Wednesday, November 23, 2011

Wednesday Watch

Posted by Gary .....at 12:30 AM

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:
  • Euro Weakens Amid Signs Debt Crisis Is Weighing on Growth; Aussie Declines. The euro declined for the sixth time in eight days against the dollar before data that may add to signs that Europe’s debt crisis is damping economic growth. The 17-nation euro dropped versus the yen ahead of reports forecast to show that manufacturing in Germany and France, Europe’s two biggest economies, fell this month. The pound was 0.2 percent from a month low against the dollar before the Bank of England releases its November meeting minutes. The U.S. currency advanced against 15 of its 16 major peers as Asian stocks dropped. Australia’s dollar slid after a preliminary reading of a Chinese industrial output gauge declined. “The bias for the euro is that it falls,” said Imre Speizer, a strategist in Auckland at Westpac Banking Corp., Australia’s second-largest lender. “Overall the euro-zone economy is looking weak and trending weaker, and we’re expecting they’re going to recession sometime maybe next year.”
  • Hungary May Have to Blow to IMF Conditions to Access Financial Assistance. Hungary’s government may have to reverse its position on ruling out International Monetary Fund conditions in exchange for financial aid, according to Barclays Plc, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Capital Economics. Prime Minister Viktor Orban last week abandoned his policy of shunning the Washington-based lender, seeking help after a Standard & Poor’s threat to downgrade Hungary’s debt to junk sent the forint to a record low. He may have to do another reversal and scrap emergency taxes on some industries and ease the burden of a mortgage-repayment plan on banks, said Neil Shearing, an emerging-markets analyst at Capital Economics Ltd. The government has scrapped two debt sales and reduced the size of another eight auctions in the last three months as the euro region’s debt crisis deepened. The threat of market turmoil may force Orban to back down from insisting on an IMF agreement that won’t infringe on the country’s “economic sovereignty,” Barclays Capital economist Christian Keller said.
  • Mall Owner Sonae Sees Tough 2012 for Retail in Southern Europe. Sonae Sierra SGPS SA, the Portuguese mall owner that offered lower rents and other incentives to keep its southern European tenants this year, expects 2012 to be even tougher as the sovereign debt crisis roils economies using the euro. The European Commission cut its 2012 euro-region growth estimate by more than half this month and said the risk of recession is increasing. Retail sales at Sonae Sierra’s 21 Portuguese centers fell 8.4 percent in the first nine months from a year earlier and by 1.9 percent at its nine Spanish malls, less than the national averages in both countries, the CEO said last week at the MAPIC trade fair in Cannes, France.
  • Australia's Lower House Passes Gillard's Mining Tax as Greens Support Bill. Australia’s lower house of parliament passed legislation for a 30 percent tax on coal and iron-ore profits as independent lawmakers and the Greens Party backed Prime Minister Julia Gillard’s plan. The Minerals Resource Rent Tax Bill faces a vote next year in the upper-house Senate, where the Greens hold the balance of power, to become law. BHP Billiton Ltd. (BHP), Rio Tinto Group and other iron-ore and coal producers face paying about A$11 billion ($10.8 billion) in extra charges in the first three years of the tax. Australia’s iron ore shipments surged to a record A$6.3 billion in September as demand from China and India for raw materials helps power the Australian economy.
  • China Shunning Ships Shows $2.3 Billion Vale Mistake: Freight. The Vale Brasil, the biggest commodity ship ever built, was designed to carry iron ore to China from South America. After six months in operation, it hasn’t done that once. China’s refusal to accept the Brasil has derailed Vale SA’s push to control shipments to its biggest customer by building up a fleet of 35 ships, each almost as large as the Bank of America Tower in New York. Rio de Janeiro-based Vale, the world’s biggest iron ore miner, ships about 45 percent of sales to China, the largest consumer of the steelmaking ingredient. Vale’s plan, which includes buying 19 vessels for $2.3 billion, has spurred opposition from Chinese shipowners who say it will worsen overcapacity, slumping cargo rates and industrywide losses.
  • Bank Confidence Wanes After MF Global Failure: Credit Markets. Credit traders are punishing U.S. banks and brokers after wagers on European sovereign debt felled MF Global Holdings Ltd., as lender reliance on capital markets for funding is exposed by the region's crisis. The cost of protecting bonds from Morgan Stanley rose 47 percent this month and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. has climbed by 39 percent. Both are approaching levels reached in the first week of October that were the highest since the failure of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., according to data compiled by CMA and Bloomberg. Debt of New York-based Jefferies Group Inc. reached distressed levels last week. Credit-default swaps and bond yields are soaring even as banks seek to reassure investors that they're able to manage their sovereign-debt holdings. A gauge of banks' reluctance to lend to each other, the so-called Libor-OIS spread, is at the highest level since June 2009 as Italian and Spanish yields climb and the U.S. economy grew at a slower-than-estimated 2 percent annual rate in the third quarter. "On the heels of MF Global, the market has remained concerned about financials and the potential for a surprise," said David Brown, a money manager who helps oversee $82 billion of fixed-income assets at Neuberger Berman LLC in Chicago. The extra yield investors demand to hold the debt of banks has jumped 77 basis points this month to 391 basis points, or 3.91 percentage points, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch index data. That compares with the 39 basis points increase to 261 for investment-grade debt overall.
  • Corzine Called to Testify at House Hearing. Jon S. Corzine, the former U.S. senator and New Jersey governor who ran MF Global Holdings Ltd. (MF) until the firm filed bankruptcy last month, has been called to testify at a House hearing on the failure next month. Corzine, who was chairman and chief executive officer of the New York-based firm, will face questions “on the decisions and events leading to the collapse of MF Global” at a Dec. 15 hearing before the House Financial Services Oversight and Investigations panel, according to a statement released today. Corzine, who was co-chief executive officer of Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) before seeking public office as a Democrat, resigned from MF Global on Nov. 4 after the firm filed the eighth-largest bankruptcy in U.S. history after a wrong-way $6.3 billion trade on its own behalf on bonds of some of Europe’s most indebted nations.
  • Oil Drops After Gasoline Stockpiles Rise, Growth Trails Estimate in U.S. Oil dropped from a three-day high in New York after rising gasoline stockpiles and slower-than- estimated economic growth raised concern about U.S. demand. Futures slipped as much as 0.5 percent after the American Petroleum Institute said fuel supplies climbed 5.42 million barrels last week.
  • Big Fish Sells Subscriptions to Its Games on the iPad. Apple Inc. (AAPL) is letting a video-game company offer its titles by subscription on the iPad, expanding the role of a feature typically used by magazine and newspaper publishers. Big Fish Games, a Seattle-based game publisher, won approval from Apple to become the first to offer users access to dozens of titles for $6.99 a month. Until now, games have only been available one at a time, requiring users to download individual applications.
  • Retail Groups Sue Fed Over Debit Card Rules. The Federal Reserve was sued by retailer groups over new regulations governing so-called swipe fees, claiming the Fed disregarded the law when deciding how much banks can charge merchants for debit-card transactions. The groups, in a lawsuit filed today in U.S. District Court in Washington, said retail merchants will be “substantially harmed” by the fees the Fed set under the Durbin Amendment, a provision of the Dodd-Frank legislation passed last year. The rule went into effect on Oct. 1. “The Board’s final rule permits banks to recover significantly more costs than permitted by the plain language of the Durbin Amendment and deprives plaintiffs of the benefits of the statute’s anti-exclusivity provisions,” the retailers argued in their complaint.
  • Chavez Activates Price Law to End Capitalist Speculation. President Hugo Chavez stepped up his control of the Venezuelan economy today as a new price regulation law came into effect that allows his government to set price caps on as many as 15,000 goods. The cost of 18 products will immediately be frozen, including soap, toothpaste and diapers, Vice President Elias Jaua said. Transnational corporations such as Colgate-Palmolive Co. (CL), the world’s largest toothpaste maker, Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), HJ Heinz Co (HNZ) and Unilever Plc, will have to report their production costs to enable the government to set prices, Jaua said.
  • Ending Charity Tax Break Will Hurt Poor Most: Stephen L. Carter. Thanksgiving week marks the traditional start of the holiday season, when our thoughts should turn to those less fortunate than ourselves. Most charities aimed at helping others report their heaviest donations during the holidays, and not only because of the urgent reminders besieging us on every side. As the end of the year approaches, families measure out their remaining disposable income in order to decide how much to contribute during the great year-end giving binge. And one of the things most people take into account is the tax deductibility of their donations.
  • India's Rupee Slide Spurs Fastest BRIC Inflation. The Indian rupee’s slump to its weakest level since the era of floating exchange rates began four decades ago risks boosting the fastest inflation among BRIC nations and adds pressure to raise interest rates. The rupee slid to close at 52.32 per dollar in Mumbai yesterday, bringing its decline in the past four months to 15 percent, the biggest drop among 10 Asian currencies tracked by Bloomberg. The decline will have an “immediate impact” on inflation, Reserve Bank of India Deputy Governor Subir Gokarn said in Mumbai yesterday. A weaker exchange rate raises the cost of imported energy and other commodities, adding to price pressures in a nation already beset by transportation bottlenecks and power shortages. A sustained slide in the rupee may buck the RBI’s plan to keep borrowing costs unchanged in coming months, limiting its scope to respond to growth threats posed by Europe’s debt crisis. “The more the rupee drops, the more difficult it would be for the central bank to stay pat on rates,” said Arun Singh, Mumbai-based senior economist at Dun & Bradstreet Information Services India Pvt. “There will be pressure on the RBI to abandon its stance and do another hike.” India’s benchmark wholesale-price inflation was 9.73 percent in October. By comparison, consumer prices rose 7 percent in Brazil, 5.5 percent in China and 7.2 percent in Russia in the same month.
