Weekly Outlook

U.S. Week Ahead by MarketWatch (video). 
Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters.
Stocks to Watch Monday by MarketWatch.
Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week modestly lower on rising US fiscal cliff concerns, Eurozone debt angst, Mideast unrest, technical selling, profit-taking, more shorting and increasing global growth fears. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the week.

Market Week in Review

S&P 500 1,413.58 -.32%*




The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

*5-Day Change

Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices

• S&P 500 1,413.58 -.32%
• DJIA 13,135.01 -.15%
• NASDAQ 2,971.33 -.22%
• Russell 2000 823.75 +.18%
• Value Line Geometric(broad market) 359.94 +.30%
• Russell 1000 Growth 651.86 -.56%
• Russell 1000 Value 709.56 -.04%
• Morgan Stanley Consumer 839.44 -.40%
• Morgan Stanley Cyclical 1,019.81 +1.43%
• Morgan Stanley Technology 676.33 +.46%
• Transports 5,186.95 +1.15%
• Utilities 451.10 -.56%
• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 88.42 -.46%
• MSCI Emerging Markets 43.28 +1.79%
• Lyxor L/S Equity Long Bias 1,066.91 +.53%
• Lyxor L/S Equity Variable Bias 807.55 unch.

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 158,521 -.01%
• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -115 -80
• Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 25.8 -16.7%
• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 166,339 -14.2%
• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,543,454 .36%
• Total Put/Call .89 +11.25%
• OEX Put/Call 2.43 +257.4%
• ISE Sentiment 133.0 -.75%
• NYSE Arms .94 +84.31%
• Volatility(VIX) 17.0 +6.92%
• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 65.78 +3.87%
• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 7.36 -2.65%
• Smart Money Flow Index 10,979.44 +1.05%
• Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.645 Trillion +.1%
• AAII % Bulls 43.2 +2.4%
• AAII % Bears 30.1 -13.1%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 294.89 +.06%
• Crude Oil 86.73 +.87%
• Reformulated Gasoline 266.21 +2.11%
• Natural Gas 3.31 -6.52%
• Heating Oil 298.07 +1.97%
• Gold 1,697.0 -.52%
• Bloomberg Base Metals Index 217.05 +2.44%
• Copper 368.30 +.52%
• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 349.67 USD/Ton unch.
• China Iron Ore Spot 129.30 USD/Ton +6.86%
• Lumber 355.0 +2.81%
• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,609.11 -1.09%

Economy

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate 4.4% +90 basis points
• Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index .3931 -2.21%
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 112.22 +.18%
• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 50.60 -.2 point
• Fed Fund Futures imply 54.0% chance of no change, 46.0% chance of 25 basis point cut on 1/30
• US Dollar Index 79.58 -1.03%
• Yield Curve 147.0 +9 basis points
• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 1.70% +8 basis points
• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $2.899 Trillion +2.02%
• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 37.26 -.64%
• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 177.0 +.65%
• Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 110.41 +.49%
  
• Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 163.99 -2.01%
  
• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 139.33 -1.0%
• Iraq Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 475.07 +5.57%
• China Blended Corporate Spread Index 377.0 -14 basis points
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.46% -3 basis points
• TED Spread 28.25 +5.5 basis points
• 2-Year Swap Spread 12.75 +1.75 basis points
• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -22.5 +3.25 basis points
• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 95.23 -1.59%
  
• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 152.04 -.79%
  
• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 209.25 -4.96%
  
• CMBS Super Senior AAA 10-Year Treasury Spread 90.0 unch.
• M1 Money Supply $2.468 Trillion +4.30%
• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,049.30 +1.30%
• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 381,500 -26,500
• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 2.5% unch.
• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 3.32% -2 basis points
• Weekly Mortgage Applications 931.20 +6.2%
• Bloomberg Consumer Comfort -34.5 -.7 point
• Weekly Retail Sales +2.20% +10 basis points
• Nationwide Gas $3.29/gallon -.08/gallon
• U.S. Heating Demand Next 7 Days 24.0% below normal
• Baltic Dry Index 784 -18.84%
• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,101.46 -.44%
• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 27.50 -8.33%
• Rail Freight Carloads 240,098 -.54%

Best Performing Style

• Small-Cap Value +.24%

Worst Performing Style

• Large-Cap Growth -.56%

Leading Sectors

• Alternative Energy +5.46%
• Airlines +3.44%
• Networking +3.28%
• Gaming +3.27%
• Coal +2.48%

Lagging Sectors

• Computer Hardware -.78%
• REITs -.98%
• HMOs -1.07%
• Disk Drives -1.68%
• Oil Service -3.10%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (12)

• TNS, INFI, SAM, WBMD, MCP, RTEC, CAS, TRIP, GDI, SWC, CSII and ADBE

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (14)

• CRL, TH, CTWS, CME, PRA, HCA, FINL, SPW, INCY, AVD, CIE, PTRY, ARIA and JW/A

Weekly Charts
ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers
• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers
• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour on Fiscal Cliff Fears, Eurozone Debt Angst, Technical Selling, Oil Service/HMO Weakness

Today's Market Take:

Broad Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Slightly Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming

Equity Investor Angst:

• VIX 16.79 +1.39%

• ISE Sentiment Index 135.0 +26.2%

• Total Put/Call .84 -.5%

• NYSE Arms .80 -23.23%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 94.55 +.12%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 152.11 +.43%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 110.41 bps -1.34%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 209.0 bps -.69%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 12.75 +1.25 bps

• TED Spread 28.75 +3.0 bps

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -22.50 -1.0 bp

Economic Gauges:

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .02% -3 bps

• Yield Curve 148.0 unch.

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $129.30/Metric Tonne +2.29%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 50.6 -.5 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.46 -1 bp

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei Futures: Indicating +37 open in Japan

• DAX Futures: Indicating +7 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my retail, tech and biotech sector longs

• Disclosed Trades: None

• Market Exposure: 25% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -.75%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) HMOs -2.15% 2) Oil Service -1.82% 3) Disk Drives -1.17%
  

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

• AAPL, ASPS, CRUS, SWKS, EZPW, BHI, DFS, TVL, ECA, CTCM, SNFCA, MET, LPI, BBY, SLB, FINL, LPL, GIII, ETH, CNC, DWRE, PAY, AVGO, QCOM, MCRS, UNXL, TEVA, CRUS, JBL, NOV, IPAR, CGNX, TSRA, EXLP, WCG, USNA and ARIA

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) LMT 2) XLV 3) QCOM 4) ADBE 5) SLB
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) NOV 2) ZUMZ 3) ETN 4) BBY 5) AIG
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Value -.03%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Steel +2.59% 2) Coal +2.47% 3) Alt Energy +1.32%
  

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• SZYM, NIHD, YPF, AVG, ADBE, PPG, X, CLF and VMED

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) NRG 2) APC 3) AEP 4) INFI 5) PAY
  

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) UTX 2) VVI 3) MSCI 4) DAL 5) S

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume 
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume