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Sunday, August 30, 2009
Weekly Outlook
Friday, August 28, 2009
Weekly Scoreboard*
Indices
S&P 500 1,028.93 +.27%
DJIA 9,544.20 +.40%
NASDAQ 2,028.77 +.39%
Russell 2000 579.86 -.28%
Wilshire 5000 10,491.53 +.27%
Russell 1000 Growth 450.19 +.11%
Russell 1000 Value 532.74 +.48%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 624.92 +1.88%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 718.85 -.31%
Morgan Stanley Technology 509.34 +.77%
Transports 3,723.29 -1.18%
Utilities 377.08 -.99%
MSCI Emerging Markets 36.08 -.10%
Lyxor L/S Equity Long Bias Index 932.02 +1.28%
Lyxor L/S Equity Variable Bias Index 845.27 +.52%
Lyxor L/S Equity Short Bias Index 1,085.58 -2.63%
Sentiment/Internals
NYSE Cumulative A/D Line +52,570 +1.39%
Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index +135 unch.
Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 15.0 -28.57%
CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position +39,532 +74.17%
CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,159,096 -1.20%
Total Put/Call .75 +27.12%
OEX Put/Call 1.55 +93.75%
ISE Sentiment 128.0 +9.40%
NYSE Arms .66 +127.59%
Volatility(VIX) 24.76 -1.0%
G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 12.73 -1.70%
Smart Money Flow Index 9,101.00 +.45%
Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $3.582 Trillion unch.
AAII % Bulls 34.0 -.21%
AAII % Bears 49.0 +22.50%
Futures Spot Prices
CRB Index 257.81 -.55%
Crude Oil 72.74 -1.48%
Reformulated Gasoline 206.18 +2.92%
Natural Gas 3.03 -5.69%
Heating Oil 186.03 -2.63%
Gold 958.80 +.32%
Bloomberg Base Metals 185.28 +3.39%
Copper 295.05 +1.74%
US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 239.33 USD/Ton +4.82%
China Hot Rolled Domestic Steel Sheet 3,864 Yuan/Ton -1.08%
S&P GSCI Agriculture 309.23 +2.41%
Economy
ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index 124.40 -.40%
Citi US Economic Surprise Index +66.60 +33.73%
Fed Fund Futures imply 72.0% chance of no change, 28.0% chance of 25 basis point cut on 9/23
US Dollar Index 78.37 +.41%
Yield Curve 243.0 -4.0 basis points
10-year US Treasury Yield 3.45% -11 basis points
U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 23.0 unch.
10-year TIPS Spread 1.71% -18 basis points
TED Spread 21.0 -3 basis points
N. Amer. Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 114.96 -.37%
Euro Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 81.66 -5.85%
Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 312.45 -4.04%
CMBS Super Senior AAA 10-year Treasury Spread 549.0 +4.57%
M1 Money Supply $1.658 Trillion -.32%
Business Loans 716.10 -.98%
4-Wk MA of Jobless Claims 566,300 -.8%
Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 4.60 -10 basis points
Average 30-year Mortgage Rate 5.14% +2 basis points
Weekly Mortgage Applications 566,400 +7.48%
ABC Consumer Confidence -45 +1 point
Weekly Retail Sales -4.40% unch.
Nationwide Gas $2.61/gallon -.02/gallon
US Cooling Demand Next 7 Days 16.0% below normal
Baltic Dry Index 2,421 -1.90%
Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to US Gulf Coast) 25.0 -9.09%
Rail Freight Carloads 193,207 -.15%
Iraqi 2028 Govt Bonds 69.13 -.44%
Best Performing Style
Mid-Cap Value +1.03%
Worst Performing Style
Small-Cap Growth -.39%
Leading Sectors
Disk Drives +6.54%
Computer Hardware +3.23%
Homebuilders +3.12%
Airlines +2.77%
Semis +2.76%
Lagging Sectors
Steel -1.76%
Road & Rail -1.93%
Tobacco -2.05%
Construction -3.06%
Coal -5.07%
Stocks Finish Slightly Lower, Weighed Down by HMO, Restaurant, Tobacco, Biotech and Oil Tanker Shares
Evening Review
BNO Breaking Global News of Note
Yahoo Most Popular Biz Stories
WSJ Today’s Markets
Today’s Movers
StockCharts Market Performance Summary
WSJ Data Center
Sector Performance
ETF Performance
Morningstar Style Performance
Commodity Futures
S&P 500 Gallery View
Timely Economic Charts
Most Recent Guru Stock Picks
CNN PM Market Call
After-hours Stock Commentary
After-hours Movers
After-hours Stock Quote
After-hours Stock Chart
Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour on Healthcare Reform Concerns, Profit-Taking, China Bubble Worries, More Shorting
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is slightly higher into the final hour on gains in my Technology longs and Financial longs. I have not traded today, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is mildly negative as the advance/decline line is lower, sector performance is mixed and volume is slightly above average. Investor anxiety is high. Today’s overall market action is slightly bearish. The VIX is rising .61% and is high at 24.82. The ISE Sentiment Index is below average at 127.0 and the total put/call is slightly below average at 77. Finally, the NYSE Arms has been running low most of the day, hitting .33 at its intraday trough, and is currently .53. The Euro Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index is falling 4.11% today to 80.0 basis points. This index is down from its record March 10th high of 208.75. The North American Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index is falling 1.03% to 114.96 basis points. This index is also well below its Dec. 5th record high of 285.99. The TED spread is falling 2.73% to 21 basis points. The TED spread is now down 445 basis points since its all-time high of 463 basis points on October 10th. The 2-year swap spread is unch. at 35.19 basis points. The Libor-OIS spread is falling another 3.19% to 17 basis points. The 10-year TIPS spread, a good gauge of inflation expectations, is down 2 basis points to 1.71%, which is down 95 basis points since July 7th. The 3-month T-Bill is yielding .13%, which is down 1 basis point today. Alt Energy, Financial, Technology, Steel, REIT and Road/Rail shares are substantially outperforming today, rising .75%+. Once again, the bears were unable to gain any real traction after a morning sell-off. Over the last week, the S&P 500 has been in a very tight, but volatile range, which is frustrating both the bulls and the bears. I tend to believe the next tradable move is higher, but the market’s mixed reaction to recent positive news events is a bit troublesome. As well, Chinese shares remain “heavy”. Chinese Iron Ore prices fell 10.71% this week, which is noteworthy. Nikkei futures indicate an +40 open in Japan and DAX futures indicate an +1 open in Germany on Monday. I expect US stocks to trade modestly higher into the close from current levels on short-covering, technical buying, less economic fear, diminishing financial sector pessimism and subdued long-term rates.
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