S&P 500 1,144.40 +.78%
NASDAQ 2,042.87 +.30%
Leading Sectors
Oil Service +3.79%
Energy +2.36%
Homebuilders +2.43%
Lagging Sectors
Networking -.68%
Nanotechnology -1.24%
Iron/Steel -1.43%
Other
Crude Oil 37.50 +1.38%
Natural Gas 5.83 +1.23%
Gold 399.20 +.66%
Base Metals 107.35 -.14%
U.S. Dollar 90.58 -.06%
10-Yr. Long-Bond Yield 4.43% -.09%
VIX 14.55 -1.49%
Put/Call .61 -6.15%
NYSE Arms .72 -32.08%
Market Movers
OSTK +11.0% on short-squeeze, optimism over Google IPO.
NGPS +38.77% after beating 1Q estimate and raising 04 forecast substantially.
VANS +28.27% after announcing purchase by VFC for $20.55/share.
BLUD +25.6% after FDA cleared its Galileo product for use in the U.S.
ISPH +19.8% after reporting positive results from Cystic Fibrosis Drug Study.
CVNS +22.5% after announcing purchase by FNF of 29% stake for $131M.
KRON +15.9% after beating 2Q estimates and raising 3Q guidance.
RNT +13.12% after beating 1Q estimates and raising 2Q forecast.
GLBC -22.4% after saying it is conducting a review of previous financial statements for 02 and 03 and expects to restate some results.
PIR -12.22% after saying April sales were below expectations.
CAMP -27.0% after beating 1Q estimates, but announcing it was being served with complaint alleging certain violations of California's labor code.
Economic Data
Consumer Confidence for April 92.9 versus expectations of 88.5 and 88.5 in March.
Existing Home Sales for March 6.48M versus expectations of 6.20M and 6.13M in April.
Recommendations
Goldman Sachs reiterated Underperform on EDS and RKY. GS reiterated Outperform on EMC, BC, ENH, AXP, X, MET, ADP, CEN, PAYX, LEA, ATYT and PETC. Citi SmithBarney says to swap out of EMN and into NCX. Citi rated CMLS Buy, target $27. Citi added CKFR to Small/Mid-Cap Focus List, replacing FIC. CVS and WAG rated Buy at Deutsche Bank, targets $47 and $37 repectively. NRMX rated Sector Outperform at CIBC, target $33. RTEC cut to Underperform at CIBC. TSA rated Buy at Merrill, target $48. MEE raised to Outperform at CSFB, target $32. CB and WRI raised to Buy at Legg Mason. R cut to Underperform at Bear Stearns. Jim Cramer, of TheStreet.com, thinks UNH purchase of OHP is very good strategic move, target $100 on UNH. TheStreet.com has a positive column on MSFT, target mid-30's.
Mid-day News
U.S. stocks are higher mid-day on a better-than-expected Consumer Confidence report, falling interest rates and strong corporate earnings. Yum! Brands's KFC will start selling oven-roasted chicken, part of an attempt to attract more health-conscious consumers wary of the fast-food chain's fried food, USA Today reported. Interpublic Group won an advertising contract to help promote Verizon Wireless, the Wall Street Journal reported. OPEC may boost its target crude price by 30%, Bloomberg reported. Janus Capital may pay about $200M, including fee reductions, to settle allegations that it allowed clients to engage in improper mutual-fund trading, Bloomberg reported. "Housing sales are likely to remain very strong, even with higher rates, because of a strong economy and a rebounding labor market," said Steven Wood, chief economist at Insight Economics. Confidence in the U.S. economy rose more than expected this month as strong job growth boosted sentiment about current conditions to the highest in almost 2 years, Bloomberg reported. General Motors, Ford, DaimlerChrysler and more than 100 companies and universities will get a share of $350M in grants to design autos that run on hydrogen, U.S. Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham said.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is down slightly today as one of my biotech longs is falling and other longs are mixed. I am disappointed in the breadth of today's rally and continued relative weakness in technology shares. However, the bond market's reaction to very positive economic reports the last 2 days is a big positive. I took profits in a few long positions this morning, bringing the Portfolio's market exposure to 75% net long.
Tuesday, April 27, 2004
Tuesday Watch
Earnings Announcements
Company/Estimate
ABGX/-.50
AGR/A/.01
AMT/-.16
ABI/.21
AGI/.48
AV/.07
BHI/.25
BJS/.41
COHR/.06
FLEX/.10
IMCL/.16
LLL/.64
LMT/.53
MXIM/.31
MNST/.10
MSTR/.29
NET/.11
RFMD/.04
SINA/.27
SONS/.01
VZ/.57
UTSI/.39
Splits
ARO 3-for-2
BKST 3-for-2
Economic Data
Consumer Confidence for April estimated at 88.5 versus 88.3 in March.
Existing Home Sales for March estimated at 6.2M versus 6.12M in February.
Recommendations
Goldman Sachs reiterated Underperform on SMP, VRTX and T. GS reiterated Outperform on ENH, DNA and SBC.
Late-Night News
Asian indices are mixed as strength in Hong Kong is being offset by weakness in Taiwan. Starbucks Chairman Howard Schultz said the largest U.S. coffee-shop chain by market value doesn't plan to increase drink prices even as the cost of coffee and milk rises, CNBC reported. China may take more steps to try to curb Shanghai's real estate prices by forcing developers to keep prices stable for large lots of property put up for sale, the Financial Times reported. A foiled chemical attack in Jordan, linked to al-Qaeda, could have killed 80,000. The chemical explosives were 20 times more powerful than the bomb used in Oklahoma City, ABC News reported.
Late-Night Trading
Asian Indices -1.25% to +1.25%.
S&P 500 indicated +.04%.
NASDAQ indicated unch.
BOTTOM LINE: I expect U.S. stocks to open higher tomorrow on a better-than-expected Consumer Confidence report and strong corporate earnings reports. The Portfolio is 100% net long and I will look to add select tech long positions on any unexpected morning weakness.
Company/Estimate
ABGX/-.50
AGR/A/.01
AMT/-.16
ABI/.21
AGI/.48
AV/.07
BHI/.25
BJS/.41
COHR/.06
FLEX/.10
IMCL/.16
LLL/.64
LMT/.53
MXIM/.31
MNST/.10
MSTR/.29
NET/.11
RFMD/.04
SINA/.27
SONS/.01
VZ/.57
UTSI/.39
Splits
ARO 3-for-2
BKST 3-for-2
Economic Data
Consumer Confidence for April estimated at 88.5 versus 88.3 in March.
Existing Home Sales for March estimated at 6.2M versus 6.12M in February.
Recommendations
Goldman Sachs reiterated Underperform on SMP, VRTX and T. GS reiterated Outperform on ENH, DNA and SBC.
Late-Night News
Asian indices are mixed as strength in Hong Kong is being offset by weakness in Taiwan. Starbucks Chairman Howard Schultz said the largest U.S. coffee-shop chain by market value doesn't plan to increase drink prices even as the cost of coffee and milk rises, CNBC reported. China may take more steps to try to curb Shanghai's real estate prices by forcing developers to keep prices stable for large lots of property put up for sale, the Financial Times reported. A foiled chemical attack in Jordan, linked to al-Qaeda, could have killed 80,000. The chemical explosives were 20 times more powerful than the bomb used in Oklahoma City, ABC News reported.
Late-Night Trading
Asian Indices -1.25% to +1.25%.
S&P 500 indicated +.04%.
NASDAQ indicated unch.
BOTTOM LINE: I expect U.S. stocks to open higher tomorrow on a better-than-expected Consumer Confidence report and strong corporate earnings reports. The Portfolio is 100% net long and I will look to add select tech long positions on any unexpected morning weakness.
