BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is higher into the final hour on gains in my Technology longs, Medical longs, Financial longs, Retail longs, Biotech longs and Defense longs. I have not traded today, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is positive as the advance/decline line is higher, almost every sector is rising and volume is slightly below average. Investor anxiety is very high. Today’s overall market action is very bullish. The VIX is falling -1.77% and is high at 21.05. The ISE Sentiment Index is below average at 125.0 and the total put/call is above average at .89. Finally, the NYSE Arms has been running above average most of the day, hitting 1.48 at its intraday peak, and is currently 1.07. The Euro Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index is falling -2.37% today to 65.0 basis points. This index is down from its record March 10th high of 208.75. The North American Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index is falling -2.74% to 96.32 basis points. This index is also well below its Dec. 5th record high of 285.99. The TED spread is falling 1 basis point to 22 basis points. The TED spread is now down 442 basis points since its all-time high of 463 basis points on October 10th. The 2-year swap spread is falling -5.12% to 37.06 basis points. The Libor-OIS spread is down -1 basis point to 11 basis points. The 10-year TIPS spread, a good gauge of inflation expectations, is rising 6 basis points to 2.04%, which is down 61 basis points since July 7th. The 3-month T-Bill is yielding .06%, which is unch. today.Economically-sensitive shares are outperforming again today, with the MS Cyclical Index jumping 2.1%.REIT, Hospital, Steel and Coal shares are especially strong, rising 2%+. Copper is on the verge of a technical breakout.On the negative side, Banks and Homebuilders are notably weak. One of my longs, (AAPL), reports after the close today.I suspect the shares may initially weaken after the report.However, I expect any weakness to be relatively mild and short-lived.I wouldn’t be surprised to see the stock higher by the end of trading tomorrow.I still see significant upside in the shares long-term.With the DJIA poised to close convincingly above 10,000, I expect further near-term gains, after a brief pause, on short-covering, technical buying, momentum chasing, performance anxiety, earnings optimism, less financial sector pessimism and better economic data.Nikkei futures indicate an +119 open in Japan and DAX futures indicate an unch. open in Germany tomorrow. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher into the close from current levels on diminishing economic fear, short-covering, takeover speculation, investment manager performance anxiety, lower long-term rates and earnings optimism.
- Yields on bonds backed by hotel, shopping-center and skyscraper loans narrowed relative to benchmarks as U.S. programs help drive demand even as late payments soar on the underlying commercial real estate debt, according to Barclays Capital. The gap, or spread, on top-ranked commercial-mortgage backed securities tightened 0.15 percentage point relative to benchmark swap rates to 6.25 percentage points for the week ended Oct. 15, Barclays data show. That compares with 10.15 percentage points in March, according to Barclays. Demand for the bonds swelled as rising stocks buoyed investor sentiment and government programs helped further prop up prices of the debt.
- Major financial institutions that are too big to fail should be broken up, Greenlight Capital manager David Einhorn said Monday during a conference in New York. The hedge fund manager, who warned about Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.'s(LEHMQ) frailty before it collapsed, criticized the financial-reform proposals of Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner. He argued they provide a government back-stop to the largest institutions, entrenching them further. No institution should be too big to fail, Einhorn explained. "The real solution is to break up anything that fails that test," he said. "Lehman shouldn't have existed in any size to threaten the financial system." The same applies to Citigroup Inc. (C), Bear Stearns, American International Group Inc. (AIG) and "dozens" of other firms, Einhorn said. Separately, Einhorn said his hedge-fund firm is betting on the possibility of a major currency collapse and a surge in interest rates, citing ballooning government deficits in some of the world's most developed countries.
- Flow of terrorist recruits increasing.Westerners attending camps in Pakistan and Afghanistan despite successful U.S. strikes.Midway through a propaganda video released last month by a group calling itself the German Taliban, a surprise guest made an appearance: a cleanshaven, muscular gunman sporting the alias Abu Ibrahim the American. The gunman did not speak but wore military fatigues and waved his rifle as subtitles identified him as an American. The video contained a stream of threats against Germany if it did not withdraw its troops from the NATO-led mission in Afghanistan. Although the American's part in the film lasted only a few seconds, it has alarmed German and U.S. intelligence officials, who are still puzzling over his background, his real identity and how he became involved with the terrorist group.
- As the loss of chiefs, fighters, money and ideological appeal weakens al-Qaida, the network's ability to attack in the West has diminished in recent years, according to Western anti-terrorism officials. The complex debate over U.S. policy in South Asia encompasses differing proposals for tactics, troop levels and strategies for contending with the Taliban. But the Obama administration says it is all driven by a top priority: defeating al-Qaida. That enemy is on the defensive. Al-Qaida has failed to strike the United States during the past eight years. The network last spilled blood in the West in 2005 when the London transit bombings killed 52 people. Global cooperation and aggressive infiltration by Western spy services have thwarted subsequent plots and sharpened a campaign of drone strikes that has killed veteran bosses. "Some pretty experienced individuals have been taken out of the equation," a senior British anti-terrorism official, who requested anonymity because of the sensitive topic, said in a recent interview.
SeekingAlpha:
- Goldman Sachs(GS):‘A Hybrid Hedge Fund and Bookie’ Many of us didn’t like it — we thought banks like Goldman should have been recapitalized the right way, by wiping out shareholders and forcing subordinated creditors to eat their share of losses. But that ship has sailed. We socialized the risk while privatizing the profit because we were told we had no other choice: The government had to guarantee the biggest banks’ liabilities because they were too unstable to survive bankruptcy or FDIC receivership. If that’s true, why haven’t we seen any substantial reforms to reduce systemic risk? Congress is kicking around new resolution authority to help resolve failed systemically-important banks. But the goal should be reducing systemic risk to begin with. Yet serious reform of the derivatives market — something that would reduce its size significantly — is nowhere on the radar.
- Middle East families and sovereign wealth funds are slashing their investments and demanding more favorable terms from private equity funds following the financial crisis. The region has been a significant source of capital for the private equity industry in recent years but many investors are still suffering from the collapse in liquidity that followed the collapse of Lehman Brothers. One private equity executive who recently finished raising a buy-out fund said: "The one area where we have not raised any money is the Middle East. The region shut down 12 months ago." Private bankers, who are important middlemen for wealthy private investors, said many of their regional clients were loath to make fresh commitments.
Novaya Gazeta:
- Former Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev said the decision of three political parties to walk out of Russia’s parliament last week to protest alleged vote-rigging in Oct. 11 regional votes showed that elections had become a “mockery of the people.”“If such disciplined, cautious peoples so close to regime resorted to this sort of maneuver, it means that trust in this political institution, elections, has been completely lost,” Gorbachev said.
Khaleej Tiomes Online: - DUBAI - Iran is holding out for big discounts on its purchases of gasoline for November, offering 25-30 percent less than market prices even though the risk of U.S. sanctions means sellers expect a premium, traders said. Industry sources said on Monday it was unrealistic for Tehran to seek the kind of low prices that might be negotiated by a favored buyer like Saudi Arabia. Tehran, which cut its October gasoline purchases by about 20 percent, compared with the previous month, to 102,120 barrels per day (bpd) or about 12 cargoes of gasoline, does not appear to have done any deals yet for next month, traders said. “It’s ridiculous what they are asking for, it’s almost as if they are not interested in buying...but I get the sense they are struggling with the premiums attached to cargoes sold into Iran,” said a Middle East based trader.