Indices
S&P 500 1,234.72 +1.20%
DJIA 10,686.04 +1.48%
NASDAQ 2,202.47 +1.52%
Russell 2000 666.66 +1.29%
DJ Wilshire 5000 12,333.89 +1.15%
S&P Equity Long/Short Index 1,068.03 +.20%
S&P Barra Growth 590.75 +1.10%
S&P Barra Value 639.69 +1.29%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 594.85 +1.61%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 744.36 +1.66%
Morgan Stanley Technology 515.65 +1.06%
Transports 4,072.25 +3.51%
Utilities 388.03 -1.24%
S&P 500 Cum A/D Line 7,580.00 +4.15%
Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 17.0 -26.34%
Put/Call .67 -22.09%
NYSE Arms .64 -20.0%
Volatility(VIX) 11.63 -10.54%
ISE Sentiment 168.00 -11.11%
AAII % Bulls 58.62 +36.48%
US Dollar 91.98 +.72%
CRB 315.59 -1.0%
Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 57.53 -4.99%
Unleaded Gasoline 148.50 -7.48%
Natural Gas 11.71 +3.19%
Heating Oil 172.35 -3.90%
Gold 470.00 +2.04%
Base Metals 139.80 +2.44%
Copper 190.50 +3.20%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.56% -2.15%
Average 30-year Mortgage Rate 6.36% +.79%
Leading Sectors
Airlines +7.96%
REITs +4.01%
Banks +3.79%
Lagging Sectors
Homebuilders -1.65%
Oil Service -4.21%
Energy -4.30%
One-Week High-Volume Gainers
One-Week High-Volume Losers
*5-Day % Change
Saturday, November 12, 2005
Friday, November 11, 2005
Stocks Modestly Higher Mid-day, Consolidating Recent Gains
Indices
S&P 500 1,233.09 +.17%
DJIA 10,675.00 +.33%
NASDAQ 2,202.57 +.28%
Russell 2000 665.86 +.14%
DJ Wilshire 5000 12,316.74 +.17%
S&P Barra Growth 590.41 +.18%
S&P Barra Value 638.26 +.14%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 594.45 +.20%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 743.10 +.53%
Morgan Stanley Technology 515.61 +.16%
Transports 4,059.86 +.39%
Utilities 386.42 -1.21%
Put/Call .73 -2.67%
NYSE Arms .63 -20.88%
Volatility(VIX) 11.84 -.50%
ISE Sentiment 230.00 +47.44%
US Dollar 91.94 -.15%
CRB 315.53 +.32%
Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 57.70 -.17%
Unleaded Gasoline 149.00 -1.11%
Natural Gas 11.65 +2.37%
Heating Oil 173.75 -.34%
Gold 469.40 +.36%
Base Metals 139.80 +1.44%
Copper 190.55 +1.82%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.56% +.76%
Leading Sectors
Steel +2.65%
Coal +2.10%
Airlines +2.03%
Lagging Sectors
Defense -.74%
Tobacco -.92%
Utilities -1.15%
S&P 500 1,233.09 +.17%
DJIA 10,675.00 +.33%
NASDAQ 2,202.57 +.28%
Russell 2000 665.86 +.14%
DJ Wilshire 5000 12,316.74 +.17%
S&P Barra Growth 590.41 +.18%
S&P Barra Value 638.26 +.14%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 594.45 +.20%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 743.10 +.53%
Morgan Stanley Technology 515.61 +.16%
Transports 4,059.86 +.39%
Utilities 386.42 -1.21%
Put/Call .73 -2.67%
NYSE Arms .63 -20.88%
Volatility(VIX) 11.84 -.50%
ISE Sentiment 230.00 +47.44%
US Dollar 91.94 -.15%
CRB 315.53 +.32%
Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 57.70 -.17%
Unleaded Gasoline 149.00 -1.11%
Natural Gas 11.65 +2.37%
Heating Oil 173.75 -.34%
Gold 469.40 +.36%
Base Metals 139.80 +1.44%
Copper 190.55 +1.82%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.56% +.76%
Leading Sectors
Steel +2.65%
Coal +2.10%
Airlines +2.03%
Lagging Sectors
Defense -.74%
Tobacco -.92%
Utilities -1.15%
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is higher mid-day on gains in my Internet longs, Semi longs, Airline longs and Medical Information System longs. I have not traded today, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is slightly positive as the advance/decline line is neutral, most sectors are rising and volume is below average. Measures of investor anxiety are lower. Overall, market action is neutral. It is my experience that tight, sustained trading ranges result in extreme moves in either direction. We are in the midst of the longest string of 3%+ GDP growth quarters since 1986, yet consumer confidence was recently at the lowest level since the depths of the recession in the early 1990s. Given the U.S. economy's bulletproof disposition, there has been a major disconnect between perception and reality, thanks to fact the that there has never before in U.S. history been so many that perceive they will benefit(both politically and financially) from a U.S. economic collapse. I contend that all the irrational negativity that has built up since the bursting of the bubble five years ago will help propel the major averages higher out of the recent trading range over the intermediate-term.
Today's Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Pennsylvania’s seven-decade monopoly on wine sales is ending after a judge overturned the commonwealth’s ban on Internet and mail-order shipments.
- Oil may fall to $50.16 a barrel, halting a four-year rally that quadrupled prices, said Citibank, the world’s largest bank.
- The World Health Organization said a $135 million international effort stopped a polio epidemic that paralyzed almost 200 children for life in west and central Africa.
- Silver Lake Partners, a buyout firm that specializes in technology companies, will purchase Serena Software for $1.2 billion and take the company private.
- UBS AG and Goldman Sachs Group raised their forecasts for the US dollar versus the euro and yen, and Lehman Brothers Holdings said investors should add to bets the dollar will gain against Europe’s currency.
- Crude oil is falling to the lowest in more than three months as rising US imports make up for production shut by storms in the Gulf of Mexico.
Wall Street Journal:
- Nike Inc. is re-launching Los Angeles Lakers All-Star Kobe Bryant as an endorser.
- Microsoft’s shares, which have lost favor with investors looking for growth, are much sought-after by those wanting bargains.
- Merck will have a harder job defending liability cases over its Vioxx painkiller in its home state of New Jersey after a state court judge told lawyers she wanted to hear cases involving plaintiffs who took the drug for 18 months or longer.
NY Times:
- United Airlines plans to hire 2,000 flight attendants over the next year, adding such employees for the first time since the 9/11 terrorist attacks pushed the airline industry into decline.
- State transportation agencies in Maryland and Virginia plan to test tracking cell phones to provide traffic information.
- A lack of workers may be hurting New Orleans’ recovery from the damages caused by Hurricane Katrina, citing local officials and business leaders. Some employers, such as Southern Electronic, are paying two to three times the regular wage to attract workers.
- The US National Academy of Televisions Arts & Sciences, which rules on the Daytime Emmy Awards, plans to announce a new category of prizes for original video content created for mobile devices such as cellular phones and Apple Computer’s iPod.
Washington Post:
- US envoy to the United Nations John Bolton said yesterday that inaction by UN members jeopardizes the passage of initiatives to overhaul the bureaucracy of the scandal-tarnished world body.
AFP:
- US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice made an unannounced visit to Iraq today, arriving in Mosul in the north of the country with a full entourage of officials and media.
- Pennsylvania’s seven-decade monopoly on wine sales is ending after a judge overturned the commonwealth’s ban on Internet and mail-order shipments.
- Oil may fall to $50.16 a barrel, halting a four-year rally that quadrupled prices, said Citibank, the world’s largest bank.
- The World Health Organization said a $135 million international effort stopped a polio epidemic that paralyzed almost 200 children for life in west and central Africa.
- Silver Lake Partners, a buyout firm that specializes in technology companies, will purchase Serena Software for $1.2 billion and take the company private.
- UBS AG and Goldman Sachs Group raised their forecasts for the US dollar versus the euro and yen, and Lehman Brothers Holdings said investors should add to bets the dollar will gain against Europe’s currency.
- Crude oil is falling to the lowest in more than three months as rising US imports make up for production shut by storms in the Gulf of Mexico.
Wall Street Journal:
- Nike Inc. is re-launching Los Angeles Lakers All-Star Kobe Bryant as an endorser.
- Microsoft’s shares, which have lost favor with investors looking for growth, are much sought-after by those wanting bargains.
- Merck will have a harder job defending liability cases over its Vioxx painkiller in its home state of New Jersey after a state court judge told lawyers she wanted to hear cases involving plaintiffs who took the drug for 18 months or longer.
NY Times:
- United Airlines plans to hire 2,000 flight attendants over the next year, adding such employees for the first time since the 9/11 terrorist attacks pushed the airline industry into decline.
- State transportation agencies in Maryland and Virginia plan to test tracking cell phones to provide traffic information.
- A lack of workers may be hurting New Orleans’ recovery from the damages caused by Hurricane Katrina, citing local officials and business leaders. Some employers, such as Southern Electronic, are paying two to three times the regular wage to attract workers.
- The US National Academy of Televisions Arts & Sciences, which rules on the Daytime Emmy Awards, plans to announce a new category of prizes for original video content created for mobile devices such as cellular phones and Apple Computer’s iPod.
Washington Post:
- US envoy to the United Nations John Bolton said yesterday that inaction by UN members jeopardizes the passage of initiatives to overhaul the bureaucracy of the scandal-tarnished world body.
AFP:
- US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice made an unannounced visit to Iraq today, arriving in Mosul in the north of the country with a full entourage of officials and media.
Thursday, November 10, 2005
Friday Watch
Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Prices of coking coal, used to make steel, may fall 28% during the next two years as new mines start production, JPMorgan Chase said.
- Crude oil may decline again next week because of reduced global demand growth and surging stockpiles, a Bloomberg survey showed.
- Japan’s economy grew faster than expected in the third quarter, adding to signs spending by companies and consumers will sustain the longest expansion in eight years.
- A unit of J&J issued a warning on its birth control patch.
Business Week:
- Wachovia may consider buying Capital One Financial Corp., which issues Visa and MasterCard credit cards, to expand in the lucrative credit card market.
Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Goldman Sachs:
- Reiterated Outperform on NSM and CRL.
Night Trading
Asian Indices are -.25% to +1.0% on average.
S&P 500 indicated +.03%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated +.18%.
Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule
Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- None of note
Upcoming Splits
- None of note
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
- The Producer Price Index for October is estimated to remain unchanged versus a 1.9% increase in September.
- The PPI Ex Food & Energy for October is estimated to rise .2% versus a .3% gain in September.
- Advance Retail Sales for October are estimated to fall .6% versus a .2% increase in September.
- Retail Sales Less Autos for October are estimated to rise .3% versus a 1.1% gain in September.
- Empire Manufacturing for November is estimated to rise to 15.0 versus a reading of 12.1 in October.
Bloomberg:
- Prices of coking coal, used to make steel, may fall 28% during the next two years as new mines start production, JPMorgan Chase said.
- Crude oil may decline again next week because of reduced global demand growth and surging stockpiles, a Bloomberg survey showed.
- Japan’s economy grew faster than expected in the third quarter, adding to signs spending by companies and consumers will sustain the longest expansion in eight years.
- A unit of J&J issued a warning on its birth control patch.
Business Week:
- Wachovia may consider buying Capital One Financial Corp., which issues Visa and MasterCard credit cards, to expand in the lucrative credit card market.
Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Goldman Sachs:
- Reiterated Outperform on NSM and CRL.
Night Trading
Asian Indices are -.25% to +1.0% on average.
S&P 500 indicated +.03%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated +.18%.
Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule
Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- None of note
Upcoming Splits
- None of note
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
- The Producer Price Index for October is estimated to remain unchanged versus a 1.9% increase in September.
- The PPI Ex Food & Energy for October is estimated to rise .2% versus a .3% gain in September.
- Advance Retail Sales for October are estimated to fall .6% versus a .2% increase in September.
- Retail Sales Less Autos for October are estimated to rise .3% versus a 1.1% gain in September.
- Empire Manufacturing for November is estimated to rise to 15.0 versus a reading of 12.1 in October.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, spurred by gains in technology shares in the region. I expect US equities to open mixed and rally later in the day. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.
Subscribe to:
Comments (Atom)