Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Greek Debt Talks to Resume in Athens as Policy Makers Squabble Over Cost. Talks on a debt swap to avert a Greek default resume today as international policy makers squabble over the mounting cost of the rescue. Charles Dallara and Jean Lemierre, negotiating on behalf of private creditors, return to Athens today after European finance ministers insisted bondholders take bigger losses on their Greek debt. The International Monetary Fund further roiled the discussions by suggesting that public holders of Greek bonds might also have to increase support. The parties are groping for a solution three months after private bondholders agreed with European officials to implement a 50 percent cut in the face value of more than 200 billion euros ($262 billion) of debt by voluntarily swapping bonds for new securities. Since then, an economic contraction that exceeded estimates has made the goal of cutting Greece’s debt to 120 percent of gross domestic product by 2020 harder. An accord is tied to a second bailout for the country, which faces a 14.5 billion-euro bond payment on March 20. “The cost of postponing a solution is extremely high for Europe, but especially for the future of the euro,” said Giovanni Bossi, chief executive officer of Banca Ifis SpA, an Italian financial-services company that doesn’t own Greek debt. “The parties are very close to a deal -- it’s time to close.”
• Gold Surges to Six-Week High on Fed's Forecast for Low Borrowing Costs. Gold futures surged to a six-week high after the Federal Reserve said it expects “exceptionally low” interest rates through at least late 2014. Silver, platinum and palladium also advanced. Fed Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said at a press conference after the central bank’s statement that the option of further large- scale bond purchases is still “on the table.” Gold has jumped 28 percent in the past 12 months, partly as record-low rates boosted the appeal of the metal as a hedge against inflation. “We saw an immediate reaction in gold” after the Fed’s announcement, Michael A. Gayed, the chief investment strategist who helps oversee $150 million at New York-based Pension Partners LLC, said in a telephone interview. “People are betting that at some point the economy will face inflationary pressures because of the low interest rate.”
• CBOE Put-Call Ratio Hits Eight-Month Low on Stock Rally: Options.. The ratio of bearish versus bullish options changing hands on the CBOE slipped to the lowest level since May as traders piled into the S&P 500 Index's rally amid the measure's best start to a year since 1997. The CBOE Equity Put/Call Ratio's average over the past 20 days has dropped to .61 and on Jan. 19 the level fell to .47, according to data from the exchange compiled by Bloomberg.
• U.S. Banks Face Pressure on Margins From Fed Policy on Rates. Bank of America Corp. and Citigroup Inc. are among lenders that may find it more difficult to boost profits and capital after the Federal Reserve pledged to keep its benchmark interest rate low until at least late 2014. “This hurts the banks, I don’t think there’s any question about that,” said Ralph Cole, a senior vice president of research at Ferguson Wellman Inc. in Portland, Oregon, which manages $2.9 billion. “Their cost of funds stays low but it makes it harder to earn a return.” The Federal Open Market Committee said yesterday that economic conditions are likely to warrant “exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate at least through late 2014.” The policy may hurt lenders’ profits as they struggle to find loans or securities with yields high enough to support their net interest margins, a gauge of profitability that measures the difference between the cost of funds and what they earn on assets.
• SanDisk(SNDK) Drops as Sales Forecast Misses Estimates on Lower Prices. SanDisk Corp. (SNDK) shares dropped in late trading after the biggest maker of flash-memory cards gave a first-quarter sales forecast that missed analysts’ estimates, citing lower prices for chips that store data in mobile phones. Sales in the current period will be $1.3 billion to $1.35 billion, Chief Financial Officer Judy Bruner said on a conference call today. Milpitas, California-based Sandisk was projected to have sales of $1.46 billion, the average estimate of analysts in a Bloomberg survey. The shares declined as much as 11 percent.
• China Police Open Fire on Tibetans. Police in southwestern China opened fire on protesters in a Tibetan enclave during a clash Jan. 24, the second straight day of deadly protests in the area, the official Xinhua News Agency reported. The confrontation occurred after a crowd gathered two days ago near the Chengguan Police Station, Xinhua said yesterday, citing an unidentified police officer. The crowd refused to disperse and then stormed the station with knives, gasoline bottles and stones, according to the report. Police opened fire after attempts to disperse the crowd by non-lethal means failed, Xinhua reported. One protester was killed and another injured, in addition to 14 police wounded, according to the report. “The Tibetan people are unhappy and restive about their lot in China,” Mohan Guruswamy, chairman of the Centre for Policy Alternatives, a New Delhi-based research group, said in an e-mail. “There is ample evidence of it, and the acute Chinese sensitivity to any comment on Tibet is only proof.”
• South Korea's Economy Grows at Slowest Pace in Years. South Korea’s economy grew the least in two years in the fourth quarter as exports sank because of Europe’s sovereign debt crisis and a faltering global expansion. Gross domestic product expanded 0.4 percent from the third quarter, when it gained 0.8 percent, the central bank said in Seoul today. That was less than the median 0.5 percent estimate of 10 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.
• Logitech Cuts Its Full-Year Forecasts. Logitech International SA (LOGN), the world’s biggest maker of computer mice, cut its forecasts for sales and operating income, citing the weaker euro and decreased demand for products such as web cameras and remote controls. The company changed its sales forecast for the fiscal year ending March 31 to $2.3 billion, with operating income estimated at $60 million. Logitech, which also produces gaming devices, in September cut its forecast for full-year operating profit to about $90 million on sales of about $2.4 billion. “The euro has weakened considerably during the last three months,” Chairman and interim Chief Executive Officer Guerrino De Luca said in the statement. “In addition, webcams and remotes continue to be impacted more than expected by product portfolio and market weakness.”

Wall Street Journal:

• SEC Puts Private Equity Under the Enforcement Microscope. A panel of three members from the SEC’s asset management unit, which was created in 2010 within the agency’s enforcement division, pointed to an increased likelihood of enforcement actions against private equity firms in the coming years. “I think that private equity law enforcement today is where hedge fund law enforcement was five or six years ago,” Robert Kaplan, co-chief of the asset management unit said Wednesday during the Private Equity Analyst Outlook conference in New York. In the past 12 months, the SEC’s enforcement division brought about 50 cases against hedge fund managers, Kaplan said.
• The Development Ladder, Post-Crisis. World Bank Chief Economist Lin Yifu on Industrialization and the Lessons to Learn From Financial Meltdowns.
• How Green Became Obama's Albatross. The president is trapped by his own rhetoric amid America's energy boom. He knows China and India are opening a new coal plant every week. He knows the huge amounts of fossil energy lying at humanity's feet won't be abandoned just because an American president says so. He can't fail to notice that Canada's oil sands won't remain undeveloped; the oil will go to the Far East. Mr. Obama also seems enough of a free thinker to entertain the possibility at least that global warming theory may be wrong. In a telling exchange with interviewer Charlie Rose a few years ago, Al Gore was asked to describe the evidence of man's role in climate change. Each time Mr. Gore recurred to some version of a "consensus of scientists" or "the most respected scientists whose judgment I think is the best." The truth is, the theory may be popular, but the evidence has thus far eluded the tens of billions spent on climate science. The temperature data are so noisy that they reveal no pattern connecting rising CO2 in the industrial age with temperature trends. Some say because CO2 is a "greenhouse" gas, shut up, case closed. But the known relationship between carbon and climate doesn't actually indicate a big reason to worry.
• Lam Research(LRCX) 2Q Profit Slumps 85% On Sharp Sales Drop. Lam Research Corp.'s (LRCX) fiscal second-quarter earnings slumped 85% as the semiconductor-equipment maker's revenue dropped sharply. The company anticipated near-term declines in spending on wafer-fabrication equipment amid an industry slowdown in the second half of last year.
• Uphill Fight Awaits New Mortgage - Fraud Unit. The Justice Department's plan to create a new mortgage-crime unit in tandem with state authorities, announced by President Barack Obama in his State of the Union address, represents the latest move in an effort that so far has led to few prosecutions of bankers. The new unit may help push forward a broad settlement under which banks would pay billions of dollars to resolve charges about "robo-signing" documents and other alleged mortgage abuses. But when it comes to bringing criminal charges against individual executives, the unit is likely to face the same kind of difficulties earlier task forces have encountered.
• Public Pensions Increase Private-Equity Investments. Large public pension plans are pouring more money into private-equity funds, deepening ties between government workers and an industry currently under the harsh glare of U.S. presidential politics. Big public-employee pensions had about $220 billion invested in private equity in September, or 11% of their assets, according to Wilshire Trust Universe Comparison Service, which tracks the holdings of pensions, foundations and endowments.
• The Buffett Ruse. Obama's ploy means the highest capital gains tax rate since 1978. Remember the moment in 2008 when Charlie Gibson of ABC News asked Senator Barack Obama why he would support raising the capital gains tax even though "revenues from the tax increased" when the rate fell? Mr. Obama's famous reply: "I would look at raising the capital gains tax for purposes of fairness." Well, we were warned.
• With EU Embargo on Iran Oil, Chinese Traders Poised to Profit. Europe’s decision to embargo Iranian oil exports is strategically sound, since a nuclear-armed Iran is in no one’s interest. Yet, policymakers are overlooking how an embargo may strategically reshape the global oil trade in China’s favor. Major Chinese oil traders are building businesses that are world class in terms of volumes traded. The latest oil embargo will help them further their ambitions.

Business Insider:

• The US Has Already Lost These Eight Industries To China.
• Indiana House Has Dealt A Huge Blow To Unions In The Rust Belt.
• Tim Geithner Will Not Stay For A Second Term.
• The Troika Are Just Keeping Markets From Panicking And Buying Governments Time.
  

Zero Hedge:

• Market Now Pricing In $770 Billion Increase In Fed Balance Sheet.

CNBC:

• Larry McDonald Calls Portugal CDS a Bear Signal. Action in Portugal’s credit-default swaps might be a telling bear signal, economic expert and author Larry McDonald said Wednesday. While Greece has “backup” private-sector involvement that could buoy its economy, the Portugal CDS 5-Year [PTCD5 1453.03 7.37 (+0.51%) ] was at record levels, McDonald said on “Fast Money.” “It’s decoupling from the rest of the group,” he said. McDonald likened the situation with Portugal and Greece to a financial event horizon in 2008. “The political will to save Lehman Brothers — and I talk about this in my book — was really taken away from Bear Stearns,” he said. McDonald called it a bearish signal in the intermediate term.
• Government Trying to 'Cripple' Banks: Dick Bove. Between the Federal Reserve’s announcement that it will not raise interest rates until at least 2014 and President Obama’s mortgage refinancing plan, the government is trying to cripple the banking system, noted bank analyst Dick Bove told “The Kudlow Report” Wednesday. “What this government is doing is its attempting to restrict or cripple the banking system so it cannot perform the way it wants in terms of assisting the economy,” the Rochdale Securities analyst said.
• Netflix(NFLX) Blows Past Expectations; Shares Jump 15%. Netflix's fourth-quarter earnings and revenue outpaced Wall Street's expectations as the video-rental website reversed subscriber losses to sign up more than 600,000 new U.S. customers in the period.

NY Times:

• Fed Signals That a Full Recovery Is Years Away.

Washington Post:

• Philippines May Allow Greater U.S. Military Presence In Reaction To China's Rise. Two decades after evicting U.S. forces from their biggest base in the Pacific, the Philippines is in talks with the Obama administration about expanding the American military presence in the island nation, the latest in a series of strategic moves aimed at China.

Financial Times:

• Meddle With The Market At Your Peril by Alan Greenspan. Income inequality reflects globalization.
  

Telegraph:

• As Soros Says, Things Could Be Worse For The UK: We Could Be In The Euro.
• UK Heading For First Double-Dip Recession Since 1975. Britain is heading for its first double-dip recession in 37 years after the economy slumped in the final quarter of 2011 and officials warned of a new threat to jobs.
• Angela Merkel Defiant as IMF Leads Attack on Germany. German Chancellor Angela Merkel has defied calls for a radical shift in strategy to lift Europe out of crisis but is increasingly isolated as the International Monetary Fund and key global bodies join ranks to force her hand.

The Guardian:

• Angela Merkel Casts Doubt On Saving Greece From Financial Meltdown. German chancellor speaks candidly to the Guardian and five other leading European newspapers as part of a unique collaboration to explore the EU's predicament. Angela Merkel has cast doubt for the first time on Europe's chances of saving Greece from financial meltdown and sovereign default, conceding that Europe's first ever multibillion euro bailout coupled with savage austerity was not working after a two-year crisis that has brought the single currency to the brink of unravelling.

Evening Recommendations

• None of note

Night Trading

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.50% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 185.50 -5.5 basis points.
  
• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 149.25 +.5 basis point.
• FTSE-100 futures +.59%.
  
• S&P 500 futures -.06%.
  
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.10%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• (CL)/1.29
• (ABC)/.63
• (ETN)/1.12
• (QSII)/.37
• (AN)/.49
• (MWW)/.11
• (NUE)/.27
• (ESI)/2.31
• (RTN)/1.34
• (UA)/.60
• (ZMH)/1.34
• (BMY)/.55
• (MMM)/1.30
• (CAT)/1.73
• (LMT)/1.95
• (T)/.43
• (MXIM)/.32
• (RHI)/.31
• (SBUX)/.39
• (KLAC)/.65
• (RVBD)/.24
• (RYL)/.09
• (JNPR)/.28
• (JBHT)/.58
• (WMS)/.30
• (CB)/1.60
• (DV)/1.00
• (BAX)/1.17
• (CRR)/1.70

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST

• The Chicago Fed National Activity Index for Dec. is estimated to rise to -.10 versus -.37 in November.
• Durable Goods Orders for December are estimated to rise +2.0% versus a +3.8% gain in November.
• Durables Ex Transports for December are estimated to rise +.9% versus a +.3% gain in November.
• Cap Goods Orders Non-def Ex Air for December are estimated to rise +1.0% versus a -1.2% decline in November.
• Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to rise to 370K versus 352K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims are estimated at 3500K versus 3432K prior.

10:00 am EST

• Leading Indicators for December are estimated to rise +.7% versus a +.5% gain in November.
• New Home Sales for December are estimated to rise to 321K versus 315K in November.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index for January, 7Y T-Note Auction, weekly EIA natural gas inventory data, (MOH) Investor Day and the weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index could also impact trading today.
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Euro Bounce, Dovish Fed Commentary, Earnings Optimism, Short-Covering

Broad Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  
• Sector Performance: Mixed
  
• Volume: Below Average
  
• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• VIX 18.35 +2.96%
  
• ISE Sentiment Index 123.0 +108.47%
  
• Total Put/Call .75 -27.88%
  
• NYSE Arms .99 -7.06%
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 104.21 unch.
  
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 196.87 +1.48%
  
• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 337.50 +.43%
  
• Emerging Market CDS Index 276.86 -1.97%
  
• 2-Year Swap Spread 33.0 -2 bps
  
• TED Spread 52.0 -1 bp
  
• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -74.0 +2 basis points
  

Economic Gauges:

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .03% -1 bp
  
• Yield Curve 182.0 unch.
  
• China Import Iron Ore Spot $139.80/Metric Tonne unch.
  
• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 69.90 -.7 point
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.11 +4 bps
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei Futures: Indicating -9 open in Japan
• DAX Futures: Indicating +34 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my Technology, Biotech and Medical sector longs
  
