Style Underperformer:
Sector Underperformers:
- 1) Alt Energy -2.84% 2) Gold & Silver -2.46% 3) Gaming -1.90%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
- BFAM, INSM, VEEV, FRAN, REX, SILC, SZYM, PNRA, IGT, SHLO, BOFI, BYI, PACW, LGF, AGN, GOMO, CAMP, CMGE, USG, EQT, DEO, XOOM, ESS, RLYP, WDAY, NMBL, CSOD and ECYT
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
- 1) CYH 2) TWC 3) AKS 4) IGT 5) IBM
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
- 1) LUV 2) TWTR 3) FRAN 4) PNRA 5) WLT
Charts:
Style Outperformer:
Sector Outperformers:
- 1) Hospitals +3.38% 2) Medical Equipment +.75% 3) Drugs +.59%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
- FIVE, PVH, SCS, LH, YOKU, DGX, KERX, HDS, AOL, THC and VNDA
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
- 1) KERX 2) DGX 3) USG 4) SYNA 5) EXEL
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
- 1) FIVE 2) MA 3) CVS 4) WAG 5) TSLA
Charts:
Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Obama Deflecting Criticism Calls Russia a Regional Power. President
Barack Obama brushed aside his critics who say he’s been weak in
foreign affairs and dismissed Vladimir Putin’s Russia as merely a
regional threat as he set the stage for the next moves in the
confrontation over Ukraine. Seeking to assure U.S. allies in Europe
as well as voters at home, Obama told a gathering of world leaders in
The Hague that an international coalition is moving to isolate a nation
that no longer rates as a superpower. “Russia is a regional power that is threatening some of its
immediate neighbors, not out of strength, but out of weakness.”
- Senate Reaches Deal on Ukraine Aid Omitting IMF Provision. U.S.
senators reached agreement on
legislation to aid Ukraine after Majority Leader Harry Reid abandoned a
provision opposed by Republicans that would have boosted the
International Monetary Fund. The deal sets up a March 27 vote on final passage, Reid said on the Senate floor tonight. The Nevada Democrat told
reporters earlier today that he would drop language boosting the
U.S. share, or quota, for the IMF and implementing a 2010
international accord giving rising economies more voice.
- RBA Says Low-Rate Led Home Price Gains Can't Go On Indefinitely. The
Reserve Bank of Australia said an upswing in property prices fueled by
record-low interest rates can’t go on forever and lenders should avoid
relaxing standards
to boost profits. “While rising housing prices and greater household
borrowing are expected results from the monetary easing that has
taken place and are helping to support residential building
activity, they also have the potential to encourage speculative
activity,” the RBA said in its semiannual financial stability
review in Sydney. “It is important for both investors and
owner-occupiers to understand that a cyclical upswing in housing prices
when interest rates are low cannot continue indefinitely.”
- Asian Stocks Rise as U.S. Consumer Confidence Jumps.
Asian stocks rose after U.S. consumer confidence climbed to a six-year
high, buoying investor optimism about the outlook for the world’s
biggest economy. Samsung Electronics Co., a consumer electronics maker
that gets a fifth of its revenue in America, rose 1.4 percent in Tokyo.
Iron-ore miner Fortescue Metals Group Ltd. gained 3.1 percent in Sydney
as raw-material shares climbed the most among
the 10 industry groups on the regional benchmark index. Kirin
Holdings Co. advanced 2.8 percent on a report the Japanese
beverage maker will raise its annual dividend to at least 40 yen
and consider a share buyback.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 0.6 percent to 135.10 as
of 9:28 a.m. in Tokyo, with almost four shares rising for each
that fell.
- Copper Falls From 2-Week High on Concern Chinese Growth Slows. Copper dropped from a two-week high
amid concern that economic growth is slowing and default risks
are rising in the biggest-user China at a time when global supplies are increasing.
The contract for delivery in three months on the London Metal Exchange
retreated as much as 0.7 percent to $6,554.25 a metric ton and was at
$6,574 at 10:41 a.m. in Tokyo. The metal rallied 2.3 percent yesterday,
the most since Feb. 6, to $6,623.75, the highest intraday level since
March 11. China is headed for a “mini crisis” in its local-government
debt market as economic reforms lead to defaults, Li Daokui, a former
member of the People’s Bank of China’s monetary
policy committee, said yesterday.
- Iron Ore Price Forecast Cut by Australia as Miners Boost Output. Australia,
the largest iron ore exporter, cut its price estimate for this year and
predicted a further drop in 2015 as mining companies including Rio
Tinto (RIO) Group and BHP Billiton Ltd. increase output and spur a glut.
Spot prices will average about $110 a ton this year from $119 forecast
in December and $126 in 2013, the Canberra-based Bureau of Resources and
Energy Economics said today. Prices may average about $103 a ton in
2015, it said in a report. Iron ore fell into a bear market this month
on speculation that slowing economic growth and credit concerns in
China, the biggest buyer, may curb the expansion in demand just as
global
supply increases.
- Junk-Loan ETF Asset Surge Heralds Higher
Rates: Credit Markets. Investors just can't get enough of
exchange-traded funds that buy junk-rated loans. After a more than
tripling their assets in 2013, the loan funds are now growing four times
as fast as the rest of the $262 billion market for fixed-income ETFs,
according to data complied by Bloomberg. The biggest leveraged-loan ETF,
Invesco Ltd.'s $7.4 billion PowerShares Senior Loan Portfolio, has
already amassed almost a billion dollars in new money this year. While
the demand has been a boon for ETFs that invest in loans to the neediest
companies, it's also prompted regulators to warn that excesses which
contributed to the credit crisis bay be creeping back.
- Tudor to Return Money From Managed-Futures Fund Amid Loss. Tudor Investment Corp. is returning
money to clients from its $120 million managed-futures fund run
by Steve Evans after three years of losses. Investors in the Tudor
Tensor Fund can put their money into a managed account that follows the
same strategy, the firm said today in a letter to clients, a copy of
which was obtained by Bloomberg News. Investors can get their money at
the end of the month or the end of April, Tudor said.
Wall Street Journal:
- Putin's Challenge to the West. Russia
has thrown down a gauntlet that is not limited to Crimea or even
Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin has a long-festering grudge:
He deeply resents the West for winning the Cold War. He blames the United States in particular for the
collapse of his beloved Soviet Union, an event he has called the "worst
geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century."
Fox News:
- North Korea fires two mid-range missiles, Seoul says. North Korea on Wednesday test-fired two medium-range ballistic missiles,
South Korea said, a defiant challenge to a meeting by the leaders of
rivals South Korea, Japan and the United States that focused on the
North's security threat.
CNBC:
Zero Hedge:
Business Insider:
Reuters:
- IGT(IGT) cuts 7 pct of jobs, lowers 2014 profit forecast. Slot-machine
maker International Game Technology said it would cut 7 percent of its
workforce and lowered its adjusted earnings forecast for the year,
citing a steeper-than-expected fall in gaming revenue in North America.
Telegraph:
China Securities Journal:
- China Short-Term Stimulus Unneeded, Academic Says. China
shouldn't pursue short-term economic stimulus as growth is still in a
"reasonable range," Chen Zhongtao, a researcher at China Logistics
Information Center wrote.
Evening Recommendations
Night Trading
- Asian equity indices are unch. to +.75% on average.
- Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 131.0 -3.0 basis points.
- Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 94.0 -1.25 basis points.
- NASDAQ 100 futures +.12%.
Morning Preview Links
Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
- Durable Goods Orders for February are estimated to rise +.8% versus a -1.0% decline in January.
- Durables Ex Transports for February are estimated to rise +.3% versus a +1.1% gain in January.
- Cap Goods Orders Non-Defense Ex Air for February are estimated to rise +.5% versus a +1.7% gain in January.
10:30 am EST
- Bloomberg
consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory build of
+2,815,000 barrels versus a +5,850,000 barrel gain the prior week.
Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -1,129,000 barrels versus a
-1,467,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate supplies are
estimated to fall by -1,168,000 barrels versus a -3,097,000 barrel
decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to
rise by +.47% versus a -.4% decline the prior week.
Upcoming Splits
Other Potential Market Movers
- The
Fed's Bullard speaking, German Consumer Confidence reading, $35B 5Y
T-Note auction, Fed CCAR Results for Banks, weekly MBA mortgage
applications report, (CAB) analyst day, (IRM) investor day and (FLS)
analyst day could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by tech
and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open
modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The
Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.
Broad Equity Market Tone:
- Advance/Decline Line: About Even
- Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
- Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
- Volatility(VIX) 14.44 -4.31%
- Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 147.50 -.09%
- Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.84 -.45%
- S&P 500 Implied Correlation 54.22 -2.34%
- ISE Sentiment Index 98.0 +15.29%
- Total Put/Call .73 -26.26%
Credit Investor Angst:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 71.49 -.44%
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 100.90 +.07%
- Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 46.16 -2.50%
- Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 94.95 -.21%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 299.82 -4.10%
- China Blended Corporate Spread Index 375.0 -1.29%
- 2-Year Swap Spread 14.0 +.25 basis point
- 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.25 -.25 basis point
Economic Gauges:
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield .05% unch.
- Yield Curve 231.0 +2.0 basis points
- China Import Iron Ore Spot $111.80/Metric Tonne +1.18%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index -31.70 +2.1 points
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -7.10 -2.3 points
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.15 -1.0 basis point
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei Futures: Indicating -37 open in Japan
- DAX Futures: Indicating +39 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Slightly Higher: On gains in my medical/tech sector longs
- Market Exposure: 50% Net Long
Bloomberg:
- Ukraine Seeks to Wrap Up IMF Talks as Crisis Hits Economy. Ukraine is completing bailout talks
with the International Monetary Fund to avert a default and curb
damage to the economy from a four-month political crisis. Loan negotiations began three weeks ago. To speed up the
process, Ukrainian Premier Arseniy Yatsenyuk canceled a trip to
The Hague, where world leaders are discussing the standoff with
Russia over his country. The IMF will announce the results of
its mission tomorrow, with Ukraine seeking as much as $20
billion, Finance Minister Oleksandr Shlapak said today in Kiev.
- China Faces ‘Mini Crisis’ on Debt Defaults, Ex-PBOC Adviser Says. China
is headed for a “mini
crisis” in its local-government debt market as economic reforms lead to
the first defaults, according to a former adviser to the People’s Bank
of China. “It will be a partial, controllable and mini crisis,” Li
Daokui told reporters on the sideline of the Credit Suisse Asian Investment Conference in Hong Kong today.
- German Confidence Falls. German business confidence fell for the first time in five months as
companies assess the risks to trade from escalating European Union
sanctions against Russia. The Ifo institute’s business climate index,
based on a survey of 7,000 executives, fell to 110.7 in March after
reaching 111.3 the prior month, the highest level since July 2011.
Economists predicted a decline to 110.9, according to the median of 44 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey.
- European Stocks Rebound Before U.S. Consumer, House Data.
European stocks rose the most in
three weeks as better-than-forecast U.S. consumer-confidence and
housing data signaled the world’s largest economy has rebounded
from the harsh winter. EasyJet Plc gained 3.7 percent after forecasting
that its
loss may narrow in the six months through March. Luxottica Group
SpA advanced 4 percent after saying it will design spectacles that use
Google Inc.’s Glass technology. Baloise Holding AG (BALN) climbed 2.9
percent after the Swiss insurer unexpectedly
increased its dividend. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index added 1.3 percent to 328.57 at
the close in London after yesterday falling the most in two
weeks.
Fox News:
CNBC:
ZeroHedge:
ValueWalk:
Business Insider:
CNN:
PxFeed Top News:
- BREAKING NEWS: Russia adds 10,000 troops, air defense artillery, wheeled
vehicles to positions near Ukraine eastern border. Via CNN.
BusinessCloudNews:
TheWeeklyStandard:
Reuters:
Telegraph:
Style Underperformer:
Sector Underperformers:
- 1) I-Banks -1.30% 2) Gaming -1.05% 3) Retail -.84%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
- AI, BGC, HAE, GIII, FMI, CUK, SQI, HIMX, BIB, DSW, BK, CCL, DATA, SPLK, IBB, UVE, BSFT, LGF, AIR, SBNY, ENV, BMRN, HMIN, AWAY, HGR, NOW, CSOD and SGMO
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
- 1) FIO 2) HFC 3) PSX 4) MON 5) CCL
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
- 1) GM 2) NFLX 3) BAC 4) GS 5) JCI
Charts:
