Friday, June 13, 2008

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
- US financial markets have shown a “pronounced turnaround” since March, former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said today. The worse is over for the credit crisis, or will be soon, and there’s now a “reduced possibility” of a deep recession, Greenspan said.
- BlackRock Inc.(BLK), the largest publicly traded fund manager in the US, bought Lehman Brothers(LEH) shares this week and remains optimistic about the company’s prospects, a BlackRock executive said.
- The US dollar headed for its biggest weekly gain in more than three years against the euro on speculation officials from the G-8 meeting over the weekend will signal they favor a stronger US currency.

- The rally that drove oil to a record $139.12 a barrel last week surpassed the gains in the Internet stocks that preceded the dot-com crash in 2000. Crude rose 697% since trading at $17.45 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange in November 2001, and reached 28 record highs this year. The last time a similar pattern was seen in equities was eight years ago, when Internet-related stocks sent the Nasdaq Composite Index up 640% to its highest level ever, according to data compiled by Bloomberg and Bespoke Investment Group. The Nasdaq tumbled 78% form its March 2000 peak. “There’s nothing different between this mania, the dot-com mania, the real estate mania, the Dow Jones mania of the 1920s, the South Sea bubble and the Dutch tulip-bulb mania,” said Stephen Schork, of the Schork Group, whose firms advises OPEC, Wall Street firms and oil companies on the outlook for energy prices. “History repeats itself over and over again,” he said. Investors, including pension funds, added about $250 billion to commodity index trading strategies since 2003. Commodity index traders account for about 40% of the open interest, or outstanding contracts, in the 12 agricultural commodities for which the CFTC reports data, according to Bianco Research. Investors plowed $199 billion into mutual funds dedicated to US equities during the 10-month stretch leading up to the bursting of the stock market bubble in 2000, including $36.5 billion in February of that year.

- The UK will demand disclosure of short selling in rights offerings and may restrict investors from borrowing the stocks after plunging share prices hampered banks’ attempts to increase capital.
- Google Inc.(GOOG) will get a profit boost of 15 cents a share next year from the advertising agreement struck with Yahoo!(YHOO) yesterday, Merrill Lynch(MER) said.
- Bruce McCain, head of investment strategy at Key Private Bank, which oversees $30 billion says US stock market to improve in fall. (video)
- Senators Dianne Feinstein and Ted Stevens introduced legislation that aims to limit speculation in oil markets and deflate record prices. “It is becoming clear that rampant speculation in energy markets by institutional investors may be driving up the price of oil and gas,” Feinstein said. “It’s time to level the playing field, and require position limits for all speculators.” The legislation would require the CFTC to review trading practices of institutional investors, such as pension funds and endowments, and impose limits on how much those investors can hold in a given market.
- Lead fell in London, heading for a fourth week of losses in London, after stockpiles of the metal jumped the most in seven months. “The fundamentals are clearly fairly poor and getting worse day-by-day” Dan Smith, an analyst at Standard Chartered Plc, said.
- Ireland vetoed the European Union’s new governing treaty, casting a pall over efforts to forge a more united Europe.
- Crude oil fell as Saudi Arabian Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi said record prices are “unjustified” and the state oil company signaled it may soon start pumping from a new field.
- General Electric(GE), whose shares neared a five-year low today partly on concern it may need to pump cash into its finance units, repeated that no outside infusion is needed to keep its AAA credit rating.
- India’s inflation accelerated to a seven-year high on soaring commodities and energy prices, stock speculation the central bank will increase interest rates next month. Wholesale prices jumped 8.75% in the week to May 31, after gaining 8.24% in the previous week, the government said.

Wall Street Journal:
- The NYSE is planning to unveil a series of proposed new rules Friday in an effort to turn around its falling market share.
- The rising cost of shipping everything from industrial-pump parts to lawn-mower batteries to living-room sofas is forcing some manufacturers to bring production back to North America and freeze plans to send work overseas.

NY Times:
- Media Charged With Sexism in Clinton Coverage. Angered by what they consider sexist news coverage of Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton’s bid for the Democratic presidential nomination, many women and erstwhile Clinton supporters are proposing boycotts of the cable networks, putting up videos on a “Media Hall of Sham,” starting a national conversation about sexism and pushing Mrs. Clinton’s rival, Senator Barack Obama, to address the matter.

- Companies traditionally get loans from banks, but with so many lenders stretched and with credit so tight these days, businesses are turning to what might seem like an unlikely source for cash: hedge funds.

CNBC.com:
- Hedge Fund Bubble to Burst? (video)

Financial Times:
- UK retail market ‘worst since early 1990s’
- Argentine debt surge raises specter of default.

Shanghai Securities News:
- China’s currency regulator may boost controls on trade credit to stem capital inflows that bet on yuan gains.

Middle East Economic Survey:
- Saudi Arabia is likely to propose a “sizable” increase in oil production at a June 22 meeting with consumers to lower prices. Current oil prices threaten the global economy and hurt the long-term interests of oil producers, Ibrahim al-Muhanna, an adviser to Saudi Arabian Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi, said. The “majority” of additional production would come from Saudi Arabia’s 500,000 barrel-a-day Khursaniyah oil field, which is expected to come on stream soon.

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

Large-cap Value +.11%

Sector Underperformers:

Banksirlind (-2.65%), REITs (-.45%) and Insurance (-.37%)

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

FITB, WB, ONB, PAS, KO, GEOI, YHOO, REXX, UBSI, SBNY, CCH and TCB

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

1) IGT 2) NTRI 3) ADS 4) ADM 5) FITB

CPI Rises More Than Estimates, Confidence Still Depressed

- The Consumer Price Index for May rose .6% versus estimates of a .5% gain and a .2% increase in April.

- The CPI Ex Food & Energy for May rose .2% versus estimates of a .2% increase and a .1% gain in April.

- Preliminary Univ. of Mich. Consumer Confidence for June fell to 56.7 versus estimates of 59.0 and 59.8 in May.

BOTTOM LINE: US consumer prices rose more than forecast in May as Americans paid more for fuel, Bloomberg reported. However, core prices remained tame, rising .2%. Energy expenses jumped 4.4% after being unch. the prior month. Gasoline prices rose 5.7% and fuel oil costs soared 10%. Food prices, which account for about a fifth of the CPI, rose .3%, compared with a .9% jump in April. Prices for new vehicles, clothing and prescription drugs all fell in May. The Consumer Price Index is now rising at a 4.2% rate year-over-year, modestly above the 20-year average of 3.1%, but well below the 6.3% rate seen in October 1990 and also below the 4.7% rate seen in September 2005. The Core CPI is rising at a 2.3% rate year-over-year, modestly below the 20-year average of 2.9% and well below the 5.6% rate seen in February 1991 and below the 2.9% rate in September 2006. I still expect inflation gauges to decelerate meaningfully from current levels over the intermediate-term.

Confidence among US consumers fell to the lowest level since 1980 in June, hurt by record gasoline prices, Bloomberg reported. The Expectations component fell to 49 versus 51.1 in May. The Current Conditions component fell to 68.7 from 73.3 the prior month. Consumer Confidence has a strong negative correlation with the price of gas. I still expect confidence to improve dramatically over the intermediate-term as the commodity bubble bursts. The 10-year TIPS spread, a good gauge of inflation expectations, is stable at 2.52% on today’s reports. The 10-year yield is falling 3 basis points and the US Dollar Index is rallying .3% on today’s reports.

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

Mid-cap Growth (+1.71%)

Sector Outperformers:

Airlines (+4.01%), I-Banks (+3.52%) and Software (+2.84%)

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

LEH, IXYS, DMRC, SQNM, PWRD, WPPGY, ODFL, ALGT, MSFT, CHDX, RECN, CMED, DRYS, GSOL, SIMO, BBBB, TBSI, AMRI, TISI, GMCR, GPRO, IGW, PXN, ARB, PJC, AMT and IAI

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

1) WSM 2) RYL 3) CAM 4) FITB 5) MU

Links of Interest

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Dow Jones Hedge Fund Indexes

Thursday, June 12, 2008

Friday Watch

Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- The cost of protecting corporate bonds from default fell as Lehman Brothers(LEH) replaced CFO Erin Callan and President Joseph Gregory to reassure investors. Contracts on New York-based Lehman fell 10 basis points to 280 basis points, according to CMA Datavision. Contracts on Goldman Sachs Group Inc., the biggest securities firm, fell 4 basis points to 115.5 basis points, CMA prices show. Merrill Lynch & Co., the biggest U.S. brokerage, declined 13.5 basis points to 199, according to CMA.
- The US dollar headed for its biggest weekly gain since December 2004 against the yen on speculation officials from the Group of Eight nations will make comments discouraging the dollar’s decline when they meet today.
- G-8 Seeks to Aid Growth as Oil Fans Inflation Threat.
- Yahoo!(YHOO) agreed to let Google Inc.(GOOG) sell some of the advertisements it runs alongside Internet search results, seeking to shore up sales after ending talks with Microsoft Corp.(MSFT) about a combination.

- Petroleo Brasileiro SA(PBR) said it found a new light-crude deposit in the BM-S-9 block off the coast of Sao Paulo state.
- Investors should cut holdings of Asian local-currency bonds as quickening inflation is set to push up yields and put pressure on central banks to raise interest rates, Deutsche Bank Private Wealth Management said. The likelihood the US dollar will rebound against Asian currencies in the next 12 months also makes the region’s bonds less attractive.
- Investors should enter swap contracts in India to receive floating interest rates and avoid bonds as the central bank raises borrowing costs to curb inflation, JPMorgan Chase(JPM) said.

MarketWatch.com:
- Rising inflation poses threat to emerging markets. China, India, Turkey hardest hit; Brazil, a top performer, fights back.
- Lawmakers want to strip energy’s “veil of secrecy” House, Senate bills seek to reveal more on speculative practices, boost CFTC. Oil prices hitting a record $139-plus a barrel last week "has galvanized lawmakers and the regulators they oversee into actions that are increasingly likely to impact market fundamentals," said Kevin Book, an energy policy analyst at Friedman Billings Ramsey. The most visible Congressional efforts over the next several weeks "are likely to be directed at commodity investors themselves," he said.

CNBC.com:
- Lehman(LEH) CEO Is Listening To Possible Bids for Bank.
-
Amid all the headlines about soaring energy and food prices, many consumers may not notice that they're getting a break on some items they buy every day.

Smart Money.com:
- Think Oil Peaked? Here’s How to Play Your Hunch.

BusinessWeek.com:
- Inside the War Against China’s Blogs.

San Francisco Chronicle:
-.Call it Goo-Hoo – search portals form online ad partnership. For Google, the agreement is a major victory because adding a partner the size of Yahoo will add substantially to its already formidable financial might. At the same time, it deals a blow to Microsoft, which began its courtship of Yahoo hoping to win more traction online by gaining control of Yahoo's ad business. In the end, Microsoft only succeeded in pushing Yahoo into the embrace of mutual rival Google, of Mountain View.

Forbes.com:
- The 75 Most Reputable Companies in the US.

AP:
- Exxon Mobil(XOM) will sell its retail gasoline business. Exxon will sell its 820 company-owned gas stations and another 1,400 dealer-operated outlets.

Portfolio.com:
- Firefox 3 v. Explorer 7! Coming To A Computer Near You: June 17.
- Democratic Senators Dodd and Conrad are among the government officials who scored VIP loans from CEO Angelo Mozilo. Two US senators, two former Cabinet members, and a former ambassador to the UN received loans from Countrywide Financial(CFC) through a little-known program that waived points, lender fees, and company borrowing rules for prominent people.

USA Today.com:
- Some US firms seen as bargains. America is on sale, at least in the eyes of foreign companies.
- Consumers are the winners as wireless plans get cheaper.

Reuters:
- News and information company Bloomberg LP could be a hotly contested asset if a stake went on the block, although the most likely buyer was seen by some as founder and billionaire Michael Bloomberg himself.

Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Citigroup:

- Reiterated Buy on (MRVL), target $22.
- Reiterated Buy on (GME), target $66.

Night Trading
Asian Indices are -.75% to +.25% on average.
S&P 500 futures -.03%.
NASDAQ 100 futures -.10%.

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Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- (CAO)/.05

Upcoming Splits
- None of note

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST

- The Consumer Price Index for May is estimated to rise .5% versus a .2% gain in April
- The CPI Ex Food & Energy for May is estimated to rise .2% versus a .1% gain in April

10:00 am EST
- The Preliminary Univ. of Mich. Consumer Confidence Index for June is estimated to fall to 59.0 versus a reading of 59.8 in May.

Other Potential Market Movers
- The (N) analyst meeting could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by shipping and financial shares in the region. I expect US equities to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.