Sunday, April 01, 2007

Monday Watch

Weekend Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Ceridian Corp.(CEN) shares rose after a report that buyout firms Bain Capital LLC and Blackstone Group LP are in talks to acquire the provider of human-resources and payroll services.
- French presidential contender Nicolas Sarkozy said if elected in May he will instruct his finance minister to seek a European Union accord against “speculation” by hedge funds. Sarkozy repeated criticism of European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet for allowing the euro to appreciate against other countries, damaging French competitiveness. “It can’t go on any more,” he said. “We didn’t make the euro so that we can’t make any airplanes.”
- China’s commerce ministry said US tariffs on imports of coated paper from the nation are unacceptable and it reserves the right to take “necessary” action.
- Nestle SA’s Purina Pet Care became the third pet-food manufacturer to pull some of its products yesterday after learning it had received contaminated ingredients tied to a recall that has killed at least 16 animals.
- Merck & Co.(MRK) won US approval to sell Janumet, the first pill to treat type-2 diabetes by targeting all causes of the disease.
- Posco Power, wholly-owned by Posco, the world’s third-largest steelmaker, plans to spend $239 million to build a fuel cell power plant in Pohang, South Korea.
- Bankers are salivating over about $2 billion of fees from leveraged buyouts in the first quarter, and that’s just a fraction of what they’re assured of earning in the busiest year so far for mergers and acquisitions.
- The Reserve Bank of India will probably keep rates unchanged in its next monetary policy announcement on April 24 after the Mumbai-based bank unexpectedly raised its key overnight lending rate and reserve requirement for lenders on March 30.
- The Tankan Survey, Japan’s most closely watched gauge of business sentiment, showed manufacturer confidence fell to 23 points in March from 25 in December, the Bank of Japan said.
- Corn prices are falling the maximum daily limit allowed by the Chicago Board of Trade after a government survey showed US farmers plan to sow 15% more grain this spring, the most since 1944 and above analysts’ estimates. Corn futures for May delivery fell 20 cents, or 5.3%, to $3.545 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade, the second day of limit losses. Prices have plunged 19% from their February 26 high of $4.50/bushel.
- China National Petroleum Corp., the nation's biggest oil company, said production from offshore fields may rise 300% within three years, partly on discoveries of new deposits.
- China's manufacturing activity rose at a slower pace in March as companies cut output and orders fell, according to a survey of purchasing managers published by CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets.

Wall Street Journal:
- General Motors Corp.(GM) is studying selling in the US mini cars capable of getting 50 miles of gasoline to the gallon, citing a company executive. The company will show three different models of mini cars, which are smaller than sub-compact cars like GM’s Chevrolet Aveo, at the NY auto show on April 4.
- AirTran Holdings(AAI) is likely to increase its cash-and-stock takeover offer for discount carrier Midwest Air Group(MEH) by 13%.

Wired:
- Our 10th annual list of the most innovative companies in the world.

NY Times:
- Shock radio jock Howard Stern has been plugging contestant Sanjaya Malakar to win “American Idol,” Fox’s music talent show, as a way to derail the top-rated television program. Stern said he hoped to ruin the talent show and destroy its popularity by promoting the not-so-capable Malakar.
- Mobile phones in the US will soon be able to read special bar codes on buildings and products that will generate videos, pictures or text on device display screens.
- Gus Sansone has not had to pay an electricity bill in five years, thanks to the 35-mile-an-hour wind gusts that whip past his house on the high desert of San Bernardino County, Calif.
- Kohlberg Kravis Roberts is close to a deal to buy First Data Corp.(FDC) for more than $20 billion.

LA Times:
- Northrop Grumman Corp.(NOC), the third-largest US defense contractor, has been expanding into information and services businesses in anticipation of a decline in US government spending on military and defense programs.

NY Post:
- New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg is the city’s richest person with an estimated wealth of $13.6 billion, citing Fortune magazine. Carl Icahn is second at more than $13 billion.

Newsweek:
- Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah warned Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad when he recently visited the kingdom about the consequences of Iran pursuing its uranium enrichment program.

Washington Post:
- Sirius Satellite Radio’s(SIRI) proposed purchase of XM Satellite Radio Holdings(XMSR) faces opposition from broadcasters and a consumer group who say it would mean higher prices.

Institutional Investor.com:
- Global hedge fund assets have surged 30% to $2.079 trillion with three-fourths of that amount managed by the world’s largest hedge funds, according to HedgeFund Intelligence.

Chicago Tribune:
- Illinois Governor Rod Blagojevich proposed increasing taxes on business by another $1 billion, citing a Blagojevich spokeswoman. Blagojevich’s business levy is aimed at increasing education funding and enacting a health-care coverage plan.

AP:
- Democratic House Speaker Nancy Pelosi will tell Syrian officials during her trip to Damascus this week that Israel will agree to peace talks if Syria stops its support of Palestinian militants. On March 30, White House spokesman Dana Perino denounced Pelosi’s visit to Syria as a “really bad idea” and said “someone should take a step back and think about the message that it sends and the message that it send to our allies.”

EE Times:
- The total market for commercial solar cell production equipment will grow from revenues of $1.2 billion in 2006 to $4.5 billion in 2010, according to The Information Network, a New Tripoli, Penn.-based market research company.

Financial Times:
- Private equity deals are more likely to add jobs at affected companies rather than reduce them. An analysis of the 30 biggest transactions conducted between 2003 and 2004 showed that the total number of jobs at those companies rose 25%.
- Three-quarters of loans to junk-rated US companies are provided by hedge funds and other non-bank lenders.
- Internet advertising will overtake worldwide radio advertising in 2008, citing media buyer Zenith Optimedia.

AFP:
- French officials are investigating vandalism at a Jewish cemetery in Lille, Northern France, in which 51 tombstones were broken or knocked over. Anti-Semitic attacks in France rose by 45% between 2005-2006.

Welt am Sonntag:
- DaimlerChrysler AG(DCX) may sell its money-losing Chrysler unit for between $6 billion and $9 billion, which is more than initially estimated.

South China Morning Post:
- The joint venture between MGM Mirage(MGM) and Pansy Ho is planning to develop its second casino in Macau on a 900,000 square foot site along the city’s Cotai Strip.

Al-Hayat:
- Trade between Germany and Arab countries grew 34% in 2006 to $45 billion, citing a report by the Arab-German Chamber of Commerce.

Weekend Recommendations
Barron's:
- Made positive comments on (BRCM), (WYE), (ABY), (BOW) and (WLT).
- Made negative comments on (FMD).

Citigroup:
- Reiterated Buy on Micron Technology(MU). Despite an expected shortfall relative to published consensus, we have increased conviction in our global DRAM upgrade.

Morgan Stanley:
- Reiterated Overweight on Merck(MRK), target $53.

Night Trading
Asian indices are +.25% to +.50% on average.
S&P 500 indicated +.11%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated +.08%.

Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Conference Calendar
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
- (AWI)/.01

Upcoming Splits
- (BBD) 2-for-1
- (BWS) 2-for-1
- (NKE) 2-for-1

Economic Releases
10:00 am EST
- ISM Manufacturing for March is estimated to fall to 51.1 versus 52.3 in February.
- ISM Prices Paid for March is estimated to fall to 58.5 versus 59.0 in February.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian Indices are mostly higher, boosted by automaker and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.

Weekly Outlook

Click here for The Week Ahead by Reuters
Click here for Stocks in Focus for Monday by MarketWatch

There are a number of economic reports of note and some significant corporate earnings reports scheduled for release this week.

Economic reports for the week include:

Mon. - ISM Manufacturing, ISM Prices Paid

Tues. - Pending Home Sales, Total Vehicle Sales, weekly retail sales

Wed. - weekly MBA Mortgage Applications, weekly EIA energy inventory data, Challenger Job Cuts, ADP Employment Change, Factory Orders, ISM Non-Manufacturing

Thur. - Initial Jobless Claims

Fri. - Change in Non-farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings, Wholesale Inventories, Consumer Credit

Some of the more noteworthy companies that release quarterly earnings this week are:

Mon. - Armstrong World Industries(AWI)

Tues. - Intl. Speedway(ISCA), Shuffle Master(SHFL)

Wed. - Acuity Brands(AYI), AES Corp.(AES), Best Buy(BBY), Circuit City(CC), Delta & Pine Land(DLP), Micron Technology(MU), Monsanto(MON)

Thur. - American Greetings(AM), Constellation Brands(STZ), Immucor(BLUD), Pier 1(PIR), World Wrestling(WWE)

Fri. - None of note

Other events that have market-moving potential this week include:

Mon. - Howard Weil Energy Conference, Fed’s Poole speaking

Tue. - Howard Weil Energy Conference

Wed. - Morgan Stanley Global Automotive Conference, Bank of America Mini Healthcare Conference, Howard Weil Energy Conference, Prudential Metals & Mining Conference, Bank of England Policy Meeting

Thur. - Howard Weil Energy Conference, Morgan Stanley Global Automotive Conference

Fri. - None of note

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week modestly higher on better economic data, a firmer US dollar, buyout speculation, lower energy prices, short-covering and bargain-hunting. My trading indicators are giving mostly bullish signals and the Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.

Saturday, March 31, 2007

Chart of Interest

Photo Sharing and Video Hosting at Photobucket

Market Week in Review

S&P 500 1,420.86 -1.06%*

Photo Sharing and Video Hosting at Photobucket

Click here for the Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

Friday, March 30, 2007

Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices
S&P 500 1,420.86 -1.06%
DJIA 12,354.35 -1.01%
NASDAQ 2,421.64 -1.11%
Russell 2000 800.71 -1.08%
Wilshire 5000 14,354.03 -1.01%
Russell 1000 Growth 558.59 -1.22%
Russell 1000 Value 823.02 -.86%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 702.15 -.81%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 955.53 -1.0%
Morgan Stanley Technology 556.42 -.77%
Transports 4,810.70 -3.2%
Utilities 500.18 +.12%
MSCI Emerging Markets 118.32 +1.64%

Sentiment/Internals
NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 68,908 -1.9%
Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index +94 -72.2%
Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 39.0% -50.0%
CFTC Oil Large Speculative Longs 179,645 +5.1%
Total Put/Call 1.19 +32.2%
NYSE Arms 1.45 +61.1%
Volatility(VIX) 14.64 +13.05%
ISE Sentiment 94.0 -16.8%
AAII % Bulls 42.68 -2.73%
AAII % Bears 25.61 -22.6%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 65.72 +5.87%
Reformulated Gasoline 205.25 +5.65%
Natural Gas 7.71 +4.37%
Heating Oil 186.75 +8.57%
Gold 669.40 +.81%
Base Metals 249.55 +.75%
Copper 314.85 +2.27%

Economy
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.64% +3 basis points
4-Wk MA of Jobless Claims 316,800 -2.2%
Average 30-year Mortgage Rate 6.16% unch.
Weekly Mortgage Applications 671.0 -.16%
Weekly Retail Sales +3.9%
Nationwide Gas $2.63/gallon +.06/gallon
US Heating Demand Next 7 Days 13.3% below normal
ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index 140.60 +.36%
US Dollar Index 82.93 -.42%
CRB Index 316.88 +1.91%

Leading Sectors
Nanotechnology +2.73%
Steel +2.0%
Tobacco +1.6%
Telecom +.83%
Internet +.51%

Lagging Sectors
I-Banks -2.93%
Oil Tankers -3.4%
Coal -3.6%
Airlines -3.6%
Homebuilders -4.8%

One-Week High-Volume Gainers
One-Week High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
- Crude oil is falling .13/bbl., notwithstanding rumors surrounding the situation with Iran and the UK sailors.
- Corn prices are falling the maximum daily limit of 5% after a government survey showed US farmers plan to sow more of the grain than analysts expected this spring and the most since 1944. Soybeans and wheat are also falling on the report.
- Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, seeking to bolster his nation’s influence in Latin America, heads to Camp David tomorrow for the first state visit to the US presidential retreat in 16 years by a leader from the region.
- The US dollar fell against the euro and declined versus the yen as the US added tariffs on imports from China.
- European Union foreign ministers pressed Iran to release 15 captive British sailors and marines, calling the arrest a “big mistake” that could do further damage to Iran’s international standing.

Wall Street Journal:
- Germany’s economic recovery is benefiting the west of the country far more than the east, where jobs remain scarce and unemployment levels much higher.

NY Times:
- An increasing number of US middle-aged and elderly people are playing non-violent, intellectually challenging video games to keep their minds sharp.

Financial Times:
- Global mergers and acquisitions reached $1.13 trillion in the first three months of 2007, a 14% increase from the same period last year, citing data provider Dealogic.

Marine Link:
- Azerbaijan plans to double its oil output by 2010, pushing it to 65 million tons a year, citing the country’s energy minister.

Xinhua News Agency:
- Volkswagen AG plans to make its China-made cars at least 20% more fuel efficient by 2010.