Thursday, May 05, 2005

Modest Job Creation is a Positive

- Preliminary 1Q Non-farm Productivity rose 2.6% versus estimates of a 1.8% increase and a 2.1% gain in 4Q.
- Preliminary 1Q Unit Labor Costs rose 2.2% versus estimates of a 2.0% gain and a 1.7% increase in 4Q.
- Initial Jobless Claims for last week rose to 333K versus estimates of 323K and 322K the prior week.
- Continuing Claims rose to 2589K versus estimates of 2595K and 2551K prior.

Bottom Line: While unit labor costs, which account for two-thirds of inflation, exceeded estimates slightly, investors are focusing more on the much better-than-expected productivity number. As long as productivity remains elevated, it is unlikely we will see unit labor costs rise substantially. As a result, hiring will remain modest by historic standards and inflation will remain well in check.

The four-week moving average of jobless claims fell to 321,500. This is the lowest since April 7, 2001. Moreover, the Challenger, Gray & Christmas report released earlier in the week showed job cuts are at the lowest level in almost five years and 20% less than in April of last year. I continue to believe the US economy can create at least 100,000 to 125,000 jobs on average through year-end which will keep the unemployment rate low by historic standards.

Links of Interest

Market Snapshot
Detailed Market Summary
Market Internals
Economic Commentary
Movers & Shakers
IBD New America
NYSE OrderTrac
I-Watch Sector Overview
NYSE Unusual Volume
NASDAQ Unusual Volume
Hot Spots
NASDAQ 100 Heatmap
DJIA Quick Charts
Chart Toppers
Option Dragon
Real-time Intraday Chart/Quote

Wednesday, May 04, 2005

Thursday Watch

Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- The South Korean won and Taiwan dollar may decline this year as traders say prices rallied too far on speculation China, the two economies' biggest export market, will allow its currency to strengthen.

NY Times:
- Kohlberg Kravis Roberts and Goldman Sachs are among US buyout firms on a German Parliament-compiled list of companies believed to have benefited excessively from investing in Germany.

AFP:
- Saudi Arabia is ready to sign key nuclear safeguard agreements.

Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Goldman Sachs:
- Reiterated Outperform on IBM, AMLN, NFP and DELL.

Night Trading
Asian Indices are +.50% to +1.25% on average.
S&P 500 indicated -.14%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated -.17%.

Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule

Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
ATVI/.01
ATK/1.25
BRL/.62
CLX/.77
CVS/.68
CNO/.41
DISH/.39
FLR/.57
G/.43
JNY/.70
MFE/.19
MCK/.73
PIXR/.47
SINA/.22
SGMS/.24
WMB/.22

Splits
None of note

Economic Releases
8:30 EST:
- Preliminary 1Q Non-farm Productivity is estimated to rise 1.8% versus a 2.1% gain in 4Q.
- Preliminary 1Q Unit Labor Costs are estimated to rise 2.0% versus a 1.3% increase in 4Q.
- Initial Jobless Claims are estimated to rise to 323K versus 320K the prior week.
- Continuing Claims are estimated to rise to 2595K versus 2555K prior.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, spurred by gains in Taiwan on speculation of improving relations with China. I expect US equities to open modestly lower on worries over slowing retail sales. Unseasonably wet/mild weather and high energy prices likely dampened sales in April. I will look to buy this sector on weakness over the coming weeks as I believe lower energy prices, low interest rates, lower inflation, higher stock prices, modestly improving real incomes/job prospects, rising sentiment and a good housing market will provide a tailwind for these stocks in the second half of the year. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into tomorrow.

Stocks Finish Sharply Higher on Increasing Optimism

Indices
S&P 500 1,175.65 +1.25%
DJIA 10,384.64 +1.24%
NASDAQ 1,962.23 +1.51%
Russell 2000 595.26 +1.84%
DJ Wilshire 5000 11,562.16 +1.27%
S&P Barra Growth 567.16 +.97%
S&P Barra Value 604.15 +1.53%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 584.60 +.78%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 714.08 +1.69%
Morgan Stanley Technology 446.44 +1.63%
Transports 3,519.69 +1.65%
Utilities 369.48 +.11%
Put/Call .95 +13.10%
NYSE Arms .50 +53.37%
Volatility(VIX) 13.85 -4.68%
ISE Sentiment 134.00 +8.06%
US Dollar 83.98 -.63%
CRB 300.97 +.43%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 50.32 +.38%
Unleaded Gasoline 147.15 +.35%
Natural Gas 6.64 +.23%
Heating Oil 145.65 +.14%
Gold 430.60 +.14%
Base Metals 121.30 -1.14%
Copper 143.25 +.24%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.18% +.38%

Leading Sectors
Steel +2.11%
Airlines +2.09%
Gold & Silver +1.10%

Lagging Sectors
Oil Tankers -2.14%
Energy -2.33%
Oil Service -2.63%

Evening Review
Detailed Market Summary
Market Gauges
Daily ETF Performance
Style Performance
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
S&P 500 Gallery View
Economic Calendar
Timely Economic Charts
GuruFocus.com
PM Market Call
After-hours Movers
Real-time/After-hours Stock Quote
In Play

Afternoon Recommendations
Goldman Sachs:
- Reiterated Outperform on BC, SBUX, WON and DEX.

Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- The FBI is probing the US insurance industry to determine whether insurance fraud is “the next big one,” following the savings and loan crisis of the 1980s and the corporate fraud scandals that began in 2001.
- Kirk Kerkorian, who shook up Chrysler with a hostile takeover bid a decade ago, disclosed he is building an 8.8% stake in GM, sending GM shares to their biggest gain in more than 40 years.
- Lazard Ltd. raised $854.6 million in an IPO today.

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished substantially higher today on gains in my Internet, Gaming and Computer longs. I did not trade in the afternoon, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market was positive as the advance/decline finished at its daily highs, every sector rose and volume was average. Measures of investor anxiety were mostly lower. Overall, today’s market action was very positive considering the bounce in energy prices. The S&P 500 has now broken out of its recent trading range to the upside. Today’s action was likely the result of more investors coming around to the view that we are moving to sustainable less inflationary growth. The positive sentiment change towards GM was also a major factor today.

Stocks Sharply Higher Mid-day on Optimism Over Recent Economic Data

Indices
S&P 500 1,172.74 +.99%
DJIA 10,359.59 +1.0%
NASDAQ 1,956.57 +1.20%
Russell 2000 593.13 +1.48%
DJ Wilshire 5000 11,532.19 +1.01%
S&P Barra Growth 565.46 +.66%
S&P Barra Value 602.87 +1.31%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 583.31 +.55%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 712.33 +1.44%
Morgan Stanley Technology 445.31 +1.38%
Transports 3,510.00 +1.37%
Utilities 368.19 -.24%
Put/Call 1.05 +25.00%
NYSE Arms .55 -48.84%
Volatility(VIX) 13.94 -4.06%
ISE Sentiment 125.00 +.81%
US Dollar 84.02 -.58%
CRB 300.26 +.19%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 50.15 +1.31%
Unleaded Gasoline 146.70 +.52%
Natural Gas 6.61 +1.61%
Heating Oil 145.10 +1.04%
Gold 430.00 unch.
Base Metals 121.30 -1.14%
Copper 144.35 -.79%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.18% +.43%

Leading Sectors
Steel +4.45%
I-Banks +3.36%
Insurance +2.87%

Lagging Sectors
Software +.49%
Alternative Energy +.49%
Computer Services +.30%
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is substantially higher mid-day on gains in my Internet, Computer and Gaming longs. I added a few longs from various sectors this morning and covered a short, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. One of my new longs is EBAY and I am using a $31.75 stop-loss on this position. The tone of the market is positive as the advance/decline line is higher, almost every sector is advancing and volume is decent. Measures of investor anxiety are mostly lower. Today’s overall market action is positive as stocks are maintaining gains even with the reversal in oil prices this morning. The S&P 500 and DJIA are breaking out of their recent trading ranges on decent volume and breadth. The fact that long-term interest rates are barely higher today even with the stock rally, better-than expected ISM report and speculation over a return of the 30-year long-bond is a big positive. Copper prices are falling again today as technicals for the metal continue to weaken. I expect US stocks to trade higher into the close on a moderating in energy prices, short-covering, bargain-hunting and more optimism over the US economy.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
- US Treasury note yields are no longer the “conundrum” Fed Chairman Greenspan said they were in February, given signs of slowing global economic growth, according to Paul McCulley, a managing director at PIMCO.
- Abu al-Faraj, a Libyan national and one of the most senior leaders in the global al-Qaeda terrorist network, has been captured in northern Pakistan.
- The European Central Bank kept interest rates at a six-decade low as the outlook for economic growth in the 12 nations sharing the euro deteriorates.
- Investor Kirk Kerkorian offered to buy as many as 28 million shares of GM for $31 each.
- The US Treasury said it is considering whether to resume selling 30-year bonds, a security it eliminated four years ago.

Wall Street Journal:
- Coca-Cola, Unilever Plc and McDonald’s are phasing out hydrofluorocarbons, a chemical cooler that is believed to contribute to global warming.
- Sanofi-Pasteur, the biggest US supplier of flu vaccines, and Chiron already have sold almost all their available stockpiles of flu vaccines six months before the flu season normally starts.
- Symantec has obtained a broad patent for virus-scanning technology that may help defend against competition from rivals including Microsoft.
- American Tower may announce today an agreement to acquire SpectraSite for about $3 billion in stock, to become the US’s largest communications tower operation.
- Japanese wig maker Aderans is trying to clone hair cells resistant to a particular hormone that causes hair loss.

NY Times:
- US airlines added 134 non-stop routes in the past year as larger carriers such as Delta Air compete with so-called low fare airlines such as Southwest for customers.
- Microsoft plans to expand its headquarters in Redmond, Washington, by 2.2 million square feet as it begins constructing two office buildings this year.
- Wal-Mart is under pressure from community groups and lawmakers to raise wages.

Chicago Tribune:
- Nike Inc. will stop selling shoes to Sears Holding in a decision that it said was part of the normal process of reviewing accounts.
- Baxter Intl. will increase spending on research and development this year at a rate faster than sales growth.

USA Today:
- The US federal government plans to start collecting full names and birth dates of domestic air travelers this summer to screen passengers for possible ties to terrorism.