• Disclosed Trades: Covered all of my (IWM), (QQQ) hedges, then added some back
  
• Market Exposure: 75% Net Long

BOTTOM LINE: Today's overall market action is bullish, as the S&P 500 trades near session highs, building on recent gains, despite rising eurozone debt angst, rising energy prices, uninspiring Fed commentary and profit-taking. On the positive side, Coal, Ag, Medical, Biotech, Construction, Homebuilding, Gaming, Road & Rail and Airline shares are especially strong, rising more than +1.5%. "Growth" stocks are substantially outperforming "value" shares. Copper is rising +.98%, the UBS-Bloomberg Ag Spot Index is down -.28% and Lumber is gaining +1.74%. Despite today's +.55% gain, oil continues to trade poorly given the recent uptick in saber-rattling from Iran, escalating violence in Nigeria, better US economic data and euro bounce. The Ireland sovereign cds is falling - 3.72% to 634.0 bps. On the negative side, Paper, Internet, HMO, I-Banking, Networking and Defense shares are lower on the day. Gold is soaring +2.75%. The Portugal sovereign cds is up +2.0% to 1,313.33 bps(+25% in 9 days to new record high) and the Italy sovereign cds is rising +1.62% to 440.83 bps . The Italian/German 10Y Yield Spread is rising +2.67% to 428.64 bps. The weekly MBA Purchase Applications Index fell -5.4% this week and is still in the same range as it has been trapped in since May 2010. Lumber has declined -12.3% since its Dec. 29th high and is still near the lower end of its recent range, near a multi-year low, despite the better US economic data, improving sentiment towards homebuilders, stock rally and decline in eurozone debt angst. Moreover, the Baltic Dry Index has plunged over -60.0% from its Oct. 14th high and is now down over -50.0% ytd. The 10Y T-Note Yield is falling -7 bps to 1.99%, which remains a large concern considering the recent stock rally and improvement in US economic data. The Western Europe Sovereign CDS Index is still near its Jan. 9th all-time high. The TED spread is near the highest since May 2009. The 2Y Euro Swap Spread is near the highest since Nov. 2008. The 3M Euribor-OIS spread is near the highest since February 2009. The Libor-OIS spread is still very near the widest since May 2009, which is also noteworthy considering the equity surge off the recent lows. Overall, while improving, European credit gauges are still at stressed levels. China Iron Ore Spot has plunged -22.8% since Sept. 7th of last year. Shanghai Copper Inventories are up over 300.0% ytd to the highest level since March of last year. European shares were about -.50% lower on the day with the Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services Index falling -.16%. European equities continue to price in a pause in the debt crisis and a stabilization in economic growth. While the "debt crisis can" appears to have been kicked again, economic growth is likely to contract further in the region over the coming months as more austerity measures take hold. Investors are cheering the Fed's dovish commentary today as they continue to exude weakness in the face of a meaningful improvement in US economic data. While weak dollar policies are usually short-term bullish for stocks/commodities, I continue to believe that they are extremely destructive to the long-term health of the US economy/stock market. The S&P 500's technical condition should lead to further gains after a brief pause. For a sustainable equity advance from current levels, I would still expect to see further European credit gauge improvement, subsiding hard-landing fears in key emerging markets, a rising 10-year yield, better volume, stable-to-lower energy prices and higher-quality stock market leadership. One of my longs, (AAPL), is surging +6.2% to an all-time high after blow-out earnings and an unusual guidance raise. The shares are very extended short-term. However, I still expect significant market outperformance in the stock over the intermediate-term. As I said when it was initially released, the iPad is Apple’s Trojan horse into the enterprise. I still think the analyst community underestimates the implications of this massive opportunity over the longer-term. I expect US stocks to trade modestly higher into the close from current levels on a bounce in the euro, earnings optimism, dovish Fed commentary and short-covering.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Germany Backs ECB's Opposition to Taking Loss on Greek Debt. A senior member of Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government rejected suggestions that the European Central Bank take losses on its Greek debt holdings, backing the ECB in a dispute with the International Monetary Fund. “I can’t imagine that European politicians would allow third parties to make such an indecent claim on our central bank,” Michael Meister, the deputy floor leader for Merkel’s Christian Democrats and the party’s ranking finance spokesman, said today in an interview. “That contradicts our philosophy.” While the ECB faces pressure to join private-sector investors in accepting losses on Greek debt, the central bank sees any participation as risking damaging confidence in the institution, two people familiar with the Governing Council’s stance said. The debt was acquired for monetary policy purposes and the ECB is firmly opposed to any restructuring, they said on condition of anonymity because the matter is confidential. Christine Lagarde, a former French finance minister who is the IMF’s managing director, told reporters in Paris today that European governments and other public holders of Greek debt may have to increase support if private creditors don’t go far enough. Talks on a Greek debt swap that must be resolved to free up more aid for the debt-wracked nation have yet to be concluded. “The risk is that by putting the ECB on board, as the IMF asks, this could result in debt-swap negotiations restarting from scratch, which could mean additional delay to an already over-stretched timetable,” said Thomas Costerg, an economist at Standard Chartered Bank in London.
  
