Indices
- Russell 2000 1,114.77 +2.81%
- S&P 500 High Beta 28.55 +3.59%
- Wilshire 5000 18,379.90 +3.24%
- Russell 1000 Growth 812.23 +2.65%
- Russell 1000 Value 882.36 +2.29%
- Morgan Stanley Consumer 1,055.68 +2.24%
- Morgan Stanley Cyclical 1,352.53 +2.15%
- Morgan Stanley Technology 847.08 +2.59%
- Transports 6,830.45 +2.74%
- Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 107.54 +2.13%
- MSCI Emerging Markets 43.16 +1.65%
- HFRX Equity Hedge 1,133.44 +1.66%
- HFRX Equity Market Neutral 941.26 +.73%
Sentiment/Internals
- NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 194,370 +2.09%
- Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 988 +652
- Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 13.16 -68.98%
- CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 320,758 n/a
- CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,881,081 n/a
- Total Put/Call .68 -29.17%
- OEX Put/Call 1.67 +27.48%
- ISE Sentiment 104.0 +28.4%
- Volatility(VIX) 13.04 -20.87%
- S&P 500 Implied Correlation 36.07 -22.72%
- G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 7.63 -8.18%
- Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 8.38 -8.32%
- Smart Money Flow Index 11,688.55 +2.04%
- Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.613 Trillion -1.96%
Futures Spot Prices
- Reformulated Gasoline 267.32 +.39%
- Bloomberg Base Metals Index 192.88 +1.05%
- US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 335.87 USD/Ton +.06%
- China Iron Ore Spot 134.40 USD/Ton +.98%
- UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,446.40 +1.55%
Economy
- ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate 2.8% -100 basis points
- Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index -.1800 +9.87%
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 118.84 unch.
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 23.20 -12.2 points
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -9.60 -5.0 points
- Fed Fund Futures imply 34.0% chance of no change, 66.0% chance of 25 basis point cut on 10/30
- US Dollar Index 79.65 -.94%
- Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 139.57 +.27%
- Yield Curve 226.0 -7 basis points
- 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.58% -11 basis points
- Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $3.770 Trillion +1.47%
- U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 34.02 +.80%
- Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 182.0 -4.75%
- Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 71.32 -1.37%
- Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 102.95 -6.10%
- Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 207.50 -6.10%
- Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 108.83 -4.53%
- Egypt Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 676.08 +.16%
- China Blended Corporate Spread Index 363.0 -7 basis points
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.18% -3 basis points
- TED Spread 22.0 +3.25 basis points
- 2-Year Swap Spread 13.25 unch.
- 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -6.50 +1.0 basis point
- N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 70.91 -8.25%
- European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 120.44 -5.92%
- Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 257.13 -6.77%
- CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread to Swaps 113.0 -1 basis point
- M1 Money Supply $2.552 Trillion -1.88%
- Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,033.70 -3.0%
- 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 336,500 +11,500
- Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 2.2% unch.
- Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 4.28% +5 basis points
- Weekly Mortgage Applications 457.10 +.26%
- Bloomberg Consumer Comfort -34.10 -4.4 points
- Weekly Retail Sales +3.20% -50 basis points
- Nationwide Gas $3.36/gallon +.02/gallon
- Baltic Dry Index 1,901 -4.23%
- China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,010.07 -2.85%
- Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 27.50 +10.0%
- Rail Freight Carloads 260,839 -2.15%
Best Performing Style
Worst Performing Style
Leading Sectors
Lagging Sectors
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (11)
- TUC, SCTY, RCPT, AAP, EOPN, ZEP, UFPI, ERA, ECYT, ENV and PTLA
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (13)
- PHMD, FXCM, FCS, LBY, GY, ELLI, FLIR, OSTK, SWK, UTEK, TDC, TZOO and SCSS
Weekly Charts
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change
Broad Equity Market Tone:
- Advance/Decline Line: Higher
- Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
- Volume: Slightly Below Average
- Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
- Volatility(VIX) 13.32 -1.19%
- Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 139.58 -.03%
- Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.34 -2.34%
- S&P 500 Implied Correlation 36.92 -3.78%
- ISE Sentiment Index 81.0 unch.
- Total Put/Call .67 -23.86%
Credit Investor Angst:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 71.20 -.24%
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 120.37 -3.01%
- Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 71.32 +1.12%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 256.60 -2.71%
- 2-Year Swap Spread 13.25 -.25 basis point
- TED Spread 21.50 +.75 basis point
- 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -6.5 -.25 basis point
Economic Gauges:
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield .03% -1 basis point
- Yield Curve 227.0 -7 unch.
- China Import Iron Ore Spot $134.40/Metric Tonne unch.
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 23.20 -.8 point
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -9.60 -1.0 point
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.18 +1 basis point
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei Futures: Indicating +124 open in Japan
- DAX Futures: Indicating -5 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Higher: On gains in my tech/retail sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: Covered all of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then added them back
- Market Exposure: 75% Net Long
Bloomberg:
- Spanish Banks’ Bad Loans Ratio Climbs to Record 12.1%. Spanish
defaults as a proportion of
total lending climbed to a record in August as companies and
consumers struggled to make loan payments in an economy with an
unemployment rate that’s still above 26 percent. Non-performing loans
accounted for 12.1 percent of lending in August, compared with 12
percent in July and 10.5 percent in the same month a year earlier,
the Bank of Spain said on its website today. The stock of bad loans rose
to 180.7 billion euros ($247.2 billion) during the month as 2 billion
euros of
lending turned sour.
- European Stocks Gain for Seventh Day as China’s GDP Rises. European stocks rose for a seventh day, their longest winning streak this year, as China’s economic growth accelerated for the first time in three quarters. Schindler Holding AG jumped 4.3 percent after the Swiss elevator maker announced a share buyback. Cap Gemini (CAP) SA climbed to six-year high after saying it will repurchase convertible bonds to forestall a potential dilution of equity. Grifols SA fell 3.5 percent after an investor sold a stake in Europe’s largest blood-plasma products maker. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index advanced 0.8 percent to 318.47,
extending its highest level since June 2008.
- Google(GOOG) Surpasses $1,000 for First Time on Ad Optimism.
Google Inc. (GOOG) reached $1,000 for the first time amid optimism
about new advertising for wireless devices and online video, joining a
small club of U.S. stocks. The world’s largest search-engine company
gained a record 13 percent to $1,007.40 before retreating to $1,001.99
at 12:17 p.m. New York time. The stock, sold at $85 in a 2004 initial public offering, has risen every year since except for 2010 and 2008, when it slumped 56 percent during the recession. The Internet company is benefiting from ads for new formats after
expanding beyond delivering advertisements alongside search results on
desktop computers. Google should take 33 percent of the global online-advertising market this year, up from 31 percent in 2012, according to EMarketer Inc.
- Boeing(BA) Cuts 747-8 Output Again as Jumbo-Jet Sales Slump. Boeing Co. (BA) is cutting production again for its 747-8 jumbo jet, the planemaker’s biggest model
ever, as demand continues to dwindle for four-engine aircraft.
The new rate will be 1.5 planes a month instead of 1.75, a
pace that will be maintained through 2015, Boeing said today in
a statement.
Wall Street Journal:
Barron's:
CNBC:
- BoE's Tucker warns on shadow banking risk. Regulators need to "up their game" in overseeing hedge funds and shadow banks
as risky pools of capital build up beyond the heavily scrutinized world of
traditional banking, one of the world's top central bankers has warned.
Zero Hedge:
Business Insider:
Style Underperformer:
Sector Underperformers:
- 1) HMOs -2.18% 2) Biotech -1.44% 3) Steel -1.37%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
- CMRX, ACTG, EVEP, TAM, IPG, UTEK, UNH, ISRG, HUM, ENTA, GPC, BGS, PBCT, NOAH, ASML, WAL, BITA, CI, CTB, KERX, CYT, TSN and CMLP
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
- 1) GOOG 2) RDN 3) SPF 4) GCI 5) MRO
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
- 1) HUM 2) GM 3) ISRG 4) BAX 5) UTEK
Charts:
Style Outperformer:
Sector Outperformers:
- 1) Internet +4.3% 2) Oil Service +1.91% 3) Gaming +1.14%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
- ALGN, ATHN, ANAC, GOOG, SMC, BHI, PH, CHK, VISN, FNSR, IR, BIDU, AMZN, YOKU, SLB, EGOV, ALDW, FSLR, YELP, ANIK, AFOP, CJES, FB, URI, WETF, POL, ZUMZ, GMCR, PIR and EGHT
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
- 1) KKR 2) XLK 3) FLR 4) CAM 5) GOOG
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
- 1) GOOG 2) LVS 3) CMG 4) FB 5) AAPL
Charts:
Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Fault Lines Fracture Rebalanced World Economy: Cutting Research. The rebalancing of global demand
following the financial crisis may mask fault lines that still
threaten the world economy, according to HSBC Holdings Plc and
Deutsche Bank AG. The international economy’s overreliance on U.S. consumer
demand and Chinese exports were among imbalances policy makers
later said helped fuel the turmoil of 2008. By leading to a
misalignment of currencies and leverage, they threw the world
out of kilter, paving the way for its deepest recession since
World War II. While there are some signs the global economy is now on a
more even keel, there may be reasons to worry about how that
shift occurred and how sustainable it is, according to separate
studies published recently by Stephen King at HSBC and Deutsche
Bank’s Thomas Mayer and Markus Jaeger.
- Asian Stocks Climb With Won And Copper as China GDP Grows.
Asian stocks rose, pushing the benchmark index to a five-month high,
and emerging-market currencies gained with copper after China’s economic
growth quickened. U.S. equity-index futures climbed as Google Inc.
sales topped estimates. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 0.2 percent
to at 12:32 p.m. in Tokyo as Australian stocks headed for the highest
close in five years.
- Rebar Swings as Market Weighs China Inventories, Iron Ore Price.
Steel reinforcement-bar futures in Shanghai swung between gains and
losses as an increase in China’s inventory of the material weighed
against an advance in iron ore prices. Rebar for delivery in January on the Shanghai Futures
Exchange fell as much as 0.5 percent and climbed as much as 0.3
percent. The contract was down 0.2 percent at 3,551 yuan ($583)
a metric ton at 10:38 a.m. local time and has lost 1.4 percent
this week.
- Delayed September U.S. Employment Report Coming Out Next Week. The September U.S. employment
figures, delayed by the 16-day partial shutdown of the federal
government that ended today, will be issued on Oct. 22, the
Labor Department said. A total of nine releases were rescheduled, including the
October employment report, which will be pushed back to Nov. 8
from the originally announced Nov. 1, according to an
announcement today on the Labor Department’s website.
Wall Street Journal:
- Fukushima Watch: Protest Filed Vs Decision Not to Indict Tepco. In
the latest chapter in the search for justice following the Fukushima
nuclear disaster, one person filed a protest Wednesday against a
decision by
Tokyo prosecutors not to indict former executives of Tokyo Electric
Power Co., the operator of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant. In
the filing to the Tokyo District Court, Ruiko Muto reiterated her claim
that Tepco executives ignored research findings suggesting a tsunami
more than 10 meters high could reach the plant, and didn’t take steps to
prepare for such a scenario. The group Ms. Muto works with says the
worst nuclear power accident since Chernobyl was caused by human error,
and could have been prevented.
- Jim DeMint: We Won't Back Down on ObamaCare. Fighting a law that is unfair, unworkable and unaffordable is reasonable and necessary.
Now that the government shutdown has ended and the president has
preserved ObamaCare for the time being, it's worth explaining why my
organization, the Heritage Foundation, and other conservatives chose
this moment to
fight—and why we will continue to fight. The reason is simple: to
protect the American people from the harmful effects of this law.
Fox News:
- House panel on Benghazi eyes White House document, Panetta testimony. As they wrap up their 13-month probe into the terrorist attacks in
Benghazi that killed four Americans, congressional investigators have
zeroed in on a press release issued the day before the murders by White
House Press Secretary Jay Carney. They also are seeking fresh testimony from former Defense Secretary Leon Panetta.
CNBC:
- Google(GOOG) shares hit new high after earnings beat.
Google shares hit a new high in after-hours trading Thursday after the
Internet giant's earnings blew past expectations as its advertising
business expanded. Google shares, which are up around 24 percent this year, rose more than 5 percent in after-hours trading, topping $948 a share. The previous high was $924.30, set on July 15. "They
were able to grow their revenue pretty substantially, particularly in
their own websites, in spite of having lower overall ad prices,'' said
JMP Securities analyst Ronald Josey.
Zero Hedge:
Business Insider:
Washington Post:
- Budget deal allows for January federal pay raise. The
budget measure that ended the partial government shutdown allows for
a 1 percent raise for federal employees in January in addition to
providing back pay for those furloughed, according to two Democratic
Maryland senators.
New York Times:
- White House Weighs Easing Sanctions on Iran With Tapered Release of Assets. The
Obama administration, in the wake of a promising first round of nuclear
diplomacy with Iran, is weighing a proposal to ease sanctions on Tehran
by offering it access to billions of dollars in frozen funds if the
Iranian government takes specific steps to curb its nuclear program, a
senior administration official said on Thursday.
The Blaze:
- Glenn Beck ‘Horrified’ by ‘America’s Latest Propaganda Machine’. Glenn Beck on Thursday broached a topic
that he said “horrified” him when it was brought to his attention
roughly two weeks ago, describing it as an “effort to re-write our
history and catalyze a new culture for America” with the help of
“America’s latest propaganda machine.” Beck proceeded to tell his viewers
about two groups, the first called “Imagining America” and the second
called “The U.S. Department of Arts and Culture.” “…So we have the government, radicals, and the universities, and some of
their affiliates are actually public officials. They actually hold
conferences and presentations about how to re-author American history,
and it’s [funded] by you.”
Reuters:
- Intuitive Surgical(ISRG) profit falls, da Vinci sales drop. Intuitive Surgical Inc on Thursday reported lower third-quarter profit as sales of its high-priced da Vinci surgical robots declined sharply.
Intuitive said net profit fell to $157 million, or $3.99 per
share, from $183 million, or $4.46 per share, a year ago. Revenue for the quarter fell 7 percent to $499 million,
missing Wall Street estimates of $526 million compiled by
Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. The company sold 101 da Vinci surgical units in the quarter,
down from 155 a year ago and 143 in the second quarter of this
year.
- Chipotle(CMG) lures more diners, profit jumps.
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc on Thursday reported a 15 percent jump in
quarterly profit after sales at established restaurants rose more than
expected due to an increase in visits from diners. The fast-growing
burrito seller's third-quarter net income rose to $83.4 million or $2.66
per share, from $72.3 million or $2.27 per share, a year earlier.
Chipotle's sales at restaurants open at least 13 months, a closely
watched gauge of industry performance, were up 6.2 percent for the
latest quarter, more than the average analyst estimate of 4.7 percent
compiled by Consensus Metrix. Shares of the Denver-based Chipotle rose 1.9 percent to
$447.50 in after-hours trading.
Sankei:
- A Group of 159 Japanese Lawmakers Visits Yasukuni. Members of a
cross-party group formed by Japanese lawmakers with a common interest in
visiting Yasukuni went to the shrine today for an annual autumn
festival, citing the group.
China Daily:
- Japan PM's Offering to Yasukuni Shrine Same as Visiting. Japanese
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's sending an offering to the Yasukuni Shrine
is no difference than visiting the shrine in person, a commentary said.
The act has hurt the feelings of the Asian nations and challenged the
current international order by hailing back to the spirit of militarism.
China is not taking the act "calmly" as reported by Japan's Kyodo News.
Evening Recommendations
Night Trading
- Asian equity indices are unch. to +.50% on average.
- Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 132.75 +.75 basis point.
- Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 101.25 -3.0 basis points.
- NASDAQ 100 futures +.34%.
Morning Preview Links
Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
Economic Releases
Upcoming Splits
Other Potential Market Movers
- The Fed's Stein speaking, Fed's Evens speaking, Fed's Taruillo speaking and Canadian inflation data could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by commodity and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.