  • Citigroup(C), BofA(BAC) May Have to Pare Dividend Ambition on Fed Tests. Citigroup Inc. and Bank of America Corp. are among lenders that may have to temper plans to raise dividends and buy back stock next year as the Federal Reserve toughens capital tests for the biggest U.S. banks. The Fed imposed a tougher capital test on the 31 largest U.S. banks yesterday, releasing the criteria for measuring their wherewithal if the U.S. economy sours and major trading partners default on their debt. Lenders need to prove they have the capital to withstand a “severe” U.S. recession with 13 percent unemployment and an 8 percent decline in gross domestic product before they can increase dividends or repurchase shares. The more pessimistic scenario will damp banks' ambitions to return more capital to shareholders, whose holdings have been decimated. The KBW Bank Index of 24 U.S. lenders has plunged 31 percent this year and is down 70 percent from its all-time high in February 2007. “It's going to be very difficult for any of these companies to do any major buybacks into next year,” said Paul Miller, a former examiner for the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia and an analyst at FBR Capital Markets Corp. in Arlington, Virginia. Bank of America and Citigroup's “chances of upping a dividend or buying back any stock next year are almost zilch.”
Wall Street Journal:
  • Disaster Planning: Banks Ponder Euro-Zone Split. A key part of the world's foreign-exchange trading infrastructure is bracing itself for the possibility of a breakup of the euro zone, the latest sign investor concerns about the Continent's debt crisis are on the rise. CLS Bank International, which operates a platform in which banks settle most of their currency trades, is running "stress tests" to prepare for the possible dissolution of the euro, according to people familiar with the situation. Some of the 63 banks that co-own CLS are making similar plans.
  • Pressure on Merkel Amplifies. German Chancellor Angela Merkel faces growing calls to soften her resistance to a potentially powerful weapon in Europe's debt crisis: euro-zone bonds that would raise appeal for investors but make each euro member liable for the debts of the others in the currency club. Adding to the pressure is a market rout as investors flee nearly all euro-zone bonds other than German bunds. Spain on Tuesday was forced to pay a euro-era record 5.11% yield on three-month bills at an auction of treasury bills—more than double the rate it paid at an auction last month. In a further sign of strain, banks' borrowing from the European Central Bank soared to the highest level since 2009, the central bank said Tuesday. The ECB said it allotted €247.2 billion ($333.5 billion) in seven-day financing to banks. French bond yields also shot up in a sign that the debt crisis was continuing to spread to large, top-rated countries. Ms. Merkel on Tuesday stressed that joint debt issuance isn't the right response now. "The discussion of euro bonds in the midst of the crisis is inappropriate," she said. Germany has never categorically ruled out the joint issuance of bonds by the euro's 17 national governments, known as euro bonds. But Berlin insists that before euro members collectively raise financing on the open market, they must create rules that force each country to exercise fiscal discipline—or pay a heavy price. Many lawmakers in Ms. Merkel's ruling center-right coalition are deeply skeptical about joint euro-zone liability for debts, which they fear would reduce pressure for southern European countries to rein in government spending. "The moment we let up the pressure, those countries that have such problems will become complacent," German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble said Tuesday. In addition to being a hard sell to Germany's lawmakers and voters, euro bonds may require amending the country's constitution, requiring a broad consensus among political parties in the euro zone's biggest member.
  • Trust Says 'Old' GM(GM) Owes It Millions. An environmental trust created to oversee the cleanup of hazardous waste left behind at dozens of former General Motors sites says the "old" GM has failed to pay millions of dollars it promised as part of its bankruptcy case. The U.S. government orchestrated GM's 2009 restructuring, which transferred the company's most valuable assets to a newly created entity called General Motors Co. Left behind in Chapter 11 were the unwanted remnants of the auto maker's old business, including 89 former sites and plants.
  • Muddy Waters Web Site Hacked. Investors wanting to access the website of Muddy Waters, the short-seller that has garerned a lot of attention for bearish calls on companies operating in China, including Toronto-listed timber operator Sino-Forest and most recently Focus Media Holding(FMCN), might have to wait a while.
  • Egypt Heads for Showdown. Egypt's military leadership was on a collision course with newly energized protesters Tuesday, as its promise to hand over power to an elected president earlier than expected and other concessions fell flat with a growing crowd of demonstrators who have renewed their hold over the capital's Tahrir Square.
  • EU Banks Struggle to Lure Deposits. An intensifying battle for deposits among European banks is putting pressure on the Continent's banking system, threatening to deprive lenders of a key source of funding as the cost of attracting customers rises. Individuals and businesses have pulled billions of euros of deposits out of banks in financially shaky countries such as Spain and Italy in recent months, according to bank disclosures and analyst research. Several large Italian and Spanish banks recently reported double-digit percentage declines in deposits from corporate and other institutional clients, although their overall deposit levels fell more modestly.
  • Euro Zone Risks Doing Too Little Too Late. Germany's greatest fear is moral hazard. How can it be sure countries will stick with reforms once market pressure is relaxed? Replacing elected politicians with unelected technocrats can be only a short-term remedy. Both EC President José Manuel Barroso and European Council President Herman van Rompuy are preparing proposals to improve economic governance. But most ideas under discussion amount to tinkering with scrutiny of national budgets, not the full-blown fiscal and political union needed to credibly underpin euro bonds. Perhaps the intensity of the crisis will force dramatic political change in Brussels, as it has in member states. Perhaps governments will embrace radical transfers of sovereignty to avoid the cataclysm of a euro collapse. But the risk is that, as so often in the crisis, when politicians finally act, it may be too little, too late.
MarketWatch:
  • China Bank Report Warns of Bad Loans in 2012. CICC says banks should expect defaults in year-end credit crunch. China International Capital Corp. warned in a recent report that banks are likely to see an increasing number of loans go bad during the first half of 2012, due in part to the scarcity of credit available to small and medium enterprises. Based on a survey conducted by CICC in the cities of Hangzhou and Shaoxing in Zhejiang province, home to many SMEs, the report said that even though banks have loosened credit controls on SMEs, many SMEs may still suffer a credit crunch in the first quarter of next year.
  • U.S. Gasoline Demand Continues Slump Into Holidays. U.S. gasoline demand continues to sink heading into the year-end holidays as consumers still struggle with a stagnant economy and pump prices higher than they were last year. Retail fuel sales fell 4.5% year over year to finish the week ended Nov. 18 at 60.9 million barrels a day, according to MasterCard Spending Pulse's survey of retail gas stations.
Business Insider:
 Zero Hedge:
 IBD:
NY Times:
  • Despite a Rough Year, Hedge Funds Maintain Their Mystique. Hedge funds, the golden children of finance, are having a very rough year. For one, they are not making money the way they used to. Returns for a number of funds, including those of star managers like John A. Paulson, have fallen by as much as half this year. And that poor performance comes just as these investment partnerships are coming under increased regulatory scrutiny. Yet the money keeps pouring in, even for Mr. Paulson.
  • Financial Finger-Pointing Turns to Regulators. A new defense has been mounted by a bank executive: my regulator told me to do it.
  • Fate of Euro May Hinge on Italian Savers. Even though Europe’s debt crisis has turned Rome into financial ground zero, Italy has been able to lean on at least one solid support: the relatively large amount of government debt held by Italians themselves. Nearly 57 percent of Italian debt is held by Italian banks, insurance companies and individuals. Those holdings have helped slow the flight of capital from Italy, even as foreign investors have been withdrawing their money from the country to park in safe havens like German, Swiss, American or Japanese government bonds. But financial officials have become jittery about the possibility that Italians may stop buying this debt, and instead become more like Greeks and send their hard-earned savings abroad.
LA Times:
  • Occupy San Diego Has Cost Police Department $2.4 Million. The Occupy San Diego protest has cost the Police Department $2.4 million in overtime and regular salaries for police officers redeployed from their regular beats, the department announced Tuesday. Included in the figure is $143,918 in overtime expenditures. The remaining amount was the cost of redeploying on-duty personnel to provide protection and maintain order at the protest site behind and adjacent to City Hall, officials said.
Wall Street All-Stars:
US News:
  • Federal Housing Administration Could be the Next Housing Bailout. First it was the big banks with their failed "credit-default swap" schemes and subprime mortgage meltdown. Then it was federally-backed mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac who sagged under the weight of risky home loans. Now the government agency responsible for insuring more than $1 trillion in mortgages could be in financial trouble, with most of its cash reserves depleted and claims on defaulting mortgages mounting.
Rasmussen Reports:
  • Daily Presidential Tracking Poll. The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows that 21% of the nation's voters Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as president. Forty percent (40%) Strongly Disapprove, giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of -19 (see trends).
Reuters:
 Telegraph:
  • Uh oh, global warming loons: here comes Climategate II! Breaking news: two years after the Climategate, a further batch of emails has been leaked onto the internet by a person – or persons – unknown. And as before, they show the "scientists" at the heart of the Man-Made Global Warming industry in a most unflattering light. Michael Mann, Phil Jones, Ben Santer, Tom Wigley, Kevin Trenberth, Keith Briffa – all your favourite Climategate characters are here, once again caught red-handed in a series of emails exaggerating the extent of Anthropogenic Global Warming, while privately admitting to one another that the evidence is nowhere near as a strong as they'd like it to be. In other words, what these emails confirm is that the great man-made global warming scare is not about science but about political activism.
  • Spain in Race Against Time to Avert Bail-Out. Markets have dashed any lingering hopes of an investor honeymoon for Spain's incoming leader Mariano Rajoy, sending the IBEX index in Madrid crashing through the 8,000 level and pushing borrowing costs to toxic levels. Yields on three-month Spanish notes jumped to 5.11pc at a sale on Tuesday, higher than rates paid by Greece last week. Mr Rajoy's team is scrambling to find ways to shorten the paralysing hiatus until mid-December when the new government is finally able to take charge under Spanish law. "We have to go beyond strictly legal requirements because the markets are not going to wait," said Miguel Arias Canete head of the Partido Popular's top body. Close advisers to Mr Rajoy said the party will have to flesh out exactly how it plans to pull the country out of its downward spiral, and perhaps reach an accord with the outgoing socialist to start implementing emergency measures. The country may need €30bn (£26bn) in fresh cuts to reach its 4.4pc deficit target next year. HSBC said the country is in a race against time to avoid becoming the fourth EMU country to need a bail-out.