Monday, April 26, 2004
Monday Close
S&P 500 1,135.53 -.44%
NASDAQ 2,036.77 -.63%
Leading Sectors
Biotechnology +3.25%
Utilities +1.01%
Energy +.55%
Lagging Sectors
Iron/Steel -1.43%
Networking -1.49%
Semis -2.71%
Other
Crude Oil 36.94 -.08%
Natural Gas 5.75 -.24%
Gold 396.90 +.08%
Base Metals 107.50 +.14%
U.S. Dollar 90.62 -.51%
10-Yr. Long-Bond Yield 4.43% -.54%
VIX 14.77 +5.42%
Put/Call .65 -2.99%
NYSE Arms 1.06 +32.50%
After-hours Movers
FWHT +20.1% after beating 1Q estimates and raising 2Q/04 guidance.
BLUD +10.4% after announcing that the FDA has cleared Galileo for marketing in the U.S.
PHM +3.5% after beating 1Q estimates and raising 04 forecast.
SLAB -4.86% on profit-taking after beating 1Q estimates and raising 2Q guidance.
CAMP-29.9% after beating 1Q estimates, but announcing it was being served with complaint alleging certain violations of California's labor code.
CNXT -3.29% after beating 2Q estimates and lowering 3Q guidance.
Recommendations
Goldman Sachs reiterated Underperform on GBTVK and Outperform on PMMAY.
After-hours News
U.S. stocks finished lower Monday as weak technology shares overshadowed soaring biotechnology stocks. After the close, the Wall Street Journal reported that UnitedHealth Group(UNH) is purchasing Oxford Health Plans(OHP) for about $4.9B. Oxford stockholders will receive .6357 UnitedHealth shares and $16.17 in cash for each share they own or about $56.79/share. Verizon probably added 1.1M subscribers in the first quarter after winning business from AT&T Wireless and local carriers including its parent, Bloomberg reported. Iraq's Governing Council, the U.S. and the U.N. will set up an electoral commission before the end of May to organize national elections that art to be held in Iraq by Jan. 31, 2005, Bloomberg reported. At least $1.1 billion in "commissions" were paid directly into U.N. coffers, supposedly to cover the cost of administering the $67 billion Iraqi oil for food scheme, while Saddam diverted funds intended for the poor and sick of Iraq to bribe foreign governments and prominent overseas supporters of his regime, London's Telegraph reported.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio rose slightly today and I did not make any changes on the close, thus leaving market exposure at 100% net long. The Biotechnology Index confirmed its March 5 breakout today on good volume. The BBH, Biotech HOLDRs Trust, is a good way to play the long side of this risky sector without the volatility associated with an individual stock, as one of our readers mentioned earlier in the day. I think one of the main things weighing on U.S. shares today was China. Chinese ADRs fell across the board on concerns that the economy is in for a hard landing and that SARS may become a problem again. I do not believe either of these views will prove to be correct, however I am closely monitoring the situation.
NASDAQ 2,036.77 -.63%
Leading Sectors
Biotechnology +3.25%
Utilities +1.01%
Energy +.55%
Lagging Sectors
Iron/Steel -1.43%
Networking -1.49%
Semis -2.71%
Other
Crude Oil 36.94 -.08%
Natural Gas 5.75 -.24%
Gold 396.90 +.08%
Base Metals 107.50 +.14%
U.S. Dollar 90.62 -.51%
10-Yr. Long-Bond Yield 4.43% -.54%
VIX 14.77 +5.42%
Put/Call .65 -2.99%
NYSE Arms 1.06 +32.50%
After-hours Movers
FWHT +20.1% after beating 1Q estimates and raising 2Q/04 guidance.
BLUD +10.4% after announcing that the FDA has cleared Galileo for marketing in the U.S.
PHM +3.5% after beating 1Q estimates and raising 04 forecast.
SLAB -4.86% on profit-taking after beating 1Q estimates and raising 2Q guidance.
CAMP-29.9% after beating 1Q estimates, but announcing it was being served with complaint alleging certain violations of California's labor code.
CNXT -3.29% after beating 2Q estimates and lowering 3Q guidance.
Recommendations
Goldman Sachs reiterated Underperform on GBTVK and Outperform on PMMAY.
After-hours News
U.S. stocks finished lower Monday as weak technology shares overshadowed soaring biotechnology stocks. After the close, the Wall Street Journal reported that UnitedHealth Group(UNH) is purchasing Oxford Health Plans(OHP) for about $4.9B. Oxford stockholders will receive .6357 UnitedHealth shares and $16.17 in cash for each share they own or about $56.79/share. Verizon probably added 1.1M subscribers in the first quarter after winning business from AT&T Wireless and local carriers including its parent, Bloomberg reported. Iraq's Governing Council, the U.S. and the U.N. will set up an electoral commission before the end of May to organize national elections that art to be held in Iraq by Jan. 31, 2005, Bloomberg reported. At least $1.1 billion in "commissions" were paid directly into U.N. coffers, supposedly to cover the cost of administering the $67 billion Iraqi oil for food scheme, while Saddam diverted funds intended for the poor and sick of Iraq to bribe foreign governments and prominent overseas supporters of his regime, London's Telegraph reported.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio rose slightly today and I did not make any changes on the close, thus leaving market exposure at 100% net long. The Biotechnology Index confirmed its March 5 breakout today on good volume. The BBH, Biotech HOLDRs Trust, is a good way to play the long side of this risky sector without the volatility associated with an individual stock, as one of our readers mentioned earlier in the day. I think one of the main things weighing on U.S. shares today was China. Chinese ADRs fell across the board on concerns that the economy is in for a hard landing and that SARS may become a problem again. I do not believe either of these views will prove to be correct, however I am closely monitoring the situation.
Mid-day Update
S&P 500 1,135.28 -.47%
NASDAQ 2,035.91 -.67%
Leading Sectors
Biotech +3.32%
Oil Service +.96%
Energy +.82%
Lagging Sectors
Networking -1.55%
HMO's -2.25%
Semis -2.93%
Other
Crude Oil 36.92 +1.26%
Natural Gas 5.75 +3.3%
Gold 396.60 +.23%
Base Metals 107.50 +.14%
U.S. Dollar 90.76 -.35%
10-Yr. Long-Bond Yield 4.43% -.63%
VIX 14.99 +7.0%
Put/Call .64 -4.48%
NYSE Arms 1.06 +32.50%
Market Movers
OSIP +127.0% after saying their experimental Tarceva drug improved survival for lung-cancer patients.
IGT -4.8% on profit-taking and concerns over slowing growth.
ABGX +19.0% as investors anticipate positive results on its cancer drug.
TXU +13.09% after agreeing to sell its Australian unit to Sinapore Power for $3.72B.
VALU +24.4% after saying it will pay a special, one-time dividend of $17.50 a share from retained earnings.
ONXX +16.4% as investors anticipate positive results on its cancer drug.
DNA +12.2% on partnership with OSIP.
SCSC +13.2% on continued rise after strong 3Q results and 4Q guidance.
FHCC -13.5% after cutting 1Q/04 guidance.
Economic Data
New Home Sales for March 1228K versus estimates of 1173K and 1128K prior month.
Recommendations
Jim Cramer, of TheStreet.com, had a positive column on cable stocks, favorites are CMCS/A, TWX and CHTR. Goldman Sachs think AMIS will report at high end of guidance. GS reiterated Outperform on DNA, AMR, SII, ADP, WMT, ALK, PFE, HD, BBY, SPLS, PETC, EBAY, KO and UTX. GS reiterated Underperform on PGL, FHCC, FISV, CR and HUM. GS upgraded gold industry to Outperform, sees 30% upside, favorites are NEM and PDG. GS upgraded PXD and XRX to Outperform. Citi SmithBarney reiterated view of Buying homebuilders on weakness. Citi reiterated Buy on CAT, target raised to $106. NSM and AKS rated Underperform at JP Morgan. MXIM, ISG, SIR and ADI rated Overweight at JP Morgan. HLT, LHO and HOT raised to Buy 2 at UBS. WC rated Outperform at CSFB, target $49. PPS cut to Sell at Bank of America. GM raised to Overweight at Lehman. HSY raised to Buy at Merrill, target $97. MTLG raised to Strong Buy at Raymond James, target $28.
Mid-day News
U.S. stocks are lower mid-day as weakness in Semiconductors and HMO's is more than offsetting the very strong Biotechnology sector. Comcast is considering a shareholder dividend and may offer to buy back stock, the New York Post reported. Roche Holding, Genentech and OSI Pharmaceuticals said their experimental Tarceva medicine extended the lives of lung-cancer patients who no longer responded to other treatments in trials. "This is the first time that any drug in this class has shown a survival benefit," Bill Burns, head of Roche's drug division, said in an interview. U.S. sales of new homes rose to a record 1.228 million annual rate in March, exceeding forecasts, as cheap financing and an improving job market persuaded Americans to invest in real estate, Bloomberg reported. A "dangerous situation" is developing in the Iraqi city of Najaf, where insurgents are stockpiling weapons in schools and mosques, reported Bloomberg. President Bush urged Congress to pass measures that would help provide every community high-speed Internet access, give Americans online access to their medical records with 10 years and expand federal efforts to develop hydrogen as an alternative fuel source, Bloomberg reported.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is up slightly today as one of my long biotechnology positions is up substantially, offsetting losses in other longs. I rotated out of a few semiconductor long positions and into a couple of new biotech positions, leaving the Portfolio with 100% net long market exposure. While it is positive that the bond market is rising on the exceptionally strong housing report, it is negative that semis are breaking down again. I expect stocks to stabilize shortly and begin moving higher into the close. However, if the major indices weaken on the close, I will likely cut market exposure to 75% net long.
NASDAQ 2,035.91 -.67%
Leading Sectors
Biotech +3.32%
Oil Service +.96%
Energy +.82%
Lagging Sectors
Networking -1.55%
HMO's -2.25%
Semis -2.93%
Other
Crude Oil 36.92 +1.26%
Natural Gas 5.75 +3.3%
Gold 396.60 +.23%
Base Metals 107.50 +.14%
U.S. Dollar 90.76 -.35%
10-Yr. Long-Bond Yield 4.43% -.63%
VIX 14.99 +7.0%
Put/Call .64 -4.48%
NYSE Arms 1.06 +32.50%
Market Movers
OSIP +127.0% after saying their experimental Tarceva drug improved survival for lung-cancer patients.
IGT -4.8% on profit-taking and concerns over slowing growth.
ABGX +19.0% as investors anticipate positive results on its cancer drug.
TXU +13.09% after agreeing to sell its Australian unit to Sinapore Power for $3.72B.
VALU +24.4% after saying it will pay a special, one-time dividend of $17.50 a share from retained earnings.
ONXX +16.4% as investors anticipate positive results on its cancer drug.
DNA +12.2% on partnership with OSIP.
SCSC +13.2% on continued rise after strong 3Q results and 4Q guidance.
FHCC -13.5% after cutting 1Q/04 guidance.
Economic Data
New Home Sales for March 1228K versus estimates of 1173K and 1128K prior month.
Recommendations
Jim Cramer, of TheStreet.com, had a positive column on cable stocks, favorites are CMCS/A, TWX and CHTR. Goldman Sachs think AMIS will report at high end of guidance. GS reiterated Outperform on DNA, AMR, SII, ADP, WMT, ALK, PFE, HD, BBY, SPLS, PETC, EBAY, KO and UTX. GS reiterated Underperform on PGL, FHCC, FISV, CR and HUM. GS upgraded gold industry to Outperform, sees 30% upside, favorites are NEM and PDG. GS upgraded PXD and XRX to Outperform. Citi SmithBarney reiterated view of Buying homebuilders on weakness. Citi reiterated Buy on CAT, target raised to $106. NSM and AKS rated Underperform at JP Morgan. MXIM, ISG, SIR and ADI rated Overweight at JP Morgan. HLT, LHO and HOT raised to Buy 2 at UBS. WC rated Outperform at CSFB, target $49. PPS cut to Sell at Bank of America. GM raised to Overweight at Lehman. HSY raised to Buy at Merrill, target $97. MTLG raised to Strong Buy at Raymond James, target $28.
Mid-day News
U.S. stocks are lower mid-day as weakness in Semiconductors and HMO's is more than offsetting the very strong Biotechnology sector. Comcast is considering a shareholder dividend and may offer to buy back stock, the New York Post reported. Roche Holding, Genentech and OSI Pharmaceuticals said their experimental Tarceva medicine extended the lives of lung-cancer patients who no longer responded to other treatments in trials. "This is the first time that any drug in this class has shown a survival benefit," Bill Burns, head of Roche's drug division, said in an interview. U.S. sales of new homes rose to a record 1.228 million annual rate in March, exceeding forecasts, as cheap financing and an improving job market persuaded Americans to invest in real estate, Bloomberg reported. A "dangerous situation" is developing in the Iraqi city of Najaf, where insurgents are stockpiling weapons in schools and mosques, reported Bloomberg. President Bush urged Congress to pass measures that would help provide every community high-speed Internet access, give Americans online access to their medical records with 10 years and expand federal efforts to develop hydrogen as an alternative fuel source, Bloomberg reported.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is up slightly today as one of my long biotechnology positions is up substantially, offsetting losses in other longs. I rotated out of a few semiconductor long positions and into a couple of new biotech positions, leaving the Portfolio with 100% net long market exposure. While it is positive that the bond market is rising on the exceptionally strong housing report, it is negative that semis are breaking down again. I expect stocks to stabilize shortly and begin moving higher into the close. However, if the major indices weaken on the close, I will likely cut market exposure to 75% net long.
Monday Watch
Earnings Announcements
Company/Estimate
ABC/1.20
CNXT/.03
EDS/.01
FWHT/.13
HUM/.41
PBI/.56
VECO/.08
ZMH/.51
Splits
CALM 2-for-1
Economic Data
New Home Sales for March estimated at 1173K versus 1163K in April.
Weekend Recommendations
Forbes on Fox had guests that were positive on PD, FCX, MOT, ZBRA, CVC, COX, CMCSA, VZ, FON, WM and mixed on PTV, MRK and UNH. Bulls and Bears had guests that were positive on PVX, KKD, GM, THC, LUV, MDT, mixed on HPQ, MSFT, CC, XRX, GS and negative on TASR. Cashin' In had guests that were positive on TRB, VIA/B, VIP, MBT and mixed on LEND and GENZ. Louis Rukeyser's Wall Street had guests that were positive on MMC, RD, UNP, COH, BR, PGR, CFC, COF, CAT, CNX, BTU, MEE, ACI, NFX and negative on financials, homebuilders and metals. Wall St. Week w/Fortune had guests that were positive on AMR, ALK, UTX, GR, HON, ABXA, BA, RHAT, MWAY, SII, HL, IWM, GE, AIG, PEP, MSFT, PFE and negative on JBLU. Barron's had positive columns on HAL, LGF and negative columns on the Nikkei and China.
Weekend News
Interest rates are creating a wall of worry for the markets, Bloomberg reported. Analysts' expectations for semiconductor industry growth this year continue to edge upward, with In-Stat/MDR predicting a 29 percent rise this year. Last month the Semiconductor Industry Association forecast a 19.4 percent growth year for the industry. California, Arizona, Montana and other Western U.S. states are at above-average risk for wildfires in 04, the Washington Post reported. 71% of Chinese workers earn between $96-$300/month, Xinhua News Agency reported. Cingular and other U.S. mobile-phone operators are increasingly marketing handsets and services to teens, who are more likely than adults to use features that cost extra such as text messages, cameras and games, the Washington Post reported. GM's sales to China rose 70% in the first quarter, Xinhua News reported. Google may have a market value of as much as $25 billion by the end of its first day of trading, the New York Times said. Google has picked CSFB and Morgan Stanley to lead the IPO, the Wall Street Journal reported. Apple Computer may be developing a line of digital mobile phones that use the Internet for transmitting calls, the New York Times said. Caterpillar workers represented by the UAW rejected the company's contract proposal, Reuters reported. Libya, a day after the U.S. lifted sanctions, said it brokered its first sale to an American oil company since 1986 -- a shipment of 2 million barrels of oil worth about $73 million, Bloomberg reported. Samsung raised its forecast for 04 industry wide handset sales for the second time this month, citing rising consumer demand for new models, Bloomberg reported. Crude oil futures rose in NY and London after attacks on Iraq's offshore oil export terminals over the weekend heightened concern about possible disruptions to supplies from the Middle East's third-largest crude producer, Bloomberg reported. Shares of Asian airlines are falling after China reported 4 new suspected SARS cases in Beijing, renewing concerns the disease may crimp leisure and business travel, Bloomberg said.
Late-Night Trading
Asian indices are mostly lower, -1.75% to +.25% on average.
S&P 500 indicated -.10%.
NASDAQ indicated -.17%.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is 125% net long heading into the week. U.S. stocks may open lower Monday morning on weakness in Asia from rising oil prices, SARS concerns and U.S. interest rate worries. I expect shares to rally later in the day on strong fundamentals and improving technicals.
Company/Estimate
ABC/1.20
CNXT/.03
EDS/.01
FWHT/.13
HUM/.41
PBI/.56
VECO/.08
ZMH/.51
Splits
CALM 2-for-1
Economic Data
New Home Sales for March estimated at 1173K versus 1163K in April.
Weekend Recommendations
Forbes on Fox had guests that were positive on PD, FCX, MOT, ZBRA, CVC, COX, CMCSA, VZ, FON, WM and mixed on PTV, MRK and UNH. Bulls and Bears had guests that were positive on PVX, KKD, GM, THC, LUV, MDT, mixed on HPQ, MSFT, CC, XRX, GS and negative on TASR. Cashin' In had guests that were positive on TRB, VIA/B, VIP, MBT and mixed on LEND and GENZ. Louis Rukeyser's Wall Street had guests that were positive on MMC, RD, UNP, COH, BR, PGR, CFC, COF, CAT, CNX, BTU, MEE, ACI, NFX and negative on financials, homebuilders and metals. Wall St. Week w/Fortune had guests that were positive on AMR, ALK, UTX, GR, HON, ABXA, BA, RHAT, MWAY, SII, HL, IWM, GE, AIG, PEP, MSFT, PFE and negative on JBLU. Barron's had positive columns on HAL, LGF and negative columns on the Nikkei and China.
Weekend News
Interest rates are creating a wall of worry for the markets, Bloomberg reported. Analysts' expectations for semiconductor industry growth this year continue to edge upward, with In-Stat/MDR predicting a 29 percent rise this year. Last month the Semiconductor Industry Association forecast a 19.4 percent growth year for the industry. California, Arizona, Montana and other Western U.S. states are at above-average risk for wildfires in 04, the Washington Post reported. 71% of Chinese workers earn between $96-$300/month, Xinhua News Agency reported. Cingular and other U.S. mobile-phone operators are increasingly marketing handsets and services to teens, who are more likely than adults to use features that cost extra such as text messages, cameras and games, the Washington Post reported. GM's sales to China rose 70% in the first quarter, Xinhua News reported. Google may have a market value of as much as $25 billion by the end of its first day of trading, the New York Times said. Google has picked CSFB and Morgan Stanley to lead the IPO, the Wall Street Journal reported. Apple Computer may be developing a line of digital mobile phones that use the Internet for transmitting calls, the New York Times said. Caterpillar workers represented by the UAW rejected the company's contract proposal, Reuters reported. Libya, a day after the U.S. lifted sanctions, said it brokered its first sale to an American oil company since 1986 -- a shipment of 2 million barrels of oil worth about $73 million, Bloomberg reported. Samsung raised its forecast for 04 industry wide handset sales for the second time this month, citing rising consumer demand for new models, Bloomberg reported. Crude oil futures rose in NY and London after attacks on Iraq's offshore oil export terminals over the weekend heightened concern about possible disruptions to supplies from the Middle East's third-largest crude producer, Bloomberg reported. Shares of Asian airlines are falling after China reported 4 new suspected SARS cases in Beijing, renewing concerns the disease may crimp leisure and business travel, Bloomberg said.
Late-Night Trading
Asian indices are mostly lower, -1.75% to +.25% on average.
S&P 500 indicated -.10%.
NASDAQ indicated -.17%.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is 125% net long heading into the week. U.S. stocks may open lower Monday morning on weakness in Asia from rising oil prices, SARS concerns and U.S. interest rate worries. I expect shares to rally later in the day on strong fundamentals and improving technicals.
Weekly Outlook
There are number of economic reports scheduled for release this week. As well, another heavy week of corporate earnings reports is on tap. Scheduled economic reports include New Home Sales, Consumer Confidence, Existing Home Sales, GDP, Employment Cost Index, Initial Jobless Claims, Help Wanted Index, Personal Income/Spending and Chicago Purchasing Manager. Consumer Confidence and GDP are the most important reports scheduled for release.
Zimmer Holdings(ZMH), BP(BP), Du Pont(DD), Imclone(IMCL), U.S. Steel(X), Verizon(VZ), Flextronics(FLEX), McDonald's(MCD), Monster Worldwide(MNST), Boeing(BA), Bristol-Myers Squibb(BMY), Comcast(CMCSA), Hilton Hotels(HLT), Electronic Arts(ERTS) and Ingram Micro(IM) are some of the more important companies that release quarterly earnings this week. There are also a few other events that have market-moving potential. The Fed's Moskow and ECB's Issing speak at a Fed Conference Monday. Finally, on Tuesday CIBC has its Biotech Conference and Greenspan speaks at the Washington Energy Conference.
BOTTOM LINE: It was good to see investor complacency drop last week with the AAII Bullish % falling 21.57% to 50.0%. The CRB breaking down through its 6-month uptrend line was positive as well. I would like to see the NASDAQ move through 2,060 on good volume to confirm last week's move. This should strengthen the broad market and set the indices up for a test of the recent highs. The stock market will once again key off the bond market. I expect both Consumer Confidence reports to exceed expectations and a blow-out GDP report on Thursday. I expect U.S. GDP growth for the first quarter to come in around 6.0%. This is significantly higher than the recently upwardly revised 5.0% estimate. The bond market's reaction to these very positive data points will likely direct stock prices throughout the week. It is probable the major indices will rise through mid-week, then decline as interest rates rise on the blow-out GDP report.
Zimmer Holdings(ZMH), BP(BP), Du Pont(DD), Imclone(IMCL), U.S. Steel(X), Verizon(VZ), Flextronics(FLEX), McDonald's(MCD), Monster Worldwide(MNST), Boeing(BA), Bristol-Myers Squibb(BMY), Comcast(CMCSA), Hilton Hotels(HLT), Electronic Arts(ERTS) and Ingram Micro(IM) are some of the more important companies that release quarterly earnings this week. There are also a few other events that have market-moving potential. The Fed's Moskow and ECB's Issing speak at a Fed Conference Monday. Finally, on Tuesday CIBC has its Biotech Conference and Greenspan speaks at the Washington Energy Conference.
BOTTOM LINE: It was good to see investor complacency drop last week with the AAII Bullish % falling 21.57% to 50.0%. The CRB breaking down through its 6-month uptrend line was positive as well. I would like to see the NASDAQ move through 2,060 on good volume to confirm last week's move. This should strengthen the broad market and set the indices up for a test of the recent highs. The stock market will once again key off the bond market. I expect both Consumer Confidence reports to exceed expectations and a blow-out GDP report on Thursday. I expect U.S. GDP growth for the first quarter to come in around 6.0%. This is significantly higher than the recently upwardly revised 5.0% estimate. The bond market's reaction to these very positive data points will likely direct stock prices throughout the week. It is probable the major indices will rise through mid-week, then decline as interest rates rise on the blow-out GDP report.
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