S&P 500 1,151.70+.54%
NASDAQ 2,081.39+.29%
Leading Sectors
I-Banks+2.44%
Iron/Steel+2.16%
Homebuilders+1.46%
Lagging Sectors
Defense-.12%
Drugs-.07%
HMO's-2.49%
Other
Crude Oil 34.17+92%
Natural Gas 5.22-3.03%
Gold 411.10+1.01%
10-Yr. Long-bond yield 4.02%-2.12%
U.S. Dollar Index 85.24-.7%
Market Movers
CMCSA down on $54.1B DIS acquisition as analysts cut ratings.
DISH up on buy-out speculation.
PCLN up on stronger than expected earnings announcement.
DKS up on raised guidance and 2-for-1 split announcement.
TASR up on short-covering after 3-for-1 split.
ZBRA up on better than expected 4th quarter earnings.
BGP up on better than expected 4th quarter earnings.
MUSE up on better than expected 4th quarter earnings.
MANH up on strong earnings report and raised guidance.
Mid-day News
U.S. stocks are rallying mid-day after Greenspan said the Fed can remain patient about raising rates even as the economy expands at a faster-than-expected rate. Greenspan said the U.S. economy may expand as much as 5% this year, the strongest growth in 20 years, and push the unemployment rate lower. This is 25 basis points higher than the Fed's last forecast. Comcast's plans to acquire Disney also dominated mid-day news as analyst's speculate on the deal's ramifications. Auto sales off to slow start in Feb. according to Goldman Sachs. PC Motherboard shipments in Jan. much higher than expected says Smith Barney. The latest available data show foreigners' appetite for stocks and bonds remains voracious. In November, purchases of US stocks and bonds jumped 217% to 87.6 billion, after a 560% jump in October according to The Street.com.
BOTTOM LINE: The advance/decline line is weaker than I would have hoped for on this Greenspan inspired rally, however the Portfolio is having a very good day. I made a few purchases in the morning bringing my net long exposure to 100%. The dollar is weak, interest rates are falling and cyclicals are strong on Greenspan's testimony. The recipe seems right for continued gains on the long-side. I will monitor the market's price action in the final hour before making any further changes.
Wednesday, February 11, 2004
Wednesday Watch
Earnings Announcements
Company/Estimate
BRCD/.02
CMCSA/.02
DCN/.39
DCTM/.13
FOX/.34
INVN/.29
MDT/.40
MHS/.46
ODP/.21
OSI/.58
PFCB/.28
WFMI/.57
ZBRA/.49
Splits
TASR 3-for-1
Economic Data
Greenspan report on economy and Fed policy to Congress at 10am est.
Late-night News
Kerry wins Virginia and Tennessee primaries. Aides say Clark is dropping out of presidential race. Treasury Secretary John Snow denounced OPEC's decision to cut oil quotas for the second time in less than 5 months. Cambodia may have first human bird flu case. China is preparing to open its newspapers, broadcasters and other media to private investment, the Financial Times reported. 1,341 Roman Catholic clergy members have been accused in the U.S. of molesting minors since 1950, according to the AP.
Late-Night Trading
Asian markets are mixed, ranging from -.5% to +.5%.
S&P 500 indicated -.03%.
NASDAQ indicated -.03%.
BOTTOM LINE: There isn't much in the way of late-night market moving news. All eyes on Greenspan tomorrow. I think he will say that he sees continued economic strength and an improving labor market. He will likely make it clear that the Fed will stay on hold until better job growth materializes. The market should like these comments and rally further. It is possible, but unlikely, that he will say a dramatic pick-up in job growth is imminent and prepare the markets for the ensuing rate hike. Bonds and stocks would likely fall under this scenario. Either way, the markets reaction to the news is more important than the actual news in determining which way we are headed over the next few weeks. I am 80% net long and will be looking to trade once the markets reaction to Greenspan's testimony becomes apparent.
Company/Estimate
BRCD/.02
CMCSA/.02
DCN/.39
DCTM/.13
FOX/.34
INVN/.29
MDT/.40
MHS/.46
ODP/.21
OSI/.58
PFCB/.28
WFMI/.57
ZBRA/.49
Splits
TASR 3-for-1
Economic Data
Greenspan report on economy and Fed policy to Congress at 10am est.