China Daily:
  • The European debt crisis will "severely" challenge the upgrade of China's industry, Su Bo, vice minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology said in a commentary.
Commercial Times:
  • China Steel Corp. may cut January and February prices for domestic customers. The steelmaker will lower hot-rolled prices by $50 to $60 a metric ton when it announces prices tomorrow.
China Business News:
  • China's economy won't experience a "hard landing," citing Pan Jiancheng, deputy director-general of the China Economic Monitoring and Analysis Center of the National Bureau of Statistics. The country's macroeconomic policy won't change direction, Pan said. Company financing is a major concern for the economy, Penn said. Domestic consumption isn't increasing "fast enough," which is also a concern, he said.
Evening Recommendations
  • None of note
Night Trading
  • Asian equity indices are -2.50% to -1.0% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 227.0 +7.0 basis points.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 165.50 +1.0 basis point.
  • FTSE-100 futures -1.51%.
  • S&P 500 futures -1.21%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -1.02%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
  • (DE)/1.44
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • Durable Goods Orders for October are estimated to fall -1.2% versus a -.8% decline in September.
  • Durables Ex Transports for October are estimated unch. versus a +1.7% gain in September.
  • Cap Goods Orders Non-defense Ex Air for October are estimated to fall -1.0% versus a +2.4% gain in September.
  • Personal Income for October is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.1% gain in September.
  • Personal Spending for October is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.6% gain in September.
  • The PCE Core for October is estimated to rise +.1% versus unch. in September.
  • Initial Jobless Claims are estimated to rise to 390K versus 388K the prior week.
  • Continuing Claims are estimated to rise to 3621K versus 3608K prior.

