Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -1.20%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Coal -3.30% 2) Oil Service -2.30% 3) Alt Energy -2.30%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

• SNP, ADBE, RIO, PTR, BMA, DLLR, MYGN, XXIA, ANGI, HMIN, JOBS, PANL, ZEUS, ITMN, SCHN, PKT, BMRN, ECHO, HEES, ZION, DNP, WF, JOY, HTS, RGP, CMI, DOLE and OSG
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) ADBE 2) JEF 3) XLI 4) FMCN 5) TIF
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) CA 2) VECO 3) FFIV 4) ABVT 5) NBL
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume
  

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Value -.30%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) I-Banks +.59% 2) Retail +.29% 3) Utilities +.09%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• FXCM, AMRN, NTAP, TIF, WMB and POT
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) BKS 2) TEF 3) ADBE 4) PXP 5) ARUN
  

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) LMT 2) CAT 3) ADBE 4) BA 5) DO
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume
  

Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:

• Greece's Third Bailout Seen in Debt With Junk Grade: Euro Credit. Greece's bonds and credit ratings are factoring in a third bailout for the nation that analysts and investors say will require greater concessions from its international creditors.
  
• S&P May Downgrade Almost All U.S. CDOs Backed by Structured Debt. Standard & Poor’s said it may lower almost all of the ratings it has assigned to U.S. collateralized debt obligations backed by structured-finance securities after a change in its methodology for grading the debt. The bonds under review had $63 billion of balances at issuance, New York-based S&P said today in a statement. These types of CDOs, which package assets such as mortgage bonds into securities with varying risks, helped spark the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression as some slices with AAA grades lost all of their value within a year.
• Buffett Message Is 'Do as I Say, Not as I Do': Alice Schroeder. The last few years have been a struggle for investors in Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK/B) Since the March 2009 market low, the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index has risen 80 percent compared with 44 percent for Berkshire, even though crashing stock prices and unprecedented volatility perfectly suited Warren Buffett’s investing style.
• Australia Passes 30% Tax on Iron-Ore, Coal Mining Profits. Australia passed legislation that will reap about $11 billion in taxes within three years from BHP Billiton Ltd. (BHP), Rio Tinto Group and other iron-ore and coal miners as the government seeks to turn its budget to surplus. Prime Minister Julia Gillard’s Minerals Resource Rent Tax was passed in the upper house yesterday and will become law on July 1 after receiving backing from the ruling Labor party and the Greens, who hold the balance of power in the Senate.
• Banks May Be Skirting Oversight in Muni Bond Sales, SEC Says. Wall Street banks may not be exercising adequate oversight of state and local government bond sales, the Securities and Exchange Commission said, warning investors about risks in the $3.7 trillion municipal market. Reviews of underwriters showed that some may not be sufficiently examining bond documents for evidence of fraud, the agency’s Office of Compliance Inspections and Examinations said today. Banks are required to review bond documents to guard against false statements and can face sanctions if they don’t. “To protect investors, it is important that broker-dealers perform adequate due diligence to assess the financial and operational condition of states and municipalities before selling their securities,” Carlo di Florio, the director of the compliance office, said in a statement.
• Disney(DIS) Sees $200 Million Loss From 'John Carter' Picture. Walt Disney Co. (DIS), the world’s largest entertainment company, said the box-office flop “John Carter” will post a loss of about $200 million, one of the biggest ever for a single film. The film division will report a fiscal second-quarter operating loss of $80 million to $120 million as result of the picture, Burbank, California-based Disney said today in an e- mailed statement.
• GE Capital Rating May Be Cut Below Parent as Moody's Sees Risk. General Electric Co.’s (GE) financial unit may be given a lower debt rating than the parent company because of higher risk, Moody’s Investor Services said. The Aa2 ratings of both Fairfield, Connecticut-based GE and General Electric Capital Corp. (GELK) are both on review for possible downgrade and may “no longer be equalized,” Moody’s said today in a statement. “The review is based on Moody’s view that finance companies have higher risks than previously considered, implying a wider gap between the risk profiles of GECC and GE’s industrial businesses,” according to the statement.
• Facebook(FB) Said to Plan Paying 1.1% Feed to Banks. Facebook Inc. (FB), the social- networking website seeking to raise $5 billion in an initial public offering, will pay underwriters a 1.1 percent fee, two people with knowledge of the company’s plans said. The fee will be shared among Facebook’s underwriters, said the people, who asked not to be named because the details are private. Facebook has hired 31 banks to manage the IPO, including Morgan Stanley (MS) as lead underwriter. The lead bank typically earns a bigger cut of the total. At 1.1 percent, the company will be paying its banks one- fifth the typical rate for IPOs. Underwriters were paid an average of 5.48 percent in 127 offerings last year, Bloomberg data show.
• Shanghai Bonded Copper Stocks Gain to 530,000 Tons, Survey Shows. Copper inventories at bonded warehouses in Shanghai climbed to 530,000 metric tons last week, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of seven traders and analysts. This companies with about 200,000 tons in the fourth quarter, according to Qu Yi, an analyst at CRU International Ltd. "Tepid demand at the world's largest user failed to absorb the imports," said Fang Junfeng, an analyst at Shanghai CIFCO Futures Co. "If you look at the sustained cash discount, you'd know how bad the consumption is at a time when we're supposed to see a seasonal pickup." The metal for immediate delivery on Shanghai's Changjiang Nonferrous Metals Market was quoted at a discount of about 250 yuan($40) to the front-month futures contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchanged yesterday. SHFE inventories were at 227,276 tons last week, almost four times as many as the beginning of December. Unwrought copper imports by China were the second-highest level ever in February, as arrivals of the refined metal, copper alloy and products totaled 484,569 tons, data from the General Administration of Customs showed.
• Mercedes Record 25% Discount Tops Shrinking China Margins. There has never been a better time to buy a Mercedes-Benz in China (CNVSTTL). The problem for luxury carmakers such as Daimler AG (DAI) is that the incentives are likely to get even bigger. Mercedes dealers are offering record markdowns of 25 percent on high-end models such as the S300 sedan, according to data stretching back to 2009 at cheshi.com, which tracks prices at more than 3,000 Chinese dealerships. BMW AG (BMW)’s 7-series and Audi AG (NSU)’s A8Ls sell for 20 percent below sticker prices, waiting lists have vanished and salesmen are dangling perks ranging from free iPhones to Hermes-bag coupons. The escalating price competition shows that the case is weakening for luxury cars to fetch higher prices and profit margins in Beijing than in New York and Berlin as supply catches up to demand. The discounts, which began late last year with entry-level models, are spreading to the priciest high-end sedans as the world’s second-largest economy slows and China’s rich find an increasing abundance of vehicles to choose from. “This year’s luxury-car discounting is the most I’ve ever seen,” said Scott Laprise, automotive analyst at CLSA Asia Pacific, who has been based in Beijing for more than five years. “China’s luxury car price premium is eroding.”
• Ship Owners Losing After $11.4 Billion Battle for Boxes: Freight. After a quarter in which companies selling space on container lines doubled rates, the amount the owners of the ships are being paid is the least in two years. Operators, who charter vessels and then charge shippers per container, are demanding $1,379 for a 20-foot box on the China- to-Europe trade route, up 97 percent this year, according to Clarkson Plc (CKN), the largest shipbroker. A measure of how much they’re paying ship owners fell 4.2 percent since the start of January, data from the Hamburg Shipbrokers’ Association show. The gap is growing because operators are leaving vessels idle or hiring fewer ships, driving down how much they pay owners, while restricting supply and boosting box rates.

Wall Street Journal:

• House GOP Budget to Target Tax Rates. House Republicans, seizing on what they hope is a potent campaign issue in the midst of a muddled political and economic landscape, will introduce a 2013 budget Tuesday that cuts tax rates and provides for two individual brackets of 10% and 25%. The budget would end the Alternative Minimum Tax, which was originally aimed at the wealthy but which ensnares a growing number of middle-class taxpayers each year. The plan would nearly eliminate U.S. taxes on American corporations' earnings from overseas operations.
• MBIA(MBI) Abandons Bonus Plan. MBIA Inc. abandoned plans to pay bonuses to top executives for 2011 after objections from New York's top financial regulator, who argued that the bond insurer would not survive without his help, according to people familiar with the situation.
• U.S. Offers Afghan Review of Night Raids on Homes. The Obama administration is offering to cede some control over nighttime missions into Afghan village homes, U.S. officials say, in a bid to ease tensions with Afghan President Hamid Karzai that took on new urgency with the deadly rampage in a Kandahar village last week. The administration's most significant concession on night raids would subject the operations to advance review by Afghan judges, U.S. military officials said. One option under discussion in the U.S.-Afghan talks would require warrants to be issued before operations get the green light.
• Chevron's(CVX) Troubled Waters. Brazilian prosecutors' planned criminal charges against Chevron Corp. executives for an offshore oil leak threatens to stifle foreign companies' drilling plans in this petroleum-rich nation. Brazil will file criminal charges Wednesday against executives from Chevron and drilling-rig operator Transocean Ltd., accusing them of environmental crimes related to an offshore oil spill in November, prosecutor Eduardo Santos de Oliveira said in an interview Monday.
• French School Killings Spark Horror. A manhunt was under way in this southern French city for a lone gunman who opened fire on a Jewish school Monday, killing four people including a father and his two sons, with a weapon used in two similar attacks in recent days.
• Solar-Panel Users Prepare for Tariffs on Chinese Imports. As U.S. trade officials prepare their preliminary decision on a dumping complaint against Chinese solar-panel makers, U.S. panel users are preparing for new tariffs on Chinese imports by lining up new sources of the panels, sometimes at a significant cost.
• ObamaCare's Flawed Economic Foundations. The insurance mandate has almost nothing to remedying costs imposed on the system by those without coverage.

MarketWatch:

• China's Stock-Market Supervision Suffering. Understaffed securities regulator, weak legal system cited.
• $5 Gas Prices Would Tank Consumer: Wilbur Ross. Wilbur Ross, the billionaire private-equity investor known for turning around struggling companies, said Monday he is concerned about the impact of rising gasoline prices on the U.S. economy. “What I am worried about is the following: gas prices have been high and the effect on the consumer has been hidden,” due to the mild winter, Ross told MarketWatch in an interview Monday at the New York Stock Exchange, on the sidelines of an event promoting investment in Ireland. “If we hit $5 at the gas pump over the summer, that would have a profound effect on the consumer,” he said.

Business Insider:

• JEFFERIES: The Collapse Of India's Investment Cycle Is Far From Being Played Out.
• Oprah Winfrey Network Lays Off One-Fifth of Staff.
• One Man's 'Astonishing' Escape From A North Korean Death Camp.

Zero Hedge:

• ABC Reports Russian Troops Have Arrived In Syria, Russia Denies.
• To Bail Or Not To Bail: A Simple Question Of Math; And Why Taxpayers Will Be On The Hook Until The End.

CNBC:

• Small Car Prices Rising. You knew it was only a matter of time until we saw the rotation into small cars putting the squeeze on buyers. In fact, we are now seeing it with both new and used small cars. Across the board, prices for these cars are moving up along with gas prices.

NY Times:

• For LSAT, Sharp Drop in Popularity for Second Year.
  

Washington Post:

• Human Rights Watch Says Abuses Continue In Myanmar Conflict Zone Despite Reforms. It sounds a lot like the old, military-run Myanmar, and not much like the reform-minded new one: A feared army attacking civilians indiscriminately, razing homes and raping women while the government prevents international aid from reaching tens of thousands of displaced survivors.

Forbes:

• The Expanding Wealth of Washington. Throughout the brutal and agonizingly long recession, only one large metropolitan area escaped largely unscathed: Washington, D.C. The city that wreaked economic disasters under two administrations last year grew faster in population than any major region in the country, up a remarkable 2.7 percent. Boom times in the capital — particularly amid a weak recovery elsewhere — are driving this growth. Since 2007, notes Stephen Fuller at George Mason University, the D.C. region’s economy has expanded 14 percent compared with a mere 3 percent for the rest of the country. Washington’s unemployment never scaled over 7 percent, well below the national average, and is now down to around 5.5 percent, about the lowest of any major metropolitan area. Unemployment of course is much higher, reaching 25 percent, in some of the district’s poorer neighborhoods. This prosperity is rooted largely in the steady growth of the federal workforce, as federal spending accounts for one-third of the region’s economy. Over the past decade 50,000 bureaucratic jobs have been added in the area while local federal spending grew 166 percent. The D.C. region, with 5 percent of the nation’s population, garners more than three times that percentage in payroll and more than four times that percentage in procurement dollars.

Rasmussen Reports:

• Daily Presidential Tracking Poll. The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows that 26% of the nation's voters Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as president. Forty-one percent (41%) Strongly Disapprove, giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of -15 (see trends).
• 56% Favor Repeal of Health Care Law, 39% Oppose Repeal. The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely U.S. Voters shows that 56% at least somewhat favor repeal of the health care law, including 46% who Strongly Favor it. Thirty-nine percent (39%) oppose repeal, with 29% who are Strongly Opposed.

USA Today:

• Apple(AAPL) Sells 3 Million New iPads in 3 Days. Apple said it sold 3 million of the new iPad tablet computers over the weekend, setting a company record.

Reuters:

• Vatican Bank Image Hurt as JPMorgan(JPM) Closes Account. JP Morgan Chase is closing the Vatican bank's account with an Italian branch of the U.S. banking giant because of concerns about a lack of transparency at the Holy See's financial institution, Italian newspapers reported.
• Hedge Funds Key Sellers of Treasuries, Report Says. Hedge funds, other large investors sold 78% of their holdings of 2Y Treasuries in the week ended March 13, according to a report by BofA Merrill analyst Mary Ann Bartels.
• Amazon.com(AMZN) to Buy Kiva Systems for $775 Million. Amazon.com Inc said on Monday it agreed to buy Kiva Systems Inc for $775 million in cash, a deal that will bring more robotic technology to the e-commerce company's giant network of warehouses. The acquisition, which has been approved by Kiva's stockholders, is expected to close in the second quarter of 2012, Amazon added in a statement.
• Adobe Revenue Slows Ahead of Upgrades, Shares Fall. Adobe said it expects to post second-quarter revenue of $1.090 billion to $1.140 billion, compared with the average analyst forecast of $1.1 billion. It forecast second-quarter profit, excluding items, of 57 to 61 cents per share, compared to the Street view of 60 cents. Shares of Adobe closed at $34.51 on Nasdaq and fell 4.4 percent to $33.00 in extended trading.
• BHP Billiton(BHP) Sees China Iron Ore Demand Flattening. BHP Billiton, the world's biggest miner, is seeing signs that iron ore demand from top consumer China is flattening but is pushing ahead with its ambitious plans to expand production. "Growth is going to flatten off," BHP's iron ore division president, Ian Ashby said ahead of the Global Iron Ore & Steel Forecast Conference in Perth on Tuesday. Chinese demand for iron ore has been the driving force behind years of expansion work by the world's biggest mining companies. BHP has being pursuing a strategy of running at full production and expanding capacity in long-life, low-cost commodity assets. Ashby said BHP was sticking with its $10 billion iron ore expansion plan and was mining ore at a rate of 165-170 million tonnes per year. That is above its production guidance of 159 million tonnes in fiscal 2012 ending June 30, maintaining the company's No.3 global ranking in iron ore behind Vale and Rio Tinto .
• Monti's Moment of Truth, Facing Trade Unions. Mario Monti will walk into a meeting with Italy's trade union bosses on Tuesday, knowing it can help make, or break, his brief tenure as prime minister - and hopes of dragging the economy out of the mire.
• Michael Kors(KORS) Raises Forecast. Michael Kors Holdings Ltd reported strong retail sales and raised its earnings outlook on Monday, sending the fashion company's shares up 3 percent in after-hours trading.
• Williams(WMB) Buying Infrastructure in Marcellus Shale. Williams Cos Inc struck a $2.5 billion deal to buy a natural gas gathering and processing business in the Marcellus shale, increasing its exposure to the boom in liquids-rich natural gas. Soaring supplies of natural gas in the United States have pushed prices for the fuel to their lowest in a decade. In response, exploration and production companies have increased output of crude oil and natural gas that can be stripped of fuels like propane that fetch higher prices. Williams is buying the Caiman Eastern Midstream business, a unit of privately held Caiman Energy, through its master limited partnership, Williams Partners LP. Williams owns 72 percent of Williams Partners, as well as the partnership's general partner. Williams Partners plans to fund the purchase price of the acquisition with a $1.78 billion in cash and the issuance to Caiman of about 11.8 million Williams Partners common units valued at about $720 million.

Globe and Mail:

• Canadian Bank Regulator Proposes Heightened Scrutiny of Mortgage Market. Canada’s financial regulator is proposing strict rules to tighten lending practices in the housing sector, a move that could cool the red-hot market after months of warnings about rising consumer debt. The new rules would require banks to take a closer look at how much a property is worth before issuing a mortgage – and to know more about the monthly finances of borrowers before the money is doled out.

China Daily:

• China Insurers Put Under Greater Supervision. The heads of China's four leading insurance companies have been brought under high-level supervision by promotion to vice-minister status, from bureau level previously. Personnel appointments at the companies will be supervised by the Organization Department of the Communist Party of China Central Committee instead of the China Insurance Regulatory Commission, the report said.

National Business Daily:

• China will "substantially" raise the threshold for entry into the drug sales business, citing Xie Wei, an official at the food and drug administration of the southwestern Chinese province of Sichuan.

Evening Recommendations
Piper Jaffray:

• Rated Rated (CF) Overweight, target $230.

Night Trading

• Asian equity indices are -.75% to +.50% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 146.50 n/a.
  
• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 110.50 -3.0 basis points.
• FTSE-100 futures -.17%.
  
• S&P 500 futures -.09%.
  
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.05%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• (TIF)/1.41
• (DSW)/.50
• (JEF)/.29
• (ORCL)/.56
• (JBL)/.58
• (CTAS)/.52

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST

• Housing Starts for February are estimated to rise to 700K versus 699K in January.
• Building Permits for February are estimated to rise to 686K versus 676K in January.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Bernanke speaking, Fed's Kocherlakota speaking, Greek bond auction, weekly retail sales reports and the (GAS) analyst day could also impact trading today.
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by commodity and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Euro Bounce, More Financial/Tech Sector Optimism, Short-Covering, Investor Performance Angst

Broad Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  
• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  
• Volume: Below Average
  
• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• VIX 14.80 +2.28%
  
• ISE Sentiment Index 108.0 -28.48%
  
• Total Put/Call .75 unch.
  
• NYSE Arms 1.26 +87.67%
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 86.64 -2.73%
  
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 137.89 -4.50%
  
• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 219.68 -2.29%
  
• Emerging Market CDS Index 215.99 -2.61%
  
• 2-Year Swap Spread 25.25 unch.
  
• TED Spread 39.25 unch.
  
• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -59.75 +.25 bp
  

Economic Gauges:

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .08% unch.
  
• Yield Curve 199.0 +5 bps
  
• China Import Iron Ore Spot $144.70/Metric Tonne unch.
  
• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 33.10 -7.9 points
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.43 +1.5 basis points
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei Futures: Indicating a -29 open in Japan
• DAX Futures: Indicating a +23 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my Tech, Retail and Biotech sector longs
  
• Disclosed Trades: Covered all of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and some of my (EEM) short, then added them back
  
• Market Exposure: 75% Net Long

BOTTOM LINE: Today's overall market action is bullish, as the S&P 500 trades near session highs despite recent gains, rising energy prices, some disappointing US economic data and rising global growth fears. On the positive side, Coal, Oil Tanker, Internet, Networking, I-Banking, Gaming, Computer, Education and Airline shares are especially strong, rising more than +1.0%. Financial and Tech shares are outperforming again. Copper is rising +.7%. The 10Y Yield is rising +8 bps to 2.38%. The Germany sovereign cds is down -2.2% to 67.0 bps, the France sovereign cds is down -5.58% to 155.17 bps, the Italy sovereign cds is down -1.99% to 348.91 bps and the Brazil sovereign cds is down -4.22% to 115.34 bps. Moreover, the European Investment Grade CDS Index is down -5.06% to 98.40 bps. On the negative side, Telecom and Homebuilding shares are under mild pressure, falling more than -.50%. Oil is up +.61%. Major Asian Indices were mostly lower overnight, led down by a -1.1% decline in India. Indian shares had been one of the world's best performers ytd, but have fallen -6.2% in 4 weeks as inflation/growth worries persist. I expect these shares to underperform over the intermediate-term, as well. The Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index continues to trend lower from its mid-December peak despite investor perceptions that the US economy is accelerating. The China Blended Corporate Spread Index is rising +.85% to 591.0 bps. Lumber is -3.6% since its Dec. 29th high despite the better US economic data, dovish Fed commentary, improving sentiment towards homebuilders, equity rally and decline in eurozone debt angst. Moreover, the weekly MBA Purchase Applications Index has been around the same level since May 2010. The Baltic Dry Index has plunged over -60.0% from its Oct. 14th high and is now down around -50.0% ytd. China Iron Ore Spot has plunged -20.5% since Sept. 7th of last year. Shanghai Copper Inventories are right near a new record and have risen +783.0% ytd. I still think this is more of a red flag for falling demand rather than the intentional hoarding, which many suggest. US stocks continue to trade very well as they consolidate recent gains in a healthy fashion and ignore almost all negatives. One of my longs, market leader (AAPL), keeps grinding higher despite the many recent opportunities for investors to "sell the news". I mentioned another one of my longs, (GOOG), was trading well last week and it is breaking out of its recent range today. Oil is trading as if the next trading move is higher, which remains a broad market negative. Rhetoric in Asia with regards to North Korea is heating up, which is something else to keep an eye on. As well, the 2013 US fiscal cliff will become more of a focus for investors as the year progresses.For the recent equity advance to maintain traction, I would still expect to see further European credit gauge improvement, a further subsiding of hard-landing fears in key emerging markets, a rising 10-year yield, better volume, stable-to-lower energy prices and higher-quality stock market leadership. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher into the close from current levels on a bounce in the euro, short-covering, more financial/tech sector optimism and investor performance angst.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Greek Swaps Sellers to Pay $2.5 Billion to Settle Contracts. Sellers of credit-default swaps on Greece will have to pay as much as $2.5 billion to settle contracts triggered by the nation’s debt restructuring. The settlement was determined after dealers agreed a final value for Greek bonds of 21.5 percent of face value at an auction, according to administrators Markit Group Ltd. and Creditex Group Inc., and is in line with where the notes have been trading.
• Fisher Says Economy Doesn't Need More Easing, Reuters Reports. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Richard Fisher said the U.S. economy doesn’t need more liquidity, according to Reuters. “There is plenty of liquidity,” Fisher said today during a roundtable discussion at a business event in London, according to Reuters. “We need no more,” he said, according to the news service.
• Bernanke Seen Not Knowing Jobless Rate Below Fed Forecasts. David Waldrop, 59, says he considers himself retired after searching unsuccessfully for work comparable to the job he lost in July 2007 at the U.S. Department of Energy in Atlanta. “There was certainly nothing in my area at my level,” he said. While the right opening might pull him back to employment, for now he sees his exit from the U.S. labor force as permanent. “I don’t see it happening,” he said. “I don’t see anything offering opportunities.” Waldrop is one of millions who have dropped out of the labor market in the aftermath of the deepest recession since the Great Depression, causing the employment-to-population ratio to fall to 58.6 percent from 62.7 percent at the end of 2007. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke says the decline reflects weakness in the economy that’s causing discouraged Americans to leave the workforce, bolstering his decision to add to his record monetary stimulus in January.
• Fed's Dudley Says U.S. Isn't 'Out of the Woods': Economy. Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William C. Dudley said signs the economy is improving don’t dispel risks to growth that include higher gasoline prices, fiscal cutbacks and a weak housing market. “The incoming data on the U.S. economy has been a bit more upbeat of late, suggesting that the recovery may be getting better established,” Dudley said today in a speech in Melville, New York. “But, while these developments are certainly encouraging, it is far too soon to conclude that we are out of the woods in terms of generating a strong, sustainable recovery.”
• Apple(AAPL) to Pay Dividend, Buy Back Stock to Return Some of Cash. Apple Inc. (AAPL) will pay its first dividend in 17 years and buy back $10 billion in stock, heeding investors who urged it to return part of the $97.6 billion in cash amassed by robust demand for iPhones and iPads. Shareholders will receive a quarterly dividend of $2.65 a share starting in the period beginning July 1, Cupertino, California-based Apple said today in a statement. The buybacks will begin in the fiscal year starting Sept. 30 and happen over three years, the company said.
• China Increases Fuel Prices Second Time in Two Months. China, the world’s largest oil consumer after the U.S., increased gasoline and diesel prices for the second time in less than six weeks after crude had its biggest monthly gain in a year. Prices gain by 600 yuan ($95) a metric ton starting today, after the three crude grades tracked by the National Development and Reform Commission climbed more than 10 percent, according to a statement on the planning agency’s website yesterday evening. Retail gasoline prices will increase as much as 6.6 percent and diesel will be as much as 7.2 percent more expensive, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

CNBC.com:

• Chinese Copycast Challenge US Small Businesses.
• Oil Rally to Continue, Next Target $125: Charts.
  

Business Insider:

• People are Freaking Out Over An Executive Order That May Give Obama Complete Control Over The Economy.
• Russia is Reportedly Sending 20,000 to 25,000 Troops to its Southern Regions.
• And Now Al Gore Has Been Accused Of Abusing His Apple Board Seat For Personal Gain.

Zero Hedge:

• Goldman(GS) Hikes Apple(AAPL) Price Target from $660 to $700.
• How to Cripple the Real Estate Market in Five Easy Steps.
  

Credit Writedowns:

• On Spain, Spanish Banks and Spanish Local Elections. The Spanish news stream is poor as the media focuses on local bank reliance central bank funding and the 2012 budget that will be unveiled next week. Just like roughly 1 in 3 that are unemployed in the euro zone are in Spain, Spanish banks account for almost half of the borrowing from the ECB in February.

Reuters:

• Home Builder Sentiment Steady in March: NAHB. Homebuilder sentiment was unchanged in March to hold at the highest level since June 2007, while sentiment in February was revised lower, the National Association of Home Builders said on Monday. The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market index held steady at 28, the group said in a statement, shy of economists' expectations for 30. February's reading was revised down to 28 from 29.
• G20 Web Economy Seen at $4.2 Trillion by 2016 - BCG. The Internet economy in the world's G20 nations will grow by more than 10 percent annually for the next four years, surpassing the size of the German economy at $4.2 trillion by 2016, management consultancy the Boston Consulting Group said. As a proliferation of Web-enabled smartphones is expected to help a total of 3 billion people access the Internet by 2016, online retail, banking, advertising, IT services and demand for Internet-related goods will thrive, BCG said on Monday. The G20's Internet economy will nearly double between 2010 and 2016, creating an extra 32 million jobs, according to the BCG report.

AP:

• New Mexico Regulators Scrap Carbon Emissions Rules. New Mexico regulators pulled the plug Friday on the state's effort to reduce greenhouse gas emissions among coal-fired power plants, refineries and other large polluters. The Environmental Improvement Board adopted a repeal petition filed last year by utilities and industry groups that were concerned about rising costs and New Mexico's economic viability. The vote marks the second time in two months that the board has undone regulations passed in the waning weeks of former Democratic Gov. Bill Richardson's administration that were aimed at curbing carbon emissions.

Telegraph:

• Italy is Trapped in a Monetary Volkerkirker. Another month, another blow for Italy. Industrial orders fell 7.4pc in January, according to ISTAT. Domestic orders fell 7.6pc. Output fell 4.9pc, as you can see from this chart:

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Mid-Cap Value +.54%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Homebuilders -.58% 2) Telecom -.21% 3) Road & Rail -.18%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

• KSS, TUDO, JVA, VRA, DNP and KBH
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) FXA 2) BBT 3) TIF 4) ARNA 5) RDN
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) S 2) VRTX 3) RDC 4) BAC 5) XOM
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume