Friday Watch

Evening Headlines 
Bloomberg: 

• ECB to Give First Indication of Three-Year Loan Repayment Today. The European Central Bank will give a first indication today of how much of its 1 trillion euros ($1.33 trillion) in three-year loans banks plan to repay early. In a statement at around noon in Frankfurt, the ECB will say how much of the first three-year loan banks have pledged to hand back at the first early-repayment opportunity on Jan. 30. They will initially repay 84 billion euros, according to the median of 10 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey of economists. Some 150 billion euros of the first loan, which totaled 489 billion euros, will be given back early as banks continue to repay the funds over coming weeks, the survey shows. 
• Monti Says Monte Paschi Bailout Hinges on Bank of Italy Review. Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA’s 3.9 billion-euro ($5.2 billion) government bailout may face a delay after Prime Minister Mario Monti called for a further review of the bank’s accounts. Monti said the Bank of Italy will take another look at the bank’s books after the company disclosed this week it may face more than 700 million euros of losses related to structured finance transactions hidden from regulators. Monte Paschi (BMPS) shareholders are voting on a capital increase today to pave the way for the emergency government loans.
• EU to Embark on Strong Bank-Structure Overhaul, Barnier Says. Michel Barnier, the European Union’s financial services chief, said that he will present proposals this year for a “strong reform” of bank structure in a bid to prevent lenders from being too-big-to-fail. The EU plans will “separate well the risks in the banking sector,” the European Commissioner said in an interview with Bloomberg Television’s Caroline Connan yesterday at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. The proposals may be published by September, he said.
• China's New Leaders May Introduce Property Curbs, BofA Cui Says. China's new government may introduce new curbs on the property market when it takes power in March, hurting the outlook for the nation's equities, according to David Cui, equity strategist at Bank of America Corp. The "potential negative triggers" for stocks are policies to restrain the rebound in real-estate prices and so-called shadow banking, Cui said. "The sensitive period I would watch out for is after the National People's Congress in early March when the new leaders are installed," he said. "There may be a change in policy." 
• China’s Stocks Fall to One-Week Low as Liquor Makers Decline. Chinese stocks fell to a one-week low as declines by consumer-staple and financial shares overshadowed advances among health-care companies. Kweichow Moutai Co. (600519) slumped 2.8 percent, leading a gauge of consumer-staple companies to a one-month low. Financial shares were the biggest drag on the CSI 300 Index after valuations climbed to a 10-month high. Goertek Inc., an Apple Inc. supplier, dropped to a five-week low after the U.S. company’s shares slumped on earnings.
• Billionaire Kotak Says Bad Debts Are No. 1 Threat to India Banks. Billionaire Uday Kotak, the controlling shareholder of the Indian bank with the highest lending margins, said the nation’s increasing sour debts pose the biggest threat to its lenders. “The No. 1 focus and concern for the system, the banking system, is rising bad loans,” Kotak, 53, said yesterday in an interview with Bloomberg Television from the Swiss city of Davos while attending the World Economic Forum. “A lot of large corporates have got themselves over-leveraged, and that’s where the pain is.”
• Billionaire Icahn Says No Respect for Ackman Herbalife(HLF) Bet. Billionaire investor Carl Icahn, saying he doesn’t “like” or “respect” fellow hedge-fund manager William Ackman, criticized the way Ackman publicized a bet that shares of Herbalife Ltd. would decline. “You don’t go out and get a room full of people to badmouth the company,” Icahn said today in an interview with Trish Regan on Bloomberg Television’s “Street Smart.” “If you want to be in that business, why don’t you join the SEC,” Icahn added, referring to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
• Singapore’s Biggest Deals Hit by Property Curbs: Southeast Asia. Singapore’s latest round of measures to curb record property prices has become a stumbling block in the city-state’s two-biggest corporate takeover deals. 
• Japan CPI Fall Shows Challenge For Central Bank Price Target. Japan’s consumer prices declined for the seventh time in eight months, highlighting the challenge facing the Bank of Japan (8301) to reach a 2 percent inflation target announced this week. Consumer prices excluding fresh food fell 0.2 percent in December from a year earlier, the statistics bureau said in Tokyo today, matching the median estimate of 23 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.
• Apple(AAPL) Expands Audits, Says China Labor Agent Forged Documents. Apple Inc. (AAPL) expanded internal audits of suppliers and identified a Chinese labor agent hiring underage workers as the world’s most-valuable company moves to boost conditions for people making iPhones and iPads. One manufacturer employed 74 children younger than 16, and 158 facilities lacked procedures or didn’t perform adequate audits of their own suppliers, according to the annual Supplier Responsibility Report released today by Cupertino, California- based Apple.

Wall Street Journal: 

• SEC Nominee Signals Shift. Obama Taps Ex-Prosecutor Mary Jo White, Portending Increased Policing of Wall Street. President Barack Obama nominated a former prosecutor turned white-collar criminal defender as his choice for top U.S. securities regulator. The nomination of Mary Jo White marks the first time a former prosecutor has been chosen to lead the Securities and Exchange Commission in its 79-year history. The move could signal tougher policing of Wall Street.
• Pensions Bet Big With Private Equity. On the 13th floor of a sleek downtown office building here, the trading desks are manned overnight. The chief investment officer favors cowboy boots made of elephant skin. And when a bet pays off, even the secretaries can be entitled to bonuses. The office's occupant isn't a highflying hedge fund but the Teacher Retirement System of Texas, a public pension fund with 1.3 million members including schoolteachers, bus drivers and cafeteria workers across the state.
• Pyongyang Plans Nuclear Detonation. North Korea made its most explicit statement yet that it plans to detonate another nuclear device—its third—in the near future, in what it said was "a new phase of the anti-U.S. struggle." The National Defense Commission, a body of generals considered the most powerful part of North Korea's authoritarian regime, said the country would launch "a variety of satellites and long-range rockets…one after another" and carry out "a nuclear test of higher level."
• The Fight to Unseat Apple's(AAPL) iPhone Intensifies. The iPhone ended the year with a blowout quarter in the U.S. market. But underneath the big numbers at the largest U.S. carriers are signs Apple Inc. faces a rapidly changing marketplace that could erode its dominance.
• Citi(C) Adds to Drain of Funds at SAC. Multiple Relationships With Hedge-Fund Firm Are at Stake in Company's Decision to Redeem $187 Million.
• Cyprus Bailout Rifts Rekindle Broader Fears. A flap over a potential bailout for Cyprus is heightening anxieties that the tiny island's economy could become the next flash point in the euro zone's debt crisis. A rescue program for Cyprus will require substantially reducing government and bank debt, Olli Rehn, the European Union's economics commissioner, said in an interview Thursday at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, in a recognition that a more-conventional bailout of the latest euro-zone country to hit financial difficulties would leave it with too much debt.
• 'Disaster Bonds' Miss Their Mark. In December, an Iowa state agency issued $1.2 billion in municipal bonds for an Egyptian company to build a fertilizer factory. The bonds qualified for tax-exempt status under a U.S. program to aid Midwestern states flooded in 2008. The "disaster bonds" got another boost from a loophole that was perfectly legal: In 2010, state officials ruled, based on guidance from the Internal Revenue Service, that companies could use such bonds even if they weren't hurt by the devastating floods or located in the hardest-hit parts of Iowa.
• Nicholas Eberstadt: Yes, Mr. President, We Are a Nation of Takers. Since 1960, entitlement transfers have grown twice as fast as personal income—to $2.3 trillion annually. In President Obama's second inaugural address, he not only outlined an ambitious agenda for his second term but also seemed intent on shutting down debate about the social-welfare state and its impact on American life.

Fox News:

• Clinton calls for change in law she says blocked discipline of employees over Libya. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton confirmed this week that several employees who were "removed" from their positions in the wake of the Libya terror attack are still being paid and have not actually left her department. But she also gave a surprising answer when asked why: Her hands are tied, she said.

CNBC: 

• Microsoft(MSFT) Earnings Narrowly Beat Street Forecast. Software giant Microsoft reported quarterly earnings that were a penny higher than Wall Street's forecasts and revenue that was just shy of what analysts had expected on Thursday despite a lift from its latest version of Windows.

Zero Hedge: 

• Gallup Poll: Americans Most Negative On the Nation And Economy In 30 Years. (graph)
• Fed's Balance Sheet Tops $3 Trillion, But... (graphs)
• PIMCO On Hedging: It Pays To Be Countercyclical.

Business Insider: 

• GOOGLE(GOOG): US Government Requesting Even More Private Data Without Warrants. Google has revealed the full scale of the US government's use of controversial legislation that bypasses judicial approval to access the online information of private citizens. 
• Debt Collectors Are Infiltrating Facebook(FB) To Track Down Delinquent Borrowers.
• SOROS: Japan's New Monetary Policy Will Badly Affect The German Economy.
• Joe Biden Recommends Buying A Shotgun When An Earthquake Strikes.(video)

The Blaze: 

• ‘Umm. Ooops.’: The Top 5 Answers to Hillary Clinton’s Benghazi Question of ‘What Difference…Does It Make?’ When Secretary of State Hillary Clinton faced down Sen. Ron Johnson and asked exasperatedly, “What difference at this point does it make” why the attacks in Benghazi happened, she must have known it would spur controversy.
  

Reuters: 

• Samsung puts lid on capex for 1st time since financial crisis. Samsung Electronics Co turned cautious on spending for the first time since the global financial crisis, keeping its annual investment plan unchanged at 2012 levels, as demand for computer chips wanes and the smartphone market slows. 
• Samsung Elec expects global PC market to shrink 5 pct in 2013. Samsung Electronics Co , the world's top memory chipmaker, said it expects the global personal computer market to shrink by 5 percent this year as consumer demand continues to shift to mobile devices such as tablet computers. The PC market declined for the first time in 11 years last year, according to research firm IHS iSuppli.  
• US-based stock mutual funds gain for third straight week -Lipper.
• Starbucks(SBUX) stays hot in U.S., Asia; shares rise. Starbucks Corp reported stronger-than-expected sales in the United States and Asia despite economic uncertainty worldwide, offsetting unexpected costs including the bill for cleaning up after Superstorm Sandy. 
• AT&T(T) subscriber growth beats but profit margin misses. AT&T Inc's fourth-quarter profit was lower than expected but the telephone company promised earnings and revenue growth this year even if the economy does not improve. 
• Flextronics(FLEX) loses key customer RIM; sees weak 4th-qtr. Contract manufacturer Flextronics Inc forecast fourth-quarter results below Wall Street expectations, and said it now expects almost no revenue from key customer Research In Motion , sending its shares down 6 percent after the bell.

Telegraph:

• A US housing recovery with a lot of long-term question marks. Optimism is building about a recovery in the US housing market but plenty of questions remain, writes Richard Blackden.

21st Century Business Herald:

• Ctrip.com(CTRP) to Cut at Least 500 Sales People. The co. will cut all sales staff at airports, railway stations and bus stations in tier-2 and tier-3 cities, citing sales people at the company.

Evening Recommendations 
Citigroup:

• Downgraded (GS) to Neutral, target $150.

Night Trading

• Asian equity indices are -.75% to +.50% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 109.0 +1.0 basis point.

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 85.0 -.25 basis point.

• FTSE-100 futures -.24%.

• S&P 500 futures -.25%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.10%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• (COV)/1.06
• (HAL)/.61
• (HON)/1.09
• (KMB)/1.35
• (OSK)/.34
• (PG)/1.11
• (WY)/.20

Economic Releases
10:00 am EST

• New Home Sales for December are estimated to rise to 385K versus 377K in November.

Upcoming Splits

• (GILD) 2-for-1
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The UK gdp reprt, Germany IFO data and the (WPI) investor meeting could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Diminishing Global Growth Fears, Short-Covering, Healthcare/Retail Sector Strength

Broad Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Slightly Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

• VIX 13.09 +5.06%
  

• ISE Sentiment Index 119.0 +1.3%

• Total Put/Call .86 -3.37%

• NYSE Arms .83 -29.84%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 86.38 -.10%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 137.21 -.34%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 100.22 +1.2%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 213.47 +.43%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 15.25 +.5 bp

• TED Spread 22.5 -.25 bp

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -14.25 +.75 bp

Economic Gauges:

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .08% +1 bp

• Yield Curve 161.0 +2 bps

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $148.60/Metric Tonne +.61%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -.6 +2.4 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.55 +2 bps

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei Futures: Indicating +198 open in Japan

• DAX Futures: Indicating -9 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my medical/biotech/retail sector longs and emerging markets shorts

• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then covered some of them

• Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Spanish Jobless Rate Hits Record 26.0% After Rajoy’s First Year. The number of jobless approached 6 million people, or 26.02 percent, from 25.01 percent in the previous three months, the National Statistics Institute in Madrid said today. That matched the median forecast of 10 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Spain is now home to a third of the euro region’s unemployed. 

• Merkel Says Japanese Yen, Central-Bank Liquidity Are Concerns. German Chancellor Angela Merkel said the Japanese government’s call for monetary easing and central- bank cash that’s been unleashed to stem Europe’s debt crisis constitute risks to the global economic recovery. “I can’t say I’m completely free of worry when I look at Japan right now,” Merkel said today during a question-and- answer session after addressing the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. For Europe, the “large amount of liquidity” pumped into the financial system last year, particularly to help banks, has to be mopped up again, she said.

• Osborne Says Credibility ‘Easily Lost’ as IMF Warns on Austerity. U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne said there can be no letup in his budget-cutting program after the International Monetary Fund urged him to consider easing the pace of austerity if the recovery falters. “Credibility is very hard won and easily lost and it would be a huge mistake to put that at risk,” Osborne said at an event today at the World Economic Forum annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland.

• Deutsche Bank(DB) Said to Sell CDOs to Help Meet Capital Goal. Deutsche Bank AG (DBK), Germany’s biggest lender, is said to have issued collateralized debt obligations, using a structure common before the credit crunch to shed its riskier assets and boost its capital ratio.

• Emerging Stocks Drop as Apple Sales Hit Asian Suppliers. Emerging-market stocks retreated the most in a week as slower sales growth at Apple Inc. (AAPL) dragged down Asian suppliers and earnings reports disappointed investors.

• Consumer Comfort Falls Amid Mounting Concern Over U.S. Economy. Consumer confidence fell last week to its lowest level in more than three months as concern about the U.S. economy mounted. The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index declined to minus 36.4 in the seven days ended Jan. 20, the weakest since early October, from minus 35.5 the prior period. The measure has fallen for three straight weeks, the longest slump since August.

• Gasoline to U.S. Seen Slumping Amid Biggest Stocks in Years. The flow of European gasoline to the U.S. is poised to decline in the next two weeks as record fuel stocks for the time of year deter imports and cause shipping rates to slump, a Bloomberg survey showed. Traders and oil companies will book 24 tankers to load the fuel during the two weeks to Feb. 6, according to the median estimate in a survey yesterday of seven shipbrokers and traders specializing in the trade. A week ago they expected 27 ships to be chartered in the corresponding period. 

• Iron Ore Seen Falling in Second Quarter as China Restocking Ends. Iron ore will almost erase the past two months’ rally and fall 19 percent in the second quarter as weather stops disrupting supply and Chinese restocking ends, according to a Barclays Plc trader of the commodity. The raw material used to make steel will average $120 a dry metric ton in the three months from April, said Richard Lee, who most accurately predicted Chinese ore imports in a September survey of 11 analysts, traders and brokers. Iron ore traded at $147.70 a ton yesterday, prices from The Steel Index Ltd. show.

• Kerry Issues Iran Warning as He Seeks Senate Confirmation. Senator John Kerry stressed the need to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons as he described the “immediate, dangerous challenges” for the nation that he will deal with if confirmed as secretary of state. “The president has made it definitive -- we will do what we must to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon,” Kerry said in testimony today to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. “And I repeat here today: our policy is not containment. It is prevention, and the clock is ticking on our efforts to secure responsible compliance.”

• EU Carbon Plunges 40% as Lawmakers Suggest Rejection of Glut Fix. European Union carbon prices plunged a record 40 percent after a panel in the 27-nation bloc’s parliament recommended rejection of a strategy to strengthen the world’s biggest cap-and-trade market. The European Parliament’s industry committee advised against the plan by the EU’s regulatory arm to change the emissions-trading law to tackle a glut by 42 votes against versus 18 for. Carbon permits for December sank to a record 2.81 euros ($3.75) a metric ton immediately after the ballot. 

• Senate Leaders Said to Agree on Filibuster Rule Changes. U.S. Senate leaders reached a bipartisan agreement to change the chamber’s rules to make it harder for a single member to slow down action on legislation, according to a Senate aide and a summary of the plan.

• Focus Media(FMCN) Says SEC Probes Possible Securities Violation. Focus Media Holding Ltd. (FMCN) said the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is probing potential “violations” of securities law, with special attention to purchases and resales of companies including Allyes Online Media Holding. The Shanghai-based advertising company is cooperating with the SEC, it said in a regulatory filing on Jan. 18 about its going-private transaction with Carlyle Group LP (CG) and other firms.

MarketWatch.com:

• Obama sends tough prosecutor to police Wall Street. Commentary: Mary Jo White: ‘We know who to look for’.

Fox News:

• Republicans challenge Clinton claims on budget cuts, Benghazi cable. Republicans are challenging a host of statements made by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Democratic allies during Wednesday's heated Libya testimony -- claiming that complaints about a lack of funding are bogus and questioning the secretary's insistence she never saw urgent cables warning about the danger of an attack. 

CNBC: 

• Leading Indicators Rise 0.5 Percent, Top Forecasts. A gauge of future U.S. economic activity rose in December, pointing to an improvement in growth despite an ongoing political fight in Washington over fiscal policy. The private Conference Board said on Thursday its Leading Economic Index gained 0.5 percent to 93.9 last month, after being unchanged in November.

Zero Hedge: 

• It's Official: Worst. Recovery. EVER. (graphs) As the following chart from the St Louis Fed shows, as of the just completed quarter, US GDP "growth" since the "recovery" is now the worst in US history, having just dipped below the heretofore lowest on record.  

• And The Reason For Today's Five Years Initial Claims Low Is...

• Spot The 'Different This Time' Seasonal Fudging In Macro Data. (graphs) 

• Kansas Fed Joins NY, Philly And Richmond Fed In Contracting; Employment Index Drops To 2009 Levels. 

• Insurers To White House: Delay ObamaCare Or Risk "Chaos".

Business Insider: 

• Iran Says War Is The Only Thing That Can Stop Them Now. 

• Here's The First Set Of Hard Numbers On Google's(GOOG) Attempt To Steal Amazon's Shopping Business. 

• The 10 Hedge Funds With The Biggest Stakes In Apple(AAPL). 

• BREMMER: The Japan-China Crisis Is The Most Significant Geopolitical Tension In The World.

Reuters:

• Gold drops 1 pct on waning investor appetite. Gold fell 1.2 percent to a 10-day low on Thursday after a repeated failure to break above a key chart level hurt investor confidence in the metal. A recovery in gold prices this month ran out of steam as the metal hit strong resistance at $1,695, its 55-day moving average and early January high. After failing to break decisively above that level for five straight sessions, gold fell.

• Red flags revealed in filings of firm linked to Caterpillar(CAT) fraud. A Chinese mining equipment company at the centre of an alleged accounting fraud was also involved in a web of insider loans and asset transfers prior to its purchase by Caterpillar Inc., public filings show. The transactions, while not illegal, should have sounded warnings about the company's finances when the U.S. firm came calling last year, corporate governance experts said.

Financial Times:

• Business chiefs show backing for Cameron. Business leaders including the chief executive of the London Stock Exchange and the chairman of Standard Chartered have backed the British prime minister’s plan for a referendum on EU membership. In a letter to The Times, 56 industry and City leaders said they agreed with David Cameron that Britain’s “best chance of success is as part of a reformed Europe”.

France 24:

• Italian retail sales drop 0.4% in November: Istat. Italian retail sales dropped 0.4 percent in November compared to the level in October, official data showed on Thursday, in the fifth monthly drop running. A breakdown of figures published by the national statistics institute Istat showed that sales of food items had gained 0.1 percent, while non-food sales were 0.6 percent lower on the month. On a 12-month basis, retail sales fell by 3.1 percent, Istat said. Retail sales dropped 2.0 percent in the 11-month period from January to November 2012 compared to the same period in 2011, pulled down in particular by non-food sales, which plunged 2.6 percent, Istat said.

Europe 1:

• Hollande Abandons Plan  to Renew France's 75% Tax. President Francois Hollande has abandoned plans to create a new version of his 75% tax on earnings of more than 1 million euros. The tax was struck down by France's highest court in December.

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -1.06%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver -2.23% 2) Steel -1.41% 3) Computer Hardware -1.15%
  

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

• AAPL, TCBI, BXS, CHU, NGLS, NGD, FIO, CVC, BPL, MLNX, FMCN, MKC, FBC, DBD, KMT, QIHU, UA, PLCM, PNRA, SNFCA, OSIS, NE, IACI, SKYW, VAR, CEO, CRUS, ISCA, TER, WAC, PMT, ALB, BPL, CATY, VFC and PLCM

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) XRT 2) OIH 3) NFLX 4) PPG 5) KBH
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) ALB 2) TIF 3) ALTR 4) PLCM 5) DBD
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +.97%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Internet +2.25% 2) Coal +1.46% 3) Hospitals +1.44%
  

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• TZOO, BPOP, IRBT, QSII, UBCI, SMCI, MXWL, IOC, CVI, SWFT, NFLX, INVN, FCS, BC, FFIV, AVT, TPX, GMCR, GBX, KNX, WERN and CNW

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) NWS 2) TPX 3) DLTR 4) CAM 5) LSI
  

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) CVI 2) CBST 3) AMZN 4) IBM 5) LUV

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume 
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines 
Bloomberg:

• Weber in Davos Joins Dimon to Spotlight Easy Money Danger. The central bankers who saved the world economy are now being told they risk hurting it. Even as the International Monetary Fund cuts its global growth outlook, a flood of stimulus is running into criticism at the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting in Davos. Among the concerns: so-called quantitative easing is fanning complacency among governments and households, fueling the risk of a race to devalue currencies and leading to asset bubbles. “Central banks can buy time, but they cannot fix issues long-term,” former Bundesbank President Axel Weber, now chairman of UBS AG, said in the Swiss ski resort yesterday. “There’s a perception that they are the only game in town.” 

• Cameron Picks Up Thatcher’s Gauntlet in 50 Years of EU Friction. Before he was elected prime minister in 2010, David Cameron presaged the latest breach in Britain’s fraught relationship with Europe. Cameron announced his intention to abandon allies in the European Parliament including Germany’s Angela Merkel before being elected to lead the opposition Conservative Party in 2005. He sought partners with the same vision for a Europe with looser ties and formed a new group in 2009.

• Japan Exports Plunge -5.8%. Shipments dropped 5.8 percent in December from a year earlier, compared with a median estimate for a 4.2 percent decline in a Bloomberg News survey of 23 economists. The annual deficit was 6.93 trillion yen ($78 billion), the finance ministry said in Tokyo today. “Foreign officials are becoming increasingly vocal over the possibility that Japan’s policy actions have the potential to prompt a currency war,” said Izumi Devalier, a Japan economist at HSBC Holdings Plc in Hong Kong. “I think the government will avoid taking the rhetoric too far.” With imports rising 1.9 percent and exports falling for seven months, the nation’s trade shortfall in December was 641.5 billion yen, the sixth month in deficit. Japan’s export slide comes as Europe’s crisis drags on shipments and a diplomatic dispute with China over islands claimed by both nations hurts demand for products such as Toyota Motor Corp.’s cars. Exports to China fell 15.8 percent from a year earlier, while those to the U.S. dropped 0.8 percent. Shipments to the European Union were 11.1 percent lower. “These are bad numbers for the economy,” said Junko Nishioka, chief economist at RBS Securities Japan Ltd. and a former BOJ official. “The positive impact of the yen’s decline on exports has yet to be seen, but it is already boosting import values.”

• Dimon: Expect Five More Years of Finger-Pointing at Banks. JPMorgan Chase & Co.(JPM) Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon Wednesday deflected blame from the banking industry for causing the financial crisis and predicted more accusations for years to come. “It’s going to be another five years of pointing fingers, scapegoating, using misinformation” and people thinking they have improved the system, Dimon said during a panel discussion at the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland. Dimon, 56, has led financial-industry executives in warning that new rules meant to curtail risk in the wake of the financial crisis may result in unintended consequences and hurt the economy. At the forum in 2011, the CEO sparred with France’s then-President Nicolas Sarkozy over “bad policies” that Dimon said would impede growth. “We’re trying to do too much too fast,” Dimon said Wednesday. He and UBS AG Chairman Axel Weber, speaking on the same panel, criticized global regulators for making capital and liquidity rules for banks too complicated across different jurisdictions. Weber, 55, said the lack of worldwide standards has made bank regulations too “complex.”

• Boeing(BA) 787 to Stay Grounded as U.S. Can’t Explain Fires. The top two U.S. aviation regulators said they don’t know what led to battery flaws that prompted them to ground Boeing Co. (BA)’s 787, and defended their decision to not let the plane fly until the cause is found.

Wall Street Journal:

• Mali Exposes Flaws in West's Security Plans. France's attack on Islamic extremists in Mali this month is exposing major strains in the Western world's security strategy. As the French assault gained steam in West Africa, France sought help from its allies—only to find that the U.S. and other North Atlantic Treaty Organization states either weren't ready or couldn't offer much. Canada and the U.K. quickly ponied up three cargo planes, two of which broke down en route. By far the biggest breakdown, however, played out between the U.S. and France, as Washington sent what Paris saw as mixed messages about U.S. levels of commitment to taking on an al Qaeda affiliate in Mali before and after the French attack began.

• Passing Debt Bill, GOP Pledges End to Deficits. The House defused one potential debt crisis Wednesday, while a top Republican set the stage for a far broader debate over whether it is possible to actually balance the U.S. budget in coming years. The House resolved Washington's most immediate fiscal problem by passing a short-term extension of federal borrowing authority. The Senate is expected to follow suit in coming days, which would set aside for now the potentially explosive question of whether the U.S. government might be unable to borrow money to pay its bills.

Fox News:

• Leaked UN climate report slammed for citing WWF, Greenpeace. Critics are blasting a draft U.N. climate change report that combines studies by advocacy groups like the World Wildlife Fund and Greenpeace alongside scientific research papers -- the same issue that led independent auditors to slam the U.N.'s last report. “You'd think that the IPCC would have learned its lesson, that it would have told its authors not to rely on these sorts of publications,” said Donna Laframboise, the head of nofrakkingconsensus.com, an investigative website skeptical of the scientific consensus on global warming. “The report currently includes, amongst its list of references, nine separate publications produced wholly or in part by the WWF,” Laframboise told FoxNews.com.

MarketWatch.com:

• China manufacturing capacity utilization in 2012 below 2008 level: UBS. The overcapacity problem in China created by booming economic growth in recent decades resulted in even lower utilization in the manufacturing sector in 2012 than during the global financial crisis in 2008.

CNBC:

• Netflix(NFLX) Posts Surprise Profit, Outlook; Shares Jump. Netflix surprised the market Wednesday with unexpected profit and an outlook that topped forecasts.The streaming video provider's shares jumped more than 30 percent after the closing bell, following the news.

• Apple(AAPL) Earnings Hit Could Whack Tech. Apple's disappointing earnings could rattle the market Thursday, as investors assess the damage to the stock and the broader tech sector. Apple dropped 10 percent in late trading after its revenues came up short of estimates and sales of its macs and iPhones were not what the street expected. Still, Apple sold 47.8 million iPhones, a record, and 22.9 million iPads. The company also projected a softer-than-expected revenue range of $41 billion to $43 billion for its current quarter, below the more than $45 billion expected by analysts.

• China Factory Growth Quickens. The HSBC flash purchasing managers' index (PMI) rose to 51.9 in January, the highest since January 2011 and above the 50-point level that shows accelerating growth in the sector from the previous month.

Zero Hedge: 

• What Really Goes On In China.

• Kashkari Resigns Amid 'Spotty' Fund Performance, Heads Back To Public Office.

• "Return = Cash + Beta + Alpha": An Inside Look At The World's Biggest And Most Successful "Beta" Hedge Fund.

• Assistant Attorney General Breuer Gets DOJ Boot In "Untouchables" Aftermath.

Business Insider: 

• North Korea Threatens 'All-Out Confrontation' Against US. Citing North Korea'a KCNA, Bloomberg reports that North Korea is threatening "all out confrontation" against the U.S. and others. More from Yonhap News: "In the new phase of our century-long struggle against the United States, we do not hide the fact that various satellites, long-range missiles that we will continue to launch and high-level nuclear test we will conduct will target our sworn enemy, the United States," the North's National Defense Commision said in a statement carried by the communist nation's Korean Central News Agency. 

• RUSSIA TO WEST: We Told You Not To Overthrow Qaddafi!

• Homeland Security Is Researching A Huge New Public Surveillance System. These systems can also record conversations, which raises questions about the limits of police surveillance. Indeed, one murder case in New Bedford, Mass. is expected to hinge on a recorded argument, according to the Times. 

• Shale Oil Bonanza Reaches Australia With '$20 Trillion' Discovery. 

• Apple(AAPL) Sold More Than 2 Million Apple TVs Last Quarter, Tim Cook Dodges Question About Future TV Plans.  

IBD:  

• Obama Promises To Fix Inequality After Making It Worse.

Pensions & Investments:

• Performance pushes hedge fund assets to record in 2012. Aggregate single and multistrategy hedge fund assets rose to a record $2.25 trillion as of Dec. 31, up 12.5% from a year earlier, according to year-end analysis from Hedge Fund Research.

Reuters:

• Wells Fargo(WFC) sued by German agency for $160 million in CDO losses. Wells Fargo Bank, N.A. was sued Wednesday by a German government agency that accused it of mismanaging a collateralized debt obligation, resulting in more than $160 million in losses. Wells Fargo and Collineo Asset Management GMBH, a German financial services company, allowed investments of overly risky assets not permitted under the contracts governing House of Europe Funding I Ltd, a Cayman Islands CDO issuer, according to the lawsuit filed in Manhattan federal court. The German agency, Erste Abwicklungsanstalt, and the CDO itself both sued Wells as trustee and Collineo as asset manager for allowing the ineligible purchases. House of Europe Funding I's investments in other CDOs far exceeded the limit of 15 percent of the portfolio, the lawsuit said.

• Top House tax writer to outline financial instruments. The top Republican tax writer in the House of Representatives is close to releasing a draft on ways to revamp corporate taxes levied on complex financial products, a committee aide said on Wednesday.

• Logitech swings to Q3 loss on weak global PC market. Logitech, the No. 1 maker of computer mice, swung to a third-quarter loss from a year earlier and said it would divest non-strategic products, as it continues to be hit hard by weakness in the global PC market. 

• Former officials tell hedge funds: Be ready for the regulators. U. S. securities regulators are watching hedge funds more closely than ever, and former Securities and Exchange Commission officials and industry experts are urging managers to be ready when federal examiners come knocking. 

• U.S.-based stock mutual funds attract $9.32 bln -ICI.

• SanDisk's(SNDK) modest revenue forecast prompts selloff. Chipmaker SanDisk Corp's modest revenue outlook disappointed investors looking for a recovery in memory chips widely used in smartphones and tablets, sending its shares down 4 percent.

Telegraph:

• Money printing 'amounts to theft from our children'. Money printing is theft from our children and may merely be storing up problems for an even bigger crisis, top economists and investors have warned.

Evening Recommendations 
BMO Capital:

• Rated (SPLK) Outperform, target $39.

Night Trading

• Asian equity indices are -.50% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 108.0 +.5 basis point.

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 85.25 -.25 basis point.

• FTSE-100 futures -.13%.

• S&P 500 futures -.39%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -1.60%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• (BC)/-.08

• (ESI)/1.90

• (SWK)/1.28

• (LUV)/.07

• (KEY)/.21

• (BAX)/1.26

• (RTN)/1.31

• (ABC)/.66

• (LMT)/1.82

• (MMM)/1.41

• (ARG)/1.07

• (BMY)/.42

• (CELG)/1.32

• (UNP)/2.16

• (PCP)/2.47

• (CY)/.04

• (JBHT)/.69

• (MXIM)/.41

• (CVD)/.71

• (MSFT)/.75

• (FII)/.40

• (SBUX)/.57

• (JNPR)/.22

• (KLAC)/.56

• (T)/.45

• (CBE)/1.12  

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST

• Initial Jobless Claims are estimated to rise to 355K versus 335K the prior week.

• Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 3200K versus 3214K prior.

 8:58 am EST

•  Preliminary Markit US PMI for January is estimated to fall to 53.0 versus 54.0 in December.

10:00 am EST

• Leading Indicators for December are estimated to rise +.4% versus a -.2% decline in November.

11:00 am EST

• Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity for January is estimated to rise to 1.0 versus -2.0 in December.

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory build of +2,150,000 barrels versus a -951,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to rise by +1,250,000 barrels versus a +1,910,000 barrel gain the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated unch. versus a +1,686,000 barrel gain the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to fall by -.6% versus a -1.2% decline the prior week.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Eurozone PMI data, Japanese inflation data and the weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open lower and to maintain losses into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.