- European Central Bank council member Ewald Nowotny sees the economy stabilizing at a “low level” in 2010.“The clear decline has been stopped,” Nowotny said.This means growth rates next year will be positive, but will be too low to – for instance – stop an increase in unemployment.”
Late Buy/Sell Recommendations Citigroup:
- Upgraded (WMG) to Buy, target $6.
- Downgraded (MIR) to Sell, target $13.
- Downgraded (PPS) to Sell, target $15.
Night Trading Asian Indices are -.25% to +1.75% on average.
Asia Ex-Japan Inv Grade CDS Index 118.50 -5.0 basis points.
S&P 500 futures +.17%.
NASDAQ 100 futures +.19%.
Earnings of Note Company/EPS Estimate - (DBRN)/.36
- (CKR)/.21
- (ORCL)/.30
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
- The Consumer Price Index for August is estimated to rise .3% versus unch. in July.
- The CPI Ex Food & Energy for August is estimated to rise .1% versus a .1% gain in July.
- The 2Q Current Account Deficit is estimated to widen to -$92.0B versus -$101.5B in 1Q.
9:00 am EST
-.Net Long-term TIC Flows for July are estimated at $60.0B versus $90.7B in June.
9:15 am EST
- Industrial Production for August is estimated to rise .6% versus a .5% gain in July.
- Capacity Utilization for August is estimated to rise to 69.0% versus 68.5% in July.
9:30 am EST
- The NAHB Housing Market Index for September is estimated to rise to 19.0 versus 18.0 in August.
Upcoming Splits - None of note
Other Potential Market Movers - The weekly EIA energy inventory data, weekly MBA mortgage applications report, the Bloomberg Global Confidence Index, RBC Consumer Conference, Deutsche Bank Tech Conference, Barclays Financial Services Conference, UBS Paper Conference, Goldman Sachs Communacopia Conference, Roth Capital Partners Media/Software Event, CSFB Chemical Conference, Keybanc Basic Materials Conference, ThinkEquity Growth Conference, (SLE) analyst day, (MXM) analyst meeting, (CFL) analyst day, (MT) investor day, (BAX) investor conference, (DBD) investment conference and the (BHP) analyst meeting could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by mining and technology shares in the region. I expect US equities to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is higher into the final hour on gains in my Technology longs, Financial longs and Medical longs. I have not traded today, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is positive as the advance/decline line is higher, most sectors are rising and volume is about average. Investor anxiety is high. Today’s overall market action is bullish. The VIX is falling 1.93% and is high at 23.40. The ISE Sentiment Index is around average at 146.0 and the total put/call is slightly below average at .74. Finally, the NYSE Arms has been running very high most of the day, hitting 1.69 at its intraday peak, and is currently 1.56. The Euro Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index is falling 1.79% today to 74.33 basis points. This index is down from its record March 10th high of 208.75. The North American Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index is falling 3.37% to 106.71 basis points. This index is also well below its Dec. 5th record high of 285.99. The TED spread is rising 4.55% to 17 basis points. The TED spread is now down 446 basis points since its all-time high of 463 basis points on October 10th. The 2-year swap spread is rising 5.88% to 34.94 basis points. The Libor-OIS spread is dropping 8.63% to 11 basis points. The 10-year TIPS spread, a good gauge of inflation expectations, is rising 6 basis points to 1.84%, which is down 83 basis points since July 7th. The 3-month T-Bill is yielding .12%, which is down 1 basis point today. The MS Cyclical Index is outperforming substantially again today, rising 1.7%.Airline, Gaming, Homebuilding, Bank, Steel and Coal shares are especially strong, rising 2.25%+. Retail shares are underperforming today on BBY’s report and a “sell the news” reaction to today’s better-than-expected August Retail Sales report.These shares have had a big run and I suspect this is just another pause before another surge higher commences.Redbook weekly retail sales fell -2.1% this week versus a -2.4% decline the prior week and a -5.7% decline during the week of July 21.This meaningful improvement should continue through year-end on pent-up demand and better sentiment.Airlines, arguably the most hated group in the market, are on a tear.The XAL has risen 21% in 9 days, which is even more impressive considering oil at $71/bbl. and rising H1N1 fears.(XLF) is reversing higher again today and (IYR) continues to trade very well, breaking higher from its recent range.I expect (XLF) to follow over the coming days.I expect to see overseas shares rise again tonight/tomorrow morning. Nikkei futures indicate an +113 open in Japan and DAX futures indicate an +12 open in Germany tomorrow. I expect US stocks to trade modestly higher into the close from current levels on diminishing economic fear, short-covering, less financial sector pessimism, technical buying and investment manager performance anxiety.
- Chipmakers such as Intel Corp.(INTC) and Samsung Electronics will boost production this year as demand for electronics rebounds, according to research firm Gartner Inc.Capital expenditures by semi makers will bottom out at $22.9 billion in 2009, a drop of 48% from last year.The market will then grow until 2012, according to Gartner’s forecasts.