BOTTOM LINE: Manufacturing activity in the Central Atlantic region edged lower in December, Bloomberg reported. The shipments component of the index fell to 1 from 14. The new orders component fell to -2 from 10 and a gauge of manufacturing employment in the region fell to -6 from 0. However, measures of confidence improved as the expected shipments component rose 21 points to 50. The expected new orders component of the index rose 20 to 43. The index for expected manufacturing employment rose 11 points to 10. Finally, the planned capital expenditures component rose 6 points to 18. I continue to believe manufacturing will add to US economic growth over the intermediate-term as businesses increase spending, inventories are rebuilt and hurricane rebuilding accelerates.
Tuesday, December 27, 2005
Manufacturing Slows in Mid-Atlantic, Outlook Improves
- The Richmond Fed Index for December fell to -2 versus estimates of 10 and a reading of 9 in November.
Monday, December 26, 2005
Tuesday Watch
Weekend Headlines
Bloomberg:
- US toy sales are headed for their third straight annual decline because children like 6-year-old Dawson Painter prefer electronic games.
- President Bush asked Americans to keep the families of US military men and women in mind during the Christmas holiday, saying their wartime sacrifices are protecting the country’s freedoms.
- Eastman Kodak probably generated increased holiday sales of digital cameras and printers, boosting efforts by the world’s largest photography company to shift from its traditional film business.
- Amazon.com said holiday sale worldwide set a record this year on demand for Apple’s iPod music players, video games and jewelry.
- Royal Dutch Shell Plc said it discovered oil off Brazil’s southeastern coast and wants to start producing by the end of the decade.
- The yen is falling by the most against the euro in more than two months and had the biggest loss versus the dollar in a week after reports showed Japanese household spending unexpectedly slid and unemployment increased.
- Crude oil is falling as much as 1.4% in NY on forecasts for milder weather in the US and on expectations heating fuel stockpiles, including natural gas, are adequate to meet winter demand.
NY Times:
- Goldman Sachs and Merrill Lynch are among Wall Street firms investing in online casinos and betting parlors and ignoring the government’s edict that those organizations are illegal.
- Pennsylvania lawmakers are investigating whether the political atmosphere of 18 state-run universities and colleges requires legislation to ban political bias in the classroom.
- The Israeli economy is likely to grow 5% this year, up from 4% in 2004, as its technology industries approach the peak they reached in 2000.
Washington Post:
- Immigrant entrepreneurs in the US are using small vending carts or kiosks in malls as a springboard into retailing.
Economic Daily News:
- Global shipments for flat-panel displays used in computers will see a modest slide in the first quarter of 2006, falling by a single digit from the fourth quarter, citing AU Optronics Executive VP Hui.
Kommersant:
- OPEC President Sheikh al-Sabah is visiting Moscow to ask Russia to cooperate on a planned cut in oil production and to learn more about Russia’s plans to supply China.
Weekend Recommendations
Barron's:
- Had positive comments on OSK, COP, APC and FDX.
- Had negative comments on GE and NTRI.
Goldman Sachs:
- Reiterated Outperform on EBAY.
Night Trading
Asian indices are -.50% to +.50% on average.
S&P 500 indicated +.13%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated +.24%.
Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule
Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
CBI/.26
TDS/.29
USM/.37
Upcoming Splits
MRTN 3-for-2
KNX 3-for-2
JBLU 3-for-2
WFMI 2-for-1
Economic Releases
10:00 am EST
- Richmond Fed Index for December is estimated to rise to 10 versus a reading of 9 in November.
Bloomberg:
- US toy sales are headed for their third straight annual decline because children like 6-year-old Dawson Painter prefer electronic games.
- President Bush asked Americans to keep the families of US military men and women in mind during the Christmas holiday, saying their wartime sacrifices are protecting the country’s freedoms.
- Eastman Kodak probably generated increased holiday sales of digital cameras and printers, boosting efforts by the world’s largest photography company to shift from its traditional film business.
- Amazon.com said holiday sale worldwide set a record this year on demand for Apple’s iPod music players, video games and jewelry.
- Royal Dutch Shell Plc said it discovered oil off Brazil’s southeastern coast and wants to start producing by the end of the decade.
- The yen is falling by the most against the euro in more than two months and had the biggest loss versus the dollar in a week after reports showed Japanese household spending unexpectedly slid and unemployment increased.
- Crude oil is falling as much as 1.4% in NY on forecasts for milder weather in the US and on expectations heating fuel stockpiles, including natural gas, are adequate to meet winter demand.
NY Times:
- Goldman Sachs and Merrill Lynch are among Wall Street firms investing in online casinos and betting parlors and ignoring the government’s edict that those organizations are illegal.
- Pennsylvania lawmakers are investigating whether the political atmosphere of 18 state-run universities and colleges requires legislation to ban political bias in the classroom.
- The Israeli economy is likely to grow 5% this year, up from 4% in 2004, as its technology industries approach the peak they reached in 2000.
Washington Post:
- Immigrant entrepreneurs in the US are using small vending carts or kiosks in malls as a springboard into retailing.
Economic Daily News:
- Global shipments for flat-panel displays used in computers will see a modest slide in the first quarter of 2006, falling by a single digit from the fourth quarter, citing AU Optronics Executive VP Hui.
Kommersant:
- OPEC President Sheikh al-Sabah is visiting Moscow to ask Russia to cooperate on a planned cut in oil production and to learn more about Russia’s plans to supply China.
Weekend Recommendations
Barron's:
- Had positive comments on OSK, COP, APC and FDX.
- Had negative comments on GE and NTRI.
Goldman Sachs:
- Reiterated Outperform on EBAY.
Night Trading
Asian indices are -.50% to +.50% on average.
S&P 500 indicated +.13%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated +.24%.
Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule
Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
CBI/.26
TDS/.29
USM/.37
Upcoming Splits
MRTN 3-for-2
KNX 3-for-2
JBLU 3-for-2
WFMI 2-for-1
Economic Releases
10:00 am EST
- Richmond Fed Index for December is estimated to rise to 10 versus a reading of 9 in November.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian Indices are mixed, as declining energy prices are offsetting disappointing economic data from Japan. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and build on gains later in the day. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.
Friday, December 23, 2005
Weekly Scoreboard*
Indices
S&P 500 1,268.66 +.11%
DJIA 10,883.27 +.07%
NASDAQ 2,249.42 -.14%
Russell 2000 686.44 +.49%
DJ Wilshire 5000 12,692.96 +.20%
S&P Equity Long/Short Index 1,108.41 +.27%
S&P Barra Growth 607.15 +.11%
S&P Barra Value 657.12 +.11%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 599.02 -.05%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 792.81 +.76%
Morgan Stanley Technology 532.92 -.32%
Transports 4,266.75 +3.0%
Utilities 411.65 -1.48%
S&P 500 Cum A/D Line 8,664 unch.
Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 21.9 -57.93%
Put/Call .69 -13.75%
NYSE Arms 1.30 +35.42%
Volatility(VIX) 10.27 -3.84%
ISE Sentiment 160.00 -13.98%
AAII % Bulls 41.03 -11.09%
US Dollar 90.78 +1.19%
CRB 326.31 -.01%
ECRI Weekly Leading Index 135.40 -.07%
Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 58.43 -.97%
Unleaded Gasoline 155.05 -.48%
Natural Gas 12.28 -10.01%
Heating Oil 170.53 -1.63%
Gold 505.90 -.16%
Base Metals 153.51 -.14%
Copper 203.50 +.20%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.38% -1.35%
Average 30-year Mortgage Rate 6.26% -.63%
Leading Sectors
Disk Drives +8.45%
Gaming +2.94%
Drugs +2.92%
Lagging Sectors
Internet -1.33%
Utilities -1.48%
Oil Tankers -2.0%
One-Week High-Volume Gainers
One-Week High-Volume Losers
*5-Day % Change
S&P 500 1,268.66 +.11%
DJIA 10,883.27 +.07%
NASDAQ 2,249.42 -.14%
Russell 2000 686.44 +.49%
DJ Wilshire 5000 12,692.96 +.20%
S&P Equity Long/Short Index 1,108.41 +.27%
S&P Barra Growth 607.15 +.11%
S&P Barra Value 657.12 +.11%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 599.02 -.05%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 792.81 +.76%
Morgan Stanley Technology 532.92 -.32%
Transports 4,266.75 +3.0%
Utilities 411.65 -1.48%
S&P 500 Cum A/D Line 8,664 unch.
Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 21.9 -57.93%
Put/Call .69 -13.75%
NYSE Arms 1.30 +35.42%
Volatility(VIX) 10.27 -3.84%
ISE Sentiment 160.00 -13.98%
AAII % Bulls 41.03 -11.09%
US Dollar 90.78 +1.19%
CRB 326.31 -.01%
ECRI Weekly Leading Index 135.40 -.07%
Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 58.43 -.97%
Unleaded Gasoline 155.05 -.48%
Natural Gas 12.28 -10.01%
Heating Oil 170.53 -1.63%
Gold 505.90 -.16%
Base Metals 153.51 -.14%
Copper 203.50 +.20%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.38% -1.35%
Average 30-year Mortgage Rate 6.26% -.63%
Leading Sectors
Disk Drives +8.45%
Gaming +2.94%
Drugs +2.92%
Lagging Sectors
Internet -1.33%
Utilities -1.48%
Oil Tankers -2.0%
One-Week High-Volume Gainers
One-Week High-Volume Losers
*5-Day % Change
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