Late-night News
Kerry wins Virginia and Tennessee primaries. Aides say Clark is dropping out of presidential race. Treasury Secretary John Snow denounced OPEC's decision to cut oil quotas for the second time in less than 5 months. Cambodia may have first human bird flu case. China is preparing to open its newspapers, broadcasters and other media to private investment, the Financial Times reported. 1,341 Roman Catholic clergy members have been accused in the U.S. of molesting minors since 1950, according to the AP.
Late-Night Trading
Asian markets are mixed, ranging from -.5% to +.5%.
S&P 500 indicated -.03%.
NASDAQ indicated -.03%.
BOTTOM LINE: There isn't much in the way of late-night market moving news. All eyes on Greenspan tomorrow. I think he will say that he sees continued economic strength and an improving labor market. He will likely make it clear that the Fed will stay on hold until better job growth materializes. The market should like these comments and rally further. It is possible, but unlikely, that he will say a dramatic pick-up in job growth is imminent and prepare the markets for the ensuing rate hike. Bonds and stocks would likely fall under this scenario. Either way, the markets reaction to the news is more important than the actual news in determining which way we are headed over the next few weeks. I am 80% net long and will be looking to trade once the markets reaction to Greenspan's testimony becomes apparent.
Tuesday, February 10, 2004
Tuesday Close
S&P 500 1,145.54+.5%
NASDAQ 2,075.33+.72%
Leading Sectors
Oil Service+2.25%
Fashion+1.26%
Biotech+1.04%
Lagging Sectors
Disk Drives+.01%
I-Banks-.32%
Homebuilding-.61%
Other
Crude Oil 33.98+3.47%
VIX 15.94-2.75%
After-hours Movers
PCLN+7.5% after posting better than expected earnings.
MANH+7.6% after beating expectations and raising guidance.
SCMR-8.2% after earnings and revenue didn't meet expectations.
After-hours News
U.S. stocks rose modestly for the third day in four on optimism Greenspan will affirm investor's expectations of stronger economic growth with low inflation when he speaks tomorrow. Energy related stocks led the way higher today, as investors bid them up on news that OPEC would cut crude production April 1, thus keeping prices high. California's Democratic Party leaders endorsed the $15B bond sale that voters will cast ballots on in March, bolstering Governor Schwarzenegger's plan to help close deficits with the largest municipal debt sale in history.Accordingng to CNBC, Oracle won't get Justice Dept. approval for Peoplesoft merger. Ford(F) was raised to "overweight" and General Motors(GM) cut to "neutral" by JP Morgan after the close. Lastly, Dick's Sporting Goods(DKS) announced a 2-for-1 split.
BOTTOM LINE: I didn't make any changes to the Portfolio today, leaving it 80% net long. Action was muted ahead of Greenspan's testimony tomorrow. Financials were weaker than I would like to see. Energy prices could become a problem later in the year. Tomorrow's market reaction to Greenspan's speech is the key factor that will determine whether we are done with the recent correction or not. I will most likely shift my market exposure tomorrow.
NASDAQ 2,075.33+.72%
Leading Sectors
Oil Service+2.25%
Fashion+1.26%
Biotech+1.04%
Lagging Sectors
Disk Drives+.01%
I-Banks-.32%
Homebuilding-.61%
Other
Crude Oil 33.98+3.47%
VIX 15.94-2.75%
After-hours Movers
PCLN+7.5% after posting better than expected earnings.
MANH+7.6% after beating expectations and raising guidance.
SCMR-8.2% after earnings and revenue didn't meet expectations.
After-hours News
U.S. stocks rose modestly for the third day in four on optimism Greenspan will affirm investor's expectations of stronger economic growth with low inflation when he speaks tomorrow. Energy related stocks led the way higher today, as investors bid them up on news that OPEC would cut crude production April 1, thus keeping prices high. California's Democratic Party leaders endorsed the $15B bond sale that voters will cast ballots on in March, bolstering Governor Schwarzenegger's plan to help close deficits with the largest municipal debt sale in history.Accordingng to CNBC, Oracle won't get Justice Dept. approval for Peoplesoft merger. Ford(F) was raised to "overweight" and General Motors(GM) cut to "neutral" by JP Morgan after the close. Lastly, Dick's Sporting Goods(DKS) announced a 2-for-1 split.
