Wednesday, December 19, 2007

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

Small-cap Value (-.63%)

Sector Underperformers:

Restaurants (-2.68%), Oil Tankers (-1.86%) and Retail (-1.67%)

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

KFS, DRI, SLM, PKE, UNP, ADCT, SLXP, RMBS and TECUA

Economic Releases

- None of note

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

Large-cap Value (+.97%)

Sector Outperformers:

I-Banks (+1.78%), Steel (+1.78%) and Construction (+1.62%)

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

GRT, BCR, AIR, RZ, DGIT, CAKE, FSIN, NUAN, TTWO, JOYG, ICLR, SOLF, CHNR, NDSN, SDTH, HMSY, RIGL, LEAP, DLLR, SYNA, FCSX, MANT, BUCY, GSIC, VSL, DRL, CHU and RICK

Links of Interest

Market Snapshot Commentary
Market Performance Summary
Style Performance
Sector Performance
WSJ Data Center
Top 20 Biz Stories

IBD Breaking News

Movers & Shakers

Upgrades/Downgrades

In Play

NYSE Unusual Volume

NASDAQ Unusual Volume

Hot Spots

Option Dragon

NASDAQ 100 Heatmap

DJIA Quick Charts

Chart Toppers

Intraday Chart/Quote

Dow Jones Hedge Fund Indexes

Tuesday, December 18, 2007

Wednesday Watch

Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said the Bush administration would seek to alter a mortgage industry plan aimed at helping subprime borrowers should it fail to limit a wave of foreclosures. “We’re going to be all over this, we’re going to watch it and make changes if need be,” said Paulson.
- Japan’s government slashed its economic growth forecast after stricter rules for obtaining building permits caused housing starts to plummet to a four-decade low.
- The yen traded near a five-week low against the dollar after global stocks gained, leading investors to borrow in Japan and buy higher-yielding assets elsewhere.

- NTT DoCoMo Inc. rose the most in two weeks in Tokyo trading after a report said it’s in talks with Apple Inc.(AAPL) to sell the iPhone handset in the country.

MarketWatch.com:
- Give kids reason to give this holiday.
- Choppy waters not as rough as they seem. From an historic perspective, the stock market hasn’t been that volatile recently.

BusinessWeek.com:
- Logitech(LOGI): A Pick to Click. S&P likes the PC accessory maker’s history of strong growth – and its attractively valued stock – and rates the shares strong buy.
- Inside iPod Touch. The Touch will probably set the standard for iPod iterations to come, and our teardown reveals it’s more than just an iPhone you can’t make calls on.
- New Report Cuts China Economy Down a Size. A new Asian Development Bank study suggests that China’s gross domestic product on a purchasing power parity basis is 40% smaller than previously thought.

USA Today.com:
- Sales picture sharpens for HD, the new ‘biggest thing’ in tech.

Financial Times:
- Goldman encounters hard-to-please investors.

Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Citigroup:

- Upgraded (NILE) to Buy, target $88.
- Upgraded (MXIM) to Buy, target $35.

Night Trading
Asian Indices are +.25% to +2.0% on average.
S&P 500 futures +.12%.
NASDAQ 100 futures +.17%.

Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Pre-market Stock Quote/Chart
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
WSJ Intl Markets Performance
Commodity Movers
Top 25 Stories

Top 20 Business Stories
Today in IBD
In Play
Bond Ticker
Economic Preview/Calendar
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Upgrades/Downgrades
Rasmussen Business/Economy Polling
CNBC Guest Schedule

Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- (KMX)/.17
- (JOYG)/.80
- (GIS)/1.13
- (MLHR)/.59
- (NKE)/.66
- (ORCL)/.27
- (HWAY)/.29
- (SCS)/.28
- (PAYX)/.39
- (COMS)/.02
- (ACN)/.56
- (AZPN)/.10
- (MS)/-.39
- (ATU)/.48
- (CMC)/.62

Upcoming Splits
- None of note

Economic Releases
10:30 am EST

- Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil drawdown of 1,500,000 barrels versus a 722,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are expected to rise by 800,000 barrels versus a 1,618,000 barrel build the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by 500,000 barrels versus an 810,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is expected to rise by .25% versus a .68% decline the prior week.

Other Potential Market Movers
- The Fed’s Lacker speaking, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report and (UST) analyst meeting could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by technology shares and financial stocks in the region. I expect US equities to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Finish Near Session Highs, Boosted By Small-Caps

Indices
S&P 500 1,454.98 +.63%
DJIA 13,232.47 +.50%
NASDAQ 2,596.03 +.84%
Russell 2000 754.06 +2.03%
Wilshire 5000 14,592.92 +.68%
Russell 1000 Growth 604.80 +.53%
Russell 1000 Value 789.42 +.64%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 741.22 +.42%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 974.30 +.69%
Morgan Stanley Technology 612.33 +.69%
Transports 4,662.73 +.42%
Utilities 540.64 +1.41%
MSCI Emerging Markets 147.32 +1.14%

Sentiment/Internals
Total Put/Call 1.03 -7.21%
NYSE Arms .86 -13.31%
Volatility(VIX) 22.64 -7.67%
ISE Sentiment 121.0 +14.15%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil $90.49 -.15%
Reformulated Gasoline 230.45 -1.32%
Natural Gas 7.16 +1.85%
Heating Oil 255.57 -1.62%
Gold 806.90 +.95%
Base Metals 206.10 -.23%
Copper 289.20 +.10%

Economy
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.12% -3 basis points
US Dollar 77.43 +.04%
CRB Index 347.05 -.27%

Leading Sectors
Alternative Energy +3.98%
Computer Services +1.54%
Biotech +1.31%

Lagging Sectors
Tobacco -.38%
Gaming -.79%
I-Banks 1.24%

Evening Review
Market Summary
Today’s Movers
Market Performance Summary
WSJ Data Center
Sector Performance
ETF Performance
Style Performance
Commodity Movers
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
S&P 500 Gallery View
Timely Economic Charts
GuruFocus.com
PM Market Call
After-hours Commentary
After-hours Movers

After-hours Stock Quote
In Play


Afternoon Recommendations
Bank of America:

- Rated (XRTX) Buy, target $20.
- Rated (ELX) Buy, target $22.

Needham:
- Rated (POWI) Buy, target $37.
- Rated (FMCN) Buy, target $73.
- Rated (SNDA) Buy, target $45.

Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- TD Ameritrade(AMTD) sees December Quarter EPS $.39, well above prior estimates of .27-.33 and analysts’ estimates of .32. The stock is rising 5% in after-hours trading.
- Goldman Sachs Group(GS) said clients pulled about $3 billion from quantitative hedge funds including Global Alpha in the fiscal fourth quarter and withdrawals will increase over the next three months.

- Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Richard Fisher said that while the US economy appears to be slowing, the central bank shouldn’t “overreact” and must ensure inflation stays low. “The actions we’ve taken should provide some buoyancy through the course of next year to the economy,” he said.
- The perceived risk of US companies defaulting on their debt fell as the European Central Bank injected an unprecedented $500 billion into the banking system. The Markit CDX North America Investment Grade Index, a US benchmark for the cost of protecting debt from default, fell 1.75 basis points to 77 basis points. Credit-default swap prices decline as perceptions of credit quality improve. The cost to borrow in euros plunged after the central bank stepped in as part of a global effort to ease credit-market gridlock. The two-week euro interbank offered rate dropped a record 50 basis points to 4.45%, the European Banking Federation said.
- Welsh, Carson, Anderson & Stowe, the buyout firm that has invested $16 billion since its founding in 1979, plans to buy as much as $1 billion of bank loans and debt securities hurt by this year’s credit-market turmoil.
- Palm Inc., the maker of the Treo e-mail phone, forecast profit and sales that missed analysts’ estimates after customers defected to the BlackBerry and iPhone. The shares fell 8.4% in late trading.

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished higher today on gains in my Software longs, Biotech longs, Medical longs and Retail longs. I did not trade in the final hour, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market was positive today as the advance/decline line finished higher, most sectors rose and volume was above average. Measures of investor anxiety were slightly above average into the close. Today's overall market action was bullish. The fact that the (XLF) finished +.02 today despite the meaningful decline in leader Goldman Sachs(GS) is a positive. As well, the Russell 2000 outperformed substantially, which may indicate diminishing recession fears. I suspect we will see a decent rally in the broad market from current levels into year-end. Nikkei futures are indicating an up 90 open in Japan.