Market Week in Review

S&P 500 1,690.50 -.07%*




The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

*5-Day Change

Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices

• S&P 500 1,690.50 -.07%

• DJIA 15,072.50 -1.22%

• NASDAQ 3,807.75 +.69%

• Russell 2000 1,078.25 +.38%

• S&P 500 High Beta 27.44 +1.09%

• Wilshire 5000 17,827.33 +.10%

• Russell 1000 Growth 790.37 +.13%

• Russell 1000 Value 853.31 -.04%

• Morgan Stanley Consumer 1,016.45 -.50%

• Morgan Stanley Cyclical 1,321.05 +.19%

• Morgan Stanley Technology 829.70 +.44%

• Transports 6,609.75 +.18%

• Utilities 480.0 -.45%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 102.99 +1.40%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 41.80 +.87%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,124.75 +.42%

• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 934.12 -.03%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 190,458 -.20%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 255 +55

• Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 20.0 -17.15%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 320,758 n/a

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,881,081 n/a

• Total Put/Call .87 -7.45%

• OEX Put/Call .87 -92.01%

• ISE Sentiment 92.0 +19.48%

• NYSE Arms .74 -40.80%

• Volatility(VIX) 16.74 +8.28%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 49.73 +4.89%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 8.59 -.46%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 9.77 -3.17%

• Smart Money Flow Index 11,425.66 +.86%

• Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.685 Trillion -.32%

• AAII % Bulls 37.8 +5.0%

• AAII % Bears 30.1 -1.8%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 286.45 -.18%

• Crude Oil 103.84 +1.0%

• Reformulated Gasoline 260.76 -1.49%

• Natural Gas 3.51 -2.26%

• Heating Oil 290.90 +.39%

• Gold 1,309.90 -1.95%

• Bloomberg Base Metals Index 189.25 -1.40%

• Copper 330.10 -.48%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 335.67 USD/Ton unch.

• China Iron Ore Spot 131.40 USD/Ton -.38%

• Lumber 336.80 -1.87%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,429.73 +.09%

Economy

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate 4.8% -10 basis points

• Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index .0976 -5.43%

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 118.69 +.04%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 44.70 -1.8 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index .80 -3.4 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 40.0% chance of no change, 60.0% chance of 25 basis point cut on 10/30

• US Dollar Index 80.12 -.21%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 137.73 -.54%

• Yield Curve 231.0 +2 basis points

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.64% +2 basis points

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $3.704 Trillion +.35%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 40.74 +31.4%

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 178.0 +2.97%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 82.66 -2.64%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 115.53 -3.07%
  

• Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 237.0 -4.24%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 119.84 -.58%

• Egypt Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 668.16 +2.79%

• China Blended Corporate Spread Index 379.0 +1 basis point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.21% +3 basis points

• TED Spread 22.25 -1.5 basis points

• 2-Year Swap Spread 13.25 -.75 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -6.0 +.5 basis point

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 79.73 -1.02%
  

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 135.91 -6.42%
  

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 286.05 -2.69%
  

• CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread  to Swaps 114.0 +4.0 basis points

• M1 Money Supply $2.568 Trillion +.58%

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,054.70 -.90%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 305,000 -3,000

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 2.3% +10 basis points

• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 4.22% -10 basis points

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 450.20 -.38%

• Bloomberg Consumer Comfort -29.4 -1.3 points

• Weekly Retail Sales +3.90% unch.

• Nationwide Gas $3.37/gallon -.05/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 2,084 +1.86%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,090.62 -1.30%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 25.0 unch.

• Rail Freight Carloads 269,853 +2.65%

Best Performing Style

• Small-Cap Growth +.8%

Worst Performing Style

• Large-Cap Value unch.

Leading Sectors

• Hospitals +5.4%

• Coal +5.0%

• Alt Energy +3.8%

• HMOs +3.1%

• Networking +2.8%

Lagging Sectors

• I-Banks -1.3% 

• REITs -1.6%

• Defense -1.7%

• Homebuilders -2.5%

• Gold & Silver -3.6%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (20)

• EDG, CAMP, ACTV, AXDX, CREE, ICGE, CEMP, BPO, GPN, EVHC, SEAC, SATS, UTHR, ONTX, HRB, CTG, CTS, IXYS, BWLD and RRGB

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (11)

• CCG, BECN, WSR, TISI, RECN, DMND, TXI, ICEL, WD, CEVA and ANGI

Weekly Charts
ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Surging into Final Hour on Diminishing US Govt Shutdown Fears, Short-Covering, Techniical Buying, Biotech/Healthcare Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Gaining
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 16.74 -5.26%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 137.71 -.31%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.77 -.31%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 49.10 -5.56%

• ISE Sentiment Index 132.0 +41.94%

• Total Put/Call .88 -8.33%

• NYSE Arms .90 -27.41% 

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 79.29 -1.85%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 135.91 -3.59%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 82.66 +.43%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 286.22 -2.54%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 13.25 -.5 basis point

• TED Spread 22.25 unch.

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -6.0 -.25 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .02% unch.

• Yield Curve 232.0 +3 basis points

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $131.40/Metric Tonne unch.

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 44.70 -.2 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index .80 +1.7 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.21 +1 basis point

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei Futures: Indicating +190 open in Japan

• DAX Futures: Indicating +23 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Higher: On gains in my tech, biotech, medical/retail sector longs 

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and some of my (EEM) short

• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Real’s Turnaround Seen Fleeting as Brazil Bewilders: Currencies. For the world’s biggest foreign-exchange trader, the Brazilian real’s 11 percent rally from a 4 1/2-year low is just another reason to sell one of the “bad apples” of emerging-market currencies. Deutsche Bank AG says a possible credit-rating downgrade and Brazil’s biggest current-account deficit in 11 years will cause the real to reverse recent gains. Speculators agree, with bearish bets on the currency doubling in a month on Latin America’s main stock exchange to a record $20 billion this week. 

• Swiss Regulators Probing Alleged Currency Manipulation. Swiss authorities said they’re investigating several banks for allegedly colluding to manipulate the $5.3 trillion-a-day foreign exchange market. The Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority “is coordinating closely with authorities in other countries as multiple banks around the world are potentially implicated,” it said in a statement today. Separately, the competition commission said it opened a preliminary probe on Sept. 30 after receiving allegations of collusion among banks to manipulate some foreign-exchange rates.

• Europe Stocks Post Second Weekly Drop Amid U.S. Shutdown. European stocks posted a second week of losses as a standoff between U.S. lawmakers led to the first government shutdown in 17 years for the world’s biggest economy. Unilever led food and beverage stocks lower, falling 3.7 percent, after posting a slowdown in quarterly sales growth. Nokian Renkaat Oyj tumbled the most in almost a year after cutting its earnings forecast. Mediobanca SpA and Banca Popolare di Milano Scarl led a rally in Italian banks as Prime Minister Enrico Letta won a confidence vote. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index fell 0.7 percent to 309.89 this week, after declining 0.6 percent in the previous five days. 

• Crude Rises as Tropical Storm Karen Curbs Gulf Output. “The market is paying respect to the storm,” said Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at the Price Futures Group in Chicago. “It’s not going to be a hurricane, but you can’t totally dismiss the storm. It could definitely impact production. People are still worried about the budget standoff.” WTI crude for November delivery increased 19 cents to $103.50 a barrel at 1:53 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The volume of all futures traded was about 44 percent below the 100-day average. Prices are up 0.6 percent this week and 13 percent this year. 

• Gold Falls on Bets U.S. Deadlock Will Be Settled Soon. Gold futures for December delivery fell 0.4 percent to $1,312.30 an ounce at 10:46 a.m. on the Comex in New York. Trading was 28 percent below the average in the past 100 days for this time, data compiled by Bloomberg showed. Earlier, the price swung between gains and losses, climbing as much 0.6 percent.

• Al-Shabaab Terrorists in Kenya Attack Seen as U.S. Threat. Al-Shabaab, the Somali terrorist group behind a four-day attack on a Nairobi shopping mall, threatens U.S. embassies and interests in Africa and potentially on U.S. soil as well, counterterrorism analysts told Congress.

Wall Street Journal:

• White House's Hard Line on Shutdown, Debt Ceiling Has Risks Attached. President Barack Obama is sticking to his stance that he won't negotiate with Republicans over the government shutdown or the higher-stakes fight over the federal debt ceiling. The question, for Republicans and White House allies alike: How long will that resolve last?

CNBC:

• Washington baits, Wall St. doesn't bite on panic. (video) Washington's efforts to scare Wall Street haven't come to much so far.

Zero Hedge:

• Europe Exuberant At US Government Shutdown. (graph)

• Have We Reached Peak Federal Reserve?

• TWTRQ Halted To Protect Idiots From Themselves.

Business Insider:

• BOEHNER UNLOADS: 'THIS ISN'T SOME DAMN GAME'.

• Have Police Explained Why They Shot And Killed An Unarmed Driver At The Capitol Yesterday?

The Daily Caller: 

• Washington hoards government jobs to maximize pain of ‘shutdown’. The nation’s capital has managed to spare itself many of the supposed troubles of the partial government shutdown.

The Washington Times:

• Obamacare phones? Tennesseans offered smartphones for health care registration. Community Health Alliance, Tennessee’s Obamacare health insurance co-op, is offering free smartphones to those who register, as long as they “pledge to stay connected for better health,” the Nashville Business Journal reported.

NBC News:

• Woman in DC chase may have thought Obama was stalking her, sources say. Carey, 34, was a dental hygienist living in Stamford, Conn. Details of her background began to emerge in the hours after the episode. Dr. Barry Weiss, a dentist, told NBC Connecticut that Carey was working for him in January 2012 when she suffered a fall and missed two to three weeks. He said that she appeared increasingly stressed after an unplanned pregnancy. Relatives have said that she may have suffered postpartum depression.

Echoing fears that European policymakers remain in a state of cognitive dissonance – recognizing the need for root-and-branch overhaul of peripheral banks, but backtracking on joint liability plans – Christopher Flowers, the legendary FIG investor who now runs the £2.3 billion ($3.5 billion) private equity group JC Flowers, sounded the alarm over the negative sovereign-bank feedback loop. In a shot across the bows of market bulls, who cite the return of capital flows to weaker eurozone states, Flowers issued a stark warning: "There is a scenario where we have a Lehman-type event: we wake up some Thursday and a big country is in trouble. "And the ECB will have to decide to support banks x, y, z. And then the ECB will, in fact, decide to own bank x, y, z.


While we want you to share, we ask you use the functions on-site rather than copy/paste. See T's & C's for details. http://www.euromoney.com/Article/3211790/CurrentIssue/88924/Restructuring-Flowers-slams-Europe-over-inaction.html?copyrightInfo=true

The Globe and Mail:

• 'Zero' Risk Weighting on Euro Zone Debt is a Charade. The rules encourage banks to load up on debt from the weakest sovereigns, which lets those governments spend beyond their means. The risk of overspending is universal, but most of them can introduce enough inflation to keep away nominal default. Euro zone members do not have that escape route. But the more euro zone debt banks hold, the more damage any government default will do to their balance sheets – and the greater the temptation will be for a euro zone bailout of troubled states and banks. It is an unsatisfactory arrangement.

The Daily Star:

• Special arms for Syria rebels fall into Nusra hands. Some Saudi Arabian-supplied anti-tank missiles intended for mainstream Syrian rebels have inadvertently landed in the hands of the Al-Qaeda linked Nusra Front, throwing plans to arm moderates via neighbor Jordan into question. The failure of the pilot plan has forced Western and Arab opposition backers to reconfigure efforts to arm and vet moderate opposition types, and shift these efforts to the northern, Turkish border, The Daily Star has learned. Senior Free Syrian Army and Jordanian sources, along with video evidence, have confirmed that European-made anti-tank missiles were obtained, and in some cases sold, to the hard-line Nusra Front after being supplied to vetted Free Syrian Army battalions across the Jordanian border.

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +.34%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Homebuilders -2.01% 2) Road & Rail -.32% 3) REITs -.15%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

• TS, FST, VIV, LCI, XRTX, RCII, TASR, ALGN, QIWI, VIPS, ENDP, MHO, KBH, CVRR, TS and Z

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) TIVO 2) MOS 3) HK 4) SNDK 5) JWN
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) TASR 2) GS 3) LEN 4) PBR 5) IP
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume

• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +.79%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) HMOs +1.52% 2) Coal +1.52% 3) Networking +1.39%
  

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• CAMP, STJ, KKD, FTNT, SN, NCLH, LIN, LPI, DWRE, CODE and HRB

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) FTNT 2) AGN 3) MHR 4) GPOR 5) BKS

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) LMT 2) GOOG 3) ADBE 4) PAYX 5) STZ
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume 

• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume