Weekly Outlook

U.S. Week Ahead by MarketWatch (video). 
Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters.
Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week modestly lower on rising US fiscal cliff concerns, Eurozone debt angst, technical selling, more shorting and global growth fears. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the week.

Market Week in Review

S&P 500 1,402.43 -2.86%*




The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

*5-Day Change

Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices

• S&P 500 1,402.43 -2.86%

• DJIA 12,938.11 -2.81%

• NASDAQ 2,960.31 -2.95%

• Russell 2000 832.10 -2.39%

• Value Line Geometric(broad market) 361.11 -2.60%

• Russell 1000 Growth 646.70 -2.75%

• Russell 1000 Value 705.27 -2.87%

• Morgan Stanley Consumer 826.75 -2.61%

• Morgan Stanley Cyclical 1,024.37 -2.64%

• Morgan Stanley Technology 673.04 -3.46%

• Transports 5,220.98 -2.55%

• Utilities 446.70 -2.92%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 89.49 -1.65%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 43.61 +.40%

• Lyxor L/S Equity Long Bias 1,074.97 -.17%

• Lyxor L/S Equity Variable Bias 805.25 -.18%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 158,018 -1.88%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -91 -403

• Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 50.0 +39.7%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 194,707 +6.45%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,476,652 -1.15%

• Total Put/Call 1.06 +1.92%

• OEX Put/Call .57 -46.73%

• ISE Sentiment 85.0 -59.13%

• NYSE Arms 2.14 +224.24%

• Volatility(VIX) 22.72 +28.58%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 71.38 +10.53%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 8.14 +5.03%

• Smart Money Flow Index 10,913.17 -.68%

• Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.665 Trillion +1.1%

• AAII % Bulls 44.4 -4.3%

• AAII % Bears 30.2 +21.9%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 294.78 +.10%

• Crude Oil 90.80 +.95%

• Reformulated Gasoline 279.99 +1.50%

• Natural Gas 3.47 +.67%

• Heating Oil 304.48 -.42%

• Gold 1,655.90 +.47%

• Bloomberg Base Metals Index 211.72 +.57%

• Copper 358.95 +1.54%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 349.67 USD/Ton unch.

• China Iron Ore Spot 139.40 USD/Ton +2.95%

• Lumber 378.50 +2.66%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,574.28 -.48%

Economy

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate 5.4% +80 basis points

• Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index .3922 -4.5%

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 112.10 -.08%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 47.70 -7.1 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 60.0% chance of no change, 40.0% chance of 25 basis point cut on 1/30

• US Dollar Index 79.68 +.53%

• Yield Curve 145.0 -4 basis points

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 1.70% -6 basis points

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $2.890 Trillion -.44%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 36.0 -5.51%

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 178.0 -1.16%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 110.43 +.26%
  

• Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 161.54 +.25%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 135.98 +1.99%

• Iraq Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 465.57 +1.92%

• China Blended Corporate Spread Index 369.0 +3 basis points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.44% -4 basis points

• TED Spread 30.25 +4.75 basis points

• 2-Year Swap Spread 14.25 +1.25 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -21.25 +4.0 basis points

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 95.52 +3.49%
  

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 140.96 +1.53%
  

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 210.49 -.24%
  

• CMBS Super Senior AAA 10-Year Treasury Spread 90.0 unch.

• M1 Money Supply $2.432 Trillion -1.80%

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,065.60 +.70%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 356,800 -11,000

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 2.5% unch.

• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 3.35% -2 basis points

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 817.0 n/a

• Bloomberg Consumer Comfort -32.1 -.2 point

• Weekly Retail Sales +2.40% +20 basis points

• Nationwide Gas $3.28/gallon +.05/gallon

• U.S. Heating Demand Next 7 Days n/a

• Baltic Dry Index 699.0 -8.75%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,113.58 +.54%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 27.50 unch.

• Rail Freight Carloads 240,119 -4.71%

Best Performing Style

• Small-Cap Growth -2.32%

Worst Performing Style

• Large-Cap Value -2.87%

Leading Sectors

• Gold & Silver +.34%

• Steel -.61%

• I-Banking -.66%

• REITs -1.30%

• Papers -1.47%

Lagging Sectors

• Tobacco -4.39%

• Oil Service -4.48%

• Disk Drives -5.15%

• Coal -5.42%

• Oil Tankers -5.59%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (2)

• F and KYTH

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (3)

• SHEN, MED and CPMK

Weekly Charts
ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Weekly Outlook

U.S. Week Ahead by MarketWatch (video). 
Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters.
Stocks to Watch Monday by MarketWatch.
Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week modestly lower on rising US fiscal cliff concerns, Eurozone debt angst, technical selling, profit-taking, more shorting and global growth fears. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the week.

Market Week in Review

S&P 500 1,430.15 +1.17%*




The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

*5-Day Change

Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices

• S&P 500 1,430.15 +1.17%

• DJIA 13,190.84 +.42%

• NASDAQ 3,021.0 +1.67%

• Russell 2000 847.92 +2.93%

• Value Line Geometric(broad market) 367.82 +2.19%

• Russell 1000 Growth 659.79 +1.22%

• Russell 1000 Value 718.37 +1.24%

• Morgan Stanley Consumer 840.80 +.16%

• Morgan Stanley Cyclical 1,038.55 +1.84%

• Morgan Stanley Technology 689.99 +2.02%

• Transports 5,340.80 +2.97%

• Utilities 457.63 +1.45%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 90.32 +1.43%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 43.0 -.65%

• Lyxor L/S Equity Long Bias 1,071.83 +.46%

• Lyxor L/S Equity Variable Bias 804.96 -.32%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 162,086 +2.1%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 312 +427

• Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 35.8 +38.8%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 182,991 +9.96%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,493,851 -3.21%

• Total Put/Call 1.04 +16.85%

• OEX Put/Call 1.07 -55.97%

• ISE Sentiment 98.0 -26.3%

• NYSE Arms 1.72 +82.98%

• Volatility(VIX) 17.84 +4.94%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 65.59 -.29%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 7.79 +5.84%

• Smart Money Flow Index 10,987.47 +1.15%

• Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.637 Trillion -.3%

• AAII % Bulls 46.4 +7.3%

• AAII % Bears 24.8 -17.6%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 294.13 -.26%

• Crude Oil 88.66 +2.13%

• Reformulated Gasoline 273.47 +2.73%

• Natural Gas 3.45 +4.45%

• Heating Oil 302.24 +1.28%

• Gold 1,660.10 -2.20%

• Bloomberg Base Metals Index 210.53 -3.0%

• Copper 356.70 -3.03%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 349.67 USD/Ton unch.

• China Iron Ore Spot 135.40 USD/Ton +4.72%

• Lumber 366.60 +3.27%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,580.73 -1.76%

Economy

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate 4.6% +70 basis points

• Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index .3690 -8.32%

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 112.19 -.03%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 54.80 +4.2 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 58.0% chance of no change, 42.0% chance of 25 basis point cut on 1/30

• US Dollar Index 79.53 -.03%

• Yield Curve 149.0 +2 basis points

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 1.76% +6 basis points

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $2.902 Trillion +.11%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 38.10 +2.25%

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 180.0 +1.31%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 110.13 -.24%
  

• Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 161.15 -1.74%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 133.33 -4.31%

• Iraq Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 456.79 -3.84%

• China Blended Corporate Spread Index 366.0 -11 basis points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.48% +2 basis points

• TED Spread 25.5 -2.75 basis points

• 2-Year Swap Spread 13.0 +.25 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -25.25 -2.75 basis points

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 92.29 -3.09%
  

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 138.83 -8.69%
  

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 210.99 +.83%
  

• CMBS Super Senior AAA 10-Year Treasury Spread 90.0 unch.

• M1 Money Supply $2.476 Trillion +.33%

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,058.30 +.90%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 367,800 -13,700

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 2.5% unch.

• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 3.37% +5 basis points

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 817.0 -12.3%

• Bloomberg Consumer Comfort -31.9 +2.6 points

• Weekly Retail Sales +2.20% unch.

• Nationwide Gas $3.23/gallon -.06/gallon

• U.S. Heating Demand Next 7 Days 24.0% below normal 

• Baltic Dry Index 708 -9.69%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,107.55 +.55%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 27.50 unch.

• Rail Freight Carloads 251,985 +4.95%

Best Performing Style

• Small-Cap Value +3.11%

Worst Performing Style

• Large-Cap Growth +1.22%

Leading Sectors

• I-Banks +5.6%

• Homebuilders +4.2%

• Banks +4.1%

• Oil Tankers +4.02%

• Networking +4.0%

Lagging Sectors

• Telecom -.39%

• Retail -.76%

• Education -2.0%

• Gold & Silver -2.70%

• Coal -3.19%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (18)

• ROMA, NYX, CBOU, ELOQ, ARB, VVUS, SGI, CPWR, HSII, EGOV, QUAD, AH, VRTU, ISIS, SCSC, LOGM, ARII and ARRS

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (7)

• NAV, RGR, ISRG, MKL, NUS, ARIA and AFFY

Weekly Charts
ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change