Indices
S&P 500 1,172.42 -1.58%
DJIA 10,442.87 -1.73%
NASDAQ 1,991.06 -1.26%
Russell 2000 615.27 -1.63%
DJ Wilshire 5000 11,558.65 -1.53%
S&P Equity Long/Short Index 1,027.75 -.63%
S&P Barra Growth 565.90 -1.02%
S&P Barra Value 601.15 -2.13%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 573.92 -.44%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 749.81 -2.42%
Morgan Stanley Technology 453.40 -1.88%
Transports 3,744.67 -.87%
Utilities 353.97 -1.64%
Put/Call .64 -42.34%
NYSE Arms 1.10 +17.02%
Volatility(VIX) 13.42 +.98%
ISE Sentiment 173.00 +24.46%
AAII % Bulls 23.23 -28.46%
US Dollar 84.16 +2.90%
CRB 306.88 -4.44%
Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 54.84 -3.70%
Unleaded Gasoline 159.92 +2.64%
Natural Gas 7.06 -2.19%
Heating Oil 154.84 -2.43%
Gold 425.00 -3.17%
Base Metals 127.52 -1.91%
Copper 145.60 -3.19%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.59% +1.86%
Average 30-year Mortgage Rate 6.01% +1.01%
Leading Sectors
Airlines +2.44%
Computer Services +2.43%
Hospitals +1.53%
Lagging Sectors
Commodity -3.79%
I-Banks -3.98%
Insurance -4.52%
*5-day % Change
Friday, March 25, 2005
Thursday, March 24, 2005
Mid-day Scoreboard
Indices
S&P 500 1,177.83 +.45%
DJIA 10,499.84 +.42%
NASDAQ 2,004.50 +.71%
Russell 2000 618.49 +1.05%
DJ Wilshire 5000 11,617.73 +.52%
S&P Barra Growth 568.86 +.39%
S&P Barra Value 604.37 +.48%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 575.70 +.15%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 753.40 +.36%
Morgan Stanley Technology 456.60 +.92%
Transports 3,756.23 +.64%
Utilities 354.53 +1.65%
Put/Call .62 -25.30%
NYSE Arms .76 +41.46%
Volatility(VIX) 13.15 -6.47%
ISE Sentiment 166.00 +39.50%
US Dollar 84.15 +.25%
CRB 306.84 +.11%
Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 54.40 +1.10%
Unleaded Gasoline 158.50 +.64%
Natural Gas 7.08 -.74%
Heating Oil 154.00 +.42%
Gold 425.20 -.05%
Base Metals 127.52 -1.0%
Copper 145.40 +.66%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.59% +.19%
Leading Sectors
Utilities +1.63%
Restaurants +1.56%
Computer Hardware +1.35%
Lagging Sectors
Foods +.07%
Insurance -.10%
Airlines -1.08%
Links of Interest
Market Internals
Movers & Shakers
I-Watch Sector Overview
NYSE Unusual Volume
NASDAQ Unusual Volume
NASDAQ 100 Heatmap
DJIA Quick Charts
Chart Toppers
Hot Spots
Option Dragon
Real-time Intraday Chart/Quote
S&P 500 1,177.83 +.45%
DJIA 10,499.84 +.42%
NASDAQ 2,004.50 +.71%
Russell 2000 618.49 +1.05%
DJ Wilshire 5000 11,617.73 +.52%
S&P Barra Growth 568.86 +.39%
S&P Barra Value 604.37 +.48%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 575.70 +.15%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 753.40 +.36%
Morgan Stanley Technology 456.60 +.92%
Transports 3,756.23 +.64%
Utilities 354.53 +1.65%
Put/Call .62 -25.30%
NYSE Arms .76 +41.46%
Volatility(VIX) 13.15 -6.47%
ISE Sentiment 166.00 +39.50%
US Dollar 84.15 +.25%
CRB 306.84 +.11%
Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 54.40 +1.10%
Unleaded Gasoline 158.50 +.64%
Natural Gas 7.08 -.74%
Heating Oil 154.00 +.42%
Gold 425.20 -.05%
Base Metals 127.52 -1.0%
Copper 145.40 +.66%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.59% +.19%
Leading Sectors
Utilities +1.63%
Restaurants +1.56%
Computer Hardware +1.35%
Lagging Sectors
Foods +.07%
Insurance -.10%
Airlines -1.08%
Links of Interest
Market Internals
Movers & Shakers
I-Watch Sector Overview
NYSE Unusual Volume
NASDAQ Unusual Volume
NASDAQ 100 Heatmap
DJIA Quick Charts
Chart Toppers
Hot Spots
Option Dragon
Real-time Intraday Chart/Quote
BOTTOM LINE: US stocks are modestly higher mid-day on an oversold bounce and GE’s earnings’ boost. The Portfolio is slightly lower as losses in my Homebuilding shorts and Gaming longs are more than offsetting gains in my Software longs. I exited a few longs and shorts from various sectors this morning, thus leaving the Portfolio’s market exposure Market Neutral. The tone of the market is modestly positive as the advance/decline line is higher, almost every sector is higher and volume is light. Small-caps are underperforming and measures of investor anxiety are mixed. Today’s overall market action is neutral considering recent losses, GE’s positive comments, the rise in energy prices and stabilization of interest rates. On the positive side, the AAII % Bulls plunged this week to 23.23%, the lowest level since Feb. 2003. I continue to see one more push lower over the next couple of weeks, creating a better, more durable bottom. I expect US stocks to trade modestly lower into the close on rising oil prices and traders flattening positions ahead of the 3-day weekend.