9:55 am EST

  • Final Univ. of Mich. Consumer Confidence for November is estimated at 64.5 versus a prior estimate of 64.2.

10:30 am EST

  • Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory build of +500,000 barrels versus a -1,056,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate supplies are estimated to fall by -1,250,000 barrels versus a -2,136,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline inventories are estimated to rise by 1,000,000 barrels versus a +992,000 barrel gain the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is expected to rise by +.5% versus a +2.2% gain the prior week.

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Kansans City Fed Manufacturing Activity Index for November, weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index, 7-Year Treasury Note Auction and the weekly MBA mortgage applications report could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by commodity and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open lower and to maintain losses into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.
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Tuesday, November 22, 2011

Stocks Lower into Final Hour on Rising Eurozone Debt Angst, Global Growth Fears, Financial/Tech Sector Pessimism, Rising Energy Prices

Posted by Gary .....at 3:56 PM

Broad Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  • Volume: Slightly Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • VIX 31.65 -3.83%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 106.0 unch.
  • Total Put/Call 1.02 -5.56%
  • NYSE Arms 1.84 -22.70%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 141.44 +.99%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 304.04 +5.85%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 361.33 +1.12%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 335.46 +.07%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 52.0 -2 bps
  • TED Spread 49.0 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .01% +1 bp
  • Yield Curve 167.0 -2 bps
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $146.60/Metric Tonne -.54%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 40.80 -8.1 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.90 -1 bp
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei Futures: Indicating -40 open in Japan
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +28 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my medical/biotech sector longs and index hedges
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then covered some of them
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long
BOTTOM LINE: Today's overall market action is bearish, as the S&P 500 gives back most of its mid-day reversal higher on rising Eurozone debt angst, global growth fears, financial/tech sector pessimism, high energy prices and technical selling. On the positive side, Biotech, Medical, Gaming and Restaurant shares are higher on the day. Large-cap "growth" shares are outperforming. Copper is rising +.32% and the UBS-Bloomberg Ag Spot Index is declining -.38%. Johnson Redbook weekly retail sales rose +3.3% this week versus a +3.2% gain the prior week. Over the last 3 weeks weekly sales have averaged a +3.2% gain versus a +4.6% average weekly increase during October. On the negative side, Coal, Oil Tanker, Oil Service, Utility, Steel, Paper, Semi, Networking, I-Banking and Airline shares are under meaningful pressure, falling more than -1.5%. Small-cap and cyclical shares are underperforming again. (XLF)/(XLK) have also underperformed throughout the day. Oil is rising +.72%, gold is gaining +1.1% and lumber is falling -1.7%. The 10-year yield is falling -2 bps to session lows at 1.94%. Major European equity indices fell 1-1.5% on average today. Italian shares(-29.2% ytd) were Europe's worst-performers again today, falling -1.54%. The Germany sovereign cds is climbing +4.57% to 101.67 bps, the France sovereign cds is climbing +5.95% to 243.54 bps, the Spain sovereign cds is gaining +4.28% to 485.83 bps, the Italy sovereign cds is climbing +2.7% to 551.11 bps, the China sovereign cds is gaining +2.0% to 158.0 bps, the UK sovereign cds is gaining +4.32% to 96.15 bps, the Japan sovereign cds is gaining +3.05% to 122.91 bps and the Belgium sovereign cds is gaining +6.67% to 354.88 bps. Moreover, the Emerging Markets Sovereign CDS Index is jumping +3.05% to 309.50 bps. The France and Belgium sovereign cds are making new all-time highs and the Spain, Hungary, Italy sovereign cds are very close to their recent record highs. The TED spread continues to trend higher and is at the highest since June 2010. The 2-Year Swap spread is near the highest since May 2010. The FRA/OIS Spread is near the highest since May 2010. The 2yr Euro Swap Spread is near the highest since Nov. 2008. The 3M Euro Basis Swap is near the worst since November 2008. The Libor-OIS spread is near the widest since July 2009, which is also noteworthy considering the recent equity advance off the lows. China Iron Ore Spot has plunged -23.6% since February 16th and -19.0% since Sept. 7th. The announcement from the IMF today will not have a meaningfully positive impact on the situation in Europe unless accompanied by a politically suicidal large funding increase, in my opinion. As well, recent statements from Germany should trouble investors. Trading still has a somewhat complacent feel to it as stocks surged off the morning lows again on the IMF announcement, accompanied by below average volume, despite the ongoing significant deterioration in European credit gauges. I still think the risk in equities remains substantial unless a positive catalyst emerges from Europe very soon. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-lower into the close from current levels on rising Eurozone debt angst, rising global growth fears, financial/tech sector pessimism, more shorting, rising energy prices and technical selling.
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Today's Headlines

Posted by Gary .....at 2:57 PM

Bloomberg:
  • Germany Sees No New Tools in Resolving Debt Crisis as Spanish Yields Surge. Germany rejected calls from allies and investors to do more to counter market turmoil as Spain’s financing costs surged and pressure mounted on Greek political leaders to submit written commitments to austerity measures. Bond yields in France, Spain and Italy climbed as the absence of progress toward enacting a month-old comprehensive crisis-fighting package and a dispute over the central bank’s role rattled investors. Spanish three-month bills were auctioned today at higher yields than in Greece and Portugal. “We don’t have any new bazooka to pull out of the bag,” Michael Meister, finance spokesman for Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic bloc, said in Berlin today. “We see no alternative to the policy we are following,” which sees debt cuts and keeping the European Central Bank from becoming a lender of last resort, he said in an interview. Germany is signaling resistance to stepping up Europe’s response as the debt crisis that began more than two years ago in Greece threatens France, after snaring Ireland, Portugal, Italy and Spain. While the extra yield investors demand to lend to AAA-rated France reached 200 basis points more than Germany on Nov. 17, the highest risk premium since 1990, Meister said current policies will work if given enough time. Merkel, speaking today in Berlin to members of the BDA employers’ association, said the euro region’s debt crisis “can’t be solved in a big bang.” “We have frittered away political trust in the euro,” Merkel said. “That is why I deeply believe that you can’t restore this confidence with purely financial means, but that only a coherent political response can create this confidence.” Merkel said the European Union will have to make swift treaty changes to deal with the situation and noted the EU summit on Dec. 9, which will deal with this issue. The additional yield sought by investors for holding 10- year French bonds instead of benchmark German bunds widened 10 basis points to 164 basis points at 3:20 p.m. in Frankfurt.
  • IMF Revamps Credit Lines to Lure Nations. The International Monetary Fund revamped its credit line program to encourage countries facing outside shocks to turn to the fund with few conditions attached as European leaders fail to end their debt turmoil. The Washington-based IMF today said the new instrument, the Precautionary and Liquidity Line, can be tapped by countries with strong economies currently facing short-term liquidity needs. Countries with potential needs can also apply, as they did in the past under the Precautionary Credit Line that the new instrument replaces. “The reform enhances the Fund’s ability to provide financing for crisis prevention and resolution,” IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde said in an e-mailed statement. “This is another step toward creating an effective global financial safety net to deal with increased global interconnectedness.” The IMF is co-financing bailouts in Greece, Portugal and Ireland and is preparing to send a team to Italy for an unprecedented audit of the country’s efforts to cut its debt.
  • Sovereign Credit-Default Swaps Index Rises to Record in Europe. The cost of insuring against default on European sovereign debt rose to a record, according to traders of credit-default swaps. The Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe Index of swaps on 15 governments climbed four basis points to 364.5 at 4 p.m. in London. Contracts on Belgium, France and Spain also rose to all- time highs. Swaps on Belgium soared 17 basis points to 353 as coalition talks were suspended and Elio Di Rupo offered to resign from leading the negotiations after the six parties involved failed to agree about how to cut the budget deficit. Contracts on France rose three basis points to 237 on concern it may lose its top AAA credit rating, and Spain increased 11 to 484, according to CMA. Swaps on Norway rose six basis points to 52, the highest since Oct. 4. Contracts on the Markit iTraxx Crossover Index of 50 companies with mostly high-yield credit ratings climbed nine basis points to 802.5, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. The Markit iTraxx Europe Index of 125 companies with investment- grade ratings was 1.25 at 199.25 basis points. The Markit iTraxx Financial Index linked to senior debt of 25 banks and insurers increased four basis points to 319 and the subordinated gauge was eight higher at 563, both records.
  • Spain Pays More to Borrow Than Greece. Spain paid more than Greece and Portugal to sell three-month bills as the newly elected People’s Party called for a European agreement to “save” the nation’s debt, saying the country can’t afford 7 percent interest rates. Spain’s three-month borrowing costs doubled as it sold bills at an average yield of 5.11 percent, more than twice the rate at the previous auction a month ago. The Treasury paid more than the 4.63 percent for 13-week bills sold Nov. 15 by Greece, which received a European Union-led bailout last year. Portugal paid 4.895 percent on three-month bills the following day. Maria Dolores de Cospedal, the deputy leader of Spain’s People’s Party which ousted the ruling Socialists on Nov. 20, yesterday called for a euro-region accord to “save and guarantee the solvency” of Spain’s 650 billion-euro ($881 billion) debt. Spain can’t afford to “continue financing itself at 7 percent,” she said, referring to the yield on 10-year debt that led Greece, Portugal and Ireland to seek EU aid. Prime Minister-elect Mariano Rajoy told German Chancellor Angela Merkel in a phone call yesterday that “countries that meet their obligations and responsibilities must be helped by European institutions,” Cospedal said. The European Commission yesterday said it had no knowledge of any Spanish request for aid or plans to seek it. Germany dismissed calls for Europe to come to Spain’s assistance. “We don’t have any new bazooka to pull out of the bag,” said Michael Meister, finance spokesman in parliament for Merkel’s Christian Democratic bloc.
  • Euro-Region November Consumer Confidence Hits Two-Year Low on Job Concern. European consumer confidence dropped to the lowest in more than two years in November, as the economy edged toward a recession and companies eliminated jobs. An index of household sentiment in the 17-nation euro area fell to minus 20.4 from minus 19.9 in October, the Brussels- based European Commission said in an initial estimate today. That’s the lowest since August 2009. Economists had forecast a drop to minus 21, the median of 28 estimates in a Bloomberg survey showed. Confidence has weakened for five straight months, the longest stretch of declines since 2008.
  • Dodd-Frank Law May Hinder Crisis Response by Policy Makers. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and fellow U.S. policy makers may find themselves hampered in restoring financial stability should the European debt crisis spread to America. The Dodd-Frank legislation passed last year prohibits the Fed from engaging in rescues of individual financial firms, such as it did with Bear Stearns Cos. and American International Group Inc. during the 2008 financial crisis. Lawmakers also banned the Treasury Department from again using an emergency reserve program to backstop money market funds. And the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. now has to get Congressional approval before it can guarantee senior debt issued by banks. Investors “don’t realize the extent to which Congress has tied people’s hands,” said Donald Kohn, who served as vice chairman of the Fed from 2006 to 2010 and is now senior economic strategist for Potomac Research Group in Washington, an independent research firm. “There is less room to maneuver for the authorities.”
  • U.S. Economic Growth in Q3 Revised Lower. The economy in the U.S. expanded less than previously estimated in the third quarter, reflecting a drop in inventories that points to a pickup in growth as 2011 comes to a close. Gross domestic product climbed at a 2 percent annual rate from July through September, less than projected and down from a 2.5 percent prior estimate, revised Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington. The median forecast of 81 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News called for no revision.
  • FOMC Minutes Reveal a 'Few' Members Want Easing. Some Federal Reserve policy makers said the central bank should consider easing policy further, according to minutes of their Nov. 1-2 meeting. “A few members indicated that they believed the economic outlook might warrant additional policy accommodation,” the Fed said in minutes released today in Washington. “However, it was noted that any such accommodation would likely be more effective if it were provided in the context of a future communications initiative, and most of these members agreed that they could support retention of the current policy stance at this meeting.”
  • Oil Gains First Time in Four Days on Iran Sanctions. Oil rose for the first time in four days as new sanctions against Iran and protests in Egypt raised concern that supplies will be disrupted. Crude advanced as much as 1.8 percent after the U.S., the U.K. and Canada expanded measures aimed at thwarting Iran’s nuclear program. In Egypt, protesters gathered in Tahrir Square for a fifth day after deadly clashes between security forces and demonstrators spurred the Cabinet to offer to quit. Crude for January delivery gained 81 cents, or 0.8 percent, to $97.73 a barrel at 12:13 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
  • Gold Rebounds From One-Month Low as Sovereign-Debt Concerns Stoke Demand. Gold futures rebounded from the lowest in almost four weeks after mounting debt woes in the U.S. and Europe spurred demand for the metal as a store of value. A U.S. congressional committee failed to reach agreement on reducing the budget deficit. Global equities have tumbled this month as Europe’s credit crisis escalated. Holdings in exchange- traded products backed by gold climbed to a record yesterday.
  • Jefferies(JEF) Should Raise $1 Billion in Equity. Jefferies Group Inc. (JEF) should raise $1 billion in equity and reduce leverage as MF Global Holdings Ltd.’s bankruptcy increases scrutiny of the investment bank’s balance sheet, Egan-Jones Ratings Co. said. Without a “major deleveraging,” New York-based Jefferies may have its credit grade cut, Egan-Jones said today in a note to clients. The ratings firm downgraded the bank to BBB- from BBB earlier this month.
  • Debit Card Fees Under Justice Dept. Review. The U.S. Justice Department is conducting an antitrust review of statements and actions by banks and their trade associations over possible increases in consumer fees for using debit cards. Assistant Attorney General Ronald Weich described the review in a letter released today by Representative Peter Welch, a Democrat from Vermont, who had requested an investigation. “Please be assured that if it finds that individuals, banks or other parties may have violated the antitrust laws, the department will take appropriate action,” Weich wrote in the letter, dated Nov. 16.
  • Groupon(GRPN) Shares Plunge, Trading Close to IPO. Groupon Inc., the largest Internet daily-deal site, plunged as much as 15 percent in Nasdaq Stock Market trading, pushing the shares near their initial public offering price for the first time.
Wall Street Journal:
  • FX Concepts: Equity Market Links Hint At More Euro Weakness. The euro looks set to fall in the weeks ahead as it follows related movements in German and U.S. stock markets, one of the world's biggest currencies fund-management firms said Tuesday.
  • Egypt's Military Vows to Move Up Transfer of Power. The head of Egypt's ruling military council, in a rare public address to countrymen again embroiled in widespread protest, vowed Tuesday to move up the timeline of presidential elections and suggested he was willing to hold a public referendum on the role of the country's military.
  • Big Selloff Hits Europe Bond Markets. Euro-zone bond markets suffered another selloff Tuesday, with investors especially dumping short-term debt after Spain was forced to pay a heavy price to auction its latest brace of Treasury bills. The Spanish Treasury was forced to pay a euro-era record 5.11% yield on three-month Treasury bills at auction, more than double the rate paid at last month's auction. By way of comparison, to access the short-term debt market Spain now must pay more than Greece paid at its last three-month auction a week ago.
MarketWatch:
  • Market Still Working Off Excess Optimism. My hunch is that sentiment was a major culprit: Bullish excitement rose to dangerously high levels in the wake of the October rally, and that euphoria needed to be worked off.
CNBC.com:
  • Demonstrators Plan to Occupy Retailers on Black Friday. Organizers are encouraging consumers to either occupy or boycott retailers that are publicly traded, according to the Stop Black Friday website. The goal of the movement is to impact the profits of major corporations this holiday season.
  • European Banks Relying More On Central Bank for Funding. Euro zone banks' demand for central funding surged to a two-year high on Tuesday, and U.S. funds cut their lending to the bloc's banks, tightening a squeeze that looks unlikely to ease this year. The ECB's weekly, limit-free handout of funding underscored the widespread problems, with 178 banks requesting 247 billion euros, the highest amount since mid-2009.
Business Insider:
Zero Hedge:
Institutional Investor:
  • ETFs Play Big Role at Major Hedge Funds. Exchange traded funds (ETFs) continue to be a favored way for many of the largest, savviest and best-known hedge fund firms to bet on the direction of the overall market or a basket of stocks in an individual industry or market. In fact, in the third quarter ETFs represented the largest holding or largest new purchase by a number of hedge funds. ETFs offer investors an efficient and low-cost way to make a market bet or to hedge a portfolio. They can also skew the movement of the underlying stocks, which can experience a bigger move up or down than they may otherwise experience had they not been included in the basket of stocks. Among the more aggressive users of these instruments is Louis Bacon’s Moore Capital.
The Bond Buyer:
  • Volcker Rule May Adversely Impact Munis. Some market participants are concerned that the current version of the Volcker Rule would hurt the municipal bond market. Named after Paul Volcker, the former Federal Reserve chairman, the rule would restrict federal insured banks’ ability to trade for their own benefit.
Real Clear Markets:
Reuters:
Financial Times:
  • US Banks Warn Reforms Will Hit Eurozone. U.S. banks say the so-called Volcker rules that will ban proprietary trading from July next year will hurt demand for euro area government bonds. The banks point out that trading on their own accounts makes up a large part of the U.S. presence in the $13 trillion eurozone debt market, though precise figures are hard to obtain.
Telegraph:
Sky News:
  • Exclusive: JPMorgan(JPM) Secures £30m LME Stake. JP Morgan, the US banking giant, is on the verge of securing a deal that will see it become the biggest shareholder in the London Metal Exchange (LME), I have learned. The bank is poised to snap up the 4.65% stake in the LME owned by the collapsed broker MF Global for about £30m, I'm told. A deal could be announced by KPMG, MF's administrator, as soon as this afternoon.
NRC Handelsblad:
  • Political crisis in Belgium is worrying and markets may run out of patience, Jean Deboutte, director of strategy of Belgium's debt agency, said.
The Australian:
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Bear Radar

Posted by Gary .....at 2:13 PM

Style Underperformer:
  • Small-Cap Value (-.42%)
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Oil Tankers -8.60% 2) Networking -2.63% 3) Steel -1.40%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
  • CPB, NVLS, NFLX, PANL, PDCO, HSIC, TNGO, ANSS, SHLM, SOHU, SWKS, MXIM, RAVN, FIO, PSS and OSG
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) GRPN 2) HPQ 3) EWT 4) KRE 5) CTRP
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) WYNN 2) AFL 3) HPQ 4) CVX 5) NVLS
Charts:
0 comments

Bull Radar

Posted by Gary .....at 11:56 AM

Style Outperformer:
  • Large-Cap Growth (-.62%)
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Gold & Silver +.42% 2) Biotech +.41% 3) Restaurants +.40%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • KGC, FMCN, GILD, VAL, BKS, EBIX and MDT
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) KGC 2) FRO 3) CPB 4) CVS 5) GILD
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) LMT 2) BDX 3) DLTR 4) RIMM 5) BA
Charts:
0 comments

Tuesday Watch

Posted by Gary .....at 12:48 AM

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:
  • France's AAA Status in Tatters as Yields Surge: Euro Credit. Investors aren't waiting for Standard & Poor's or Moody's Investors Service to strip France, Europe's second-biggest economy, of its top credit rating. The extra yield demanded to lend to AAA-rated France for 10 years was 154 basis points more than the German rate yesterday. The gap was 200 basis points on Nov. 17, the widest spread since 1990. The French 10-year yield is at 3.4 percent, about midway between top-rated Holland and Belgium, which is graded one level lower at Aa1 by Moody's. French borrowing costs are more than a percentage point above the AAA-rated U.K. "France isn't trading like a AAA," said Bill Blain, a strategist at Newedge Group in London, who recommends buying U.K. government debt. "The market has made its judgment already." The debt crisis that began more than two years ago in Greece and snared Ireland, Portugal, Italy and Spain is close to reaching France. Moody's said in a report published yesterday that any persistent increase in borrowing costs would amplify the French government's challenges as economic growth slows. President Nicolas Sarkozy has unveiled two sets of budget cuts since August to preserve the credit rating and try to calm jittery markets. Two-year yields on French debt have climbed 59 basis points to 1.7 percent since Sept. 1, while the rate on German bunds of similar maturity fell 24 points to 0.4 percent. "The market is concerned about the dissolution of the euro itself, hence only bunds are acting as a safe haven," said Richard McGuire, a fixed-income strategist at Rabo Bank International in London. Germany is the region's largest nation. French 10-year bond yields may climb above 5 percent, analysts at Credit Suisse Group AG said in a note to investors yesterday. Euro leaders must reach "a momentous deal" for fiscal and political union by mid-January to save the 17-nation bloc, Credit Suisse said in the report. Yield spreads have widened for the other AAA-rated euro- zone countries -- Austria, Finland, the Netherlands and Luxembourg -- bringing the crisis from the periphery to the so- called core. France has the biggest debt burden of the top-rated euro nations, at 85 percent of gross domestic product. Its financial institutions also have the largest debt holdings in the five crisis-hit countries, at 681 billion euros ($921 billion) as of June, according to data from the Bank for International Settlements in Basel. "France is not a AAA at all," said Nicola Marinelli, who oversees $150 million at Glendevon King Asset Management in London. "French banks are very exposed to euro-zone periphery. If they were to mark to market these loans at current levels, there would be huge losses."
  • Euro to Drop as Investors Cease Repatriating Funds, Nomura's Nordvig Says. The euro will drop by the end of the year as the region’s sovereign-debt crisis deepens, pressuring investors who have buoyed the currency by repatriating assets to rethink their strategy, according to Nomura Holdings Inc. The 17-nation currency has traded at least 12 percent higher this month than its lifetime average as European investors brought home 65.9 billion euros ($89 billion) in August and 11.6 billion euros in September, higher than the 12-month average of 629 million euros in inflows, according to European Central Bank data compiled by Bloomberg. The inflows may not continue to be so strong as rising bond yields in Italy and Spain increase concern about contagion in the region and damp investor appetite for European assets, said Nomura’s Jens Nordvig, a managing director of currency research in New York. “You have to evaluate the strength and persistency of this repatriation trend,” Nordvig said in a telephone interview. “Given how the crisis is worsening on an almost daily basis, the pressure on the inflow side is going to be very persistent. Eventually that will win out, and we’ll see the euro lower.”
  • Greece's Samaras Told to Stop Playing 'Political Games' to Ensure EU Aid. Antonis Samaras, head of Greece’s New Democracy party, was told by the president of the European Commission to quit playing “political games” and drop his refusal to pledge written support for Greek budget cuts as a condition for the next installment of international aid. “For the European Union and IMF to support, they need to be sure that this is for a sustainable effort,” commission President Jose Barroso said yesterday in a joint press conference with Greek Premier Lucas Papademos. “What we have to do now is to concentrate on implementation -- less politics and more commitment. It’s not just a sprint; it’s a marathon.”
  • Spain Needs Euro Area Pact to Save Nation's Solvency, People's Party Says. Spain needs a euro-region accord to “save and guarantee the solvency” of its debt amid surging bond yields, said Maria Dolores de Cospedal, deputy leader of the People’s Party, which won the Nov. 20 general election. “Spain cannot continue financing itself at 7 percent,” Cospedal told reporters late yesterday after a meeting of the party’s executive committee in Madrid. “So an agreement through a joint euro-zone operational strategy to save and guarantee our sovereign debt has to come from the European institutions.” PP leader Mariano Rajoy, who won’t take office until the second half of next month, spoke to German Chancellor Angela Merkel yesterday. He told her that “those countries that meet their obligations and responsibilities must be helped by European institutions,” said Cospedal, who is also president of the region of Castilla-La Mancha. Spain’s 10-year borrowing costs rose to 6.553 percent yesterday after the PP, which campaigned on pledges to slash spending and overhaul the economy, won the biggest majority in three decades. In his acceptance speech, Rajoy warned Spaniards to brace for hard times, and said he hadn’t promised any “miracles.”
  • U.S. Rating Affirmed by S&P, Moody's as Supercommittee Fails. Standard & Poor’s and Moody’s Investors Service said they won’t lower ratings on the U.S. after the congressional committee charged with finding $1.5 trillion of deficit cuts failed to reach an agreement. S&P, which stripped the U.S. of its top AAA grade on Aug. 5, said yesterday that the supercommittee’s inability to reach agreement didn’t merit another downgrade because the inaction will trigger $1.2 trillion in automatic spending cuts. The deliberations were “not decisive,” Moody’s spokesman Eduardo Barker said in an e-mail after the panel issued a statement. Fitch Ratings reiterated that the talks failure would likely lead to a revision of the U.S. rating outlook to negative.
  • Wall Street Unoccupied With 200,000 Job Cuts. John Brady, co-head of MF Global Inc.’s Chicago office, was having a vodka cocktail at the Ritz- Carlton in Naples, Florida, overlooking the Gulf of Mexico, on the day his company reported its largest-ever quarterly loss. “Wow, the sun just set,” Brady said to his wife and two colleagues attending a conference with him, he recalled in an interview. “I hope it doesn’t set on MF Global.”
  • Oil Trades Near One-Week Low on European Crisis Concern, U.S. Stockpiles. Oil traded near the lowest price in more than a week in New York as investors speculated that fuel demand may falter as economic growth in Europe stalls and supplies rise in the U.S. Futures were little changed after dropping for a third day yesterday. Growth in Germany, Europe’s largest economy, may slow next year, the Bundesbank said. A U.S. Energy Department report tomorrow may show oil and fuel supplies increased last week, according to a Bloomberg News survey. Saudi Arabian Oil Co. Chief Executive Officer Khalid Al-Falih said the world economy is at risk of a double-dip recession. “We think consumption in the U.S. is still very subdued,” said David Lennox, a resource analyst at Fat Prophets in Sydney, who previously forecast oil would trade from $85 to $95 a barrel. “Any economic slowdown in Europe impacts on crude demand. We see $80 being the floor.”
  • Hewlett-Packard(HPQ) Forecast Misses Estimates Amid Slump. Hewlett-Packard Co. forecast first- quarter profit that missed analysts’ estimates, a sign that Chief Executive Officer Meg Whitman may struggle with the slump that led to the ouster of her predecessor, Leo Apotheker. Profit for the quarter ending in January will be 83 cents to 86 cents a share, excluding some items, the company said in a statement today. The average estimate of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg was for $1.11 a share. The profit forecast for 2012 also fell short of predictions.
  • Oil-Tanker Rally Threatened as Ships Seen Accelerating: Freight. The biggest rebound in oil-tanker rates in almost two years is already being threatened by signs the surge may spur ships to speed up, increasing vessel supply and undermining the rally. The largest tankers cut their speed to an average of 10 knots in October, from 10.8 knots a year earlier, after eight months of unprofitable rates, data compiled by Bloomberg show. A one-knot change adjusts the fleet’s capacity by 5.8 percent, Oslo-based Arctic Securities ASA estimates. Shares of Frontline Ltd., the biggest operator of the ships, jumped 19 percent in the past two weeks as tanker earnings approached break even.
Wall Street Journal:
  • Europe Bank Woes Felt Around Globe. Companies in Emerging Markets Feel Pinch as Lenders From Euro-Zone Countries Retreat to Shore Up Their Finances. A pullback in lending by European banks is beginning to be felt by companies in Africa, Australia and Latin America, making borrowing harder and more expensive, and putting pressure on slowing economies. European banks in recent years dramatically boosted lending to emerging markets and were among the biggest cross-border lenders in these countries. Their retreat has tightened credit in industries—from aircraft to media to mining— squeezing economies already feeling the effects of reduced demand from the developed world for their exports.
  • BofA(BAC) Warned to Get Stronger. Bank of America Corp.'s board has been told that the company could face a public enforcement action if regulators aren't satisfied with recent steps taken to strengthen the bank, said people familiar with the situation. The nation's second-largest lender has been operating under a memorandum of understanding since May 2009, following repeated tussles with regulators over the purchase of securities firm Merrill Lynch & Co. and a downgrade of the company's confidential supervisory rating. The memorandum, which isn't public, identified governance, risk and liquidity management as problems that had to be fixed, according to people familiar with the document.
  • Egypt Unrest Raised Heat on Military. Thousands of protesters clashed with Egyptian security forces for a third straight day Monday in an increasingly violent showdown with the country's ruling generals, who face unprecedented and rapidly escalating discontent less than a week before scheduled elections. As night descended on Cairo, scores of unconscious protesters continued to be dragged from smoke and teargas-clogged side streets leading into Tahrir Square, the heart of Egyptians' protests early this year. Fighting between security forces and protesters have left 33 people dead since Saturday morning and injured more than 1,000, say health officials.
  • Senator Schumer Urges Audit Watchdog to Act on China. A prominent senator is expected to urge the U.S. auditing-oversight agency to refuse to allow Chinese accounting firms to audit U.S.-traded companies until American inspectors are allowed to evaluate the firms' work.
  • Why the Super Committee Failed.
Business Insider:
 Zero Hedge:
 CNBC:
  • China Property Dip Sparks Bank Fears. The number of property transactions in China’s largest cities has fallen to dangerously low levels, according to regulatory documents obtained by the Financial Times. According to the documents, the China Banking Regulatory Commission earlier this year ordered domestic banks to weigh the impact of a 30 per cent decline in housing transactions in “stress tests” aimed at determining the health of the Chinese financial system. While the government has been trying to rein in sky-high property prices, a Chinese real estate slump would have a significant ripple effect on the global economy. Property construction accounted for more than 13 per cent of China’s economy last year. In April the CBRC told banks to test their loan books against a 50 percent fall in prices, and also a 30 per cent fall in transaction volumes. In October, however, property transactions fell 39 percent year-on-year in China’s 15 biggest cities , according to government data. Nationwide, transactions dropped 11.6 percent, accelerating from a 7 percent fall in September.The fall-off in transactions has affected developers’ cash flows and, in some cases, their ability to repay bank loans.
Seeking Alpha:
  • How Big Derivatives Dealers Caused 'Contagion' In The Eurozone. Did the International Swaps & Derivatives Association (ISDA) throw Europe into chaos? Is it responsible for causing Italy and other European nations' woes, for the sudden spike in southern European interest rates? It is an interesting question to explore.
Seattle Weekly:
  • Occupy Oakland Votes to Shut Down Entire West Coast Port System on Dec. 12. Peter McGraw, spokesman for the Port of Seattle, tells Seattle Weekly that he's taking a threat of a "total West Coast port shutdown" by Occupy and labor protestors to "very seriously." The threat was announced via a resolution passed by the Occupy Oakland "general assembly", which cited the ongoing fight between Port of Longview union workers at the port's EGT company as one of the main reasons for demanding the work stoppage. The group released the following call to action, which was picked up by numerous Indy Media sites:
Charles Gasparino:
Reuters:
  • China Automakers See Slower Growth Ahead. Car sales growth in China will remain stagnant next year in the absence of incentives for buyers and China's tight credit control, raising pressure on car makers to cut prices and improve after-sales services, industry executives and analysts said on Monday. China, the world's largest automobile market, is likely to see car demand grow between 3 and 10 percent in 2012, compared with about 5-6 percent expected for this year and down from 33 percent in 2010, industry executives said at an auto show in Guangzhou. Car sales in China climbed just 1.4 percent in October, causing growth for the first 10 months to ease to 5.9 percent as the government removed subsidies on small cars and raised the eligibility for fuel-saving incentives. "Sales are affected by government policies, including banks tightening lending. We can feel that. Dealer credit and car financing are also tightening," Zeng added.
  • China may have a trade deficit in 2012 because of poor overseas demand, citing Xia Bin, a PBOC adviser. The government may face pressure to keep inflation next year at 2% to 3% because of excessive liquidity, Xia said.
  • EPA Delays Carbon Limts On Oil Refineries. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, struggling with an ambitious agenda on clean air regulations, said it will delay proposing the country's first-ever greenhouse gas limits on oil refineries.
Financial Times:
Caixin Online:
  • China Provincial Toll Ways Deeply in Debt. Most toll roads fail to make back the money it cost to build them, according to government reports. Most toll ways in 29 provinces across China are badly in debt after failing to earn back the money they cost to build, according to data compiled by Caixin. As of 2010, outstanding loans for toll way construction in 29 provinces totaled almost 2.2 trillion yuan, according to toll way management reports. Of that amount, 1.95 trillion yuan, or 89 percent, was provided by banks, putting financial institutions at risk if local governments fail to pay up. Guangdong had the most toll-related debt of any province, with an outstanding loan of 227 billion yuan. Eight other provinces each had more than 100 billion yuan outstanding. The reports also reveal that the majority of tolls went to repaying debts, leaving little money to cover expenses like road maintenance.
South China Morning Post:
  • Warning on Risk of Property Bubble. Housing prices haven't dropped to "satisfactory" levels, citing Financial Secretary John Tsang's comments to city lawmakers. Tsang said he is still concerned about the formation of another bubble.
Financial News:
  • China's economy's relatively fast growth and initial success in fighting inflation faces uncertainty from internal and external sources such as the European debt crisis, citing Hu Xiaolian, the central bank deputy head. China should continue stable monetary policy with "appropriate" minor adjustments, Hu said. Financial institutions should reduce over-reliance on debt for growth, Hu said.
  • China's 2011 CPI May Rise More Than 5.5%, citing Zhang Shuguang, the chairman of Unirule Institute of Economics's academic board. Unirule is a private think tank in Beijing.
Evening Recommendations
  • None of note
Night Trading
  • Asian equity indices are -1.0% to unch. on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 222.50 +7.0 basis points.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 164.50 +4.0 basis points.
  • FTSE-100 futures +.64%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.45%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.41%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
  • (PDCO)/.46
  • (HRL)/.42
  • (GCO)/.94
  • (CHS)/.20
  • (CPB)/.79
  • (DSW)/.80
  • (CBRL)/1.07
  • (MDT)/.82
  • (EV)/.43
  • (NUAN)/.41
  • (FRED)/.22
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • Preliminary 3Q GDP is estimated to rise +2.5% versus a prior estimate of a +2.5% gain.
  • Preliminary 3Q Personal Consumption is estimated to rise +2.4% versus a prior estimate of a +2.4% gain.
  • Preliminary 3Q GDP Price Index is estimated to rise +2.5% versus a prior estimate of a +2.6% gain.
  • Preliminary 3Q Core PCE is estimated to rise +2.1% versus a prior estimate of a +2.1% gain.

2:00 pm EST

  • Minutes of FOMC Meeting.

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Kocherlakota speaking, 5-year Treasury Note Auction, weekly retail sales reports, China Manufacturing PMI and the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by commodity and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.
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