BOTTOM LINE: I didn't make any changes to the Portfolio today, leaving it 80% net long. Action was muted ahead of Greenspan's testimony tomorrow. Financials were weaker than I would like to see. Energy prices could become a problem later in the year. Tomorrow's market reaction to Greenspan's speech is the key factor that will determine whether we are done with the recent correction or not. I will most likely shift my market exposure tomorrow.
Mid-day Update
S&P 500 1,145.99+54%
NASDAQ 2072.08+.56%
Leading Sectors
Oil Service+2.57%
Telecom+1.3%
Fashion+1.26%
Lagging Sectors
I-Banks-.44%
Disk Drives-.71%
Homebuilders-.89%
Other
Crude Oil 33.53+2.13%
VIX 16.05-2.07%
Market Movers
JNPR up on volume due to multiple upgrades from Pacific Crest,Raymond James, American Technology and Prudential.
ACDO up on 10-yr agreement with Medco to provide its specialty product lines to Medco members.
CHPC up on acquisition by Singapore-based ST Assembly Test Services. World's second largest provider of chip-testing services said it is betting on a "significant recovery" in demand.
FWHT down on earnings report and lowered guidance.
SHRP down on downgrade by WR Hambrecht.
Oil Service/Energy sectors up on OPEC production cut April 1.
Mid-day News
U.S. stocks are up modestly at mid-day on strength in energy and technology related shares. Volume is light ahead of Greenspan's testimony tomorrow. Iraqi police station blast kills 50, wounds dozens. General Motors, which plans to sell vehicles powered by low-pollution fuel cells in the U.S. by 2010, started up the first of 400 fuel cells planned for a test at Dow Chemical plant in Texas. Merrill Lynch announced a $2B stock buy-back program. OPEC will cut output on April 1. China halts U.S. poultry imports on avian flu concerns. Islamist extremists are being trained in terrorist camps in Pakistan and routed through Europe to Muslim communities in the U.S., the Washington Times reported. 400 terrorists have been or are being trained and dozens have already entered the U.S. according to the report. Dr. Atkins had a history of heart failure, heart attack and hypertension. He weighed 258 lbs at death.
BOTTOM LINE: Overall, a pretty good day. Seems like a pause before another upwards thrust. I haven't traded today. The Portfolio is performing well and is still positioned 80% net long. I will analyze the final hour trading to decide whether or not to make any changes.
NASDAQ 2072.08+.56%
Leading Sectors
Oil Service+2.57%
Telecom+1.3%
Fashion+1.26%
Lagging Sectors
I-Banks-.44%
Disk Drives-.71%
Homebuilders-.89%
Other
Crude Oil 33.53+2.13%
VIX 16.05-2.07%
Market Movers
JNPR up on volume due to multiple upgrades from Pacific Crest,Raymond James, American Technology and Prudential.
ACDO up on 10-yr agreement with Medco to provide its specialty product lines to Medco members.
CHPC up on acquisition by Singapore-based ST Assembly Test Services. World's second largest provider of chip-testing services said it is betting on a "significant recovery" in demand.
FWHT down on earnings report and lowered guidance.
SHRP down on downgrade by WR Hambrecht.
Oil Service/Energy sectors up on OPEC production cut April 1.
Mid-day News
U.S. stocks are up modestly at mid-day on strength in energy and technology related shares. Volume is light ahead of Greenspan's testimony tomorrow. Iraqi police station blast kills 50, wounds dozens. General Motors, which plans to sell vehicles powered by low-pollution fuel cells in the U.S. by 2010, started up the first of 400 fuel cells planned for a test at Dow Chemical plant in Texas. Merrill Lynch announced a $2B stock buy-back program. OPEC will cut output on April 1. China halts U.S. poultry imports on avian flu concerns. Islamist extremists are being trained in terrorist camps in Pakistan and routed through Europe to Muslim communities in the U.S., the Washington Times reported. 400 terrorists have been or are being trained and dozens have already entered the U.S. according to the report. Dr. Atkins had a history of heart failure, heart attack and hypertension. He weighed 258 lbs at death.
BOTTOM LINE: Overall, a pretty good day. Seems like a pause before another upwards thrust. I haven't traded today. The Portfolio is performing well and is still positioned 80% net long. I will analyze the final hour trading to decide whether or not to make any changes.