• Spanish Cleanup Plan May Backfire on Banking System: Euro Credit. Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy's proposal to force banks to recognize further losses from real estate holdings may backfire by saddling healthy lenders with the bill. "The plan is for a massive effort in provisioning of real estate and consolidation, and that has to be paid for," said Daragh Quinn, a Madrid-based analyst at Nomura International. By refusing to use public funds to help purge a system burdened with 176 billion euros ($228 billion) of what the Bank of Spain calls "troubled" assets linked to real estate, Rajoy may not do the job properly or he may hurt solvent banks by leaving them with the costs, said David Moss, director of European equities at F&C Investments in London.
• Sovereign, Corporate Bond Risk Rises in Europe, Debt Swaps Show. The cost of insuring against default on European sovereign and corporate debt rose, according to traders of credit-default swaps. The Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe Index of swaps on 15 governments rose two basis points to 331 at 11 a.m. in London. Contracts on the Markit iTraxx Crossover Index of 50 companies with mostly high-yield credit ratings climbed seven basis points to 643, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. The Markit iTraxx Europe Index of 125 companies with investment-grade ratings rose 1.5 basis points to 151.25 basis points. The Markit iTraxx Financial Index linked to senior debt of 25 banks and insurers increased 8.5 basis points to 234 and the subordinated index rose nine to 414.
• Nebraska's Governor Plans to Urge Obama to Proceed With Keystone. Nebraska Governor Dave Heineman said he will urge President Barack Obama to reverse his decision denying a permit for TransCanada Corp.’s Keystone XL pipeline and let construction begin in segments in U.S. border states.
• Thousands of Egyptians Rally to Mark Anniversary of Uprising. Tens of thousands of Egyptians poured into the capital’s Tahrir Square, many to protest against the ruling generals, others to celebrate the anniversary of the start of the uprising that ended Hosni Mubarak’s rule. “I took part in the revolution a year ago and had high hopes that change would be swift,” said Ahmed al-Keelani, a 41- year-old hotel worker who came with his wife and two daughters to Tahrir Square. “Instead, we got stuck in a drawn-out plan that kept the military council in power.”
• Crude Oil Increases After Fed Says Interest Rate Will Stay Low Until 2014. Oil rose as Federal Reserve officials said the U.S. benchmark interest rate will stay low until at least 2014 and the Energy Department reported that U.S. fuel demand increased last week. Futures advanced above $100 a barrel after the Federal Open Market Committee extended its previous pledge to keep rates low at least until the middle of 2013.
• Gold Futures Jump Most in Three Weeks on Fed's Interest-Rate Announcement. Gold climbed the most in three weeks after the Federal Reserve said it sees “exceptionally low” interest rates through at least late 2014. Silver, platinum and palladium also advanced. “The Committee expects to maintain a highly accommodative stance for monetary policy,” the Federal Open Market Committee said in a statement in Washington today. “Economic conditions - - including low rates of resource utilization and a subdued outlook for inflation over the medium run -- are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate at least through late 2014.” “We saw an immediate reaction in gold,” said Michael A. Gayed, the chief investment strategist who helps oversee $150 million at New York-based Pension Partners LLC in a telephone interview. “People are betting that at some point the economy will face inflationary pressures because of the low interest rate.” Gold futures for February delivery climbed 2 percent to $1,700.80 an ounce at 1:18 p.m. on the Comex in New York. Earlier, prices had dropped as much as 0.9 percent.
• Contracts to Purchase Existing U.S. Homes Hold Near 19-Month High: Economy. The number of Americans signing contracts to buy previously owned homes in December held near a 19-month high, showing the stabilization in the market that began in late 2011 will extend into the new year. The index of pending home sales decreased 3.5 percent last month after jumping a combined 18 percent in October and November, figures from the National Association of Realtors showed today in Washington. It was the best back-to-back reading since a buyer tax credit boosted demand in early 2010.

Wall Street Journal:

• India to Stop Weekly Release of Inflation Data.
• Fed On Hold Suggests How Fragile Economy Really Is.
  

CNBC.com:

• Hedge Funds Scramble to Unload Greek Debt.
• Fed Sees Slower Growth But Offers No Hint Of More Easing. The Federal Reserve, ending a two-day policy meeting on Wednesday, repeated its view that the economy faces "significant downside risks'' but it offered little to suggest it was close to launching another round of bond-buying to prop up growth.
• GE(GE) Now Part of Dogs of the Dow. The Dogs of the Dow – those high-yielding stocks that are supposed to represent the bottom of the blue-chip barrel – have some unlikely company. General Electric once stood as the bellwether of American industry but now sits among the 10 Dow stocks that produce the highest yield and, theoretically at least, represent the most risk for investors.
• Printing Money to Lead to 'Uglier' End-Game: Rogoff. The euro zone is nowhere near finding a solution to the debt crisis plaguing it and needs deep restructuring as well as a new constitution as part of an effective long-term remedy as printing money will not solve its problems, Kenneth Rogoff, Professor at Harvard University told CNBC on Wednesday.

Business Insider:

• The Next 17 Big Companies That Are At Risk Of Bankruptcy.
• A New Legal Interpretation May Require You To Pay Taxes On Frequent Flier Miles.
• David Einhorn's Greenlight Capital Fined $11 Million For Insider Trading.
• Facts About Apple's(AAPL) Business That Will Blow Your Mind.
• Chart of the Day: Why is the Baltic Dry Index Getting Crushed?
  

Zero Hedge:

• Less Than 2 Months Ahead Of The Greek D-Day, Rogoff Says "Europe Is Clearly Not Ready For A Greek Default". (video)
• Where Are The Emerging Markets Risk Bombs?
• Fed Slashes Growth Outlook, Six Fed Officials Do Not See Rate Hike Until 2015.
• Spain Is Now Officially Europe's Broke(n) Gramophone.
  

Cult of Mac:

• Foxconn Employee Says 4-Inch iPhone 5 Will Be Released This Summer.
  

forexlive:

• Portugal CDS Hits New Record Amid Ongoing Greek Tensions. The cost to insure Portuguese debt against default climbed to another new record on Wednesday as worries over Greece’s delayed debt restructuring continued to increase market pressure on Lisbon. Portugal’s 5-year credit default swaps rose above the 1300-level for the first time, climbing 31 basis points to 1,310. That level is about the same where Greek CDS were quoted last spring. In the bond market, yields on 10-year Portuguese government debt climbed by 43 basis points to 14.62%. Investors worry that Portugal could be next in line for a second bailout and that the haircuts in Greece now being forced on private creditors by official lenders could be repeated for Portuguese debt. “Just the way we are now talking about private sector involvement in a second bailout for Greece, the fear is we could soon be talking about the same thing for Portugal,” said Chris Scicluna, an economist at Daiwa Capital Markets in London.

Gallup:

• Obama Job Approval: 43% Approve, 49% Disapprove. (graph)

Reuters:

• German EconMin Plans Death of Solar Industry - Bosch. A plan to cap solar panel installation at 1,000 megawatts (MW) annually proposed by Germany's economy minister would spell the end for the domestic solar energy industry, German manufacturer Bosch said late on Tuesday. "Should we do that, then photovoltaic is dead in Germany," Bosch Chief Executive Franz Fehrenbach told reporters in Stuttgart. New solar installations reached a record 7.5 gigawatts (GW) in Germany in 2011, playing into the hands of advocates for steeper cuts in tariff subsidies and forcing industry execs to support some form of reduction in state aid that they hope will only be mild.

Telegraph:

• Unemployment to Soar as UK Heads Back into Recession. Unemployment is set to soar again as businesses start cutting jobs alongside public sector retrenchment as the country heads back into recession.
• Debt Crisis: Live.
  

Borsen:

• Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers said at a conference in Copenhagen that Europe could be harming a recovery by betting on consolidating public finances to resolve its economic crisis. "You're risking making the serious situation worse if fiscal consolidation is the primary focus to solve the crisis," Summers said. The current policy response will only lead to a "collective stagnation," he said.
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value (-.10%)

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Networking -1.50% 2) Internet -.75% 3) I-Banks -.35%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

• GLW, WLP, HES, APKT, SAPE, NVS, GOOG, ABT, E, MRCY, BVSN, LCRY, WRLD, TWIN, MOLX, SLAB, UMBF, TRMK, MFLX, SKYW, QCOR, SEIC, SLGN, PJC, RKT, BKI, PX, GWW, ONB, WPZ, UGI, HES, ATI, MSI, RES and FIO
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) ILMN 2) S 3) PSS 4) FXY 5) CTXS
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) BHI 2) NVDA 3) RBCN 4) MRCY 5) BK
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume
  

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.59%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Airlines +2.70% 2) Biotech +1.59% 3) Medical Equipment +1.09%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• ILMN, NUVA, AAPL, GPRO, STJ, EFII, TTM, CA, LIFE, ALKS, CPHD, DNDN, QGEN, TXT, LGF, TPX, TSS, BMS, DAL, SWFT, PVTB, MCP, CLR, UAL, SYK, TEX and ALKS
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) ILMN 2) NVS 3) CA 4) WNR 5) ZNGA
  

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) AAPL 2) MDR 3) DGX 4) PX 5) SBUX
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume
  

Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Merkel Becomes Master of Markets With Euro Austerity Mollifying Investors. German Chancellor Angela Merkel has declared a truce in her campaign to master financial markets. Merkel, who began the euro crisis seeing politicians and investors locked in a battle for supremacy, is now using markets’ judgments to support her calls for austerity to rescue the single currency. At the same time, she backed off from her demand that bondholders contribute to bailouts. The shift underscores Merkel’s journey from scientist to dominant crisis manager amid unprecedented economic and financial turmoil that has thrust her to the fore of Europe’s policy response. Delivering the opening speech today at the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland, she’ll be addressing critics who say her conversion may be too late to stop woes from splintering the 17-nation euro.
• Spanish Cleanup Plan May Backfire on Banking System: Euro Credit. Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy's proposal to force banks to recognize further losses from real estate holdings may backfire by saddling healthy lenders with the bill. "The plan is for a massive effort in provisioning of real estate and consolidation, and that has to be paid for," said Daragh Quinn, a Madrid-based analyst at Nomura International. By refusing to use public funds to help purge a system burdened with $228 billion of what the Bank of Spain calls "troubled" assets linked to real estate, Rajoy may not do the job properly or he may hurt solvent banks by leaving them with teh costs, said David Moss, director of European equities at F&C Investments in London.
  
• Greek Economy on Track to Implode, Hanke of Johns Hopkins Says. Whether or not Greece is able to reach an agreement on the restructuring of its debt, the country is set to "implode" as the economy contracts, according to Johns Hopkins University's Steve Hanke. "The game is completely over," Hanke, professor of applied economics, said at the Bloomberg Sovereign Debt Crisis Conference in New York hosted by Bloomberg Link. "All the calculations are nonsense and have been since day one. Since the crisis began the money supply has been shrinking and the economy is going to implode, no matter what they do in the short run." Money supply is shrinking at an annual rate of about 16 percent in Greece, meaning there won't be growth needed to support debt payments, Hanke said. Greece is pursuing talks on a debt swap with private creditors that would lower Greece's debt to 120 percent of gross domestic product by 2020. European governments have sought to fill a deeper-than-expected gap in Greece's finances by having investors accept a lower interest rate on exchanged bonds. The International Monetary Fund cut its forecast for global growth today and warned that the European debt crisis threatens to derail the world economy. The fund, in an update of its World Economic Outlook report, lowered its estimate for global growth this year to 3.3 percent from a September forecast of 4 percent.
• Obama Claiming Credit for Energy Gains Angers Industry. President Barack Obama is taking credit for higher U.S. oil and gas production and lower imports, angering industry groups and Republicans who say he is working against domestic energy production. Republicans say the numbers are misleading. Onshore oil and gas production on federal lands directly under Obama’s control is down 40 percent compared to 10 years ago, according to Spencer Pederson, a spokesman for Representative Doc Hastings, a Washington Republican and chairman of the House Natural Resources Committee. In 2010, the U.S. signed the fewest number of offshore drilling leases since 1984.
• Japan Exports Fall for Third Month as Global Demand Slows. Japan’s exports fell for the third consecutive month in December, capping the first annual trade deficit in 31 years, figures underscoring the toll slower global growth and March’s earthquake have taken on the economy. Shipments dropped 8 percent in December from a year earlier, the Ministry of Finance said today in Tokyo. In addition to the export slump, higher energy needs in the aftermath of the the nuclear accident in Fukushima increased energy imports, resulting in an annual deficit of 2.49 trillion yen ($32 billion), the report showed. A yen near postwar highs against the dollar is cutting into profits of exporters from Nippon Steel Corp. to Toyota Corp. by making Japanese products more expensive abroad, hampering the nation’s rebound from March’s temblor. The first annual trade deficit since 1980 shows how exports are weakening, robbing the economy of what has traditionally been its main driver of growth. “The decline in exports is directly related to slow GDP growth in Japan,” Masayuki Kichikawa, chief economist at Merrill Lynch Japan Securities Co., said in Tokyo before the report. “The European crisis is reflected in weak demand from China, which directly affects the triangular trade relationship between Asia, Japan, and Europe.”
• Common Chemicals in Products May Harm Kids' Immune Systems. Chemicals used in consumer products, including rain gear, stain-resistant carpeting, microwave popcorn bags and fast-food packaging, appear to limit children’s disease-fighting immune responses, a study found. The research by Danish investigators, is one of the first to examine the effects of perfluorinated compounds, or PFCs, on the immune system. It showed that children with the highest levels in their blood had the weakest responses to childhood vaccines. Higher chemical exposure also led to less infection- fighting antibodies to keep disease at bay, the study reported.

Wall Street Journal:

• Obama Makes Populist Pitch. President Barack Obama offered Americans a sharply populist economic vision in his State of the Union address Tuesday, seeking to draw a contrast with his eventual Republican rival and demonstrating the widening policy gulf between the two political parties.
• The State of His Policies. Obama has done nearly everything he wanted. That's the problem.
• Fortress(FIG) Chief Daniel Mudd Resigns Amid SEC Suit. Fortress Investment Group LLC said Chief Executive Daniel Mudd resigned from the hedge-fund company and its board Tuesday, little more than a month after regulators sued him over alleged civil securities fraud. Mr. Mudd had taken a leave of absence from Fortress in December, days after the Securities and Exchange Commission named him as a defendant in connection with his role as CEO of government-backed mortgage company Fannie Mae.

Fox News:

• Debt Ceiling to Rise by Week's End. By week's end, the nation's debt ceiling will be increased by $1.2 trillion to $16.4 trillion, as the Senate is expected to vote down a symbolic resolution objecting to the hike. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., with little fanfare, set up a Thursday NOON vote on the House-passed measure, which expresses opposition to raising the U.S. government's borrowing limit.
  

MarketWatch:

• Yahoo(YHOO) Earnings Drop 5% as Sales Wane. Yahoo Inc. on Tuesday reported a fiscal fourth-quarter profit that fell by 5% from the year-ago period, with sales also down for the Internet company that is in the middle of an ongoing turnaround effort.

Business Insider:

• Here Is the Full Text Of Mitch Daniels' Republican Response To The State Of The Union.
• Legendary Credit Guru Edward Altman Unveils His 2012 Outlook For Corporate And Sovereign Defaults.
• All of Late Year's FOMC Dissenters Lost Their Voting Rights.
• iPads Are Outselling Desktop PCs, And Are Now Equal To 17% Of The PC Market.
  
• Key Takeaways From Apple's(AAPL) Monster Earnings.
  

Zero Hedge:

• Sorry Folks, Europe Is Not Fine... Not Even Close.

CNBC:

• A Loophole Poses Risks to Investors in Chinese Companies.

IBD:

• SXC Health(SXCI) Benefits From Turmoil In PBM Industry.

NY Times:

• In Europe, a Conflict Over Bank Capital. Europe’s banks and regulators are at odds about how financial institutions should increase their capital reserves.

McClatchy:

• Warren Buffett, Champion of Bank Bailout, Is Also Leading Beneficiary. (April 5, 2009) Billionaire investor Warren Buffett has been lauded for his plainspoken denunciation of the greed and foolishness behind the economic crisis. He's pushed the massive federal bailout of imploding banks as the essential response to an "economic Pearl Harbor." A Sacramento Bee examination of regulatory records has found that his extensive holdings in financial firms have made Buffett, the world's second-wealthiest person behind Microsoft Chairman Bill Gates, one of the top beneficiaries of the banking bailout. Just 28 companies received more than 90 percent of the funds so far disbursed to financial firms by the $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program. Buffett's company, Berkshire Hathaway, hasn't received any of that federal aid, but Berkshire, based in Omaha, Neb., owns stock valued at more than $13 billion in the top recipients of TARP funds, including Goldman Sachs Group, US Bancorp, American Express and Bank of America, which analysts all thought were in deep trouble before TARP was approved in October. That total, The Bee found, ranks Berkshire fifth among all investors in TARP-assisted companies. Berkshire's TARP holdings constitute 30 percent of its publicly disclosed stock portfolio, and that proportion reflects at least twice as much dependence on bailed-out banks as any other large investor. Berkshire, for instance, is the largest shareholder in San Francisco-based Wells Fargo, which got $25 billion — 91 percent of the TARP funds invested in institutions headquartered in California. Buffett increased his bank holdings in September, while he was arguing in the media that Congress should approve the bailout to prevent the collapse of the global financial system.
  
  Read more here: http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2009/04/05/65496/buffett-champion-of-bailout-is.html#storylink=cpy
  
  Read more here: http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2009/04/05/65496/buffett-champion-of-bailout-is.html#storylink=cpy

The Hill:

• Obama Speech Steers Clear of Keystone Pipeline Rejection, Solyndra Failure. President Obama made no mention in his State of the Union address Tuesday of his decision to reject the Keystone XL oil sands pipeline or the federal loan guarantee to failed solar firm Solyndra.



Gallup:

• Egyptians Shifted to Islamist Parties as Elections Neared.

Reuters:

• Roche offering to buy Illumina(ILMN) for about $5.7 bln. Swiss drugmaker Roche Holding AG said it is offering about $5.7 billion in cash to buy U.S. gene sequencing device maker Illumina Inc, in what could potentially become a hostile takeover bid. Roche said it would offer to acquire all shares of Illumina for $44.50 per share in cash, an 18 percent premium to Illumina's Tuesday close price of $37.68 on the Nasdaq.
• Altera(ALTR), sees weak wireless market, shares slip. Altera Corp forecast weak first-quarter revenue on soft demand in its biggest markets, underscoring concerns about a shaky rebound in the semiconductor industry. The programmable chipmaker said it sees first-quarter revenue declining 5 percent to 9 percent sequentially on weakness in its wireless and military segments.
• CA(CA) ups FY outlook, boosts dividend; shares jump. Business software maker CA Inc posted quarterly results above Wall Street estimates on stronger subscription revenue, raised its full-year outlook and boosted its annual dividend, sending its shares up 18 percent in extended trading.
• EU to clamp down on derivatives trading. The European Union came a step closer to overhauling regulations for the $700 trillion derivatives market on Tuesday, one of the most opaque sectors in finance.

Financial Times:

• US Treasury Failed to Cap Rewards at Bailed-Out Groups. The US Treasury Department failed to rein in excessive compensation for executives at bailed-out companies including AIG, despite a White House pledge to cap pay-outs, a federal audit has determined. Since President Barack Obama promised in February 2009 to cap salaries at $500,000 and limit additional compensation to "stock that can’t be paid up until taxpayers are paid back for their assistance", the Treasury has approved pay packages of $5m or more for 49 executives, according to the Special Inspector General for the Troubled asset relief programme.
• ECB Under Pressure Over Greek Bond Hit. The International Monetary Fund has turned up pressure on European officials to take on more of the burden of filling a widening gap in Greece’s budget by pressing the European Central Bank to take a hit on its €40bn in Greek bond holdings, eurozone officials said.

Telegraph:

• Hedge Fund and Private Equity Pay Targeted by FSA. The Financial Services Authority has launched a consultation on regulations for hedge funds and private equity firms that will form the basis for tough new rules on pay.
• George Soros Predicts Class War and Riots. George Soros, the billionaire investor, has predicted riots on the streets and global class war as the economic downturn results in a new "age of fallibility".
• Davos 2012: Confidence Among Europe's Business Leaders Crumbles. Confidence among European chief executives has crumbled, with just one in four now expecting to see revenue growth in 2012.

Stuttgarter Zeitung:

• German Economy Minister Philipp Roesler opposes combining Europe's two rescue funds, saying the existing instruments are sufficient, citing an interview. "Rescue packages that get bigger and bigger aren't the correct means of stemming the crisis," Roesler said.

Globe and Mail:

• Global Regulator Proposes Standards To Allow Bank Comparisons. Investors and regulators faced a near impossible challenge during the financial crisis trying to compare the health of banks in one country to their counterparts in another – a problem global regulators are now attempting to fix. The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, which is responsible for drawing up new rules that will affect the world’s largest financial institutions, is proposing a set of standards that would create a universal method for reporting capital levels at banks around the globe.

Evening Recommendations
Citigroup Global Markets:

• Reiterated Buy on (ALB), raised target to $74.
• Reiterated (BUY) on (SHOO), target $45.

Night Trading

• Asian equity indices are -.50% to +1.0% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 191.0 +2.0 basis points.
  
• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 149.75 +.75 basis point.
• FTSE-100 futures +.43%.
  
• S&P 500 futures +.31%.
  
• NASDAQ 100 futures +1.03%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• (UTX)/1.46
• (PJC)/.18
• (GLW)/.32
• (PX)/1.37
• (ABT)/1.44
• (ROK)/1.21
• (ADP)/.68
• (WLP)/1.11
• (BA)/1.00
• (STJ)/.84
• (COP)/1.80
• (CVD)/.73
• (NFLX)/.54
• (CTXS)/.76
• (SWK)/1.29
• (JEC)/.70
• (OI)/.46
• (SYMC)/.41
• (CCI)/.17
• (SNDK)/1.26
• (GD)/1.99
• (LCC)/.03
• (MUR)/1.41
• (LRCX)/.30
• (HES)/1.26
• (DELL)/.38
• (MSTR)/.92

Economic Releases
10:00 am EST

• The Home Price Index for November is estimated unch. versus a -.2% decline in October.
• Pending Home Sales for December are estimated to fall -1.0% versus a +7.3% gain in November.

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory build of +1,450,000 barrels versus a -3,438,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -125,000 barrels versus a +438,000 barrel gain the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to rise by 2,000,000 barrels versus a +3,717,000 barrel gain the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to fall by -.6% versus a -1.9% decline the prior week.
  

12:30 am EST

• The FOMC is expected to leave the benchmark fed funds rate at .25%.

Upcoming Splits

• (COG) 2-for-1
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Germany 30Y Bond Auction, 5Y T-Note Auction, World Economic Forum Meeting and the weekly MBA mortgage applications report could also impact trading today.
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to maintain gains into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.