- ISM Non-Manufacturing for September is estimated to rise to 50.0 versus 448.4 in August.

Other Potential Market Movers
- The Fed’s Dudley speaking, JMP Securities Healthcare Conference and the (CRM) Investor Event could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and commodity stocks in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.

Weekly Outlook

Posted by Gary .....at 10:31 AM

Click here for Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters.

Click here for Stocks to Watch Monday by MarketWatch.

Click here for TradeTheNews.com Weekly Calendar.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week modestly higher on less financial sector pessimism, diminishing economic worries, lower energy prices, bargain-hunting and investment manager performance anxiety. My trading indicators are giving mixed signals and the Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.

Friday, October 02, 2009

Market Week in Review

Posted by Gary .....at 7:50 PM

S&P 500 1,025.21 -1.84%*

Click here for the Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

*5-Day Change

Weekly Scoreboard*

Posted by Gary .....at 7:18 PM

Indices
S&P 500 1,025.21 -1.84%
DJIA 9,487.67 -1.84%
NASDAQ 2,048.11 -2.05%
Russell 2000 580.20 -3.13%
Wilshire 5000 10,469.55 -1.95%
Russell 1000 Growth 452.91 -1.35%
Russell 1000 Value 527.16 -2.41%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 633.47 +.25%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 701.55 -2.52%
Morgan Stanley Technology 515.78 -1.61%
Transports 3,692.73 -3.04%
Utilities 367.25 -2.59%
MSCI Emerging Markets 38.00 -.47%

Lyxor L/S Equity Long Bias Index 951.37 +.14%

Lyxor L/S Equity Variable Bias Index 850.69 -.60%

Lyxor L/S Equity Short Bias Index 1,047.08 +.63%

Sentiment/Internals
NYSE Cumulative A/D Line +57,181 -2.18%
Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index +183 +7.02%
Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 19.0 +18.75%
CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position +42,142 -32.27%

CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,178,475 +4.77%
Total Put/Call 1.10 +13.40%
OEX Put/Call 1.04 -18.11%
ISE Sentiment 126.0 +24.75%
NYSE Arms 1.05 -39.30%
Volatility(VIX) 28.68 +11.99%
G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 12.62 -.16%
Smart Money Flow Index 9,226.90 -1.48%

Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $3.429 Trillion -1.5%
AAII % Bulls 44.0 +12.56%
AAII % Bears 35.0 -21.44%

Futures Spot Prices
CRB Index 252.87 +.95%

Crude Oil 69.65 +5.54%
Reformulated Gasoline 173.59 +6.19%
Natural Gas 4.72 -4.55%
Heating Oil 178.85 +4.62%
Gold 1,003.70 +1.17%
Bloomberg Base Metals 172.41 -1.11%
Copper 268.30 -2.03%

US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 258.33 USD/Ton -.64%

China Hot Rolled Domestic Steel Sheet 3,424 Yuan/Ton -3.63%

S&P GSCI Agriculture 296.97 -.91%

Economy
ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index 127.10 -.63%

Citi US Economic Surprise Index +30.0 -40.48%

Fed Fund Futures imply 64.9% chance of no change, 35.1% chance of 25 basis point cut on 11/04

US Dollar Index 77.04 +.29%

Yield Curve 235.0 +3 basis points

10-year US Treasury Yield 3.22% -10 basis points

Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet $2.123 Trillion -.83%

U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 21.0 unch.

10-year TIPS Spread 1.71% -5 basis points
TED Spread 20.0 +1 basis point
N. Amer. Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 109.79 +12.03%

Euro Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 76.82 +15.25%
Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 274.89 -.25%
CMBS Super Senior AAA 10-year Treasury Spread 494.0 unch.

M1 Money Supply $1.640 Trillion -1.86%

Business Loans 688.20 -1.42%
4-Wk MA of Jobless Claims 548,000 -1.1%

Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 4.60% unch.
Average 30-year Mortgage Rate 4.94% -10 basis points
Weekly Mortgage Applications 649,600 -2.83%

ABC Consumer Confidence -46 unch.
Weekly Retail Sales -2.30% unch.
Nationwide Gas $2.47/gallon -.06/gallon
US Cooling Demand Next 7 Days 12.0% below normal
Baltic Dry Index 2,284 +5.59%

Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to US Gulf Coast) 25.0 -9.09%

Rail Freight Carloads 205,627 +.24%

Iraqi 2028 Govt Bonds 75.27 -.04%

Best Performing Style
Large-Cap Growth -1.35%

Worst Performing Style
Small-Cap Value -3.41%

Leading Sectors
I-Banks +1.07%

Education +.75%

Insurance -.18%

Retail -.29%
Papers -.28%

Lagging Sectors
Homebuilders -4.48%
Semis -4.64%
Alt Energy -4.73%
Gaming -4.82%
Airlines -7.80%

One-Week High-Volume Gainers

One-Week High-Volume Losers