Tuesday, December 21, 2010

Bull Radar


Style Outperformer:

  • Small-Cap Value (+.71%)
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Coal +1.83% 2) Banks +1.55% 3) Steel +1.28%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • FMBI, BCS, BBL, SNP, LAD, CMED, RRGB, MATK, INCY, AMED, ADBE, MAPP, MYRG, MOTR, SPRD, BOOM, QLIK, ASMI, SINA, HANS, ATNI, MKTX, UBSI, FWLT, EWBC, BIDU, JBL, RCL and CYD
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) RY 2) STLD 3) ADBE 4) DAL 5) JBL
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) OSIS 2) SWY 3) HRS 4) FWLT 5) MYRG

Tuesday Watch


Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

  • China Needs to Prepare for Long-Term Inflation Fight, CCTV Says. China needs to prepare for a long- term fight against inflation, state broadcaster China Central Television reported today, citing Peng Sen, vice chairman of the National Development and Reform Commission, as saying today at a meeting on prices. The effect of government policies on prices is just beginning to take hold and won’t be long lasting, CCTV cited Peng as saying. Consumer price gains have been caused by factors including the supply of goods, global commodity prices and excessive liquidity, CCTV cited Peng as saying. The root causes of price gains has not yet been resolved, Peng was cited as saying.
  • Oil Imports to China Set to Slow in 2011 as Economy Cools: Energy Markets. China’s appetite for oil, which helped drive crude to the highest level since October 2008, may ease next year as the government takes steps to tackle inflation and work on expanding refineries slows. China’s inflation accelerated to the fastest pace in 28 months in November, fueling speculation the government will raise interest rates next year. Higher borrowing costs may reduce the country’s sway over global commodity markets, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
  • Scottish Investors Say No to Spanish Bonds Even at 5.5%: Euro Credit. Spanish bond yields, approaching their highest level in eight years, still don’t offer enough reward to tempt fund managers 1,000 miles north in Scotland. The yield on 10-year Spanish debt rose 1.52 percentage points to 5.52 percent in the past two months as investors speculated Spain might follow Greece and Ireland in needing a rescue package to avoid default. “You should ask if any of us would buy Spanish government bonds yielding five-and-a-half percent,” Bill Dinning, head of strategy at Aegon Asset Management, said during a discussion among three investors overseeing 360 billion pounds ($557 billion) at Bloomberg’s Edinburgh office. “Probably not.” “It’s too risky,” said Andrew Milligan, who holds the same post at Standard Life Investments. Spanish debt prices slumped last week after borrowing costs rose at the government’s final bond sale of the year. The 10- year yield climbed more in November than in any month since at least 1993, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Moody’s said on Dec. 15 it might cut the nation’s Aa1 credit rating, citing “substantial funding requirements, not only for the sovereign but also for the regional governments and the banks.” The cost of insuring Spanish government debt climbed to a three-week high yesterday, with five-year contracts protecting $10 million of debt up $12,000 to $344,000 a year. “Spreads remain high by historical standards, emphasizing the need for Spain to strengthen financial-market confidence in the sustainability of government finances,” the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said yesterday. “If the high sovereign spreads persist, funding conditions in the private sector could be affected.”
  • CFTC Swap Plan May Save Billions in Bank Revenue. A revised proposal by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission for how private swaps can be traded will prevent dealers from losing billions of dollars in revenue, according to Moody’s Investors Service analyst Alexander Yavorsky. The commission rewrote a prior attempt at the rule last week after Chairman Gary Gensler pulled the proposal from consideration at a Dec. 9 meeting. The original rule would have required dealers to provide executable prices to all market users of credit-default, interest-rate and other swaps prior to any trade being done on an electronic system that mimics how futures exchanges operate. The revised rule proposal, passed by the CFTC in a 4-to-1 vote on Dec. 16, allows banks to show negotiable prices on a request-for-quote, or RFQ, system that can be limited to a select number of trading partners. This more flexible model will limit competition among swap-execution facilities and allow volumes to grow, New York-based Yavorsky said in a report today. “The RFQ model will reduce pressure on market-making revenues - billions of dollars per dealer,” Yavorsky said. A key question is how much the per-trade profit reduction is offset by an increase in the number of trades, he said.
  • BofA(BAC), Lenders Face Possible N.J. Foreclosure Freeze. Bank of America Corp., JPMorgan Chase & Co.(JPM) and four other mortgage lenders and service providers face a possible suspension of foreclosures in New Jersey by Jan. 19, under a judge’s order. The action, announced today by New Jersey Supreme Court Chief Justice Stuart Rabner, also covers Citigroup Inc.’s mortgage unit, Ally Financial Inc.’s GMAC mortgage unit, OneWest Bank and Wells Fargo & Co. The lenders were implicated in “robo-signing,” the submission of hundreds or thousands of foreclosure claims without personal knowledge of their contents, Rabner said.
  • Sugar Rises to 29-Year High on Shortfall; Cocoa Gains on Ivorian Dispute. Raw sugar rose to a 29-year high in New York on speculation that supplies from India and Brazil, the world’s largest growers, won’t be enough to meet demand for a third straight year.
  • Cotton Jumps Daily Limit to Record as Demand Outlook Improves. Cotton prices jumped the most allowed by ICE Futures U.S., rising to a record on speculation that demand will rise as the U.S. economy strengthens. “It appears everybody wants to own commodities, and cotton is involved in that,” said Sid Love, the president of Joe Kropf & Sid Love Consulting Services LLC in Overland Park, Kansas. Prices are up “on a combination of people trying to do business and speculative buying,” he said.
  • Warner, Chambliss to Push Debate on Debt in Next Congress. Senators Mark Warner and Saxby Chambliss will seek to put the U.S. debt atop the agenda in next year’s Congress by offering measures to cut government spending, reduce popular tax breaks and trim entitlement programs. Warner, a Virginia Democrat, and Chambliss, a Georgia Republican, have been working over the past six months to court a group of 25 senators from both sides of the political aisle in a bid to gather support for their bill, Warner said today in an interview.
  • FCC's Copps Says He Won't Block Net-Neutrality Rules. Michael Copps, a member of the Federal Communications Commission, said he won’t vote against rules for Internet-service providers to be considered by the agency tomorrow. “While I cannot vote wholeheartedly to approve the item, I will not block it by voting against it,” Copps, a Democrat, said in an e-mailed statement today. Copps, who had argued for more stringent rules, said he would vote to “concur so that we may move forward.” Copps, 70, is part of the three-Democrat majority at the FCC, and has been considered a swing vote since the agency’s two Republicans have said they oppose the rules.
  • Gold Climbs as European Sovereign-Debt Concerns Drive Record Fund Holdings. Gold advanced for a third day as European sovereign-debt concerns increased demand for the precious metal as an investment haven, with holdings in exchange-traded products climbing to an all-time high. Immediate-delivery bullion rose 0.2 percent to $1,387.28 an ounce at 1:12 p.m. in Melbourne. The price gained as much as 0.9 percent yesterday after dropping 0.8 percent last week. Gold assets in exchange-traded products, or ETPs, reached a record 2,114.6 metric tons as of yesterday, according to data collected by Bloomberg from 10 providers. Holdings have gained 18 percent this year.
  • China Money Rate Jumps to 2-Year High After Banks' Reserve Ratios Raised. China’s money-market rate rose to the highest level in over two years, reflecting reduced availability of cash after lenders were ordered to set aside more capital as reserves. The amount of cash major banks must set aside as reserves rose by half a percentage point to 18.5 percent from yesterday, the sixth increase this year. The central bank will inject up to 27 billion yuan ($4 billion) of funds through open-market operations this week, about half of the average 56 billion yuan pumped in during each of the last five weeks, said Frances Cheung, a senior strategist at Credit Agricole CIB. “Market liquidity is tightening after the reserve hike,” said Hong Kong-based Cheung. “The cash injection for this week won’t be a lot. Some banks are also more reluctant to lend cash as we approach year-end; come early next year there may be some loosening.” The seven-day repurchase rate, which measures lending costs between banks, jumped 54 basis points to 4.075 percent, according to a daily fixing published at 11 a.m. by the National Interbank Funding Center in Shanghai. That’s the highest level since June 2008.

Wall Street Journal:
  • SEC Probes Hurd Exit From H-P(HPQ). Federal regulators are investigating Mark Hurd's departure from Hewlett-Packard Co., in a broad inquiry that includes claims the former chief executive shared inside information, people familiar with the matter said.
  • Odds Skew Against Investors in Bets on Strangers' Lives. In the summer of 2005, a firm called Life Partners Holdings Inc. said Marvin Aslett, an Idaho rancher 79 years old, had two to four years to live. It didn't make this estimate on his behalf but for its customers. The company arranges to buy life-insurance policies from people like Mr. Aslett and sells fractional interests to investors, who collect the death benefits when the insured people die. The investors in a $2 million policy on Mr. Aslett's life would have made a tidy return had he died as projected. But more than five years later, the rancher, now 84, says he runs on a treadmill, lifts weights and chops wood, adding that all of his grandparents lived well into their 90s. "I'm healthy as a horse," he says. "There's going to be a lot of disappointed investors."
  • U.S. Mulls New Push to Shape Bank Pay. U.S. regulators are considering whether to require large financial firms to hold onto a chunk of executive pay to discourage the excessive risk-taking that contributed to the financial crisis, according to people familiar with the situation. Giant companies such as Bank of America Corp., J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley that are considered critical to the U.S. economy, could be forced to award half or more of their executives' pay in the form stock or other deferred compensation, instead of up-front cash. The discussions by the Federal Reserve, Securities and Exchange Commission and other federal banking agencies are the result of a provision in the Dodd-Frank financial-overhaul law that instructs regulators to prohibit any bonus plan that "encourages inappropriate risks" at financial firms with more than $1 billion in assets.
  • Funding Deal Snags Health Law. A Senate deal to fund the federal government until early March doesn't include money to enact the health-care overhaul or stepped up regulation of Wall Street, boosting Republican efforts to curb key elements of President Barack Obama's domestic agenda.
  • Blacksonte(BX) Raises Fund of $15 Billion for Buyouts. Blackstone Group is finalizing a new $15 billion fund, the largest fund for buyout deals since the financial crisis erupted and one of the largest on record. The big sum is the latest sign of improving interest in private equity and of the power of some well-known firms to attract investors, despite some high-profile losses in the industry over the last few years. The fund will be the sixth largest on record, based on information from data tracker Preqin.
  • H-P(HPQ) Amps Up Cisco(CSCO) Sales Rivalry, Offering Big Discounts on Switches. Hewlett-Packard Co. and Cisco Systems Inc. were once close-knit partners, filling complementary niches in the hardware companies use to run their businesses. Just how much that situation has changed became clearer Monday. H-P, a computing giant that has branched into networking, disclosed a sales promotion giving customers 20% off the list price of certain switching systems if they shift away from comparable gear sold by networking rival Cisco, which has branched into server computers. "Cisco has never seen this level of competition before," boasted Marius Haas, H-P's senior vice president and general manager for networking.
CNBC:
MarketWatch:
Business Insider:
Zero Hedge:
IBD:
Politico:
  • Boehner Referees GOP Spending Fight. Republican leaders are already refereeing a fight between tight-fisted budget hawks and business-as-usual spenders at the Appropriations Committee.
Reuters:
  • Hedge Funds May Skirt Direct Fed Scrutiny: Source. The Federal Reserve does not believe any one hedge fund can topple the financial system and therefore the private pools of capital may escape direct supervision by the central bank, an industry source familiar with the Fed's position said. The newly created Financial Stability Oversight Council, which includes the Treasury secretary and 14 U.S. supervisors, including the Fed, are in the early stages of determining which non-bank firms pose a threat to the financial system. Firms labeled as "systemically important" will be subject to rigorous oversight by the Fed but will also have access to the central bank's emergency lending facilities. The indication that hedge funds might escape this designation is sure to send a huge sigh of relief through the $1.7 trillion industry, which has long avoided the tighter controls imposed on mutual funds, for example.
  • Darden(DRI) Shares Down on Red Lobster Results. Darden Restaurants Inc's shares fell 3 percent after a promotional slip-up led to disappointing sales at its Red Lobster chain. The company, which also owns Olive Garden and LongHorn Steakhouse, narrowed its full-year target for same-restaurant sales growth at its "Big Three" brands to 2 percent, versus a prior target of growth between 2 percent and 3 percent.
  • North Korea Backs Down Over South Korean Drill. North Korea stepped back from confrontation over "reckless" military drills by the South on Monday and reportedly issued a new offer on nuclear inspections, drawing a cautious response from Seoul and Washington.
  • Michael Dell Snaps Up $100 Million of Company's Stock. Dell Inc founder and chief executive Michael Dell is spending $100 million to snap up more of his company's stock. Dell acquired 7.37 million of the company's shares for $13.57 each on Friday, according to filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on Monday.
  • U.S. Expects Foreclosure Probe Results Next Month. An Obama administration task force examining allegations of fraud in the mortgage foreclosure process will deliver its findings next month, two top officials said on Monday.
Telegraph:
  • Pimco Says 'Untenable' Policies Will Lead to Eurozone Break-Up. Pimco, the world's largest bond fund, has called on Greece, Ireland and Portugal to step outside the eurozone temporarily and restructure their debts unless the currency bloc agrees to a radical change of course. Andrew Bosomworth, head of Pimco's portfolio management in Europe, said current policies are untenable in the absence of fiscal union and will lead to a break-up of the euro. "Greece, Ireland and Portugal cannot get back on their feet without either their own currency or large transfer payments," he told German newspaper Die Welt. Mr Bosomworth said EU leaders were too quick to congratulate themselves on saving the euro last week with a deal for a permanent bail-out fund from 2013. "The euro crisis is not over by a long shot. Market tensions will continue into 2011. The mechanism comes far too late," he said. The bond fund argues that the EU strategy of forcing heavily indebted countries to undergo draconian fiscal austerity without offsetting stimulus is unworkable. The austerity policies are stifling the growth needed to stabilise debt levels. Pimco also gave warning that the bond vigilantes have lost faith in the policy and are trying to liquidate their holdings of peripheral EMU faster than the European Central Bank (ECB) can buy the debt, causing a relentless rise in yields, and a vicious circle. The withering comments from the world's top investor in EMU sovereign debt is a blow for Portugal and Spain. Both nations are hoping bond spreads will start to narrow before they face a funding crunch in the first quarter of next year.
Evening Recommendations
Citigroup:
  • Reiterated Buy on (STZ), target $25.
RBC Capital:
  • Rated (STI) Outperform, target $31.
Night Trading
  • Asian equity indices are +.50% to +1.0% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 106.0 unch.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 106.75 +1.75 basis points.
  • S&P 500 futures +.31%
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.28%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
  • (KMX)/.34
  • (CCL)/.32
  • (CMC)/.01
  • (CAG)/.45
  • (CTAS)/.38
  • (FINL)/.05
  • (HOV)/-.66
  • (NAV)/.60
  • (NKE)/.88
  • (RHT)/.20
Economic Releases
  • None of note
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The weekly retail sales reports and the weekly ABC consumer confidence reading could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by real estate and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to maintain gains into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Monday, December 20, 2010

Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Less Economic Fear, Short-Covering, Seasonal Strength, Buyout Speculation


Broad Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Light
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • VIX 15.90 -1.30%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 125.0 -14.97%
  • Total Put/Call .72 -6.49%
  • NYSE Arms .58 -29.22%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 86.26 -1.03%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 159.77 bps +10.83%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 186.67 bps +3.84%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 210.99 bps -.06%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 23.0 -1 bp
  • TED Spread 20.0 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .10% unch.
  • Yield Curve 274.0 +3 bps
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $169.60/Metric Tonne +.30%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index +17.40 -.4 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.28% unch.
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei Futures: Indicating +89 open in Japan
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +30 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my Tech, Ag and Retail long positions
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 75% Net Long
BOTTOM LINE: Today's overall market action is mildly bullish as the S&P 500 trades slightly higher despite recent stock gains, rising eurozone sovereign debt angst, Korean peninsula concerns and weakness in some overseas equity markets. On the positive side, Gaming, Education, REIT, Homebuilding and Coal shares are especially strong, rising more than 1.0%. (IYR) has outperformed throughout the day. Lumber is rising another +1.8% and copper is rebounding another +1.02%. The 10-year yield is stable. On the negative side, Construction, Steel, Defense and Road & Rail shares are relatively weak today, falling more than .5%. The Greece sovereign cds is climbing +2.84% to 997.50 bps, the Spain sovereign cds is climbing +2.51% to 340.11 bps, the Russia sovereign cds is gaining +2.22% to 147.90 bps and the China sovereign cds is surging +7.9% to 73.2 bps. The Euro Financial Sector CDS Index is soaring to the highest level since late June and the Western Europe Sovereign CDS Index is very near its record high set last month, which is also a big negative. Short/intermediate-term gauges of investor sentiment remain overly bullish. US stocks remain extremely resilient, which is a large positive. I am surprised that equity investors aren't yet more concerned about what is going on in Europe. Seasonality, diminishing attacks from Washington on business and better US economic data are trumping euro concerns so far. If European debt fears calm early next year, then stocks should make another meaningful push higher. However, we are likely now at the point that if the euro situation continues to deteriorate it will lead to a significant adverse impact on equities in 1Q. I expect US stocks to trade modestly lower into the close from current levels on China inflation worries, profit-taking, more shorting and rising eurozone debt fears.

Today's Headlines


Bloomberg:

  • ECB Expresses 'Serious Concerns' About Irish Proposals to Stabilize Banks. The European Central Bank said it has “serious concerns” that Ireland’s new banking legislation may threaten the central bank’s independence and its ability to run liquidity operations. “The ECB has serious concerns that the draft law is insufficiently legally certain,” the central bank said in a position paper dated Dec. 17, published on its website. The Irish law should not hurt the ability of euro-region monetary authorities “to enforce their rights including, without limitation, the enforcement of security over any eligible collateral posted by any relevant institution.”
  • Euro Falls a Second Day on Concern Region's Crisis to Spread; Dollar Gains. The euro weakened on speculation some European nations will struggle to raise funds amid the region’s debt crisis after rating companies downgraded the creditworthiness of Ireland and considered additional cuts. The single currency depreciated versus 15 of 16 major counterparts, falling to two-week lows against the dollar and the yen as Moody’s Investors Service downgraded two Dublin-based lenders to junk status. Costs to insure French government debt rose to a record, indicating the nation may be at risk of losing its top rating.
  • Chinese Iron-Ore Imports May Fall in 2011 on Price, Arctic Says. Martin Sommerseth Jaer and Erik Nikolai Stavseth, analysts with Arctic Securities ASA in Oslo, comment on Chinese iron-ore imports in an e-mailed note today. China is the biggest iron-ore consumer and more of the steelmaking material is carried at sea than any other dry-bulk good. “Going into 2011, several Chinese sources are claiming that Chinese iron-ore imports will decline as prices rise too fast. In July 2009, 69 percent of all iron-ore purchases were imports, whereas the percentage had dropped to 40 percent in July 2010 -- due to the rapid escalation in iron-ore prices.”
  • The Baltic Dry Index, a measure of commodity-shipping costs, fell to its lowest level in more than four months as ship deliveries and the end of the grain season sent hire-rates lower. The index declined 44 points, or 2.2%, to 1,955 points today. That's the lowest since July 29 and the biggest drop in the current 10-session slide. Rents for panamaxes, the second-biggest vessels tracked by the gauge, led the way with a 4.1% decline to $15,621 a day, the lowest price since May 2009.
  • U.S. Commercial Property Rises for Second Consecutive Month, Moody's Says. U.S. commercial property prices rose 1.3 percent in October from the previous month, the second consecutive monthly gain, Moody’s Investors Service said. The Moody’s/REAL Commercial Property Price Index climbed 3.2 percent from a year earlier, Moody’s said in a report today.
  • Commodities Rally Falters in Currency Futures as History Shows Dollar Wins. Speculators betting the commodities rally will continue into a third year are being confronted by currency investors wagering the dollar will strengthen in 2011. If history is any guide, the foreign-exchange market will win. Traders have almost tripled their net-long positions in 20 raw-material futures the past five months to the highest level in at least four years, driving a 26 percent gain in the Thomson Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index, government data show. Contracts on the dollar strengthening against the euro have climbed to a three-month high. The U.S. currency moved in the opposite direction of commodity prices 18 of the past 22 quarters, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
  • First-Time Solar Producers May Imperil India's Push for Renewable Energy. India’s first solar auction, planned to boost clean energy in the world’s fourth-biggest polluter, may risk failure after winners were selected without experience or proof that they can keep projects afloat earning low margins. A woolen yarn maker, an animation company and an industrial pipes supplier with no experience building power plants were among 37 winners of the government auction announced Dec. 13. The lowest bidders quoted prices that mean they may struggle to earn an attractive profit, said Bloomberg New Energy Finance analyst Bharat Bhushan.
  • Municipal Budget Cuts May Reduce U.S. GDP, Goldman Sachs Says. Lower state and local spending, which accounts for 12 percent of the national economy, may reduce U.S. gross domestic product growth by about half a percentage point next year, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said. Municipal budgets will likely increase by no more than 1 percent in 2011 after adjusting for inflation as local governments receive less state aid and home-price declines put a drag on property-tax collections, the bank said in a note to clients. That is about 2 percentage points less than average. “State and local governments will continue to face substantial budget pressures for the time being,” wrote Andrew Tilton, a New York-based economist, in the Dec. 17 note.
  • AmEx Falls as Credit-Card Fees May Be 'Next Target'. American Express Co. fell the most in the Dow Jones Industrial Average after Stifel Nicolaus & Co. said proposed federal caps on debit-card fees may be followed by similar cuts for credit cards. The shares dropped $1.93, or 4.4 percent, the most in more than two months, to $42.08 at 2:06 p.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading.

Wall Street Journal:
  • Hynix Chief Says Chip Price Plunge to Hit Earnings. Hynix Semiconductor Inc.'s chief executive expects computer-memory chip prices to continue to fall early next year and hit the company's fourth-quarter result, as the short-term outlook for the global chip market remains grim. "Chip prices remained strong until the first half of this year, but they dropped sharply, especially during the fourth quarter," Chief Executive O.C. Kwon said in a recent interview.
  • Online Ads Pull Ahead of Newspapers. This year, for the first time, advertisers will have spent more on Internet ads than on print newspaper ads, according to new estimates from eMarketer. The digital-marketing research firm says U.S. spending on online ads will hit $25.8 billion, surpassing the $22.8 billion spent on print ads in newspapers.
  • S&P Could Revise One-Third of Muni Note Ratings Lower. Standard & Poor's Ratings Services is seeking comment on proposed revisions to rating a form of municipal note that allows state and local borrowers to temporarily raise short-term funds backed by a promise to repay with a future bond issue.
  • Chris Dodd's Exit Interview.
CNBC:
Business Insider:
Zero Hedge:
  • The Bennie Who Stole Christmas. (graphs) Ben Bernanke is a highly educated PhD from Princeton who has never worked a day in the real world since he graduated from college in 1975. His entire life has been spent in the ivory tower of academia surrounded by models and theories that work perfectly in the comfort of his office. After building his reputation as an “expert” on the Great Depression by studying it and reaching the wrong conclusions, he came down from his ivory tower in 2002 to join an organization that has systematically destroyed the value of the US currency, thereby undermining the well being of the once vibrant middle class.
New York Times:
Washington Examiner:
Risk.net:
  • Credit Default Risk of Germany Reaches New High. Debt protection costs rise across eurozone peripherals. The cost of insuring against a German government default on its debt has reached a new high for the year, with credit default swaps (CDS) rising from 56 basis points at end of trading on Friday, December 17 to 57bp at 1.00pm London time today. Greece saw its CDSs fall from 989bp to 952bp, but otherwise CDSs on peripheral eurozone debt rose over the weekend. Five-year CDSs on Portugal increased from 469bp on Friday to 479bp today. The cost of insuring against an Irish default rose marginally from 581bp to 583bp over the same period. Meanwhile CDSs on Italian sovereign debt widened from 204bp to 212bp. The cost of default insurance against Spanish debt increased from 333bp on Friday to 345bp today, while CDSs on Hungary crept up from 375bp to 378bp, according to data provider Markit. Today, Moody's announced its decision to downgrade the ratings of several Irish financial institutions, including Allied Irish Bank and Bank of Ireland. This follows its downgrade of Irish government bond ratings from Aa2 to Baa1 on December 17.
Rasmussen Reports:
  • For First Time Ever, Most Voters Think Health Care Repeal Likely. A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 52% of Likely U.S. Voters think it is at least somewhat likely that the health care plan will be repealed. Thirty-three percent (33%) view repeal as unlikely. Those figures include 16% who believe repeal is Very Likely and 5% who believe it is Not at All Likely. Fifty-five percent (55%) of voters now favor repeal of the health care law, including 40% who Strongly Favor it. Forty-one percent (41%) are opposed to repeal, with 31% Strongly Opposed. Support for repeal has ranged from 50% to 63% in weekly tracking since the bill became law in late March.
Reuters:
  • Hedgebay Debuts Tool to Value Fund "Side Pockets". Hedgebay, a secondary market for hedge fund stakes, has launched a tool to help investors value the billions of dollars worth of illiquid assets still held in opaque "side pocket" portfolios left over from the credit crisis. An estimated 10 percent of funds in the $1.8 trillion hedge fund industry still have so-called side pockets, according to Hedgebay co-founder Elias Tueta, referring to separate portfolios created by hedge funds during the crisis to house hard-to-shift assets.
  • ECB Wants Liquidity Included in New Stress Tests. The European Central Bank is backing the European Commission to include a liquidity criterion in the new round of euro zone bank stress tests next year, but they face opposition from Germany, EU sources said. EU leaders agreed on a new round of stress tests last week as part of Europe's efforts to win back confidence of financial markets, but detailed criteria of the tests are to be agreed only in January. The tests themselves are to start in February.
  • Heavy Snow, Cold Disrupt Travel Across North Europe.
  • Euro Dips Below 200-day Moving Average Vs. Dollar.
  • Raytheon(RTN) to Pay $490 Million for Applied Signal(APSG). U.S. defense contractor Raytheon Co (RTN.N) said it would pay $490 million to acquire cybersecurity firm Applied Signal Technology Inc (APSG.O), which makes equipment that militaries and governments use to detect threats.

Bear Radar


Style Underperformer:

  • Mid-Cap Growth (-.07%)
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Construction -.67% 2) Road & Rail -.52% 3) Steel -.32%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
  • AXP, BA, BMO, TQNT, AGM, VLTR, ERJ, PTNR, NRGY, CLMT, EHTH, MCRS, MBLX, HIBB, SINA, BIDU, ARII, RIMM, AKAM, BMO, MTR and AMN
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) RSX 2) PXP 3) LSI 4) NKE 5) YUM
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) NE 2) ATW 3) CHDX 4) BEN 5) SWN

Bull Radar


Style Outperformer:

  • Small-Cap Value (+.20%)
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Coal +1.92% 2) Homebuilding +1.31% 3) Gaming +1.29%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • DRE, MDVN, PEGA, ITMN, APSG, IDCC, MOTR, BEC and CHK
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) MTG 2) LVLT 3) RSX 4) IDCC 5) EK
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) NTAP 2) ACN 3) RDC 4) HAL 5) LLL