Weekly Outlook

U.S. Week Ahead by MarketWatch (video). 
Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters.
Stocks to Watch Monday by MarketWatch.
Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week modestly lower on rising global growth fears, Mideast unrest, Asia tensions, rising Eurozone debt angst, profit-taking, technical selling and more shorting. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.

Market Week in Review

S&P 500 1,556.89 -.24%*




The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

*5-Day Change

Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices

• S&P 500 1,556.89 -.24%

• DJIA 14,512.0 -.01%

• NASDAQ 3,244.99 -.12%

• Russell 2000 946.27 -.65%

• Value Line Geometric(broad market) 405.94 -.49%

• Russell 1000 Growth 710.96 +.07%

• Russell 1000 Value 794.63 -.52%

• Morgan Stanley Consumer 959.36 +.88%

• Morgan Stanley Cyclical 1,168.64 -.88%

• Morgan Stanley Technology 729.30 -1.59%

• Transports 6,179.26 -1.49%

• Utilities 497.36 +.44%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 92.41 -4.26%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 41.98 -2.45%

• Lyxor L/S Equity Long Bias 1,135.25 -.40%

• Lyxor L/S Equity Variable Bias 850.91 -.13%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 179,518 +.13%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 213 -698

• Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 29.03 -15.81%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 223,721 -1.96%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,647,391 -4.22%

• Total Put/Call .93 +9.41%

• OEX Put/Call .53 -33.75%

• ISE Sentiment 94.0 -27.13%

• NYSE Arms .87 -13.86%

• Volatility(VIX) 13.57 +20.1%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 55.18 -.56%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 9.72 +8.24%

• Smart Money Flow Index 11,394.68 -.81%

• Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.625 Trillion -1.0%

• AAII % Bulls 38.9 -14.3%

• AAII % Bears 33.3 +4.1%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 294.70 -.59%

• Crude Oil 93.71 +.28%

• Reformulated Gasoline 306.25 -2.98%

• Natural Gas 3.93 +1.68%

• Heating Oil 288.43 -2.08%

• Gold 1,606.10 +.93%

• Bloomberg Base Metals Index 202.97 -2.27%

• Copper 346.60 -1.41%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 341.33 USD/Ton -3.22%

• China Iron Ore Spot 135.30 USD/Ton +.52%

• Lumber 381.90 -5.40%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,544.71 -.23%

Economy

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate 6.4% +10 basis points

• Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index .1689 -6.43%

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 114.38 +.12%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 29.10 +2.1 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 54.0% chance of no change, 46.0% chance of 25 basis point cut on 5/1

• US Dollar Index 82.38 +.30%

• Yield Curve 167.0 -7 basis points

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 1.93% -6 basis points

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $3.189 Trillion +1.32%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 38.31 +.71%

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 131.0 -2.07%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 100.95 +3.59%
  

• Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 187.47 +9.41%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 121.29 -6.64%

• Iraq Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 481.09 +7.13%

• China Blended Corporate Spread Index 401.0 +8 basis points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.54% -3 basis points

• TED Spread 21.75 +2.0 basis points

• 2-Year Swap Spread 17.75 +4.25 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -20.50 -4 basis points

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 89.63 +14.2%
  

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 176.35 +23.42%
  

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 255.89 +6.76%
  

• CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread  to Swaps 134.0 +15.0 basis points

• M1 Money Supply $2.421 Trillion -2.1%

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,016.40 -.2%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 339,800 -7,000

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 2.4% unch.

• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 3.54% -9 basis points

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 765.10 -7.1%

• Bloomberg Consumer Comfort -33.9 -2.3 points

• Weekly Retail Sales +2.8% +10 basis points

• Nationwide Gas $3.69/gallon -.01/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 930.0 +5.68%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,107.55 +1.52%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 17.50 unch.

• Rail Freight Carloads 228,806 -2.71%

Best Performing Style

• Small-Cap Value +.07%

Worst Performing Style

• Small-Cap Value -.78%

Leading Sectors

• Oil Tankers +5.8%

• Education +2.9%

• Airlines +2.9%

• Gold & Silver +1.9%

• Foods +1.5%

Lagging Sectors

• Software -3.0% 

• Alt Energy -3.0%

• Networking -3.5%

• Oil Service -4.0%

• Disk Drives -4.8%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (9)

• OMPI, COSH, PTRY, PMTI, WSM, AMAG, VHS, ENV and CNP

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (13)

• TICC, DSW, INCY, TLYS, FF, FDS, CAH, ORCL, FDX, ULTA, TISI, SCHL and WAC

Weekly Charts
ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Euro Bounce, Earnings Optimism, Short-Covering, Telecom/Drug Sector Strength

Broad Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming

Equity Investor Angst:

• VIX 13.67 -2.29%

• ISE Sentiment Index 96.0 +29.73%

• Total Put/Call .91 +3.41%

• NYSE Arms .96 -47.08%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 90.87 -.46%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 176.57 +4.1%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 100.94 -.23%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 255.47 +1.14%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 17.75 +.25 bp

• TED Spread 21.75 -.5 bp

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -20.5 -.25 bp

Economic Gauges:

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .07% +1 bp

• Yield Curve 166.0 -1 bp

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $135.30/Metric Tonne +.82%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 29.10 +.3 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.54 +1 bp

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei Futures: Indicating +127 open in Japan

• DAX Futures: Indicating +19 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my retail, medical, tech, biotech sector longs and emerging markets shorts
• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

Bloomberg:  

• Cyprus Struggles to Meet Bailout Demand as Deadline Looms. European and Cypriot officials were locked in talks to find a formula to avert the Mediterranean island’s financial collapse, struggling to forge consensus on a bailout package before the European Central Bank cuts funding. Cyprus’s options narrowed today after Russia spurned a bid for a loan and coalition lawmakers in Germany dismissed the Cypriot government’s latest rescue proposals. That left the troika of international creditors to hammer out fresh terms with President Nicos Anastasiades’s coalition focusing on the fate of Cyprus’s ailing banks. 
• Cyprus Crisis: Bankers Clashing With Riot Police. (video) 
• U.K. Moves Closer to Losing AAA at Fitch on Debt Concerns. Britain came a step closer to losing its top credit grade at Fitch Ratings after Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne said debt will rise more than previously forecast. The U.K. was placed on rating watch negative, “indicating a heightened probability of a downgrade in the near term,” Fitch said in a statement in London today. The company will complete its review of the grade by the end of April.
• German Business Confidence Unexpectedly Drops. German business confidence unexpectedly fell from a 10-month high in March as Cyprus inflamed the euro region’s debt crisis. The Ifo institute in Munich said its business climate index, based on a survey of 7,000 executives, declined to 106.7 from 107.4 in February. That’s the first drop in five months. Economists predicted a gain to 107.8, according to the median of 42 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey.
• Banks' Use of CDS to Lower Capital Targeted by Basel Regulators. Global regulators are planning to crack down on banks that underestimate their capital requirements because of the way they use credit-default swaps and other instruments to lower the amount of risk on their books. The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision said today that it would seek to stop banks from lowering capital charges by buying instruments such as CDS to insure themselves against losses, while failing to recognize the large liabilities they incur from what they pay for this protection, the group said in a statement on its website. “The proposed changes are intended to ensure that the costs, and not just the benefits of purchased credit protection are appropriately recognized in regulatory capital,” the Basel, Switzerland-based group of international regulators said in a statement. There exists a “potential for capital arbitrage” as banks can book the benefits of these deals without also booking the associated costs, the group said.
• Biased Loans by Auto Dealers to Bring Bank Suits by CFPB. U.S. banks may be sued by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau if they fund discriminatory vehicle loans made by auto dealers, according to new guidance released by the agency. 
• Mortgage Bonds Detect Bernanke Signaling Retreat: Credit Markets. Mortgage investors are signaling increased doubt that the Fed will maintain the current pace of bond purchases much longer as a measure of relative yields on securities it's buying expands to the widest since July. The spread between yields on Fannie Mae mortgage securities that lenders use to finance new 30-year home loans and those on similar Treasuries widened for a second day yesterday, reaching 132 basis points and reversing a week of tightening. Mortgage bonds would be among the first assets affected by a Fed pullback, PIMCO said. 
• Gold Seen Extending Rebound as Cyprus Revives Bulls: Commodities. Gold traders are becoming more bullish as concern mounts that a worsening of Europe’s debt crisis will spur demand for a protection of wealth at a time when nations from the U.S. to Japan are signaling more stimulus. 

MarketWatch:

• Cyprus Bailout: Live Stream.

Fox News:

• Syria's Assad vows to cleanse nation of extremists. President Bashar Assad vowed Friday to "wipe out" Muslim extremists in Syria, blaming them for a suicide bombing at a mosque that killed dozens of people, including a top cleric who supported the embattled regime in the civil war. The death toll from Thursday night's bombing -- the first suicide attack on a mosque in two years of violence in Syria -- rose to 49 after seven of the wounded died overnight, the Health Ministry said. Sheik Mohammad Said Ramadan al-Buti, a top Sunni preacher, was killed as he was giving a sermon in the mosque in the heart of the capital, Damascus. The blast, which also wounded nearly 80 other people, was one of the most brazen assassinations of the civil war, which has seen a number of suicide bombings blamed on Islamic extremists.

CNBC: 

• Europe, Cyprus Locked in a Multi-Billion-Dollar Game of Chicken. With European central bankers locked in a multi-billion-dollar game of chicken with the tiny island nation of Cyprus, the global financial markets Friday were watching closely to see which side blinked first. Both sides, though, appear to be stubbornly holding firm.
• Sprawling and Struggling: Poverty Hits America's Suburbs. 
• Blackberry(BBRY) Z10 Can't Compete With Apple, Android: Analyst. (video)

Zero Hedge: 

• Furious Merkel: "Cyprus’ Decision To Test Europe Is Unacceptable". 
• Cyprus Shifts To Plan 'DD' (Douple-Dip The Large Depositors). 
• Beijing, We Have A Problem: Warehoused Asian Copper Hits Record High. (graph) 
• A Lesson In Magical European "Value Creation".
• Cable Slumps As Fitch Places UK On Rating Watch Negative. 
• Daily Divergence: Pick The Odd One Out. (graphs)

Business Insider:

• The Stock Market Is On Shaky Ground. 
• Lockheed Martin(LMT) Says This Desalination Technology Is An Industry Game-Changer.
• BofA: Here's What The ECB Would Have To Do If Cyprus Left The Euro. 
• ANALYST: The Market Reaction To Cyprus Has Been 'Fantastic' Thanks To 'Massive Manipulation'.

Real Clear Markets:

• QE: A Sedative That Robs The Economy of Vitality.

Reuters:

• Tiffany sees Asia, new silver jewelry fueling sales this year. Tiffany & Co said the pace of its worldwide sales growth would pick up this year, helped by faster growth in Asia and a more compelling selection of lower-price silver jewelry. 
• Huge U.S. corporate cash stash belies weakness -Citi. Corporate America's cash stockpile is hovering near an all-time high of $2 trillion, but some of the money has come from a spike in borrowing by companies taking advantage of interest rates near record lows, Citi analysts said in a research report on Friday. 
• Demand for U.S. stock funds falls amid Cyprus worries -EPFR. Fund investors worldwide gave over $2 billion in new cash to U.S. equity funds in the latest week, a sharp decrease from the previous week as investors grew nervous over Cyprus's debt burden, data from EPFR Global showed on Friday.

Telegraph:

• The truth is that austerity in Britain has barely begun. Why can’t politicians learn to tell it as it is?

Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung:

• Questioning Euro Is Playing With Fire, Schweitzer Says. Newly-appointed head of Germany's DIHK national chamber of commerce Eric Schweitzer says the risk associated with potentially dissolving euro are incalculable. Cyprus should not get preferred treatment compared with Greece, Ireland or Portugal, he said.

Hospodarske Noviny:

• Cyprus crisis is "extremely unpleasant" situation, which will bring new types of risks and will trigger mistrust in governments and banking systems, Sberbank CEO Herman Gref said in an interview. People will start to hedge against the risks, which didn't exist before, including possible tax on bank deposits. Any potential decision on capital transfers would have long-term and exceptionally "serious" impact on Cyprus as most investors would leave the country, he said.

El Pais:

• Spain Mulls Cutting 23% of Weekly Train Routes. Spain's public works ministry may cut 779 train routes unless regions are able to finance those that aren't profitable. 172 train stations with less than avg one passenger a day may be removed, citing a draft submitted to unions.

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +.02%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Disk Drives -1.32% 2) HMOs -1.01% 3) Alt Energy -.90%
  

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

• BSBR, WAL, TPLM, TIBX, HTSI, PAMT, WAC, EVR, TIF, PCYC, SGI, JOSB, LULU, INFA, FSYS, CYMI, QCOR, ANV, PLT, TECD, ASML, CBD, MTN, OCN, INFI, IHS, LAZ and BLOX

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) NKE 2) MMM 3) TIF 4) DHI 5) XLP
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) INFA 2) HUM 3) RAX 4) VMW 5) IBM
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume

• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume