Qaddafi's Grip on Power Weakens on Loss of Territory. Libyan leader Muammar Qaddafi’s world was shrinking yesterday as a close adviser abandoned him, opponents consolidated their control of the country’s oil-rich east, and Switzerland froze some of his assets. The leader responded by reinforcing his defenses in and around the capital, Tripoli, with tanks and mercenaries. “It’s a massacre in there,” Egyptian Mohamed Yehia said, describing recent violence after fleeing his home in the eastern coastal city of al-Bayda. Forces still loyal to the Libyan dictator moved against cities near Tripoli, and more than 100 people were killed in Az-Zawiyah, a town west of the capital, Al Jazeera reported.
Chavez Says Qaddafi Faces Civil War Amid Speculation on Asylum. Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez said Libya is bracing for civil war, his first comments on the unrest that follow speculation he may offer Libyan leader Muammar Qaddafi asylum. “Long live Libya and its independence,” Chavez said today in a post on his Twitter account, which came after comments from his Foreign Minister Nicolas Maduro on Libya before the National Assembly. “Qaddafi is facing a civil war.”
LinkedIn Blocked in China After 'Jasmine' Pro-Democracy Postings. LinkedIn Corp., operator of the largest networking site for professionals, became inaccessible in China after a user posted comments that Tunisia’s Jasmine Revolution should spread to the Asian country. The blockage of the service "appears to be part of a broader effort in China going on right now, involving other sites as well," Hani Durzy, a spokesman for Mountain View, California-based LinkedIn, said in an e-mail. Since 2009, the world’s largest Internet market by users has shut out sites such as those operated by Facebook Inc. and Twitter Inc. that don’t comply with Chinese rules to self censor information on politically sensitive subjects. A LinkedIn user identified as “Jasmine Z” last week set up a discussion group to post opinions on whether the revolutions that brought down the leaders of Tunisia and Egypt should be brought to China.
Investors Stretch for Yield Amid 'Collapsing' CMBS Spreads. Buyers are snapping up newly issued bonds tied to real estate, driving yield-starved investors toward riskier debt sold during the lending boom. “Collapsing new issue spreads have helped to spur further tightening in legacy securities” as the market is “on track for a strong resurgence” this year, Morgan Stanley analysts led by Richard Parkus said in a report today. Banks have arranged about $5 billion in commercial- mortgage-backed bond sales this month, and a $1.5 billion offering from JPMorgan Chase & Co. is currently being marketed, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Spreads have tightened “dramatically” with each successive deal, creating more demand for older bonds, according to New York-based Morgan Stanley. “The problem with new issue is it’s scarce,” Parkus said in a telephone interview. “There are just not enough bonds, which means investors are left looking for additional bonds in the legacy universe.” Legacy securities are those sold before the credit market seized up in 2008, when underwriting standards were looser and as property values soared.
Russia's Terrorists Threaten Olympics as Focus Moves to Sochi. Islamic militants in southern Russia, inspired by uprisings across the Arab world, are changing tactics and attacking targets closer to Sochi in a bid to derail the 2014 Winter Olympics. The killing of Muscovites and bombing of a ski lift at a resort in Kabardino-Balkaria, a region between Chechnya and Sochi, last week is part of “new terror campaign” against Russian rule designed to elicit maximum media coverage, said Grigory Shvedov, chief editor of Caucasian Knot, a Moscow-based news and analysis group that tracks the situation in the North and South Caucasus.
U.S. Arrests 100 People in Nationwide Sweep Against Mexican Drug Cartels. U.S. authorities arrested 100 people and seized more than $4 million in a nationwide sweep against Mexican drug cartels sparked by the killing of a U.S. immigration agent last week, Drug Enforcement Administration officials said.
Brown Says California Faces $25 Billion in Budget Cuts Without Tax Vote. California Governor Jerry Brown pledged to cut $25 billion from an $85 billion spending plan to close the state’s budget gap if lawmakers block a special election to allow voters to extend temporary tax increases. If lawmakers don’t approve the special election, Brown said he’d hold up the budget for as long as it takes to eliminate the $25 billion deficit through spending cuts. “It’s very fundamental, whether you vote the taxes or you vote the cuts,” said Brown, a 72-year-old Democrat who was governor from 1975 to 1983.
Boeing(BA) Defeats EADS for $35 Billion Air Force Tanker Program. Boeing Co., the sole supplier of aerial refueling tankers to the U.S. Air Force since 1948, beat European Aeronautic, Defence & Space Co. for a $35 billion program to build 179 new tankers, the Pentagon said today. It was the Chicago-based company’s third try at the contract since Congress and the Air Force first proposed the tanker replacement program in late 2001. “Boeing was the clear winner,” Deputy Defense Secretary William Lynn said at a Pentagon news conference. “This competition favored no one, except the taxpayer and the war fighter.”
AIG(AIG) Says Risk of Losses Has Increased on $46.6 Billion Muni-Bond Portfolio. American International Group Inc., the bailed-out insurer, said it faces increased risk of losses on its $46.6 billion municipal bond portfolio and that defaults could pressure the company’s liquidity. “Because of the budget deficits that most states and many municipalities are continuing to incur in the current economic environment, the risks associated with this portfolio have increased,” New York-based AIG said today in its annual report to the Securities and Exchange Commission. AIG said that “several” issuers of the bonds it holds have been downgraded, amid budget pressures. As of Dec. 31, the company had more than $700 million of state general-obligation bonds from California, which has the lowest Standard & Poor’s credit rating of any state. It also held more than $200 million in the bonds from Illinois.
Wall Street Journal:
Libya Rebels Tighten Noose. Rebels menaced Col. Moammar Gadhafi's stronghold from all sides Thursday, as insurgent commanders said they have sent troops for an offensive against Tripoli and residents of the capital prepared their first mass demonstration in days on Friday. Just 30 miles west of Col. Gadhafi's shrinking base of power, antiregime forces battled for the oil-industry town of Al-Zawiya. On Thursday evening, opposition forces gained control of Misrata, a coastal city 130 miles east of Tripoli. In Benghazi, the country's second-largest city and the hub of eastern Libya, a group of army colonels who recently defected said they are plotting the end their former commander's 42-year reign, which began to crumble last week as Libyans joined the antiauthoritarian protests roiling the Arab world. "We have a plan to bring down Tripoli," Col. Tareq Saad Hussein, one of seven former colonels who have taken charge of rebel forces in Benghazi, said in an interview. "We will not stop until we liberate the whole country."
Libya Power Void Raises Terror Fears. It's unlikely al Qaeda is to blame for the uprising in Libya, as embattled strongman Moammar Gadhafi asserts—but the country is home to a young cadre of Islamist extremists, many of whom fought against U.S. forces in Iraq and Afghanistan. As anti-government forces take over the eastern part of Libya, concern is growing that extremists from that region could take advantage of the government's disintegration to morph into a wider terrorist threat.
Pressures Mount to Resume Drilling. Interior Secretary Ken Salazar plans to meet with oil industry executives in Houston Friday to assess the industry's readiness to handle a major offshore oil spill, amid growing pressure from congressional Republicans and a federal judge to resume deep-water drilling in the Gulf of Mexico. The recent jump in world oil prices and U.S. gasoline prices following unrest in Libya has spurred renewed calls from many Republicans and Gulf Coast Democrats in Congress to allow more domestic production. One House committee is scheduled to hold hearings on drilling policy next month.
Publishers Expand E-Textbook Offerings for Classroom. In a sign that tablet computers are becoming increasingly mainstream, schools are beginning to incorporate the devices into the classroom, leading publishers to strike deals to expand their e-textbook offerings.
Business Insider:
Did Goldman Sachs(GS) Secretly Write Some Democratic Propaganda And Disguise It as Research? A Goldman Sachs research report warning that austerity measures and a possible budget shut down would be a drag to growth is being seen as a covert piece of Democratic propaganda by some on the right. The report, by Goldman economist Alec Phillips, was first surfaced yesterday by ABC, which published a few key paragraphs. See if you can spot the propaganda.
Hugh Hendry's Awesome New Presentation On How And Why He's Shorting China. Hugh Hendry spoke about why he's shorting China today at the Grant Interest Rate Observer conference today. In the following presentation, he explains his trade in 20 charts that are of course, bursting with eccentric personality, just like he is.
ObamaCare Is Starting To Bleed Insurers Dry. In an industry that already suffers low profit margins, mandates are driving insurers from the health insurance sector altogether.
First Solar(FSLR) Weakens Sales Forecast, Stock Drops. U.S. solar company First Solar Inc lowered the top end of its 2011 sales forecast and said it cut prices in anticipation of solar subsidy cutbacks that could hamper demand in Europe, and its stock fell 3.8 percent after hours.
Offshore Drillers Eye Brazil Boost for Deepwater. Leading offshore drilling contractors expect deepwater demand to improve this year as an impending contracting move by Petrobras (PETR4.SA) is likely to prompt other oil executives to secure rigs while they can.
Salesforce.com(CRM) Beats Street, Shares Jump. Cloud-based software maker Salesforce.com Inc (CRM.N) announced stronger-than-expected quarterly results and an upbeat sales forecast for the current quarter, sending its shares up 7.4 percent.
Deckers Outdoor(DECK) Q4 Beats on Strong UGG Sales. Deckers Outdoor Corp reported a better-than-expected quarterly profit for the ninth straight quarter at least, helped by strong demand for its UGG boots, driving its shares up 7 percent in extended trading.
Financial Times:
Sovereigns Turn to Pre-Crisis Financial Wizardry. Warren Buffett, one of the world’s most respected investors, labelled them “weapons of mass destruction”. In the wake of the financial crisis, various policymakers and regulators chimed in to demonise derivatives, along with structured finance and hedge funds, as causes of the turmoil. But in recent months, these tools have been increasingly embraced by countries to help them out of crisis.
Fears Over CFTC Derivatives Rule. Leading US exchanges are gravely concerned about proposed rules that could hamper the launch of new derivatives products – a key strategy in the current round of exchange mergers. The issue revolves around a rule proposed by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission that 85 per cent of annual trading in a futures contract or swap must occur on an exchange, or what is called a Designated Contract Market.
4Q Revised GDP is estimated to rise +3.3% versus a prior estimate of a +3.2% rise.
4Q Revised Personal Consumption is estimated to rise +4.2% versus a prior estimate of a +4.4% gain.
4Q Revised GDP Price Index is estimated to rise +.3% versus a prior estimate of a +.3% gain.
4Q Revised Core PCE is estimated to rise +.4% versus a prior estimate of a +.4% gain.
9:55 am EST
Final Univ. of Mich. Consumer Confidence for February is estimated to rise to 75.4 versus a prior estimate of 75.1.
Upcoming Splits
(ETN) 2-for-1
Other Potential Market Movers
The Fed's Lacker speaking, Fed's Yellen speaking, (ETN) analyst meeting, (IMGN) investment community meeting and the (TXN) international conference could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by technology and retail shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.
North American Investment Grade CDS Index 86.06 +.88%
European Financial Sector CDS Index 131.66 bps +.83%
Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 178.33 bps +.47%
Emerging Market CDS Index 231.29 +.09%
2-Year Swap Spread 18.0 +1 bp
TED Spread 19.0 -1 bp
Economic Gauges:
3-Month T-Bill Yield .12% +1 bp
Yield Curve 271.0 -3 bps
China Import Iron Ore Spot $184.90/Metric Tonne -.43%
Citi US Economic Surprise Index +77.10 -.1 point
10-Year TIPS Spread 2.43% +2 bps
Overseas Futures:
Nikkei Futures: Indicating -12 open in Japan
DAX Futures: Indicating +5 open in Germany
Portfolio:
Higher: On gains in my Technology, Medical, Biotech, Retail longs and emerging market shorts
Disclosed Trades: Covered all of my (IWM)/(QQQQ) hedges and some of my (EEM) short
Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long
BOTTOM LINE: Today's overall market action is bullish as the S&P 500 is reversing higher despite Mideast Unrest, rising eurozone debt angst and US housing concerns. On the positive side, Airline, Road & Rail, Education, Homebuilding, Construction, HMO, Hospital, Wireless, Networking, Disk Drive, Semi, Software, Internet, Steel, Alt Energy and Defense shares are especially strong, rising more than 1.0%. Small-cap shares are outperforming. As well, transport and tech shares are relatively strong. Oil and gold have had significant downside reversals on unconfirmed news. The UBS-Bloomberg Spot Ag Index is also down -.55%. Copper is rising +1.48%. The 10-year yield is falling -3 bps to 3.45%. The US Muni CDS Index is falling -2.23% to 169.25 bps. The AAII % Bulls fell to 36.63 this week, while the % Bears rose to 36.14, which is also a big positive. On the negative side, Oil Service and Oil Tanker shares are under pressure, falling more than 1.0%. Cyclicals are underperforming again and (XLF)/(IYR) are relatively weak. Lumber is declining another -3.15% and has broken down again technically. The Saudi sovereign cds is rising +1.31% to 141.79 bps and the Israeli sovereign cds is rising +2.02% to 176.63 bps. Moreover, the Spain sovereign cds is rising +2.95% to 271.83 bps, the Belgium sovereign cds is climbing +2.92% to 181.80 bps and the Italy sovereign cds is gaining +3.62% to 191.33 bps. Investor complacency regarding the situation in the Mideast still seems too high, however the technical reversal lower in oil after it repeatedly failed to hold $100/bbl. is noteworthy. If oil follows through to the downside tonight and in the morning I would expect to see further equity strength. One of my longs, (SXCI), is surging 6% today on volume after earnings. I still see substantial upside to the shares over the longer-run. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher into the close from current levels on lower energy prices, short-covering, bargain-hunting and lower long-term rates.
Qaddafi Urges End to Violence as Foes Increase Control in East. Libya’s Muammar Qaddafi, who has lost control of much of the country’s oil-rich east, appealed to citizens to end violence as his forces stepped up a crackdown on opponents and more than 100 people were reportedly shot dead. Qaddafi blamed the uprising against his 41-year rule on “drugged kids” and al-Qaeda, speaking by telephone on state television today for the first time since a Feb. 22 speech in which he vowed to fight “until his last drop of blood.” He said he regretted the deaths during the unrest. “You want to change the government -- you can do it any day through the revolutionary committees,” Qaddafi said, referring to his own state structures. He said protesters had no demands of their own and were echoing those of Osama bin Laden.
Gasoline, Heating Oil Reach 29-Month Highs on Libya Revolt. Gasoline and heating oil surged to 29-month highs on concern that Libya’s political uprising threatens fuel supplies and that unrest will spread across North Africa and the Middle East. Futures rose as the turmoil in Africa’s third-biggest oil producer sent crude traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange above $100, with Brent reaching $119.79 in London. Foreign governments began discussing intervention as opponents of Libyan leader Muammar Qaddafi consolidated control over cities in the oil-rich east while he clamped down on Tripoli. “We’re still looking at the biggest threat to oil supplies in my lifetime,” said Phil Flynn, vice president of research at PFGBest in Chicago. “That’s what’s keeping us up. This is all about what’s going on in the Middle East” and North Africa. Gasoline for March delivery gained 5.24 cents, or 1.9 percent, to $2.7673 a gallon at 12:30 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices touched $2.856, the highest level for the front-month contract since Sept. 12, 2008. Futures have risen 11 percent since anti-government protests began Feb. 15 in Libya, a member of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. Gasoline is the day’s biggest gainer, followed by crude oil and heating oil, on the Thomson Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of 19 raw materials.
Sales of New U.S. Homes Fell More Than Forecast in January. Purchases of new houses in the U.S. fell more than forecast in January, reflecting declines in the West and South that indicate a California tax credit and bad weather may have played a role. Sales declined 13 percent to a 284,000 annual pace, figures from the Commerce Department showed today in Washington. The median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News projected a decrease to a 305,000 rate. Demand dropped 37 percent in the West and 13 percent in the South.
Saudi Man Arrested in Texas on Weapons Charge May Have Been Targeting Bush. A 20-year-old Saudi man was arrested in Texas on charges he purchased chemicals to make an explosive device and researched potential U.S. targets, including the Dallas address of former President George W. Bush, according to the Justice Department. Khalid Ali-M Aldawsari, was arrested yesterday by FBI agents on a charge of attempted use of a weapon of mass destruction, the Justice Department said in a statement today. Aldawsari allegedly wrote in a journal that he was inspired by al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden and that he was planning for jihad, according to court papers filed by the government.
India's Sensex Falls Most Since November 2009 on Inflation, Oil Concerns. India’s benchmark stock index tumbled the most in more than 15 months as food-price gains accelerated and surging oil prices stoked concern inflation will lead to higher interest rates. Tata Motors Ltd., the nation’s biggest truck-maker, sank 7.8 percent, the most in 22 months. Larsen & Toubro Ltd., the largest engineering company, slid 5.3 percent. An index of wholesale farm-product prices rose 11.49 percent in the week ended Feb. 12 from a year earlier, after climbing 11.05 percent the previous week, the commerce ministry said today. Oil surged to the highest in 30 months in London as Libya’s violent uprising cut supplies from Africa’s third-biggest producer. The Bombay Stock Exchange Sensitive Index, or Sensex, slid 545.92, or 3 percent, to 17,632.41 at the 3:30 p.m. close in Mumbai, the biggest drop since Nov. 3, 2009.
Greek, Irish Bonds Fall as Crude Oil Gain Damps Demand for Riskier Assets. Greece and Ireland led declines in the bonds of the euro region’s most-indebted nations as escalating violence in Libya pushed the price of oil to a 30- month high, sapping demand for assets perceived to be risky. Greek 10-year yields climbed 11 basis points, or 0.11 percentage point, to 11.86 percent at 4:24 p.m. in London, after reaching 11.89 percent, the highest level since Jan. 11. The Irish 10-year yield surged 17 basis points to 9.32 percent. Portuguese 10-year yields added four basis points to 7.50 percent, while Italian 10-year yields gained one basis point to 4.84 percent.
OPEC to Cut Exports on Declining Fuel Demand, Oil Movements Says. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will ship less crude this month because of declining demand for winter fuels and as refineries halt for maintenance, according to tanker-tracker Oil Movements. Loadings will slip to 23.88 million barrels a day in the four weeks to March 12, down 1.3 percent from 24.19 million a day in the equivalent period to Feb. 12, the tanker-tracker said today in a report. In the four weeks to March 12 exports from Middle Eastern producers, including non-OPEC members Oman and Yemen, will fall by 1.7 percent to 17.81 million barrels a day, Oil Movements’ data show.
Wheat Resumes Plunge as Unrest Across North Africa Drives Away Speculators. Wheat extended a collapse and corn and soybeans also fell as traders speculated that a jump in energy costs caused by protests across North Africa and the Middle East will curb growth and demand for grains. Riots already ousted leaders in Egypt, the world’s biggest wheat importer, and in Tunisia, and opposition groups have seized control of eastern cities in Libya. While wheat traded in Chicago dropped 10 percent in the past four sessions, crude oil traded in New York jumped 15 percent.
Fed May Need to Taper $600 Billion in Purchases, Bullard Says. The Federal Reserve’s planned $600 billion in Treasury purchases helped improve the U.S. economic outlook and the policy debate may turn to whether to reduce the program scheduled through June, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said. “The natural debate now is whether to complete the program, or to taper off to a somewhat lower level of asset purchases,” Bullard said in the text of a speech today in Bowling Green, Kentucky.
Wall Street Journal:
U.S. Fears Tripoli May Deploy Gas As Chaos Mounts.The government of Col. Moammar Gadhafi hasn't destroyed significant stockpiles of mustard gas and other chemical-weapons agents, raising fears in Washington about what could happen to them—and whether they may be used—as Libya slides further into chaos. Tripoli also maintains control of aging Scud B missiles, U.S. officials said, as well as 1,000 metric tons of uranium yellowcake and vast amounts of conventional weapons that Col. Gadhafi has channeled in the past to militants operating in countries like Sudan and Chad. Current and former U.S. officials said in interviews that Washington's counterproliferation operations against Libya over the past decade have scored gains, in particular the dismantling of Tripoli's nascent nuclear-weapons program and its Scud C missile stockpiles. But the level of instability in Libya, and Col. Gadhafi's history of brutality, continues to make the U.S. focus on the arms and chemical agents that remain, they said.
Gadhafi Blames al Qaeda; Rebels Promise Offensive. Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi accused his opponents of being under the sway of al Qaeda Thursday, as rebels controlling large swathes of the country promised an offensive against the capital, Tripoli. Speaking by telephone to state television, the increasingly isolated leader directed his 23-minute address to citizens of al-Zawiya, an industrial town just 30 miles west of Tripoli where gun battles raged Thursday. "What is this farce? You in al-Zawiya turn to bin Laden?" he said. "He brainwashed your sons."
Saudis Stand Ready to Fill Oil Gap. Saudi Arabia said it is in "active talks" with European oil companies to make up the shortfall in Libyan oil production that has helped push oil prices towards $120 a barrel and raised fears for the global economic recovery. A senior Saudi petroleum official said the kingdom is in talks with refiners on "whether they need extra oil, and if so, what quality and quantity and on what kind of time scale." He added: "We can supply it immediately."
Issa Subpoenas Obama Administration. House Oversight Chairman Darrell Issa (R., Calif.) has issued his first subpoenas to the Obama administration, seeking testimony from two Department of Homeland Security employees about their handling of freedom-of-information requests, according to committee Democrats who objected to the move.
Gasparino: Nasdaq's Bob Greifeld Feeling "Incredible Shareholder Pressure". FOX BusinessNetwork Senior Correspondent, Charlie Gasparino, is reporting this morning that NASDAQ's (NASDAQ: NDAQ) Chief, Bob Greifeld, is feeling “incredible shareholder pressure” to do something about the merger of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE: NXY) and Deutchse Boerse. This includes exploring a hostile bid for the NYSE.
Libyan Opposition Reportedly Seizes Key Western City. Opponents of Moammar Kadafi are said to have taken control of Misurata, Libya's third largest city and where Kadafi traditionally has maintained strong tribal support.
Lobbyists: White House Sends Meetings Off-Site to Hide Them. Caught between their boss’ anti-lobbyist rhetoric and the reality of governing, President Barack Obama’s aides often steer meetings with lobbyists to a complex just off the White House grounds — and several of the lobbyists involved say they believe the choice of venue is no accident. It allows the Obama administration to keep these lobbyist meetings shielded from public view — and out of Secret Service logs kept on visitors to the White House and later released to the public.
Reuters:
Libya Placed Billions of Dollars at U.S. Banks - WikiLeaks. Libya's secretive sovereign wealth fund has $32 billion in cash with several U.S. banks each managing up to $500 million, and it has primary investments in London, a confidential diplomatic cable shows. The cable, obtained by WikiLeaks and revealing the details of a January meeting between the head of the Libyan Investment Authority (LIA) and the U.S. ambassador in Tripoli, comes as the United States and European governments explored the possibility of freezing assets belonging to the Libyan government.
Caixin Online:
China's Housing Inventory Valued at 75% of GDP. Beijing-based UBS economist Wang Tao singled out the country's property bubble as the largest macroeconomic risk in the coming few years. As the debate over the real estate bubble continues to simmer, some have estimated that China's housing inventory value could be as high as 350 percent of last year's GDP, similar to Japan's 20 years ago just before the property bubble burst.
Economic Observer:
About 58% of a total 447 coal power stations under China's five major power generation groups made losses by the end of October last year, citing China Electricity Council.