Thursday, June 03, 2010

Today's Headlines


Bloomberg:

  • U.S. Considering China Yuan Probe, Locke Letter Says. The U.S. is considering investigating charges from U.S. businesses that the undervalued Chinese currency is an illegal trade subsidy, Reuters reported, citing a letter from U.S. Commerce Secretary Gary Locke.
  • The Baltic Dry Index, a measure of commodity shipping costs, declined for a fifth session in London as grain shipments weakened and the market reacted to a drop in freight derivative contracts yesterday. The index fell 2.7% to 3,933 points, according to the Baltic Exchange. The largest decline was for iron ore-carrying capesizes and charter rates for all vessel sizes tracked by the exchange fell. Forward freight agreements, contracts to bet on, or hedge, future charter costs for capesizes, fell 3% to $50,906 a day yesterday for April-to-June. Actual charter rates for the ships fell 4.1% to $56,912, it said today. Demand for smaller carriers may be falling because of reduced grain shipments from South America, Jeffrey Landsberg, president of Commodore Research, said by phone from NY.
  • OPEC is set to reduce shipments this month as demand from Europe and the US remains weak, according to tanker-tracker Oil Movements. OPEC will ship 23.47 million barrels a day in the four weeks to June 19, the consultant said. That's down from a revised figure of 23.6 million in the four weeks to June 5. "The indications are that growth is certainly not strong in the West and temporarily not that strong in the East," Oil Movements founder Roy Mason said.
  • EU's Barroso Says 'Hungary Is in a Very Delicate Situation'. European Commission President Jose Barroso warned Hungary against easing up on efforts to cut the budget deficit. “Our message to Hungary and to other countries is that they should accelerate their fiscal consolidation and not to relax consolidation,” Barroso told reporters in Brussels today after meeting Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban. “Hungary is in a very delicate situation, let’s put it clear. No complacency.”
  • Copper Falls Most in a Week on Concern China Demand to Dwindle. Copper prices fell the most in a week on concern that demand for the metal will decline in China, the world’s biggest consumer. Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. and Codelco, the world’s largest producers, said China’s plans to curb its economy threaten to reduce demand. Copper prices are down 20 percent from a 20-month high in April as China acted to cool its property market and Europe struggled with fiscal woes. “China is the biggest user, so any concerns about demand there will continue to be a drag on copper,” said Donald Selkin, the chief market strategist at National Securities Corp. in New York. “People are more concerned about what’s happening overseas in Asia and Europe than with what’s going in the U.S.” Copper futures for July delivery fell 9.4 cents, or 3.1 percent, to $2.9465 a pound on the Comex in New York, the biggest drop for a most-active contract since May 25.
  • Lockhart Says Rates May Rise With Unemployment High.
  • U.S. States Plan More Spending Restraint Amid Curtailed Revenue. U.S. states reduced spending for a second consecutive year as the worst U.S. recession since the 1930s cut tax revenue, a survey by two associations found. Governors may struggle to raise spending in fiscal 2011, which begins July 1 for 46 states, as they close deficits without the aid of federal stimulus money that runs out this year, the report by the National Governors Association and National Association of State Budget Officers said.
  • North Korea Says War With South Korea Could Begin 'Any Moment'.
  • Offshore Drilling Applications Must Be Resubmitted, U.S. Says. Oil and gas producers seeking permission to drill in Gulf of Mexico waters less than 500 feet deep must resubmit plans to comply with new safety and environmental requirements, the U.S. Interior Department said. The Obama administration is “pulling back” exploration plans and requiring updated information to “ensure that new safety standards and risk considerations are incorporated,” said Bob Abbey, acting director of the Minerals Management Service, in a statement.
  • Congress Prepares Bill to Remove BP Liability Limit.

Wall Street Journal:
CNBC:
  • Knight Capital Group Inc. CEO Thomas Joyce said about 40,000 trades were adjusted on May 6 "because the prices were wrong" after the DJIA temporarily plunged almost 1,000 points.
NY Times:
  • $239,000 Conductor Among M.T.A.'s 8,000 Six-Figure Workers. In an era of generous municipal salaries and union-friendly overtime rules, it may not come as a complete shock that there are thousands of Metropolitan Transportation Authority employees — 8,074, to be precise — who made $100,000 or more last year.
IBD:
Washington Times:
  • Federal Debt Tops $13 Trillion Mark. The federal government is now $13 trillion in the red, the Treasury Department reported Wednesday, marking the first time the government has sunk that far into debt and putting a sharp point on the spending debate on Capitol Hill. Calculated down to the exact penny, the debt totaled $13,050,826,460,886.97 as of Tuesday, leaping nearly $60 billion since Friday, the previous day for which figures were released. At $13 trillion, that figure has risen by $2.4 trillion in about 500 days since President Obama took office, or an average of $4.9 billion a day. That's almost three times the daily average of $1.7 billion under the previous administration, and led Republicans on Wednesday to place blame squarely at the feet of Mr. Obama and his fellow Democrats.
Beet.TV:
Washington Examiner:
  • Mexico Opens California Office to Provide ID for Illegals. The Mexican government is opening a satellite consular office on Catalina Island -- a small resort off the California coast with a history of drug smuggling and human trafficking -- to provide the island's illegal Mexican immigrants with identification cards, The Washington Examiner has learned. The Mexican consular office in Los Angeles issued a flier, a copy of which was obtained by The Examiner, listing the Catalina Island Country Club as the location of its satellite office. It invites Mexicans to visit the office to obtain the identification, called matricular cards, by appointment. Rep. Dana Rohrabacher, a Republican whose district includes Catalina Island, said handing out matricular cards will exacerbate an already dangerous situation. "Handing out matricular cards to Mexicans who are not in this country legally is wrong no matter where it's done," he said. "But on Catalina it will do more damage. It's a small island but there's evidence it's being used as a portal for illegals to access mainland California." Rohrabacher added, "If there were a large number of Americans illegally in Mexico and the U.S. consulate was making it easier for them to stay, Mexico would never permit it." The matricular consular identification card, is issued by the Mexican government to Mexican nationals residing outside the country, regardless of immigration status. The purpose is to provide identification for opening bank accounts and obtaining other services. But the cards are usually used to skirt U.S. immigration laws, since Mexicans in the country legally have documents proving that status, Immigration and Customs Enforcement officials said.
Boston Herald:
  • Mass. Home Deals Slip in May. In the first sign that home sales have suffered since the expiration of the $8,000 tax credit, pending sales were off in May for the first time in 10 months, according to the Massachusetts Association of Realtors. “It’s payback,” said Gus Faucher of Economy.com. “You’re seeing a temporary weakness in sales thanks to the expired tax credit, because people who would have bought in summer got pushed up to meet the deadline.” The number of single-family homes put under agreement last month slipped 3 percent to 4,663, compared to a year ago. Condominiums put under agreement in May fell by 6 percent to 1,894.
The Baltimore Sun:
  • Computer Simulates Gulf Oil Flow into Atlantic(video). Scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) have conducted computer simulations to suggest how oil from the BP Deepwater Horizon blowout in the Gulf of Mexico might flow into the Atlantic Ocean in the coming weeks. As has been suggested before, the researchers concluded that once the oil is swept up in the Gulf's fast-moving Loop Current, it will move quickly beyond the Gulf, in to the Gulf Stream, up the East Coast to Cape Hatteras, and from there far out into the Atlantic.
Military.com:
  • US May Send Aircraft Carrier to Korea. The United States is considering dispatching the massive aircraft carrier USS George Washington to the waters where North Korea allegedly sank a South Korean warship, defense officials said Wednesday. The deployment of the nuclear-powered carrier, one of the world's largest warships, would represent a major show of force by the U.S., which has vowed to protect South Korea and is seeking to blunt aggression from North Korea.
Politico:
  • White House Admits Effort to Avoid Primary. The White House acknowledged having made overtures to Colorado Senate candidate Andrew Romanoff about a possible administration appointment Thursday, the morning after the former state legislator said White House deputy chief of staff Jim Messina offered to consider Romanoff for three posts as an alternative to his Senate campaign.
Institutional Investor:
Huffington Post:
  • Summers Hears From Unions On Wall Street Reform. The White House is confident that a strong Wall Street reform package will emerge from conference committee negotiations between the House and Senate, senior administration officials told unions and consumer groups at a high-level meeting in the Old Executive Office Building Wednesday. Senior economic adviser Larry Summers; his deputy, Diana Farrell; and Eric Stein, Treasury's deputy secretary for consumer protection, met with the AFL-CIO, SEIU, consumer groups and other progressive organizations to update them on the status of negotiations and hear out remaining concerns.