Tuesday Watch
Earnings Announcements
Company/Estimate
CKP/.17
HGSI/-.41
MANH/.22
MNST/.10
PCLN/.04
SCMR-.04
Economic Data
None of significance
Late-night News
North Korea denies it purchased nuclear secrets from Pakistani. Viacom is set to confirm that it will sell its majority stake in video-rental chain Blockbuster. The sale will most likely take place through a stock-swap offer to Viacom shareholders. US forces in Iraq apprehended Muhsin Khadr al-Khafaji, number 48 on the list of the 55 most wanted Iraqis. Vodafone, the world's largest mobile-phone operator, is looking at the idea of purchasing all of Verizon Communications, keeping the wireless business and selling the rest.
Asian markets are mostly unchanged.
S&P 500 indicated -.04%
NASDAQ indicated+.10%
BOTTOM LINE: Overseas markets are quiet for the most part. No significant market-moving news released late-night. Most likely another quiet day tomorrow ahead of Greenspan's testimony on Wed.
Company/Estimate
CKP/.17
HGSI/-.41
MANH/.22
MNST/.10
PCLN/.04
SCMR-.04
Economic Data
None of significance
Late-night News
North Korea denies it purchased nuclear secrets from Pakistani. Viacom is set to confirm that it will sell its majority stake in video-rental chain Blockbuster. The sale will most likely take place through a stock-swap offer to Viacom shareholders. US forces in Iraq apprehended Muhsin Khadr al-Khafaji, number 48 on the list of the 55 most wanted Iraqis. Vodafone, the world's largest mobile-phone operator, is looking at the idea of purchasing all of Verizon Communications, keeping the wireless business and selling the rest.
Asian markets are mostly unchanged.
S&P 500 indicated -.04%
NASDAQ indicated+.10%
BOTTOM LINE: Overseas markets are quiet for the most part. No significant market-moving news released late-night. Most likely another quiet day tomorrow ahead of Greenspan's testimony on Wed.
Monday, February 09, 2004
Monday Close
S&P 500 1,139.81-.26%
NASDAQ 2,060.57-.17%
Leading/Lagging Sectors
Oil Service+2.46%
Fashion+2.0%
Broadcasting+1.38%
Semis-1.01%
Airlines-1.03%
Networking-1.39%
After-hours Movers
LLTC up 3.4% after raising earnings guidance.
ESPD down 5.5% after earnings release.
After-hours News
US stocks fell for the first day in 3 as declines among health-care companies, some of this year's best performers, blunted the effect of a proposed $4B takeover in the networking-equipment industry on technology shares. OPEC should halt output above its quotas to prevent a drop in prices, a majority of ministers from the eleven-member group said. Mike Tyson, who earned $200M from his 20-year professional boxing career, had $5,553 left as of Dec. 31. CDC reports that elderly receive unsafe mediation from doctors in 8% of visits. Pakistan may prosecute its top nuclear scientist in the event he is found to have failed to provide full details about his involvement in selling atomic secrets.
BOTTOM LINE: Very quiet after-hours. Volume was light today. It wasn't the kind of follow-through I was looking for. It is likely that investors are waiting for confirmation from Greenspan on Wed. before moving further into equities. I took profits in a few names today on the close, leaving my net exposure to the market at 80%.
NASDAQ 2,060.57-.17%
Leading/Lagging Sectors
Oil Service+2.46%
Fashion+2.0%
Broadcasting+1.38%
Semis-1.01%
Airlines-1.03%
Networking-1.39%
After-hours Movers
LLTC up 3.4% after raising earnings guidance.
ESPD down 5.5% after earnings release.
After-hours News
US stocks fell for the first day in 3 as declines among health-care companies, some of this year's best performers, blunted the effect of a proposed $4B takeover in the networking-equipment industry on technology shares. OPEC should halt output above its quotas to prevent a drop in prices, a majority of ministers from the eleven-member group said. Mike Tyson, who earned $200M from his 20-year professional boxing career, had $5,553 left as of Dec. 31. CDC reports that elderly receive unsafe mediation from doctors in 8% of visits. Pakistan may prosecute its top nuclear scientist in the event he is found to have failed to provide full details about his involvement in selling atomic secrets.
BOTTOM LINE: Very quiet after-hours. Volume was light today. It wasn't the kind of follow-through I was looking for. It is likely that investors are waiting for confirmation from Greenspan on Wed. before moving further into equities. I took profits in a few names today on the close, leaving my net exposure to the market at 80%.
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