Stocks Finish Mixed ahead of Tomorrow's Fed Rate Announcement

Indices
S&P 500 1,301.61 -.10%
DJIA 11,250.11 -.26%
NASDAQ 2,315.18 +.12%
Russell 2000 754.03 +.03%
Wilshire 5000 13,131.37 -.08%
S&P Barra Growth 612.96 -.22%
S&P Barra Value 685.43 +.01%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 615.12 -.09%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 814.43 +.19%
Morgan Stanley Technology 540.06 +.08%
Transports 4,557.95 +.67%
Utilities 396.19 -.89%
Put/Call .84 +6.33%
NYSE Arms .91 +20.70%
Volatility(VIX) 11.46 +2.41%
ISE Sentiment 142.00 -17.44%
US Dollar 90.07 unch.
CRB 327.71 +.22%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 64.34 +.28%
Unleaded Gasoline 183.55 +.37%
Natural Gas 7.08 +.18%
Heating Oil 178.11 -.63%
Gold 567.20 -.04%
Base Metals 178.71 +.82%
Copper 242.70 -.12%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.70% +.73%

Leading Sectors
Gold & Silver +2.89%
Steel +1.46%
Papers +1.0%

Lagging Sectors
Utilities -.89%
REITs -.93%
Drugs -.95%

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Afternoon Recommendations
- None of note

Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Shares of Time Warner Telecom(TWTC), which provides communications services over fiber networks connecting 44 US cities, were raised to “overweight” by Morgan Stanley analyst Vance Edelson, citing increased demand.
- General Motors(GM) said better-than-expected sales of new models such as the redesigned Chevrolet Tahoe are helping stem market-share declines as the automaker tries to cut its reliance on incentives and low-profit sales to rental agencies.
- Zacarias Moussaoui testified that he and would-be shoe bomber Richard Reid planned to hijack a jetliner and fly it into the White House on the day of the Sept.11 attacks.
- Brazil’s currency weakened after President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva’s top economic policy maker submitted his resignation amid allegations of corruption.
- Corn and soybean prices rose in Chicago on speculation the spread of bird flu will be contained and demand for grain-based poultry feed won’t decline.
- Delphi has offered UAW union members a payment of $50,000 each in exchange for a 35% pay cut.
- The Chicago Mercantile Exchange, the largest US futures market, said it plans to offer energy contracts in June after a non-compete with the NY Merc expires.
- A Senate panel approved hiring up to 14,000 more Border Patrol agents to increase border enforcement as part of an overhaul of immigration laws.
- Copper and zinc prices rose to records on speculation that metals demand, driven by worldwide economic growth, will reduce inventories and trigger supply shortfalls.

Financial Times:
- Lucent Technologies’(LU) Bell Labs research unit may be separated and put under control of a new board if the company is taken over by Alcatel SA(ALA).

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished higher today on gains in my Internet longs, Networking longs and Medical longs. I did not trade in the final hour, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market was slightly negative today as the advance/decline line finished near even, sector performance was mixed and volume was about average. Measures of investor anxiety were higher into the close. Overall, today's market performance was neutral. However, a number of market-leading stocks traded very well throughout the day. Investors appear as though they are becoming increasingly confident in the durability of the current economic expansion. I continue to believe U.S. growth will slow to average levels later this year, which will likely have a greater negative impact on some economically sensitive stocks than most expect.

Stocks Mixed into Final Hour ahead of Fed Rate Announcement Tomorrow

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is higher into the final hour on gains in my Internet longs, Medical longs and Networking longs. I added (UARM) long and exited a retail long today, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is mixed as the advance/decline line is slightly lower, most sectors are gaining and volume is about average. According to theFlyontheWall.com, Deutsche Bank is saying that the Society of Gynecologic Oncologists conference over the weekend gave them increased confidence that gynecology will be a "blockbuster market for da Vinci." I agree and continue to believe that Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) has the potential to be one of the greatest growth stories this decade. The stock has rallied almost 40% since lows seen earlier in the month. So far, my conviction for the stock has paid off. I am still long (ISRG). I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher into the close from current levels on short-covering ahead of the Fed’s rate decision tomorrow.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
- Natural-gas futures in New York may resume their downtrend as mild weather cuts heating demand, leaving supplies near record levels, according to a Bloomberg survey of analysts.
- Optimism that the US economy and earnings will growth without fueling inflation sent US stocks toward their biggest first-quarter advance in seven years.
- Alcatel’s(ALA) potential takeover of Lucent Technologies(LU) may spark a wave of takeovers among networking-equipment companies.
- Globalization may end up being the saving grace for Ben S. Bernanke’s Federal Reserve that productivity was for Alan Greenspan’s.
- US Treasuries are falling before Federal Reserve officials start a two-day meeting where they’re expected to raise interest rates for the 15th straight time and in advance of an auction today of two-year notes.
- Nigerian militants releases three oil workers, two US citizens and a Briton, who were kidnapped more than a month ago in the Niger River delta.

Wall Street Journal:
- Alcatel’s(ALA) plan to merge with Lucent Technologies(LU) is part of an effort to meet competition from Chinese telephone-equipment makers such as Huawei Technologies and ZTE Corp.
- Total SA, Europe’s third-largest oil company, is leading the development of oil extraction from sand in Canada as oil prices rise.
- Major League Baseball’s Web site has agreements with 25 clients, including CBS Corp., to help provide live streaming video to large audiences on the Internet.
- Regulators of the Federal Home Loan Banks may cut a subsidy granted to thousands of lenders including Washington Mutual(WM) and Citigroup(C).
- The SEC has subpoenaed Gradient Analytics, an Arizona-based securities research firm, about its dealings with journalists and hedge-fund advisers, citing a March 10 document.
- The change in US bankruptcy law introduced last year hasn’t significantly affected corporate insolvencies, citing talks with attorneys.
- Revised US Labor Dept. disclosure rules for unions with annual revenue of at least $250,000 offer members and government auditors added details about their spending patterns.

LA Times:
- Tenet Healthcare(THC) is revamping its hospitals to doctors’ orders in an effort to win back their favor and fill more beds following nationally reported legal problems.

NY Times:
- Rallies in the US in support of immigrants have drawn so many people that even the organizers have been surprised.

Asharq Al-Awsat
- Saudi Arabian brokerages received few requests from foreign residents in the kingdom to buy stocks after they were allowed to trade in a market previously limited to nationals.

Reuters:
- Time Warner’s(TWX) studio division plans to open at least 200 stores in China as demand increases for its trademark characters.

Economic Releases

- None of note

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Monday Watch

Weekend Headlines
Bloomberg:
- US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said it is “entirely likely” that more US troops will be withdrawn from Iraq in 2006 as the country’s own forces continue taking on more responsibility for security.
- BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto and Cia. Vale do Rio Doce, the biggest producers of iron ore, may be forced by China to limit price increases.
- Hamas, the Islamic movement that won Palestinian elections in January, wants to end the crisis with Israel, incoming Palestinian Prime Minister Ismael Hania said.

Economist.com:
- China hopes to use the 2008 Olympics in Beijing to market its emergence on the world stage.

NY Times:
- New York state leaders are negotiating a set of tax cuts funded by a budget surplus of $2 billion to $4.5 billion
- US families are taking advantage of hundreds of time-saving stores with already peeled and sliced ingredients to prepare home-cooked meals to avoid to take-out food and to make ready meals faster.
- Vinod Khosla, a founder of Sun Microsystems(SUNW), as well as Richard Branson and Bill Gates are among executives investing in ethanol, a fuel made from corn or other organic matter.

Washington Post:
- The US Federal Election Commission yesterday proposed treating political Web logs and Internet news sites similarly to newspapers, leaving speech other than campaign advertisements largely unregulated.

Financial Times:
- Alcatel SA(ALA) and Lucent Technologies’(LU) plan to combine will spark a review from the US government and Congress on national security grounds.

Business:
- Exxon Mobil(XOM) and Chevron Corp.(CVX) have discovered oil and natural-gas in fields in western Africa.

Die Welt:
- Continental AG CEO Wennemer said the German tiremaker is interested in buying parts of US auto-parts makers Delphi Corp. and Dana Corp.

Le Figaro:
- France was the only country of 20 polled where most people reject free markets, citing a survey by GlobeScan.

London-based Times:
- Apple Corps, owned by the former Beatles and their heirs, is going to court this week demanding multimillion-pound damages against iPod-maker Apple Computer(AAPL)

Weekend Recommendations
Barron's:
- Had positive comments on (WEN), (XOM), (CVX), (APC), (DVN), (CHK), (KMG), (PPP), (XEC), (THX), (WLL), (LAUR) and (COP).
- Had negative comments on (THI).

Night Trading
Asian indices are unch. to +.75% on average.
S&P 500 indicated +.03%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated +.03%.

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Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
- (WAG)/.52
- (PHH)/.52

Economic Releases
- None of note

BOTTOM LINE: Asian Indices are higher, boosted by exporting shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to maintain gains into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.