Financial Times:
  • CFTC Chief Presses for Derivatives Transparency. Gary Gensler, chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, said on Thursday that moves by the derivatives industry to provide increased information about trades to regulators were “not enough”. Mr Gensler, who has emerged as a strong critic of the banks that dominate derivatives markets, said there needed to be more. “Bringing transparency to the regulators, however, is not enough,” he said at a conference organised by Sandler O’Neill. “We must also bring transparency to the public.” He said the OTC derivatives must become similar in transparency to the futures and securities markets. “The more transparent a marketplace, the more liquid it is and the more competitive it is and the lower the costs for hedgers, borrowers and, ultimately, their customers,” he said in prepared remarks. Mr Gensler said when Wall Street dealers enter into derivatives transactions with their customers, they benefit from knowing how much their last customer paid for the same deal, but such information is not publicly available. “They benefit from internalising this information,” he said. “The buyer and seller never meet in a centralised market. The lack of transparency enables Wall Street to profit from wider spreads between bids and offers.” “Transparency narrows bid-ask spreads and benefits the users of derivatives contracts,” Mr Gensler said. “That may be why some of the major Wall Street firms have been opposed to a trading requirement.” He added: “They have estimated that if the derivatives reform becomes law, they could lose billions in revenue – billions that their customers could save by getting better pricing on their derivatives transactions.” Mr Gensler also focused on the exemption clause from clearing when banks transact swaps with their end-user customers - one of the key items that will be debated as the financial reform legislation enters its next phase. “We should ensure that this exemption is not so broad that it includes transactions between two financial entities,” he said, noting data from the Bank of International Settlements which shows just 8 per cent, or $35,607bn, of interest rate swaps transactions were between non-financial entities and dealers. "As long as financial entities remain interconnected through their derivatives, one entity’s failure could mean a run on another financial entity and a difficult decision for a future Treasury secretary,” said Mr Gensler. “Every exemption for financial companies creates a link in the chain between a dealer’s failure and a taxpayer bailout.”
Telegraph:
  • The Gamblers Betting on Britain Going Bust. Hedge funds are wagering billions on the UK defaulting, says Edmund Conway. A small band of hedge funds is now building up a series of sizeable bets on Britain defaulting. In the past few weeks, they have placed more than $3 billion worth of bets on that precise outcome in the credit default swap market. History – three centuries without default – suggests that they will be proved wrong. But these are unprecedented times. Had Britain joined the euro, it would certainly have shared Greece's fate, and would have been too big to be bailed out. Avoiding euro membership, however, will not guarantee that Britain avoids default. We cannot afford to be smug for ever.
Financial Times Deutschland:
  • German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble has proposed increasing the so-called solidarity tax from 5.5% to 8%.
Nikkei:
  • There is a risk that the euro zone financial crisis could spread to the UK and the US unless Europe moves to normalize its banking system, Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee Member Adam Posen said. Banks in the euro zone need to become healthier, he said.

Bear Radar


Style Underperformer:

  • Large-Cap Value (-.29%)
Sector Underperformers:
  • Coal (-4.09%), Gold (-2.35%) and Oil Service (-1.53%)
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
  • PCLN, XEC, SM, GOLD, PUK, DLLR, PRXL, WPRT, UEIC, SHPGY, SCVL, THOR, BUCY, MATW, HMIN, COST, TSCO, CTRP, ACLI, AMGN, CAVM, BECN, GIFI, EDMC, DMND, WDR, TUC, IYM and FDO
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) TLAB 2) FMCN 3) AMAT 4) SWN 5) VMW
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) BP 2) NYT 3) AEO 4) RAD 5) JCP

Bull Radar


Style Outperformer:

  • Small-Cap Growth (+.86%)
Sector Outperformers:
  • HMOs (+1.95%), Gaming (+1.69%) and Semis (+1.41%)
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • KB, CSTR, VRSN, WBSN, SNWL, ROST, OVTI, LULU and BEZ
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) TLAB 2) KR 3) FNSR 4) CROX 5) JOYG
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) NOK 2) TGT 3) JOYG 4) AAPL 5) LTD

Wednesday, June 02, 2010

Stocks Surging into Final Hour on Less Economic Fear, Less Energy Sector Pessimism, Short-Covering, Bargain-Hunting


Broad Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance: Every Sector Rising
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • VIX 30.76 -13.45%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 75.0 -33.04%
  • Total Put/Call .89 +1.14%
  • NYSE Arms .36 -88.69%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 121.02 bps +.28%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 159.30 bps +1.22%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 150.33 bps +13.46%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 277.07 bps -1.83%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 43.0 -2 bps
  • TED Spread 40.0 +1 bp
Economic Gauges:
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .14% -1 bp
  • Yield Curve 253.0 +4 bps
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $145.40/Metric Tonne +.97%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index +15.80 -2.3 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.04% +4 bps
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei Futures: Indicating +187 open in Japan
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +29 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my Biotech, Medical, Retail and Technology long positions
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQQ) hedges and some of my (EEM) short
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long
BOTTOM LINE: Today's overall market action is very bullish as the S&P 500 trades near session highs despite rising sovereign debt angst and mostly weaker European shares. On the positive side, Airline, Hospital, Biotech, Semi, Steel, Oil Service, Energy, Oil Tanker and Coal stocks are significantly higher on the day, rising 3.0%+. Small-cap and cyclical shares are outperforming. Weekly retail sales rose +2.7% this week versus a +2.8% rise the prior week. This is down from a +3.9% increase the first week of April, but up from a +2.4% gain the first week of May. On the negative side, Education, Retail, REIT, Telecom and Defense shares are underperforming. (IYR) has underperformed throughout the day. Most cds indices are rising today, with the big jump in the Western Europe Sovereign CDS Index being an especially large negative. Copper isn't participating in today's equity rally. As well, the S&P GSCI Ag Spot Index is breaking down further into a bear territory, falling -1.3% and taking out its July 2009 low. This index is now down -21.4% in less than 5 months. It is also noteworthy that Chinese Wholesale Spot Pork is down -15.1% over the last 4 1/2 months and the Chinese government has announced a stockpiling program to prevent further price declines. Much of today's stock rally is related to short-covering and bargain-hunting in the worst-performing stocks. I would like to see the S&P 500 close convincingly above its 200-day moving average, with better volume and leadership and a breakdown in key cds indices before becoming more aggressive on the long side. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher into the close from current levels on short-covering, bargain-hunting, less energy sector pessimism, declining economic fear and diminishing financial sector pessimism.

Today's Headlines


Bloomberg:

  • Iran Selling 45 Billion Euros of Reserves for Dollars. Iran’s central bank began the first phase of the 45 billion-euro ($55 billion) sale of some of its reserves for dollars, the state-run Jaam-e-Jam newspaper reported, citing people it didn’t identify. The bank is selling 15 billion euros in the first of three stages, which will be completed by Sept. 22, the newspaper reported on its website on May 31. Iran will “substantially” decrease its oil sales in euros, the paper said. It informed Japan and other crude-oil customers of the change, Jaam-e-Jam said. The Persian Gulf country’s euro reserves are 55 percent of the total, and would be reduced to 20 to 25 percent after the sale is complete and after oil sales in euros have been reduced, the paper said. Iran’s shift out of euros has been prompted by the single currency’s decline, said Jaam-e-Jam, which is owned by the state broadcaster. Other central banks, including those of the Persian Gulf states, also are selling their euro reserves, it said.
  • Wealthy Investors Betting on Property, Stocks, Barclays Says. Wealthy investors globally are avoiding derivatives and hedge funds and turning to property and stocks following the global financial crisis and economic downturn, Barclays Wealth said, citing a survey.
  • German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said that high budget deficits are the main cause of the financial crisis.
  • Spain's $38 Billion Maturing Debt Fuels Sovereign Swaps Surge. Credit-default swaps on European sovereign debt rose for the third day as speculation Spain will struggle to refinance $38 billion of debt next month stoked concern the region’s deficit crisis may worsen. Swaps on Spanish government debt jumped 17 basis points to 270, according to CMA DataVision, nearing the record 274 basis points set two days before the European Union pledged $1 trillion on May 10 to ease the region’s budget troubles. The Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe Index of swaps on 15 governments rose 8 basis points to 156.5, approaching the all- time high of 161 on May 25. Spain, which lost its top grade from Fitch Ratings last week, has to refinance more than 48 billion euros ($59 billion) of debt between June and September, with the majority due next month, according to Bank of America Corp. data. “Worries over the amount of debt maturing over the next three months is casting a shadow over the market and clouding investor sentiment,” said Gary Jenkins, head of credit research at Evolution Securities Ltd. in London. Credit-default swaps on Portugal rose 18 basis points to 364, according to CMA. Contracts on Greece jumped 44.5 basis points to 766 while Ireland was up 22 at 283 and Italian swaps climbed 17 basis points to an all-time high of 249. The cost of insuring against losses on company debt also rose with the Markit iTraxx Crossover Index of swaps linked to 50 companies with mostly high-yield credit ratings climbing 11 basis points to 586.5, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.
  • German Cabinet Backs Short-Selling Ban to Help Euro. Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Cabinet backed a ban on naked short-selling of credit-default swaps on euro-area government bonds and stocks of German companies, as the government moved to anchor steps to stop speculators in law. The proposal, approved by ministers meeting in Berlin today, also gives Germany’s Finance Ministry and the BaFin regulator leeway to ban euro-related derivatives trades without seeking further endorsement by lawmakers, according to the text of the bill e-mailed by the Finance Ministry.
  • Copper Drops for Third Session as Manufacturing Growth Slows.
  • Japan May Face Fiscal Crisis in 15 Years, Komine Says. The Japanese government may suffer fiscal collapse in 10 to 15 years if the ruling Democratic Party of Japan maintains its expansionary spending policy, said Takao Komine, a professor at Hosei University and former bureaucrat. Even though “Japan’s fiscal conditions are very severe, people were saying voicing such concern was like crying wolf,” Komine, 63, said in an interview in Tokyo yesterday. “However, since the wolf has appeared in Greece, people have started worrying it may show up in Japan as well.” Global scrutiny of sovereign debt has intensified as fiscal deficits in Europe swell, a crisis Finance Minister Naoto Kan has said the government needs to learn from as Japan’s public debt approaches 200 percent of gross domestic product. He also said Japan’s debt may exceed households’ financial assets around 2020, causing uncertainty over whether Japanese will be able finance government bonds. “Japan’s finances may collapse eventually, but it’s a story that may take 10 years or 15 years,” said Komine, who also sits on a government committee that charts the economic cycle. “But if the market’s trust is shaken, such a tipping point will come earlier.”
  • AT&T Cuts Some Data Plan Prices, Ends Unlimited Offer.
  • Nasdaq Proposes Tiered Circuit Breakers to Supplement SEC Rules. Nasdaq OMX Group Inc. announced a proposal to temporarily halt trading for any stock it lists in the U.S. when its price moves a specified amount, supplementing a Securities and Exchange Commission plan to pause transactions during periods of volatility. The trading curb would be triggered by levels depending on the price of the stock, according to Wayne Lee, a spokesman for New York-based Nasdaq. For shares trading below $1.75, the threshold is a 15 percent rise or fall, he said. Between $1.75 and $25, it’s 10 percent; $25 to $50, 5 percent; and more than $50, 3 percent, he said. The SEC proposed a halt last month for Standard & Poor’s 500 Index companies that rise or fall at least 10 percent in 5 minutes.