Today's Headlines
Bloomberg:
- General Electric raised its first-quarter earnings forecast to 37 cents to 38 cents a share, from 36 cents to 37 cents.
- Billionaire investor George Soros was found guilty of insider trading by a French appeals court, confirming a 2002 conviction.
- Russian President Putin, seeking to restore investor confidence after tax demands brought down OAO Yukos Oil, said he will end the government’s ability to reverse the state asset sales of the 1990s.
- Tokyo’s first rise in commercial property prices since 1991 is likely to add to Japan’s attractiveness for overseas real estate investors.
- US new-home sales rose 9.4% in February, the biggest increase in more than four years, as job and income growth spurred buying.
- General Motors’ debt rating may be lowered to high-risk or junk status in the next six months, prompting the sale of the residential mortgage and insurance units of GM’s finance subsidiary, Merrill Lynch said.
- The US dollar is rising for a sixth straight day against the yen, the longest streak in more than a year.
The Wall Street Journal:
- Moves by US companies such as GM, Ford and Caterpillar to reduce previously reported numbers for operating cash flow following guidelines from the SEC shows that “cash flow” is not as firm a concept as investors may have thought.
- President Bush is building alliances with some Democrats and other unlikely groups to gain support for saving Social Security.
- JP Morgan miscalculated its ability to fight a class-action suit by investors in WorldCom and paid $630 million more than the bank would have done otherwise.
- In the US, sales of beer will continue to lose ground to wine and distilled spirits, citing Morgan Stanley.
- The US Supreme Court is about to review a request by 28 entertainment companies to overturn lower court rulings that peer-to-peer networks aren’t legally responsible when used to illegally download entertainment.
The New York Times:
- The average price of a one-way coach class airplane ticket rose 10% since January as many airlines raised prices this week.
- Lockheed Martin’s C-130J planes, used by the US Air Force to deploy paratroopers and cargo, may be struck from the 2006 budget by Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld.
- PBS has canceled the 35-year-old financial program “Wall Street Week,” three years after viewers were upset by the departure of the show’s host.
AP:
- New Jersey and Colorado have proposed banning smoking in casinos, a move fought by the industry, which claims a prohibition would hurt income.
Washington Post:
- The Federal Election Commission indicated it plans a “non-intrusive” approach to regulating online political campaigning.
ThisDay:
- Nigeria’s oil worker unions aim to shut down the West African nation’s crude production during their planned three-day strike next month over working conditions.
- General Electric raised its first-quarter earnings forecast to 37 cents to 38 cents a share, from 36 cents to 37 cents.
- Billionaire investor George Soros was found guilty of insider trading by a French appeals court, confirming a 2002 conviction.
- Russian President Putin, seeking to restore investor confidence after tax demands brought down OAO Yukos Oil, said he will end the government’s ability to reverse the state asset sales of the 1990s.
- Tokyo’s first rise in commercial property prices since 1991 is likely to add to Japan’s attractiveness for overseas real estate investors.
- US new-home sales rose 9.4% in February, the biggest increase in more than four years, as job and income growth spurred buying.
- General Motors’ debt rating may be lowered to high-risk or junk status in the next six months, prompting the sale of the residential mortgage and insurance units of GM’s finance subsidiary, Merrill Lynch said.
- The US dollar is rising for a sixth straight day against the yen, the longest streak in more than a year.
The Wall Street Journal:
- Moves by US companies such as GM, Ford and Caterpillar to reduce previously reported numbers for operating cash flow following guidelines from the SEC shows that “cash flow” is not as firm a concept as investors may have thought.
- President Bush is building alliances with some Democrats and other unlikely groups to gain support for saving Social Security.
- JP Morgan miscalculated its ability to fight a class-action suit by investors in WorldCom and paid $630 million more than the bank would have done otherwise.
- In the US, sales of beer will continue to lose ground to wine and distilled spirits, citing Morgan Stanley.
- The US Supreme Court is about to review a request by 28 entertainment companies to overturn lower court rulings that peer-to-peer networks aren’t legally responsible when used to illegally download entertainment.
The New York Times:
- The average price of a one-way coach class airplane ticket rose 10% since January as many airlines raised prices this week.
- Lockheed Martin’s C-130J planes, used by the US Air Force to deploy paratroopers and cargo, may be struck from the 2006 budget by Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld.
- PBS has canceled the 35-year-old financial program “Wall Street Week,” three years after viewers were upset by the departure of the show’s host.
AP:
- New Jersey and Colorado have proposed banning smoking in casinos, a move fought by the industry, which claims a prohibition would hurt income.
Washington Post:
- The Federal Election Commission indicated it plans a “non-intrusive” approach to regulating online political campaigning.
ThisDay:
- Nigeria’s oil worker unions aim to shut down the West African nation’s crude production during their planned three-day strike next month over working conditions.
Economic Releases
- Durable Goods Orders for February rose .3% versus estimates of a .9% gain and a 1.1% decline in January.
- Durables Ex Transportation for February fell .2% versus estimates of a .3% gain and an upwardly revised .9% increase in January.
- Initial Jobless Claims for last week rose to 324K versus estimates of 315K and 321K the prior week.
- Continuing Claims rose to 2673K versus estimates of 2650K and 2642K prior.
- New Home Sales for February rose to 1226K versus estimates of 1150K and 1121K in January.
- Durables Ex Transportation for February fell .2% versus estimates of a .3% gain and an upwardly revised .9% increase in January.
- Initial Jobless Claims for last week rose to 324K versus estimates of 315K and 321K the prior week.
- Continuing Claims rose to 2673K versus estimates of 2650K and 2642K prior.
- New Home Sales for February rose to 1226K versus estimates of 1150K and 1121K in January.
Morning Buy/Sell Recommendations
Goldman Sachs:
- Raised FRNT and AWA to Outperform.
Smith Barney:
- Upgraded EL to Buy, target $52.
- Reiterated Buy on AMAT, target $22.
- Reiterated Sell on FRO, target $26.
- Reiterated Sell on SFL, target $16.
- Reiterated Buy on LEN, target $73.
- Reiterated Buy on DE, target $83.
- Reiterated Buy on CYH, target $39.
- Reiterated Sell on SNDK, target $22.
Banc of America:
- Removed AIG from Focus List and added NKE.
Bear Stearns:
- Raised ACXM to Outperform, target $29.
Lehman Brothers:
- Raised GAP to Overweight, target $18.
- Raised STX to Overweight, target $25.
- Rated DDS Underweight, target $24.
Thomas Weisel:
- Rated INPC Outperform.
Merrill Lynch:
- Reiterated Buy on XRTX, target $24.
UBS:
- Raised TTN to Buy, target $22.
- Added WMT and SLR to Select 20 List.
- Raised FRNT and AWA to Outperform.
Smith Barney:
- Upgraded EL to Buy, target $52.
- Reiterated Buy on AMAT, target $22.
- Reiterated Sell on FRO, target $26.
- Reiterated Sell on SFL, target $16.
- Reiterated Buy on LEN, target $73.
- Reiterated Buy on DE, target $83.
- Reiterated Buy on CYH, target $39.
- Reiterated Sell on SNDK, target $22.
Banc of America:
- Removed AIG from Focus List and added NKE.
Bear Stearns:
- Raised ACXM to Outperform, target $29.
Lehman Brothers:
- Raised GAP to Overweight, target $18.
- Raised STX to Overweight, target $25.
- Rated DDS Underweight, target $24.
Thomas Weisel:
- Rated INPC Outperform.
Merrill Lynch:
- Reiterated Buy on XRTX, target $24.
UBS:
- Raised TTN to Buy, target $22.
- Added WMT and SLR to Select 20 List.
Thursday Watch
Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- The Australian dollar is falling to the lowest in six weeks as a drop in the price of commodities the nation ships overseas damped the outlook for export earnings.
- Gasoline futures in NY are rising to a record in electronic trading after an explosion at a BP Plc Texas refinery, the third largest in the US, raised concern supply may be disrupted before the summer driving season.
- Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian said he will join a March 26 protest against a Chinese law that authorizes attacking the island if it declares independence.
Wall Street Journal:
- Intel Corp. may spend as much as $450 million to build a second plant in China.
- General Electric is considering a bid for closely held NIB Capital Bank NV, an investment bank owned by the two largest Dutch pension funds.
Financial Times:
- Viacom's Showtime Networks has appointed Goldman Sachs Group and Morgan Stanley to manage an IPO that may value the Middle Eastern and North African satellite pay-tv network at as much as $2 billion.
China Business News:
- Dell Inc. plans to build a new plant in Xiamen, southeastern China, to double production capacity in the nation this year.
Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Goldman Sachs:
- Reiterated Outperform on LIZ, BSX, DNA, WYNN and GILD.
- Reiterated Underperform on AMAT and DRI.
Night Trading
Asian Indices are -1.0% to -.25% on average.
S&P 500 indicated +.09%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated unch.
Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Analyst Actions
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule
Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
CAG/.32
BLUD/.14
KKD/-.03
LEXR/-.73
SLR/.05
VIP/.67
Splits
None of note
Economic Releases
8:30 EST:
- Durable Goods Orders for February are estimated to have risen .9% versus a 1.3% fall in January.
- Durables Ex Transportation for February are estimated to have risen .3% versus a .3% increase in January.
- Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to have fallen to 315K versus 318K the prior week.
- Continuing Claims are estimated to have risen to 2650K versus 2647K prior.
10:00 EST:
- New Home Sales for February are estimated to have risen to 1150K versus 1106K in January.
Bloomberg:
- The Australian dollar is falling to the lowest in six weeks as a drop in the price of commodities the nation ships overseas damped the outlook for export earnings.
- Gasoline futures in NY are rising to a record in electronic trading after an explosion at a BP Plc Texas refinery, the third largest in the US, raised concern supply may be disrupted before the summer driving season.
- Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian said he will join a March 26 protest against a Chinese law that authorizes attacking the island if it declares independence.
Wall Street Journal:
- Intel Corp. may spend as much as $450 million to build a second plant in China.
- General Electric is considering a bid for closely held NIB Capital Bank NV, an investment bank owned by the two largest Dutch pension funds.
Financial Times:
- Viacom's Showtime Networks has appointed Goldman Sachs Group and Morgan Stanley to manage an IPO that may value the Middle Eastern and North African satellite pay-tv network at as much as $2 billion.
China Business News:
- Dell Inc. plans to build a new plant in Xiamen, southeastern China, to double production capacity in the nation this year.
Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Goldman Sachs:
- Reiterated Outperform on LIZ, BSX, DNA, WYNN and GILD.
- Reiterated Underperform on AMAT and DRI.
Night Trading
Asian Indices are -1.0% to -.25% on average.
S&P 500 indicated +.09%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated unch.
Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Analyst Actions
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule
Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
CAG/.32
BLUD/.14
KKD/-.03
LEXR/-.73
SLR/.05
VIP/.67
Splits
None of note
Economic Releases
8:30 EST:
- Durable Goods Orders for February are estimated to have risen .9% versus a 1.3% fall in January.
- Durables Ex Transportation for February are estimated to have risen .3% versus a .3% increase in January.
- Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to have fallen to 315K versus 318K the prior week.
- Continuing Claims are estimated to have risen to 2650K versus 2647K prior.
10:00 EST:
- New Home Sales for February are estimated to have risen to 1150K versus 1106K in January.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower as commodity and exporter shares in the region continue to decline on worries over slowing global demand. I expect US equities to open mixed in the morning and to fall modestly later in the day on worries over higher gas prices, slowing global growth and the Fed accelerating the pace of rate hikes. The Portfolio is Market Neutral heading into tomorrow.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)