Thursday, November 21, 2013

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
  • Small-Cap Growth +1.36%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Gaming +1.65% 2) Defense +1.41% 3) I-Banks +1.39%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • CSII, ENT, GMCR, WSM, JCI, DDD, NUS, WTI, DCI, IGT and SSYS
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) TWTR 2) GMCR 3) GME 4) STZ 5) EMN
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) DLTR 2) GMCR 3) TWTR 4) TSLA 5) HOLX
Charts:

Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines 
Bloomberg: 
  • PBOC Says No Longer in China’s ‘Favor’ to Boost Record Reserves. The People’s Bank of China signaled it no longer benefits China to increase its foreign currency reserves that now exceed a record $3.7 trillion. “It’s no longer in China’s favor to accumulate foreign-exchange reserves,” Yi Gang, a deputy governor with the People’s Bank of China said in a speech organized by China Economists 50 Forum at Tsinghua University yesterday. “The marginal cost of accumulating foreign-exchange reserves has exceeded the marginal gains.”   
  • China, India Push Rich Countries to Move First on Climate Change. China and India are stepping up pressure on "wealthy countries" to move first on fighting global warming, saying the earliest industrialized nations are the most to blame for rising temperatures. Speaking at talks involving 190 nations that aim to forge a new treaty to limit greenhouse gas emissions, the developing nations said their richer counterparts should provide more details on a pledge to boost climate aid to $100 billion a year and on how they will cut their own emissions before the poorer countries are required to set their own targets. “We think we are the weaker side,” said Xie Zhenhua, the head of China’s delegation at United Nations climate talks in Warsaw. “They need to fulfill these commitments. They have to provide a timetable and also the size of their contribution. They should have a very clear signal to society.” 
  • China’s Stocks Fall Most in Week on Property Concern, Flash PMI. China’s stocks fell the most in a week after a preliminary manufacturing index trailed economists’ estimates and on speculation the government will announce measures to restrain property-price gains. China Vanke Co. and Poly Real Estate Group Co., the nation’s two biggest developers, slid more than 3 percent. New China Life Insurance Co. dropped the most since July. Shanghai Jahwa United Co. plunged 6 percent to drag down a gauge of consumer-staples producers. Air China Ltd. led a rally for airline companies for a second day. The Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) fell 1.1 percent to 2,183.50 at the 11:30 a.m. break, poised for the biggest loss since Nov. 13.
  • Asian Stocks Outside Japan Fall on Fed Concern, China PMI. Asian stocks outside Japan fell after minutes from the Federal Reserve’s last meeting signaled U.S. stimulus may be reduced in coming months and a gauge of China manufacturing fell more than expected. Samsung Electronics Co., a consumer electronics maker that gets 22 percent of its revenue in America, declined 2.1 percent in Seoul. Prince Frog International Holdings Ltd., a maker of baby-care products suspended after its accounting came under scrutiny by a short-seller, tumbled 18 percent in Hong Kong as it resumed trading. Australand Property Group fell 3.7 percent in Sydney, extending yesterday’s loss, as CapitaLand Ltd. sells part of its 59 percent stake in the developer. The MSCI Asia Pacific excluding Japan Index declined 1.1 percent to 469.86 as of 11:32 a.m. in Hong Kong as all 10 industry groups on the gauge dropped.
  • Rebar Falls as China Manufacturing Data Signal Weak Demand. Steel reinforcement-bar futures in Shanghai declined as a lower-than-estimated manufacturing gauge for China signaled that demand would weaken. Rebar for May delivery, the most-active contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, fell as much as 0.6 percent to 3,623 yuan ($595) a metric ton and was at 3,626 yuan at 10:46 a.m. local time. Prices rose 1.5 percent in the previous two days.
  • Goldman(GS) Sees Significant Losses for Iron Ore, Gold in 2014. Iron ore, gold, soybeans and copper will probably drop at least 15 percent next year as commodities face increased downside risks even as economic growth in the U.S. accelerates, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. The risks are strongest for iron ore, and follow increases in supplies, analysts including Jeffrey Currie wrote in a report yesterday that identified the New York-based bank’s top 10 market themes for the coming year. Price pressures will mostly become visible later in 2014, the analysts wrote, forecasting that bullion, copper and soybeans will decline to the lowest levels since 2010. 
  • CFTC’s Chilton Says He’d Vote Against Current Volcker Rule. The Volcker rule that U.S. regulators are trying to complete this year doesn’t do enough to limits banks’ ability to make speculative bets, said Bart Chilton, a member of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. “There would be no sense even doing a final rule if what is currently being considered on hedging remains the same,” said Chilton, referring to the rule banning proprietary trading, in a telephone interview today. He said he is prepared to vote against the rule as it’s currently drafted.
  • EU Risks Violating Bank-Capital Pact, Basel Member Says. The European Union risks violating international bank-capital standards and its implementing law should face a rigorous review by global regulators, a Swedish member of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision warned.
  • Wells Fargo’s(WFC) Stumpf Dislikes Fed Bond Buys That Punish Savers. John Stumpf, chief executive officer at Wells Fargo & Co., said he dislikes Federal Reserve monthly bond purchases at this point in the economic cycle and that the policy has hurt savers. “I’m not a big fan of QE this late in the recovery,” Stumpf said today at The Year Ahead: 2014, a two-day conference sponsored by Bloomberg LP in Chicago. He was referring to the Fed’s bond purchases, known as quantitative easing. “QE, while it’s helped borrowers, has really punished savers,” he said.
  • Anxiety Over Asset Bubbles From Homes to Internet Rising in Poll. Asset bubbles are forming in Internet and social media stocks as well as in the housing markets of London and China, according to the latest Bloomberg Global Poll. Eighty-two percent of the responding investors, analysts and traders who are Bloomberg subscribers said Internet and social media shares are either at or near unsustainable levels. Seventy-three percent said the same of Chinese house prices and 69 percent identified London homes as already or almost frothy. They were less concerned about U.S. housing, with 31 percent seeing prices approaching or at excessive levels. “Liquidity is still plentiful and central banks are reflating,” said Kenneth Broux, a strategist at Societe Generale SA in London and a poll participant. “Property is the obvious bubble candidate.”
Wall Street Journal: 
  • Fed Casts About for Endgame on Easy-Money Policy. Federal Reserve officials, mindful of a still-fragile economy, are laboring to devise a strategy to avoid another round of market turmoil when they pull back on one of their signature easy-money programs in the months ahead. Central-bank officials have been debating for months when to start paring the $85 billion-a-month bond-purchase program. They were surprised during the summer when their discussions and public pronouncements on the potential timing rocked markets, pushing interest rates higher and stock prices down. Minutes of the Oct. 29-30 policy meeting, released Wednesday, showed officials continued to look toward ending the bond-buying program "in coming months." But they spent hours game-planning how to handle unexpected developments and tailoring a message to the public to soften the impact of the program's end.
  • BMW, Cadillac Aim to Pull Plug on Tesla(TSLA) With Pricey New Cars. Tesla Motors Inc. is about to get deep pocketed rivals in the luxury electric luxury car market after largely having the business to itself since the 2012 launch of the Model S sedan. BMW AG, General Motors Co.'s Cadillac and Volkswagen AG's Porsche and Audi brands are among the luxury brands using this week's Los Angeles Auto Show to promote new plug-in models aimed at affluent, eco-conscious Californians who make up the heart of Tesla's buyers. While models such as the BMW i3 and i8, the Cadillac ELR or Porsche's plug-in Panamera sedan offer different propulsion technology from the Tesla Model S and different body styles, they are all cars that get much of their energy from the electric grid instead of a gasoline pump.
  • Nicole Hopkins: ObamaCare Forced Mom Into Medicaid. My mother preferred to pay for her care rather than be on the government dole. Now she has no choice. My mother is not one to seek attention by complaining, so her recent woeful Facebook FB +0.15% post caught my eye: "The poor get poorer." It diverged from the more customary stream of inspirational quotes, recipes and snapshots from her tiny cottage in Pierce County, Wash.
CNBC: 
  • Fed sends markets tapering message. The Federal Reserve looks set to move sooner rather than later to taper back its bond buying, once more surprising markets that have been repeatedly confused about when the Fed will begin to step back from its extraordinary easing policy.
  • Are the cracks in the euro starting to show? (video) The resilient euro may have bounced back from this month's interest rate cut from the European Central Bank (ECB), but recovering from talk that the ECB is mulling negative deposit rates could be much harder, analysts say.
Zero Hedge: 
Business Insider: 
The Fiscal Times: 
Reuters:
  • U.S. could run out of cash in March under debt ceiling - CBO. The United States could start missing payments on its obligations some time between March and June if lawmakers don't raise a legal limit on borrowing by early February, congressional analysts said on Wednesday. The Obama administration was able to bump against the government's debt ceiling for five months this year before it came to the brink of default.
  • Green Mountain(GMCR) sees strong revenue in second half of 2014. K-cup coffee pods maker Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc said it expected stronger revenue in the second half of its fiscal 2014 as it converts unlicensed coffee pod makers to licensed partners. The company, however, gave a cautious current-quarter forecast, citing a transition to a new brewing system and weakness in U.S. consumer spending. Shares of Green Mountain, which also approved a share repurchase program of up to $1 billion, were up 4 percent in extended trading.
Telegraph:
FAZ:
  • Schaeuble's Advisers See Up to 1.8m German Jobs at Risk. Country's Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble's experts calculated combined effects of plans from CDU, CSU and SPD amid coalition talks. Plans include pension programs and minimum wage.
Yonhap News: 
China Daily:
  • China to Raise Taxes for Possessing Properties. China will increase taxes for owning properties, Finance Minister Lou Jiwei said in an interview. China will start levying consumption taxes for some resources and high-end consumer goods, according to Lou.
Evening Recommendations
Deutsche Bank:
  • Rated (RAD) Buy, target $7.
  • Rated (MCK) Buy, target $181. 
  • Rated (WAG) Buy, target $73.
Night Trading
  • Asian equity indices are -1.25% to -.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 132.50 +.5 basis point.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 104.25 +2.5 basis points. 
  • FTSE-100 futures -.49%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.16%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.11%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate
  • (DLTR)/.60
  • (SHLD)/-3.14
  • (PDCO)/.48
  • (PERY)/-.16
  • (DCI)/.39
  • (SSI)/-.26
  • (ROST)/.80
  • (GME)/.57
  • (TGT)/.62
  • (ANF)/.44
  • (BKE)/.89
  • (GPS)/.70
  • (INTU)/-.09
  • (TFM)/.26
  • (ADSK)/.39
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • Initial Jobless Claims are estimated to fall to 335K versus 339K the prior week.
  • Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 2870K versus 2874K prior.
  • The Producer Price Index for October is estimated to fall -.2% versus a -.1% decline in September.
  • The PPI Ex Food and Energy for October is estimated to rise +.1% versus a +.1% gain in September.
8:58 am EST
  • The Preliminary Markit US PMI for November is estimated at 52.3.
10:00 am EST
  • The Philly Fed for November is estimated to fall to 15.0 versus 19.8 in October.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Yellen confirmation vote, Fed's Lacker speaking, Fed's Bullard speaking, Fed's Powell speaking, BoJ decision, Eurozone PMI, 10Y Treasury TIPS auction, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, Bloomberg Economic Expectations Index for November, weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index, (RIG) analyst day and the (INTC) investor meeting could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by financial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

Wednesday, November 20, 2013

Stocks Dropping into Final Hour on Rising Long-Term Rates, Rising Emerging Markets Debt Angst, Fed Taper Worries, REIT/Commodities Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 13.41 +.15%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 140.05 -.92%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.54 +.95%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 33.41 n/a
  • ISE Sentiment Index 126.0 -18.18%
  • Total Put/Call .96 +18.52%
  • NYSE Arms 1.08 +7.71% 
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 72.74 -.01%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 106.16 -2.77%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 62.33 -.26%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 298.67 +2.13%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 10.50 -.75 basis point
  • TED Spread 16.25 -.5 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -2.75 -.5 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .08% +1 basis points
  • Yield Curve 252.0 +10 basis points
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $136.40/Metric Tonne +.07%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 6.90 +1.7 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -14.90 -1.0 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.17 -2 basis points
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei Futures: Indicating +96 open in Japan
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -51 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Higher: On gains in my biotech sector longs, emerging markets shorts and index hedges
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 25% Net Long

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
  • High-Yield Borrowing Costs Decline to Record Low of 5% in Europe. Borrowing costs for junk-rated companies fell to a record in Europe as investors seek riskier debt amid confidence central banks will keep benchmark rates at all-time lows. The average yield on speculative-grade corporate bonds in euros dropped three basis points this week to 5 percent, Bank of America Merrill Lynch index data show. The cost of insuring the securities against losses fell to the lowest in six years, with the Markit iTraxx Crossover index dropping as much as 5.4 basis points to 332 basis points. The gauge was at 334 basis points at 1:53 p.m. in London. “There’s tremendous demand for higher yielding product,” said Suki Mann, a strategist at Societe Generale SA in London. “With the ECB and Fed in dovish mood, it’s more of the same in the medium term.” Non-financial companies raised a record 65 billion euros ($88 billion) from junk bond sales in Europe this year, up from 31 billion euros over the same period in 2012, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
  • Chinese Hackers Seen Exploiting Cloud to Spy on U.S. China-based hackers may target Internet-based e-mail, data storage and other services provided overseas by such companies as Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) to spy on the U.S., a congressional commission found
  • Europe Stocks Little Changed as Investors Weigh U.S. Data. European stocks were little changed as investors weighed U.S. retail and home-sales (ETSLTOTL) data, as well as comments from people familiar with the debate saying the European Central Bank is considering a smaller-than-normal cut in the deposit rate if officials decide to take it negative. Metro AG climbed 2.4 percent after Barclays Plc upgraded its recommendation on the retailer. Diageo Plc dropped 1.2 percent after Chief Executive Officer Ivan Menezes said uncertainties in the global economy will drag on sales. Alcatel-Lucent slid 3.5 percent after announcing a capital increase. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index climbed 0.1 percent to 322.91 at the close of trading.
  • U.S. 10-Year Yields at Almost 2-Month High on Fed Taper Outlook. Treasury 10-year yields rose to almost the highest level in two months as Federal Reserve officials said they might reduce their $85 billion in monthly bond purchases “in coming months” as the economy improves, minutes of their last meeting show. Benchmark yields rose for a second day as Fed Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said a cutback in the central bank’s purchase program is “on the table” for the December meeting. Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said yesterday interest rates will probably stay low until long after policy makers end debt purchases. Five percent of investors surveyed are looking next month for a Fed decision to taper, according to the latest Bloomberg Global Poll.
  • Bullard Says Tapering Bond Buying Is ‘On the Table’ Next Month. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard, a voter on policy this year who has backed record stimulus, said that a strong jobs report could increase the chance of a reduction in bond purchases next month. “It’s definitely on the table, but it’s going to depend on the data,” Bullard said in a Bloomberg Television interview with Erik Schatzker. “A strong jobs report, I think, would increase the probability some for a December taper.”
  • Taxpayer-Funded Technology Flops Plague U.S. Government. Almost a decade before the Obamacare website’s failed debut, the Air Force began work on a project to replace 240 outdated networks with a single logistics system. After spending about $1 billion, the program led by Computer Sciences Corp. collapsed last year. Senators Carl Levin and John McCain described it as “one of the most egregious examples of mismanagement in recent memory.” The list of federal information-technology lapses and flops includes systems to modernize air-traffic control and to secure the nation’s border, and now even President Barack Obama is wondering why the government can’t get it right. 
  • Wall Street Keeps Swagger in CMBS as Sales Surge: Credit Markets. With almost six weeks to go in 2013, sales of commercial-mortgage bonds are already surpassing Wall Street’s forecasts for the year, defying concern that rising interest rates would stymie new deals. Issuance of the securities is poised to exceed $80 billion, eclipsing the $60 billion that Barclays Plc predicted in January, according to analysts at the bank. Lenders have arranged $65.5 billion of offerings this year and another $14.5 billion is in the works, including a $3.5 billion deal tied to Hilton Worldwide Inc. that will be the largest such offering since before the credit crisis, Bank of America Corp. data show. The average cost to borrow in the CMBS market climbed to as high as 5.38 percent in deals sold earlier this month after dipping to as low as 3.9 percent in June, Bank of America data show. The increase hasn’t discouraged landlords from seeking new loans as had been anticipated, according to Alan Todd, a commercial-mortgage debt analyst at Bank of America in New York. “A lot of borrowers are getting off the sidelines before rates go up again,” he said.
Wall Street Journal:
  • Fed Grappled With Policy Message. Bond Buying Likely to Be Pared 'in Coming Months,' but Low Rates Prove Vexing. Federal Reserve officials still expect to start pulling back on the central bank's $85 billion-a-month bond-buying program "in coming months," but they engaged in a wide-ranging conversation at their October meeting about ways to reinforce their plans to keep short-term interest rates low for a long time after the program ends. Officials "generally expected that the data would prove consistent with the [Fed's] outlook for ongoing improvement in labor market conditions and would thus warrant trimming the pace of purchases in coming months," minutes from the Fed's Oct. 29-30 meeting said. The minutes were released Wednesday after the customary three-week lag. Officials also looked at different scenarios that could differ from their expectations for how the economy or the bond-buying program would evolve. One scenario they considered was if officials decided they needed to roll back the program before it had fully achieved its goals because they perceived its costs had started to outweigh the benefits. Two considerations came up under such a view, according to the minutes. First, the Fed would need to clearly communicate to the public the reasons it was making the decision to pull back, some officials said. Secondly, the Fed may want to find a different way to stimulate the economy. "It might well be appropriate to offset the effects of reduced purchases by undertaking alternative actions to provide accommodation at the same time," the minutes said.
MarketWatch: 
  • Gold futures mark lowest close since mid-July. Prices fall further in electronic trade after the release of Fed meeting minutes. In electronic trading not long after the release of the minutes, prices traded even lower at $1,251.70 an ounce.
CNBC: 
Zero Hedge: 
ValueWalk:
Business Insider: 
New York Times:
  • Dozens Killed in Wave of Attacks in Baghdad. A wave of apparently coordinated bombings hit bakeries and public markets in Baghdad on Wednesday, killing at least 37 people and wounding more than 80, many of them as they rushed to shop during a break in heavy rainstorms, according to the police, residents and medical officials.
Time:
  • ‘You Can Keep Your Doctor’: Obamacare’s Next Broken Promise? Barack Obama’s broken promise that all Americans would be able to keep their health care plans after the implementation of the Affordable Care Act has infuriated people who took the President at his word and rattled even his staunchest supporters. But for the President, the real political pain may only be starting. Come 2014, the rest of the country may learn that another high-profile pledge was untrue. “No matter how we reform health care,” Obama said in 2009, “we will keep this promise: if you like your doctor, you will be able to keep your doctor. Period.” It’s not that simple. In order to participate in health-insurance exchanges, insurers needed to find a way to tamp down the high costs of premiums. As a result, many will narrow their networks, shrinking the range of doctors that are available to patients under their plan, experts say.
Washington Times:
  • Obama’s 37% approval rating approaches Nixon’s second-term average. A new CBS poll puts the President’s sinking approval rating at an abysmal 37%. Only 57% approve of President Obama’s job performance due, in large part, to the bungling of the Affordable Care Act roll out.  For the President, it is a stunning nine-point drop in a one month period.
ABC News:
  • Exclusive: US May Have Let 'Dozens' of Terrorists Into Country As Refugees. (video) Several dozen suspected terrorist bombmakers, including some believed to have targeted American troops, may have mistakenly been allowed to move to the United States as war refugees, according to FBI agents investigating the remnants of roadside bombs recovered from Iraq and Afghanistan.
Euromoney:

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:
  • Large-Cap Value -.02%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Gold & Silver -1.06% 2) Utilities -.82% 3) Agriculture -.64%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
  • SSW, DWRE, ICLD, SJM, SPSC, SGMS, CHKR, CPB, DDD, LOW, HOLI, NHI, EBAY, PRLB, SFM, CHRW, BA, GTLS, SSYS, FF, FGP, HIBB, HPY, CHUY, SQM and AMRI
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) ADT 2) DE 3) ADSK 4) MNST 5) DKS
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) CSCO 2) TSLA 3) SJM 4) LOW 5) CHRW
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
  • Small-Cap Growth +.43%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) HMOs +1.62% 2) Biotech +1.58% 3) Hospitals +1.12%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • LZB, ETE, BMRN, GTN, YPF, PVA, TSL and NQ
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) STSI 2) NFX 3) DE 4) OLN 5) ABC
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) JCP 2) DVN 3) HD 4) QCOM 5) DDD
Charts: