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BOTTOM LINE: I am unable to post the Thursday Close due to a scheduling conflict. I will post the Friday Watch later this evening. I finished the day 100% net long.
Thursday, October 19, 2006
Stocks Mixed into Final Hour as Positive Earnings Offset Higher Energy Prices
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is higher into the final hour on gains in my Internet longs and Computer longs. I have not traded today, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is slightly positive as the advance/decline line is slightly higher, sector performance is mixed and volume is above average. Apple Computer (AAPL) is trading near session highs, rising 6.2%. I continue to believe that forward Mac market-share estimates are way too low. This will substantially boost earnings above current estimates next year. Moreover, new products should also have more of a positive impact than most analysts expect. Apple Computer remains my second-largest long position after adding at much lower levels. The NYSE Arms is currently at 1.16, an above-average level. The three-day moving average of the NYSE Arms is 1.41, the highest level since the July stock market bottom. This is stunning considering the DJIA is at 12,000. Moreover, the 50-day moving average of the ISE Sentiment Index is still near all-time low levels. As CNBC parades the usual bears today, I see little capitulation and much complacency in the bear camp regarding recent gains. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher into the close from current levels on short-covering, bargain-hunting and investment manager performance anxiety.
Stocks Mixed into Final Hour as Positive Earnings Offset Higher Energy Prices
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is higher into the final hour on gains in my Internet longs and Computer longs. I have not traded today, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is slightly positive as the advance/decline line is slightly higher, sector performance is mixed and volume is above average. Apple Computer (AAPL) is trading near session highs, rising 6.2%. I continue to believe that forward Mac market-share estimates are way too low. This will substantially boost earnings above current estimates next year. Moreover, new products should also have more of a positive impact than most analysts expect. Apple Computer remains my second-largest long position after adding at much lower levels. The NYSE Arms is currently at 1.16, an above-average level. The three-day moving average of the NYSE Arms is 1.41, the highest level since the July stock market bottom. This is stunning considering the DJIA is at 12,000. Moreover, the 50-day moving average of the ISE Sentiment Index is still near all-time low levels. As CNBC parades the usual bears today, I see little capitulation and much complacency in the bear camp regarding recent gains. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher into the close from current levels on short-covering, bargain-hunting and investment manager performance anxiety.
Today's Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Tribune(TRB) and New York Times(NYT), the second- and third-largest US newspaper publishers, reported third-quarter results that missed analysts’ estimates amid continuing subscriber losses.
- Lawrence Summers, the former US Treasury secretary in the Clinton administration who recently resigned as Harvard University’s president this year because of a sexism controversy, will join NY hedge fund DE Shaw as a part-time managing director.
- Shell Canada Ltd. CEO Mather said the company’s planned expansion of its oil-sands operations in northeastern Alberta would remain viable should oil prices fall to $30 a barrel.
- OAO Tatneft, Russia’s sixth-largest oil producer, said it will spend more on projects to pump crude from bitumen deposits after the Russian government dropped taxes on fields with hard-to-recover reserves.
- Saudi Arabian Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi said OPEC will “absolutely” cut 1 million barrels a day from production to halt a three-month plunge in prices.
- NBC Universal will cut 700 jobs and reduce spending at its struggling NBC television network to save $750 million a year.
- Ritchie Capital Management Ltd. investors, disappointed by losses in the company’s biggest hedge fund, approved a plan to get 80% of their money back over the next 2 ½ years, according to clients.
- China said its top statistician Qiu Xiaohua was fired because he was linked to misuse of Shanghai’s state pension fund, a scandal which has already brought down the city’s party chief Chen Liangyu.
- Economic growth in Russia, the world’s biggest producer of oil and natural gas, will probably slow to 6% next year from 6.6% this year as the economy remains too dependent on oil, a top government official said.
- World-Wide Group, a closely-held residential developer, will spend $500 million to redevelop two NYC public schools and surround them with new condominiums and stores, real estate Web site GlobeSt.com reported.
Wall Street Journal:
- The Boston Globe will probably have its first loss in recent times on customer defections. Losses at the Globe will drag down earnings at the NY Times, which purchased the Boston daily in 1993 for $1.1 billion.
- Microsoft’s upgraded Internet Explorer Web Browser, the IE7, doesn’t have many features that would prompt users of rival browsers to switch to it, Walt Mossberg wrote.
NY Times:
- Three of the four largest music companies obtained a stake in YouTube before the video Web site agreed to be sold to Google(GOOG) for $1.67 billion.
- Online service Second Life, which started in 1999 as a video game, is becoming a test ground for corporate marketers such as Sony BMG Music Entertainment, Sun Microsystems, Nissan Motor, Adidas AG and Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide.
- The North Korean government’s control over its citizens is diminishing because it is getting easier for defectors to buy their way out, citing defectors, brokers, South Korean Christian Missionaries and other experts on the subject.
- Parents are keeping their children out of kindergarten longer to give them a competitive edge against younger, less-prepared classmates.
NY Post:
- NYC Mayor Bloomberg proposed a bill yesterday that would close down nightclubs that are the scene of two or more serious crimes in a year.
Daily Telegraph:
- ReNeuron Group Plc, a UK biotech company, has been selected to take part in a US program aimed at finding a way to get the body to start growing its own stem cells.
USA Today:
- About three-quarters of the New Orleans homeowners seeking federal grants plan to rebuild their homes in flood areas.
AP:
- Wal-Mart(WMT) plans to say today that it will extend a program offering $4 prescriptions for some generic drugs to 14 additional states.
Financial Times:
- The Chicago Merc(CME) could be forced to close the metals trading operations it will gain from its $8 billion acquisition of Chicago Board of Trade(CBOT), to safeguard its commodities agreement with the NY Merc.
Daily Telegraph:
- Hedge funds may be committing market abuses and encouraging brokers to do so, according to Britain’s Financial Services Authority.
Globe and Mail:
- Ontario legislators may ban advertising of illegal gambling Web sites because the government doesn’t have the authority to ban them outright.
Australian Associated Press:
- Mincor Resources Ltd. plans to boost nickel production in the Kambalda region of Western Australia by 5,000 metric tons within 3 years.
- Tribune(TRB) and New York Times(NYT), the second- and third-largest US newspaper publishers, reported third-quarter results that missed analysts’ estimates amid continuing subscriber losses.
- Lawrence Summers, the former US Treasury secretary in the Clinton administration who recently resigned as Harvard University’s president this year because of a sexism controversy, will join NY hedge fund DE Shaw as a part-time managing director.
- Shell Canada Ltd. CEO Mather said the company’s planned expansion of its oil-sands operations in northeastern Alberta would remain viable should oil prices fall to $30 a barrel.
- OAO Tatneft, Russia’s sixth-largest oil producer, said it will spend more on projects to pump crude from bitumen deposits after the Russian government dropped taxes on fields with hard-to-recover reserves.
- Saudi Arabian Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi said OPEC will “absolutely” cut 1 million barrels a day from production to halt a three-month plunge in prices.
- NBC Universal will cut 700 jobs and reduce spending at its struggling NBC television network to save $750 million a year.
- Ritchie Capital Management Ltd. investors, disappointed by losses in the company’s biggest hedge fund, approved a plan to get 80% of their money back over the next 2 ½ years, according to clients.
- China said its top statistician Qiu Xiaohua was fired because he was linked to misuse of Shanghai’s state pension fund, a scandal which has already brought down the city’s party chief Chen Liangyu.
- Economic growth in Russia, the world’s biggest producer of oil and natural gas, will probably slow to 6% next year from 6.6% this year as the economy remains too dependent on oil, a top government official said.
- World-Wide Group, a closely-held residential developer, will spend $500 million to redevelop two NYC public schools and surround them with new condominiums and stores, real estate Web site GlobeSt.com reported.
Wall Street Journal:
- The Boston Globe will probably have its first loss in recent times on customer defections. Losses at the Globe will drag down earnings at the NY Times, which purchased the Boston daily in 1993 for $1.1 billion.
- Microsoft’s upgraded Internet Explorer Web Browser, the IE7, doesn’t have many features that would prompt users of rival browsers to switch to it, Walt Mossberg wrote.
NY Times:
- Three of the four largest music companies obtained a stake in YouTube before the video Web site agreed to be sold to Google(GOOG) for $1.67 billion.
- Online service Second Life, which started in 1999 as a video game, is becoming a test ground for corporate marketers such as Sony BMG Music Entertainment, Sun Microsystems, Nissan Motor, Adidas AG and Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide.
- The North Korean government’s control over its citizens is diminishing because it is getting easier for defectors to buy their way out, citing defectors, brokers, South Korean Christian Missionaries and other experts on the subject.
- Parents are keeping their children out of kindergarten longer to give them a competitive edge against younger, less-prepared classmates.
NY Post:
- NYC Mayor Bloomberg proposed a bill yesterday that would close down nightclubs that are the scene of two or more serious crimes in a year.
Daily Telegraph:
- ReNeuron Group Plc, a UK biotech company, has been selected to take part in a US program aimed at finding a way to get the body to start growing its own stem cells.
USA Today:
- About three-quarters of the New Orleans homeowners seeking federal grants plan to rebuild their homes in flood areas.
AP:
- Wal-Mart(WMT) plans to say today that it will extend a program offering $4 prescriptions for some generic drugs to 14 additional states.
Financial Times:
- The Chicago Merc(CME) could be forced to close the metals trading operations it will gain from its $8 billion acquisition of Chicago Board of Trade(CBOT), to safeguard its commodities agreement with the NY Merc.
Daily Telegraph:
- Hedge funds may be committing market abuses and encouraging brokers to do so, according to Britain’s Financial Services Authority.
Globe and Mail:
- Ontario legislators may ban advertising of illegal gambling Web sites because the government doesn’t have the authority to ban them outright.
Australian Associated Press:
- Mincor Resources Ltd. plans to boost nickel production in the Kambalda region of Western Australia by 5,000 metric tons within 3 years.
Job Market Still Healthy, Leading Indicators Rise Slightly, Philly Fed Falls Slightly, Prices Paid Down 52% from October Highs
- Initial Jobless Claims for last week fell to 299K versus estimates of 310K and 309K the prior week.
- Continuing Claims rose to 2453K versus estimates of 2445K and 2428K prior.
- Leading Indicators for September rose .1% versus estimates of a .3% increase and a .2% decline in August.
- The Philly Fed for October fell to -.7 versus estimates of 7.0 and a reading of -.4 in Septebmer.
- Continuing Claims rose to 2453K versus estimates of 2445K and 2428K prior.
- Leading Indicators for September rose .1% versus estimates of a .3% increase and a .2% decline in August.
- The Philly Fed for October fell to -.7 versus estimates of 7.0 and a reading of -.4 in Septebmer.
BOTTOM LINE: The number of Americans filing first-time claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week to the lowest level in almost three months, suggesting the job market remains buoyant, Bloomberg reported. The four-week moving-average fell to 307,750 from 313,500 the prior week. The unemployment rate dropped in September to a historically low 4.6%. The unemployment rate among those eligible for jobless benefits, which tracks the US unemployment rate, held steady at 1.9% this week. I continue to believe the job market will remain healthy over the intermediate-term without generating substantially unit labor cost increases.
An index of US leading economic indicators rose less than expected in September, Bloomberg reported. Five of ten indicators contributed to a gain. Improving confidence, rising incomes and higher stock prices are boosting the leading indicators. I expect GDP growth to come in around 1.5-2.0% in the third-quarter before rebounding to around 3-3.5% this quarter.
Manufacturing in the Philly area unexpectedly contracted slightly for a second month, Bloomberg reported. However, the new orders component of the index surged to 13.4 from -1.3 in September. The prices paid component fell to 32 from 38.1 the prior month. The prices paid component has plunged 52% from October 2005 highs. I expect the Philly Fed to rebound next month as manufacturers rebuild low inventories and consumer spending remains strong.
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