Wall Street Journal:
CNBC:
NY Post:
  • NBC Boss Eyes $30M+ Exit Deal From Comcast. General Electric(GE) has finalized details of Jeff Zucker's exit deal from NBC Universal, according to sources familiar with the situation. Zucker will leave "a couple of months" after Comcast Corp. closes its agreement to acquire a 51 percent stake in the media giant from its current owners General Electric and Vivendi -- with an exit package of roughly $30 million to $40 million, under the proposed exit deal, those sources said.
Business Insider:
Zero Hedge:
Yahoo News:
  • Contaminated Cocaine Can Cause Flesh to Rot. Cocaine abusers -- already at risk for an abnormal heartbeat, blood pressure problems, hallucinations, convulsions and stroke -- can add another potential health complication to the list: rotting flesh.
FINalternatives:
BGR:
Chicago Sun-Times:
Rasmussen Reports:
  • Daily Presidential Tracking Poll. The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows that 26% of the nation's voters Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as president. Forty percent (40%) Strongly Disapprove, giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of -14 (see trends).
Reuters:

AFP:
  • Foxconn Technology Group confirmed another employee death in China. AFP cited China Labor Watch and a relative of the dead man as saying that Yan Li, 27, died on May 28 of exhaustion after working the night shift for a month at a plant in Shenzhen.
Interfax:
  • Terrorists are trying to gain access to nuclear, biological and chemical materials in Russia and other Commonwealth of Independent States countries, citing Alexander Bortnikov, head of Russia's Federal Security Service.
Handelsblatt:
  • European governments were too quick to adopt the euro and set up the currency union for ideological reasons, Oliver Williamson, co-winner of the 2009 Nobel Economic Prize, was cited as saying. While a shared currency makes sense, developing the European Union takes time, Williamson said. It's problematic that the euro deprives member countries of some monetary policy options, the professor emeritus at the Univ. of California at Berkeley said.
Cinco Dias:
  • Spanish banks are being charged more to borrow on the interbank market than lenders elsewhere, citing Banco Pastor SA Chairman Jose Maria Arias. Spanish banks are charged 1% to borrow overnight by foreign banks, compared with a global average of .3%.
China Ministry of Commerce:
  • China's government bought pork for stockpiling in an attempt to stabilize market prices and protect the interests of farmers, the Ministry of Commerce said in a statement on its website today.
Haaretz.com: