Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth (-.31%)

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Education -1.09% 2) Gaming -.71% 3) Oil Tankers -.68%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

• GNI, VCI and DSX
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) CCE 2) MCP 3) AKS 4) DNDN 5) GM
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) DNBK 2) DIOD 3) CALM 4) NST 5) RCRC
  

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Value (+.09%)

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Gold +1.94% 2) Coal +.57% 3) REITs +.30%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• HL, TIE, SSL, EPAY, PBR, SEED, ZINC, ATNI, ASMI, PMTI, VOCS, TPL, CPY and HIT
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) CCE 2) PFE 3) INTU 4) CTXS 5) JCP
  

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) KBR 2) AIG 3) NOC 4) AEP 5) VMI
  

Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:

• S&P Bond Upgrades Top Downgrades as Cash Swells. More U.S. companies had their credit ratings boosted by Standard & Poor’s this year than saw them cut for the first time since 1997 as borrowers increased profits and stockpiled cash. Ford Motor Co., the world’s most profitable automaker, and San Jose, California-based EBay Inc. were upgraded by S&P along with 756 others, compared with 722 downgrades, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. In 2009, S&P slashed corporate debt grades more than three times as often as it raised them, the data show. Companies held $1.17 trillion of cash, the most on record compared with the value of their assets, as the U.S. recovered from the worst recession in more than 70 years. Rising confidence in the ability of borrowers to meet debt payments led investors to push relative yields down to the lowest since 2007. “Corporate fundamentals are about as strong as we’ve ever seen them,” said Edward Marrinan, a credit strategist at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc in Stamford, Connecticut. The creditworthiness of borrowers will continue to rise even as they are tempted to accelerate mergers and acquisitions and repurchase stock, according to Marrinan. S&P boosted grades for non-financial companies 1.5 times as often as it cut them, while Moody’s Investors Service issued 1.9 upgrades across those sectors for every downgrade, the companies said.
• Hedge Funds Bet Natural Gas Will Decline in Warm New Year: Energy Markets. Hedge funds raised bearish natural gas bets by the most since October on forecasts that higher- than-normal temperatures in the first weeks of the New Year will reduce demand for the heating fuel. The funds and other large speculators cut net-long positions, or wagers on rising prices, by 35 percent in the seven days ended Dec. 21, according to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s weekly Commitments of Traders report. It was the largest drop since Oct. 12.
• Gold Advances for a Third Day as Declining Dollar Boosts Investment Appeal. Gold advanced for a third day on speculation that the dollar’s retreat may boost demand for the precious metal as an alternative investment. Immediate-delivery gold added as much as 0.2 percent to $1,387.10 an ounce and was at $1,385.75 at 10:19 a.m. in Tokyo.

Wall Street Journal:

• Blizzard Strands Travelers Across U.S. Airline flight cancellations mounted into the thousands Monday as fallout from a powerful East Coast blizzard rippled across the country.
• As Irelanad Flails, Europe Lurches Across the Rubicon.
• 10 Trends in Mobile Technology.
• China's Real Estate Frenzy. Rising property prices and a torrid pace of lending are signals of an inflationary bubble.

CNBC:

• Japan Industrial Output Rises For First Time in 6 Months.

Business Insider:

• The Next 5 Apple(AAPL) Gadgets to Waste Time Obsessing About.
• Deutsche Bank: The Rally in Profits Could Send U.S. Companies on a Hiring Spree. (graph)
• Volatility Alert: Crude is Rising, But Not Because of Demand.
• As Hot Money Rushes into China, The Smart Money is Getting the Hell Out.
  

New York Times:

• Retail Sales Rebound, Beating Forecasts. Shoppers spent more money this holiday season than even before the recession, according to preliminary retail data released on Monday.

Forbes:

• Beijing Takes on the Vatican.

insidermonkey:

• Ken Griffin's Citadel Returned 10% in 2010; Loeb's Is Triple That. Ken Griffin’s Citadel returned about 10 percent in 2010, according to a person who has seen the numbers but wasn’t authorized to share them publicly. Citadel’s flagship Wellington and Kensington funds gained around 10 percent, but still below their high water mark achieved at the end of 2007. Citadel lost 55% in 2008. To reverse that, it needed to have returned more than 122%. It gained 62% in 2009. After this year’s 10%, Citadel still needs to deliver another 25 percent return to surpass its high water mark.

engadget:

• Apple(AAPL) Confirms It's Sold One Million New Apple TVs. Apple said last week that it expected its new Apple TV to cross the one million mark in sales before Christmas, and it's now quietly confirmed that it's managed to do just that.

AppleInsider:

• Apple(AAPL) Targeting iPad at Corporate Buyers with Verizon(VZ). Apple is working with carrier business teams at Verizon Wireless to "drive adoption of iPad in enterprise accounts," following an initial push aimed at consumers. While the majority of the company's iPad marketing is focused on consumer uses, Apple is now actively selling its new tablet to business customers.

The Orage Country Register:

• Global Warming Expanations Made Up as They Go Along. You may have heard the fascinating explanation for the cold weather sweeping the globe. Yeah, some say that global warming is making the earth cold. There’s, of course, better explanations, but don’t expect to hear them from the global warming alarmists.

Politico:

• President Obama Under Pressure to Deliver on Climate. Jan. 2 isn’t just your ordinary Sunday. It’s the day the Obama administration will officially start regulating greenhouse gas emissions, and critics have issued dire predictions of economic destruction. With all the fiery rhetoric about how damaging the regulations could be, the White House is under pressure to fulfill its pledge to tackle climate change while avoiding the appearance that it’s hindering job growth.

Rasmussen Reports:

• Support for Health Care Repeal at 60%. For the second time this month, 60% of Likely Voters at least somewhat favor repeal of the national health care law, while the number who expect health care costs to increase is at its highest level since August. The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey shows that 49% Strongly Favor repeal of the plan. Thirty-eight percent (38%) oppose the law’s repeal, including 29% who Strongly Oppose repeal.

USA Today:

• SUV Trade-In Values Plunge as Gas Prices Keep Climbing. The run-up in gas prices past $3 a gallon has been running down the value of used SUVs, causing prices to plummet below levels listed in well-known buying guides. And it is forcing dealers to tread carefully with customers when they offer less than expected for their SUV trade-in. The average used SUV was selling for nearly 20% below the price listed last month in used car pricing publications such as Kelley Blue Book, CNW Marketing reports.

Reuters:

• NYSE Short Interest Falls in Early December.
• Nasdaq Short Interest Falls in Early December.
• Speculators Trim US Dollar Shorts - CFTC.

Financial Times:

• Non-US Banks Gain From Fed Crisis Fund. Some of the world’s strongest banks have profited from an emergency credit facility set up by the US Federal Reserve to shore up confidence in the global financial system, according to a Financial Times analysis of data released by the Fed. More than half of lending under the Fed’s term auction facility – the largest of its crisis programmes – went to foreign banks. Details of the varied uses to which they put it may add to political criticism of the Fed.

21st Century Business Herald:

• China central bank adviser Li Daokui said more adjustments in China's deposit rate, lending rate, and reserve requirement ratio are "very necessary" in 2011, especially in the first half, citing an interview.
• China's consumer price increases may exceed 5% in 2011, citing Liu Yuhui, a researcher with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.
  

Oriental Morning Post:

• About 40% of the additional dollars issued by the Federal Reserve through its purchases of U.S. Treasuries, or quantitative easing, may have flown into China, increasing inflationary pressure for the nation, citing Zheng Xinli, deputy director of China Center for International Economic Exchanges.

Evening Recommendations
Citigroup:

• Rated (GM) Buy, target $45.

Night Trading

• Asian equity indices are -.50% to +.75% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 105.0 +1.0 basis point.
  
• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 103.5 -.5 basis point.
  
• S&P 500 futures +.07%
  
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.13%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• None of note
  

Economic Releases
9:00 am EST

• The S&P/CS 20 City MoM% SA for October is estimated to fall -.6% versus a -.8% decline in September.
  

10:00 am EST

• Consumer Confidence for December is estimated to rise to 56.4 versus a reading of 54.1 in November.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The $35 Billion 5-Year Treasury Notes Auction, weekly retail sales reports, weekly ABC consumer confidence reading and the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index could also impact trading today.
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by financial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Less Financial Sector Pessimism, Seasonal Strength, Short-Covering, Technical Buying

Broad Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  
• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  
• Volume: Light
  
• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• VIX 17.88 +8.56%
  
• ISE Sentiment Index 121.0 unch.
  
• Total Put/Call .94 +4.44%
  
• NYSE Arms 1.10 -31.56%
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 86.0 +.55%
  
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 152.54 bps +2.01%
  
• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 196.17 bps -.84%
  
• Emerging Market CDS Index 206.10 unch.
  
• 2-Year Swap Spread 22.0 -3 bps
  
• TED Spread 18.0 +1 bp
  

Economic Gauges:

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .12% -1 bp
  
• Yield Curve 268.0 -5 bps
  
• China Import Iron Ore Spot $170.70/Metric Tonne unch.
  
• Citi US Economic Surprise Index +11.90 -2.4 points
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.29% -3 bps
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei Futures: Indicating +5 open in Japan
• DAX Futures: Indicating +21 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my Biotech, Tech and Ag long positions
  
• Disclosed Trades: None
  
• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

BOTTOM LINE: Today's overall market action is bullish as the S&P 500 trades slightly higher despite recent stock gains, China inflation worries and weakness in most overseas equities. On the positive side, REIT, Homebuilding, Bank and Disk Drive shares are especially strong, rising more than 1.0%. Small-caps are outperforming. (XLF)/(IYR) are also trading very well again today. Copper is climbing +.67% despite the Chinese rate hike. Lumber is also rising +1.91%. The 10-year yield is falling -4 bps to 3.35%. On the negative side, Education, Oil Service and Oil Tanker shares are under pressure, falling more than 1.0%. The Belgium sovereign cds is climbing +2.02% to 220.83 bps. The Euro Financial Sector CDS Index remains at the highest level since mid-June and the Western Europe Sovereign CDS Index remains very near its record high set last month, which is also a big negative. The broad market continues to display exceptional resiliency as negatives are ignored. I continue to believe another short-term spike higher in equities is a distinct possibility. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher into the close from current levels on seasonal strength, less economic fear, short-covering, technical buying, buyout speculation and investment manager performance angst.

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth (-.07%)

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Oil Service -1.32% 2) Education -.89% 3) Oil Tankers -.85%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

• LOGI, TSLA, ALIM, CALM, MOTR, HRB, CCH and ENI
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) TOT 2) DRYS 3) DTV 4) EK 5) GOLD
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) RIG 2) DF 3) FDP 4) TSLA 5) TCBI
  

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Value (-.05%)

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Banks +.68% 2) Homebuilders +.68% 3) REITs +.49%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• AIG, SWIR, AGM, MA, ELON, TPCG, BBOX, KIRK, ITMN, STU, AM, YPF, MHO, TOD and GNI
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) ACAS 2) PBR 3) ABC 4) ITW 5) CSX
  

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) SNE 2) MRK 3) SCHW 4) KEM 5) AAPL