Indices
- Russell 2000 1,193.73 +1.04%
- S&P 500 High Beta 31.26 +1.92%
- Wilshire 5000 19,703.90 +1.28%
- Russell 1000 Growth 873.76 +.75%
- Russell 1000 Value 941.69 +1.85%
- S&P 500 Consumer Staples 436.91 +.46%
- Morgan Stanley Cyclical 1,500.78 +2.35%
- Morgan Stanley Technology 935.84 +2.48%
- Transports 7,515.18 +.53%
- Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 108.14 +2.29%
- MSCI Emerging Markets 38.90 +.66%
- HFRX Equity Hedge 1,182.57 -.09%
- HFRX Equity Market Neutral 967.32 +.44%
Sentiment/Internals
- NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 209,792 +.89%
- Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 163 +76
- Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 30.77 +60.0%
- CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 384,285 -5.54%
- CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,623,266 -4.36%
- Total Put/Call .89 +15.58%
- OEX Put/Call 1.03 +11.96%
- ISE Sentiment 113.0 +41.25%
- Volatility(VIX) 15.0 -15.82%
- S&P 500 Implied Correlation 54.34 -7.93%
- G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 7.23 -4.87%
- Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 8.98 -1.1%
- Smart Money Flow Index 11,588.07 -.15%
- ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.646 Trillion -1.17%
- ICI US Equity Weekly Net New Cash Flow +$1.902 Billion
- AAII % Bulls 36.8 -11.0%
- AAII % Bears 26.2 -2.5%
Futures Spot Prices
- Reformulated Gasoline 291.67 -1.58%
- Bloomberg Base Metals Index 182.35 +.14%
- US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 362.67 USD/Ton -2.75%
- China Iron Ore Spot 110.70 USD/Ton +.54%
- UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,482.22 -1.12%
Economy
- ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate 2.3% unch.
- Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index .1397 -7.11%
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 121.26 +.12%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index -32.60 +.1 point
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -4.20 +3.8 points
- Fed Fund Futures imply 36.0% chance of no change, 64.0% chance of 25 basis point cut on 4/30
- US Dollar Index 80.11 +.89%
- Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 147.18 +.03%
- Yield Curve 232.0 +1 basis point
- 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.74% +9 basis points
- Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.179 Trillion +.98%
- U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 22.66 -13.44%
- Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 141.0 +1.44%
- Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 43.18 -6.25%
- Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 95.86 -5.08%
- Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 289.61 -4.91%
- Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 88.50 +.35%
- Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 273.99 -1.50%
- China Blended Corporate Spread Index 380.51 +.36%
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.15% -3 basis points
- TED Spread 18.75 -.25 basis point
- 2-Year Swap Spread 13.75 -.5 basis point
- 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -2.5 +1.75 basis points
- N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 69.38 +3.71%
- European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 98.0 +4.02%
- Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 316.88 -3.57%
- CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread to Swaps 88.50 -8.5 basis points
- M1 Money Supply $2.793 Trillion -.79%
- Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,019.20 -.20%
- 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 338,500 +5,000
- Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 2.2% unch.
- Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 4.32% -5 basis points
- Weekly Mortgage Applications 369.0 -1.15%
- Bloomberg Consumer Comfort -29.0 -1.4 points
- Weekly Retail Sales +2.6% +10 basis points
- Nationwide Gas $3.53/gallon +.02/gallon
- Baltic Dry Index 1,621 +9.75%
- China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,068.62 -.63%
- Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 27.50 -8.33%
- Rail Freight Carloads 255,951 +4.91%
Best Performing Style
Worst Performing Style
Leading Sectors
Lagging Sectors
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (15)
- SGK, FSLR, HZNP, FF, ULTA, MRCY, FPRX, STAA, SHLO, RCAP, TLYS, EXAS, HMTV, OMER and VRA
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (2)
Weekly Charts
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change
Broad Equity Market Tone:
- Advance/Decline Line: Lower
- Sector Performance: Mixed
- Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
- Volatility(VIX) 14.79 +1.86%
- Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 147.13 -.02%
- Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.98 -1.54%
- S&P 500 Implied Correlation 53.68 +2.40%
- ISE Sentiment Index 125.0 -28.57%
- Total Put/Call .80 +6.67%
Credit Investor Angst:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 70.19 -2.05%
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 98.0 -1.43%
- Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 46.75 -1.27%
- Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 95.75 -.94%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 316.90 -1.84%
- China Blended Corporate Spread Index 380.50 -1.14%
- 2-Year Swap Spread 13.75 +1.0 basis point
- TED Spread 18.75 +.5 basis point
- 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -2.5 +1.0 basis point
Economic Gauges:
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield .05% unch.
- Yield Curve 232.0 -3.0 basis points
- China Import Iron Ore Spot $110.70/Metric Tonne unch.
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index -32.60 unch.
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -4.20 +.1 point
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.15 +1.0 basis point
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei Futures: Indicating +125 open in Japan
- DAX Futures: Indicating -41 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Lower: On losses in my biotech/medical sector longs and emerging markets shorts
- Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and took some profits in my biotech sector longs
- Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long
Bloomberg:
- Putin Clears Crimea Annexation as Ukraine Signs EU Pact. Russia
completed its annexation of Crimea as the European Union signed an
accord with Ukraine and expanded sanctions, escalating the worst
standoff between Russia and the West since the Cold War. President
Vladimir Putin put his signature in Moscow to legislation to absorb the
Black Sea peninsula and its port of Sevastopol from Ukraine. In
Brussels, the EU and Ukraine put the seal on the political part of an
association agreement, whose rejection last year by ousted Ukrainian
President Viktor Yanukovych triggered the dispute between Russia and its
former Soviet-era enemies.
The 28-nation bloc also blacklisted 12 Russian and Crimean political
and military figures.
- Europe Stocks Are Little Changed After Confidence Report.
European stocks were little
changed, with the Stoxx Europe 600 Index posting its biggest weekly gain
in five weeks, as consumer confidence increased more than forecast,
while derivatives contracts expired. Rio Tinto Group rose 1.6 percent as
copper rebounded. Commerzbank AG climbed 2.5 percent as Morgan Stanley
upgraded its rating on the German lender. Havas SA lost 1.8 percent
after posting 2013 profit that fell short of analysts’ estimates. Remy
Cointreau SA retreated the most since November as UBS predicted China’s
anti-extravagance measures will continue to cut into the
cognac-maker’s profit.
The Stoxx 600 gained 0.1 percent to 327.91 at the close of
trading.
- Oil-Tanker Glut Deja Vu Souring Ross, Ardmore Investments. Here we go again. Six years after shipowners ordered too many vessels before
the global recession, driving down rates and leaving new ships
anchored for lack of cargoes, investors are souring again on
oil-product tankers in the face of a new glut.
- Sell Signal for Stocks Seen as Bears Roar in Executive Offices.
Bears are prowling in corner
offices even as the stock market climbs to an all-time high. Executives
are dumping shares of their own companies at a rate suggesting the
market may be near a short-term peak, according to Argus Research. The
firm tracked an index of insider transactions from Vickers Stock
Research. While the measure considers numerous factors, the bottom line is clear: at
negative 19.88, the index is approaching a record low of
negative 21.44. “Insiders as a group do not see compelling near-term value
in stocks,” Argus wrote in a report today. “Insiders have a
habit of being bullish at market bottoms and bearish when
markets are top-heavy.”
Wall Street Journal:
Fox News:
CNBC:
ZeroHedge:
Business Insider:
CNN:
- Subprime mortgages making a comeback.
Once synonymous with toxic, adjustable-rate mortgages -- like the
"exploding ARMs" that led many homeowners to lose their homes to
foreclosure during the housing bust -- subprime mortgages are once
again being offered to borrowers who pose a higher credit risk,
typically those with credit scores that fall below 640.
CBS News:
Reuters:
- Shanghai rebar falls for 6th week, HRC slips on debut. Shanghai rebar futures fell
1 percent on Friday and dropped for a sixth consecutive week
amid lean steel demand that has led to an uneventful debut of
China's hot-rolled coil contracts. A seasonal pickup in construction demand in China may not be
strong enough to support steel prices as the overall economy
faces headwinds from weak external demand that has hit its
manufacturing sector, and a reform-minded Beijing. The most-traded rebar for October delivery on the Shanghai
Futures Exchange gave up 34 yuan to close at 3,220 yuan
($520) a tonne, after falling as low as 3,211 yuan. Rebar, a construction steel product, was down 0.6 percent
for the week, its sixth weekly fall since Chinese markets
reopened after the Lunar New Year break in early February.
- Fed's Fisher asks, is rate guidance just a fad? A top U.S. Federal
Reserve official critical of the U.S. central bank's super-easy monetary
policy on Friday questioned the very core of the Fed's current
approach, which rests on giving markets a better sense of the future path of interest rates. He wants the Fed to wind down its bond-buying stimulus as quickly as possible.
Telegraph:
Style Underperformer:
Sector Underperformers:
- 1) Biotech -3.01% 2) Homebuilders -1.21% 3) Software -.71%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
- CMGE, CRTO, SYMC, PBF, DATA, RALY, ZION, IBB, AIR, AMRI, NKE, BIB, SGMO, CHL, GILD, EXAS, SSTK, RGDO, BIIB, USMO, MONT, BT, LGF, NMBL, OMED, RYL, SSTK, IRBT, SCTY, ENLK, ALXN, NOW, INCY, ANAC, SGMO and CLDX
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
- 1) OXY 2) CNX 3) CHS 4) AKS 5) NKE
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
- 1) GILD 2) VZ 3) LNKD 4) HLF 5) LEN
Charts:
Style Outperformer:
Sector Outperformers:
- 1) Steel +2.21% 2) Oil Service +1.62% 3) Utilities +1.34%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
- ECYT, LIN, ANN, SBGI, ITMN, NXST, GTN, SBGI and FNSR
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
- 1) SYMC 2) MON 3) ECYT 4) EXC 5) ARCP
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
- 1) T 2) BK 3) NKE 4) TIF 5) RL
Charts:
Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Putin’s Words No Solace as East Ukraine Braces for Storm. Vladimir
Putin’s assurances that eastern Ukraine isn’t in his cross hairs rang
hollow in the beat-up black Lada taking Anna Gerashchenko to a makeshift
army outpost on the Russian border. “I’m helping the troops because I’m afraid eastern Ukraine
will soon look like Crimea,” said Gerashchenko, a 35-year-old
NGO worker, as she ferried a trunk full of cookies, socks and
blankets to soldiers of her country’s underfunded army with her
two young children in the backseat for the bumpy 25-kilometer
(16 miles) drive from Kharkiv. “It doesn’t matter what Putin
says. He’s a liar.”
- Russia-Ukraine Crisis Threatens Europe Economy: Cutting Research. Europe’s economy is vulnerable to
ripple effects from the crisis in Russia and Ukraine. As the European Union, the U.S. and Canada look to take
coordinated action to pressure Russia to back off its annexation
of Crimea, economists at Morgan Stanley and Deutsche Bank AG
released reports yesterday analyzing the potential for fallout
on Europe’s economy should the crisis spread. The impact could be transmitted through finance if Russia
grabs assets or if the creditworthiness of its assets declines,
said Gilles Moec and Marco Stringa, London-based economists at
Deutsche Bank. Among other channels, world trade may be roiled
by a drop in Russian imports or if Russia holds back exports of
its energy.
- China’s Top Banks Seen Posting Slower Profit Growth Amid Reform. Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd. and its three largest rivals are poised to report the slowest profit growth since the 2008 financial crisis amid surging bad loans and more competition for deposits. ICBC, China Construction Bank Corp.,
Agricultural Bank of China Ltd. and Bank of China Ltd. will probably
report combined net income next week of 791 billion yuan ($127 billion)
for 2013, 11 percent more than the previous year, according to analyst
estimates in a Bloomberg survey. The growth may slow to 7 percent this
year, compared with a 17 percent increase forecast for the four largest
U.S. and European banks.
- China Funds Post Record Outflows as ETF Money Exits Bear Market. Chinese equity funds are posting
their biggest outflows on record as concern deepens that the
world’s second-largest economy is slowing. Investors pulled out a net $1.5 billion in the week through
March 19, of which $1.3 billion came from exchange-traded funds,
Citigroup Inc. said today, citing EPFR Global. Emerging-market
funds had outflows of $4.1 billion in the 21st straight week of
withdrawals, analysts Markus Rosgen and Yue Hin Pong wrote in a
report, while European funds had inflows for a 38th week.
- China Slowdown Seen Worst for Norway as Oil Key to Growth.
Norway’s reliance on oil means it faces a bigger risk than most other
countries from a slowing expansion in China, according to Hilde
Bjoernland, an economics professor at the BI Norwegian Business School.
“If China is in a bubble, that would be bad for everyone
but even worse for the Norwegian economy because reduced demand
from China would bring down oil prices,” Bjoernland said in an
interview in Oslo this week.
- China Beige Book Says Economy Slowing. China’s
economy slowed this quarter, with industries including retail and
mining showing weaker revenue growth while loans through non-traditional
channels became more expensive, according to a private survey. Even
with the moderation, the labor market and wage growth were little
changed from the previous quarter, according to the China Beige Book
survey, published by New York-based CBB International.
- Korean Stocks Rally as Gold Gains; Oil Falls With Ringgit.
Korean and Australian stocks
rallied, pushing benchmark indexes up from the lowest levels in
more than a month, after signs of economic strength fueled a
rebound in U.S. shares. Gold drove gains in precious metals
while oil fell along with the Korean and Malaysian currencies. The Kospi
Index (KOSPI) jumped 0.6 percent by 9:57 a.m. in Seoul, rising from the
lowest close since Feb. 6 as Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index gained
0.4 percent with Japan’s markets closed. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index
futures lost 0.1 percent after the gauge climbed 0.6 percent. Gold and
silver advanced for the first time in five days while oil in New York
fell a second day,
losing 0.3 percent. The Korean won reached a six-week low as
Malaysia’s ringgit slipped a third day. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 0.1 percent today, paring
its second weekly drop to 1.6 percent.
- Corn Drops on Speculation Chinese Demand Will Slow for U.S. Crop. Corn prices dropped for the first
time in three sessions on speculation that China may reduce imports of U.S. grain as domestic inventories swell. Wheat also fell, while soybeans gained. Supplies held in Chinese government silos may reach 60
million metric tons before the start of this year’s harvest, Fred Gale,
an economist with the U.S. Department of Agriculture, said today. Demand
has slowed from poultry farmers as cases of human infections of the
H7N9 avian influenza spread. Stockpiles held by the state and by farmers
and consumers may rise 10 percent from a year earlier to 72 million
tons by Sept. 30, the USDA has forecast. “Chinese demand is slowing, and that can have repercussions for the next year,” Peter Meyer, the senior director of agricultural commodities for Pira Energy Group in New York, said in a telephone interview.
- Hot-Rolled Coil Futures Debut in Shanghai to Complement Rebar. Hot-rolled
coil futures make their debut today on the Shanghai Futures Exchange as
China pushes to expand its commodities trading from raw materials to
steel products. The market opens at 9 a.m. local time for nine monthly
contracts for delivery from July to March 2015, according to the
nation’s largest metals bourse. Hot-rolled coil is used to make
steel sheets for cars and home appliances.
- Caterpillar(CAT) Said to Be Focus of Senate Overseas Tax Probe. A U.S.
Senate investigative subcommittee is examining Caterpillar (CAT) Inc.
and whether the company improperly avoided U.S. taxes by moving profits
outside the country, said three people familiar with the inquiry. The Senate’s Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations will
hold a hearing in early April, said two of the people. They
spoke on condition of anonymity before an official announcement
of the hearing. Rachel Potts, a spokeswoman for Caterpillar, declined to
comment. Two staff members for the subcommittee declined to
comment.
Wall Street Journal:
- Crimea Vote Gets Attention of Europe's Secession Movements. Catalans Reject Comparison Drawn by Spanish Government.
When Crimeans voted to secede from Ukraine and join Russia—under the
watchful gaze of Russian troops—some Spaniards viewed the drama through
the lens of a conflict much closer to home. Spain's Foreign Minister
José Manuel GarcÃa-Margallo
said "the parallelism is absolute" between Crimea
and Catalonia, the wealthy industrial region that has scheduled a
nonbinding referendum on independence from Spain for November.
Fox News:
- Medical group that backed ObamaCare warns obscure rule could hurt doctors. The largest doctors group in the country is raising alarm that an
obscure ObamaCare rule could stick them with the tab for patients who
skip out on paying their premiums. The American Medical Association,
which originally supported the
Affordable Care Act, warned the rule could pose a "significant financial
risk" for doctors and hospitals, and on Wednesday blasted out
guidelines to help members try and avoid those costs.
MarketWatch.com:
- Fed stress test: Banks lose $501 bln in bad recession. 29 of 30 banks above Fed’s minimum levels for capital. Thirty of the largest banks operating in the U.S. would see losses of
$501 billion in a severe recession, the Federal Reserve said Thursday in
announcing stress-test results that it says shows a banking system in
better shape than five years ago.
CNBC:
Zero Hedge:
Business Insider:
NY Times:
Reuters:
- Nike(NKE) warns FX fluctuations to slam profit, expects weak China sales.
Nike Inc on Thursday warned Wall Street that growing pressures from
weaker currencies in key emerging markets would take a big toll on its
profit in the current quarter and into the next fiscal year. The maker of sports shoes and apparel also said sales in China would be unchanged or even down slightly this quarter, reawakening concerns it is having trouble finding its bearings in that market after signs of progress in recent quarters. Nike shares fell 3 percent to $76.88 in after-hours trading.
People's Daily:
- China to 'Drastically' Curb Number of New Shipyards. China must
restrain blind investment in shipbuilding industry especially in the
regions of the Bohai Bay, Pearl River Delta and Yangtze River Delta,
citing Li Dong, a deputy director a the Ministry of Industry and
Information Technology's equipment industry department.
Shanghai Securities News:
- China Warns of Risk in Insurance Investment in Debt. China
Insurance Regulatory Commission told insurance cos. to be aware of the
risks in their investments in debt, especially that of local government
financing vehicles, citing a person in the industry.
Evening Recommendations
Night Trading
- Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.50% on average.
- Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 139.5 +9.25 basis points. (new series)
- Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 96.75 -1.25 basis points.
- NASDAQ 100 futures +.02%.
Morning Preview Links
Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
Economic Releases
Upcoming Splits
Other Potential Market Movers
- The
Fed's Fisher speaking, Fed's Bullard speaking, Fed's Kocherlakota
speaking, Fed Board Governor Stein speaking, (KEYW) investor meeting
and the (WLP) investor day could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.
