Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +.90%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Hospitals +2.09% 2) Gold & Silver +1.74% 3) HMOs +1.56%
  

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• TNET, WUBA, SFM, RH, QIHU and VNET

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) EPI 2) IDRA 3) APOL 4) S 5) NRG

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) RH 2) AA 3) RHT 4) IBM 5) MON
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume 

• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Evening Headlines 
Bloomberg: 

• Crimea Resolution Backed by U.S. Barely Gets UN Majority. Ukraine and its backers won support from little more than half the members of the United Nations General Assembly to declare invalid Crimea’s referendum to secede, as Russia wielded diplomatic and economic pressure for members to abstain or cast no ballot. The 193-member General Assembly voted 100-11 today to pass a nonbinding resolution describing the Crimean referendum as “having no validity” and calling on all states and agencies to not recognize “any alteration of the status” of Crimea. Fifty-eight members abstained, and 24 were absent.
• Ukrainian Bailout to Test Cabinet's Mettle Amid Threats. An hour after Ukraine’s lawmakers yesterday passed the laws needed to unlock a $27 billion international lifeline, protesters chanting “Revolution!” gathered by parliament, forcing deputies to evacuate. The demonstration, sparked by one of the nationalist Pravyi Sektor group’s leaders being killed in a firefight with police this week, shows the extent of the challenges Ukraine new leaders must overcome to keep the bailout money flowing.
• China’s Developers Face Shakeout as Easy Money Ends: Mortgages. The collapse of a Chinese developer in a city south of Shanghai foreshadows a shakeout among the nation’s almost 90,000 real estate companies as the government reins in credit and the housing market slows. Zhejiang Xingrun Real Estate Co., a closely held developer based in Fenghua, is insolvent, with 3.5 billion yuan ($562 million) of debt. Its residential projects have been halted and authorities have detained its largest shareholder and his son, according to the city’s government.
• Japan Inflation Unchanged in February Before Sales-Tax Rise. Japan’s inflation rate matched forecasts in February ahead of a sales-tax increase next week that could challenge the Bank of Japan’s effort to stoke 2 percent price gains. Consumer prices excluding fresh food rose 1.3 percent from a year earlier, the statistics bureau said today in Tokyo, matching the median estimate of 30 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News on the BOJ’s key inflation gauge. Household spending fell for the first time in six months and retail sales slowed, while the jobless rate dropped to 3.6%, other data released today show.
• Japan Is Taxing Itself Into Trouble. On April 1, Japan's national sales tax will rise to 8 percent from 5 percent. Unless wages rise by an equal amount, the effect will be a drop in consumer spending. Japanese automakers anticipate a sales decline of as much as 16 percent during the next 12 months. Even if this isn't enough to push the economy into recession, raising the sales tax is a bad move that will undermine Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's agenda for the world's third-largest economy.
• Asian Stocks Swing. Asian stocks swung between gains and losses, with the regional benchmark heading for its biggest weekly increase since September. Telecommunication shares led declines while banks and brokerages led gains. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.1 percent to 135.93 as of 9:32 a.m. in Tokyo after rising less than 0.1 percent.

Wall Street Journal:

• Russian Buildup Stokes Worries. Pentagon Alarmed as Troops Mass Near Ukraine Border. Russian troops amassing near Ukraine are actively concealing their positions and establishing supply lines that could be used in a prolonged deployment, ratcheting up concerns that Moscow is preparing for another major incursion and not conducting exercises as it claims, U.S. officials said. Such an incursion could take place without warning because Russia has already deployed the array of military forces needed for such an operation, say officials briefed on the latest U.S. intelligence. The rapid speed of the Russian military buildup and the efforts to camouflage the forces and equipment have stoked U.S. fears, in part because American intelligence agencies have struggled to assess Russian President Vladimir Putin's specific intentions. 
• Crisis in Ukraine. Streaming Coverage:
• Amazon(AMZN) Plans Free Streaming Media Service. Website Said to Drop Strategy of Only Offering Video to Users of Its Prime Shipping Service.
• Climate Forecast: Muting the Alarm. Even while it exaggerates the amount of warming, the IPCC is becoming more cautious about its effects. 
• Noonan: Mr. Putin's Revealing Speech. At the Kremlin, he makes the case for an increasingly aggressive Russia.

MarketWatch.com:

• Restoration Hardware(RH) swings to profit. Restoration Hardware Holdings Inc. swung to a fiscal fourth-quarter profit as the high-end-home-goods retailer reported continued sales growth and said it had hired retail veteran Doug Diemoz as its chief development officer.

Zero Hedge:

• JPY Confounded As Abe Cornered By Inflation/Spending Dilemma.
• Paul "Contrafactual" Krugman: The Laureate Of Keynesian Babble.
• The Dot-Com 2.0 Tech Buying Spree (In 1 Simple Chart).
• Economic Weakness Creates Military Weakness.
• Picturing Our Dystopian World - Where Less Is More. (graph)
• Russia Set To Sanction US Businesses.
• Unprecedented Surge In Chinese Applicants Willing To Buy US Green Cards.

Business Insider:

• TRADER: While Everyone's Down On Citi, Here's Why I'm Selling Bank Of America.
• REPORT: Wal-Mart Suing Visa For $5 Billion Over Unreasonably High Fees.
• Valuation Expert Damodaran Thinks Tesla(TSLA) Is Worth Nearly Half Its Current Price.
• Russia May Sell China Its New Advanced Submarines.

Reuters:

• U.S. high-frequency trading ban unlikely -Nasdaq. U.S. regulators are unlikely to put rules in place that would harm high-frequency trading (HFT) as doing so would make trading more difficult and expensive for all investors, Robert Greifeld, chief executive officer of Nasdaq OMX Group said on Thursday. 
• Red Hat(RHT) forecasts disappointing full-year profit. Red Hat Inc reported better-than-expected quarterly results, helped by strong subscription growth for its Linux operating system, but forecast full-year adjusted profit below average analyst estimate. 
• GameStop(GME) shares fall as 2014 forecast disappoints. Video game retailer GameStop Corp on Thursday forecast full-year earnings below market expectations as it is yet to see an uptick in sagging video game software sales, despite robust hardware sales driven by the launches of Microsoft's Xbox One and Sony's PlayStation 4 consoles.
  
  The Obama administration will press ahead Friday with tough requirements for new coal-fired power plants, moving to impose for the first time strict limits on the pollution blamed for global warming. The proposal would help reshape where Americans get electricity, away from a coal-dependent past into a future fired by cleaner sources of energy. It's also a key step in President Barack Obama's global warming plans, because it would help end what he called "the limitless dumping of carbon pollution" from power plants.
  Read more at http://www.philly.com/philly/news/politics/20130919_ap_0f857b20e0c144a5a1e1b9dddc9f9d72.html#YRThyDOhArykUeYy.99

Obama takes on coal with first-ever carbon limits
Read more at http://www.philly.com/philly/news/politics/20130919_ap_0f857b20e0c144a5a1e1b9dddc9f9d72.html#YRThyDOhArykUeYy.99

AP:

• UN: 400,000 Displaced This Year in Iraq Violence. The United Nations envoy to Iraq says about 400,000 people have been displaced this year by ongoing violence in western Iraq, and the U.N. Security Council is expressing "grave concern" about recent developments particularly in Ramadi and Fallujah.

Telegraph:

• Windfall for hedge funds and Russian banks as IMF rescues Ukraine. Ukraine’s premier said his country was “on the edge of economic and financial bankruptcy”, but will comply with demands for drastic austerity.

Evening Recommendations
Cantor Fitzgerald:

• Rated (ORCL) Buy, target $50.

Night Trading

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 130.0 -2.0 basis points.

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 92.75 -.75 basis point.

• FTSE-100 futures +.15%.

• S&P 500 futures +.21%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures  +.19%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• (BBRY)/-.54
• (FINL)/.85

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST

• Personal Income for February is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.3% gain in January.
• Personal Spending for February is estimated to rise +.3% in February versus a +.4% gain in January.
• The PCE Core for February is estimated to rise +.1% versus a +.1% gain in January.

9:55 am EST

• Final Univ. of Mich. Consumer Confidence for March is estimated to rise to 80.5 versus a prior estimate of 79.9.

Upcoming Splits

• (MLI) 2-for-1
• (INSY) 3-for-2
• (EOG) 2-for-1

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's George speaking, UK GDP, German CPI and (DRI) investor conference could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by tech and real estate shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Lower into Final Hour on Russia/Ukraine Tensions, Global Growth Fears, Technical Selling, Financial/Tech Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  

• Volume: Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 14.98 +.33%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 146.43 -.22%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.71 +.23%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 56.29 -1.49%

• ISE Sentiment Index 104.0 +36.84%

• Total Put/Call .85 -15.84%

• NYSE Arms .91 -45.96% 

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 71.23 -1.05%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 97.70 -.17%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 47.34 +1.15%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 93.13 -.32%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 286.80 -1.81%

• China Blended Corporate Spread Index 368.52 -.10%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 11.5 +.75 basis point

• TED Spread 20.25 +.5 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -2.75 -.5 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .03% -1.0 basis point

• Yield Curve 222.0 -4.0 basis points

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $112.30/Metric Tonne +.36%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -31.0 +.3 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -7.2 -.2 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.14 -1.0 basis point

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei Futures: Indicating -32 open in Japan

• DAX Futures: Indicating +2 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my medical sector longs and index hedges

• Disclosed Trades: None

• Market Exposure: 25% Net Long

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg: 

• Congress Approves Russian Sanctions With Putin Warnings. The U.S. Senate and House passed separate bills today imposing additional sanctions on Russian officials for the nation’s annexation of Crimea. The Senate bill, passed on a voice vote, includes about $1 billion in loan guarantees and authorizes $150 million in direct assistance to Ukraine. The House legislation would impose additional asset freezes and visa bans on senior Russian officials and corporations. The bill passed 399-19.

• Russia Faces Recession Risk as Capital Outflows Bleed Economy. Russia faces a growing risk of recession as a hemorrhaging of $100 billion in capital this year may bring the economy to a near standstill, according to analysts and government officials. Gross domestic product will expand 1.2 percent in 2014, according to the median estimate of 37 economists in a Bloomberg survey. That compares with a 2.2 percent forecast in last month’s poll. The economy may stagnate at rates below 1 percent and contract if capital outflows reach $150 billion, Economy Minister Alexei Ulyukayev said at a conference in Moscow today.

• China Swap Market 'Too Complacent' Amid Funding Pressure: Nomura. Swap market has been "too complacent" in light of PBOC's relatively aggressive mop up of liquidity, Wee-Khoon Chong, rate strategist at Nomura, wrote. Liquidity may further tighten in coming days and last longer than expected, he wrote.

• Syria Peace Effort Largely a Failure, U.S. Official Says. Attempts to negotiate a diplomatic solution to Syria’s civil war are failing, a U.S. State Department official said, as lawmakers denounced the Obama administration’s response to the country’s turmoil. “The Geneva II process has faltered,” Assistant Secretary of State Anne Patterson said yesterday of talks between Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime and rebels that were organized by Russia and the U.S. “We’ve worked closely with the Russians particularly to try and get them to cooperate with us,” Patterson told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. “It’s a process that’s largely failed.” 

• European Stocks Little Changed After Rally; H&M Declines. European stocks were little changed, after a two-day rally, as retailers fell, while food and beverage companies climbed. Hennes & Mauritz AB lost 4.3 percent after reporting quarterly profit that missed analysts’ estimates. Babcock International Group Plc posted the biggest drop in four years after agreeing to buy private equity-owned Avincis Group. United Internet AG added 5 percent after saying that earnings jumped 25 percent last year. Marine Harvest ASA rose 2.4 percent after the salmon farmer agreed to sell U.K. farming assets to Cooke Aquaculture Inc. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index gained 0.1 percent to 331.4 at the close of trading in London.

• WTI Crude Rises to Two-Week High on Cushing Supplies. WTI for May delivery gained $1.22, or 1.2 percent, to $101.48 a barrel at 1:01 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures touched $101.70, the highest level since March 10. The volume of all futures traded was 1.7 percent below the 100-day average.

• Consumer Sentiment Declines to a Seven-Week Low. Consumer confidence in the U.S. declined to the lowest level in seven weeks as Americans turned more pessimistic about the economy. The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index fell for a second week, to minus 31.5 in the period ended March 23 from minus 29. For the first time since early February, all three components of the gauge, which also includes measures of the buying climate and personal finances, decreased in the same week. Higher prices at the gas pump and smaller paychecks for employees after inclement winter weather reduced hours combined to damp spirits among lower-income households.

• Fed’s Retreat From Mortgages Approaching Tipping Point. The Federal Reserve is about to find out how well the mortgage-bond market can stand on its own. Fed buying of the securities that helped spur a housing recovery is poised to fall below growth in the $5.5 trillion government-backed market as soon as May, Nomura Holdings Inc. said. Last year, the Fed added twice as much of the debt as was created, suppressing yields that guide mortgage interest rates.

Wall Street Journal:

• For GE(GE), Ukraine Roils Russia Strategy. 

Fox News:

• US intel: More indications than ever Russia could invade Ukraine. New U.S. intelligence assessments say there are more indications than ever that Russia could invade eastern Ukraine, as congressional lawmakers reacted with alarm to Vladimir Putin's rapidly expanding military buildup along the border. "The thinking in the U.S. government is that the likelihood of a major Russian incursion into Ukraine has increased," a senior U.S. official told Fox News.

MarketWatch: 

• Is this the correction, or a coming crash?

CNBC:

• Microsoft(MSFT) unveils Office for Apple's(AAPL) iPad.

• High fliers begin dipping as balloon deflates. (video) What was once sizzling is now burning. The momentum names—the high fliers that sucked in fast money—once again got hit with no regard for quality or prospects Thursday morning.

ZeroHedge:

• Here Is The YouTube "Start A False Flag War With Syria" Leaked Recording That Erdogan Wanted Banned.

• Dear Keynesians: Your Sad Devotion To A Failed Religion Hasn't Conjured Up A Recovery; Here's Why.

• Ukraine Parliament Rejects IMF's Bailout Terms (As US Passes Ukraine Aid Bill).

• Bring Out Your "Toxic Sludge" - European Loan Creation Remains At Record Low Levels.

• Russia To Create Own National Payment System In "Bid To Reduce Dependence On The West".

• Gun-Banning CA Senator Busted For Weapons Trafficking.

• Home Sales Plunge Most In 3 Years, Drop 8th Months In A Row. (graph)

• Half Of Uninsured Say They Plan To Remain Uninsured.

• Initial Jobless Claims Drop To 4-Month Lows. (graph)

Business Insider: 

• New Construction Material Is Lighter Than Water And Stronger Than Steel.

• THE BOX IPO ANALYSIS: This Company Is Burning Twice As Much Cash As Any Comparable Company.

• Apparently There's A 'Goldilocks' Hedge Fund Size.

@LOggOl:

• Russia preparing Ukraine invasion in the next two days, fmr def. min Marchuk says -- Ukr tweets. Don't know credibility of this guy.

The Hill:

• Housing risk high in spite of Qualified Mortgage rule.

Reuters:

• Accenture warns consulting business to remain weak. Accenture Plc warned that weakness in its consulting business that hurt second-quarter results would carry on though the year, sending its shares down as much as 8 percent. The consulting business, which brings in more than half of the company's revenue, has fallen in six of the last seven quarters as customers cut discretionary spending and stiff competition puts pressure on contract prices. 

• Watchmakers see only modest 2014 growth as Chinese and Russian buyers hang back. Swiss watchmakers say a slowdown in their important Chinese market, and political tensions in Russia that could affect wealthy consumers' spending there, are likely to result in only modest sales growth this year. 

• Brazil central bank raises inflation forecast, signals rate hikes. Brazil's central bank raised its 2014 inflation forecast sharply on Thursday and said it sees the economy growing at a moderate pace, signaling it may prolong its cycle of interest-rate hikes to battle naggingly high inflation in an election year. The central bank increased its 2014 inflation forecast to 6.1 percent from its previous estimate of 5.6 percent as a severe drought in southern Brazil hurt crops and raised food prices.

AFP:

• Ukraine says 100,000 Russian troops near border. Nearly 100,000 Russian forces have massed on Ukraine's border, a top Ukrainian defense official told an American audience Thursday, giving a number far higher than US military estimates. "Almost 100,000 soldiers are stationed on the borders of Ukraine and in the direction ... of Kharkiv, Donetsk, " Andriy Parubiy, chairman of Ukraine's national security council, said via a webcast from Kiev. "Russian troops are not in Crimea only, they are along all Ukrainian borders. They're in the south, they're in the east and in the north," Parubiy said.

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -.51%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Gaming -1.71% 2) Banks -1.60% 3) Computer Services -1.36%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

• PFSI, MCHX, SQI, O, SZYM, ACN, LDOS, CLVS, C, KS, WBAI, PNQI, ENZY, DWRE, MGI, CTU, CMGE, CHSP, QIHU, AI, ECYT, ARII, AYI, DATA, GOMO, CTSH, CHMT, CREE, RNG, AI and GME

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) BAX 2) CBS 3) COF 4) XLE 5) C
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) GOOG 2) C 3) BA 4) ACN 5) PCLN
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume

• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +.08%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Steel +1.75% 2) Oil Service +1.06% 3) Telecom +.67%
  

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• BAX, LULU, SIG, PBR, AA, VHC, BAS and CRK

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) CL 2) VVUS 3) BAX 4) END 5) S

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) LULU 2) C 3) PVH 4) TWTR 5) YELP
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume 

• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume