Style Underperformer:
Sector Underperformers:
- 1) Coal -2.1% 2) Restaurants -1.31% 3) Hospitals -1.13%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
- SIX, DVA, WERN, HAS, ADMS, XRS, YUM, ABBV, SHPG, BBT, RKT, MAT, ITRI, CE, CSCD, BGS, NTI, CTRL, TCS, LO, MAN, CHE, PRSC, BTU and MTRN
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
- 1) UTX 2) LEN 3) GE 4) TXN 5) JNK
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
- 1) DVA 2) AIG 3) RKT 4) ITRI 5) MNST
Charts:
Style Outperformer:
Sector Outperformers:
- 1) Semis -.08% 2) Oil Service -.11% 3) Alt Energy -.21%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
- KNDI, STLD, ANAC and CBSO
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
- 1) OREX 2) FL 3) EMC 4) PLUG 5) RFMD
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
- 1) STLD 2) HAL 3) EMC 4) HURC 5) AGN
Charts:
Weekend Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Malaysia Air Crash Killed 80 Children, Dutch Prime Minister Says. As many as 80 children died in the
Malaysian Air jet crash in eastern Ukraine, according to Dutch
Prime Minister Mark Rutte, who called the fatalities “too awful
for words.” Twenty-three of those children were younger than 12 years
old and three were infants, Rutte said at a press conference in
The Hague yesterday. The Netherlands lost 193 citizens in the
crash, the largest group by nationality among the 298 victims. Identification of bodies has been held up as investigators
struggle to access the Ukrainian crash site, which is occupied
by pro-Russia insurgents who have been blamed for shooting down
the plane.
- EU Struggles to Turn Outrage Into Action After Plane Shootdown. European
leaders vented their
outrage at the shooting down of a passenger jet over territory held by
Ukraine’s rebels and at Russian President Vladimir Putin for frustrating
the investigation. Translating that anger into action is another matter. The killing of all 298 passengers and crew of Malaysia Air MH17, desecrated bodies strewn about grain fields with rebels
hampering the work of international rescue workers, and
denunciations of Putin for sowing Ukraine’s underlying chaos
don’t alter the economic links and energy dependence that make
the European Union more reluctant than the U.S. to punish
Russia.
- Russian Billionaires ‘in Horror’ as Putin Risks Isolation. Russia’s richest businessmen are
increasingly frantic that President Vladimir Putin’s policies in
Ukraine will lead to crippling sanctions and are too scared of
reprisal to say so publicly, billionaires and analysts said. “The economic and business elite is just in horror,” said
Igor Bunin, who heads the Center for Political Technology in
Moscow. Nobody will speak out because of the implicit threat of
retribution, Bunin said by phone yesterday. “Any sign of
rebellion and they’ll be brought to their knees.”
- Gaza Sees Deadliest Day as Israel Expands Ground Attack. Israel’s ground offensive in Gaza entered its bloodiest phase yet as militants killed 13 soldiers and fighting in one neighborhood claimed the lives of at least sixty Palestinians. Gunmen ambushed the Israeli soldiers in a southern part of the coastal strip, shot them and took their weapons, Hamas’ military wing said in text messages sent to reporters. At least 60 Palestinians, including women and children, were killed In the Shuja’iya area of Gaza City today, where residents reported heavy artillery and tank fire.
- Capital Squeeze Forces China Brokers to IPOs Amid Slump. Chinese brokerages, undeterred by
the worst performance among the world’s major stock markets, are
seeking to raise more than $6.2 billion from initial public
offerings as capital constraints squeeze their operations. Guotai
Junan Securities Co., China’s third-largest brokerage by revenue, is
among six securities firms awaiting approval to sell shares for the
first time, according to filings posted on the regulator’s website.
They’ll be competing with
about 600 companies seeking capital in a market where equities
are trading near record-low valuations.
- China's First Mortgage Debt Since Crisis Shows Li Concern. China
will revive mortgage-backed debt sales this week after a six-year
hiatus, as the government extends help to homebuyers in a flagging
property market. Postal Savings Bank of China Co., which has 39,000
branches in the country, plans to sell 6.8 billion yuan ($1.1 billion)
of the notes backed by residential mortgages tomorrow, according to a
July 15 statement on the website of Chinabond. The last such security in the nation was sold by China Construction Bank
Co. in 2007, Bloomberg-compiled data show. Premier Li Keqiang
is seeking to avert a collapse of the real-estate market after data last
week showed new home prices dropped in a record number of cities in the
world’s second-largest economy. The central bank in May called on the
nation’s biggest lenders to accelerate the granting of mortgages to
first-home buyers, and cities including Nanning, Hohhot and Jinan eased
property restrictions.
- Asian Stocks Advance With Rupiah; Corn at Four-Year Low. Asian stocks rose, joining a global
rebound after the downing of a passenger jet in Ukraine and Israel’s
invasion of Gaza roiled markets. Emerging-market currencies climbed
while corn fell to the lowest since 2010. The MSCI Asia Pacific excluding Japan Index advanced 0.3 percent as of 10:50 a.m. in Hong Kong, with three stocks rising
for every two that fell.
- Speculators Cutting Bullish Oil Bets. Net longs for WTI slipped by 45,107 to 259,259 futures and
options, the lowest level since the seven days ended Jan. 21.
Long positions fell 10 percent 304,462, the least since January.
Shorts climbed 38 percent, to 45,203, the highest level since
January.
- Fox Said to Mull Using Sky Sale to Boost Time Warner Bid.
Rupert Murdoch’s 21st Century Fox Inc. (FOXA) is considering using
proceeds from the sale of its Italian and German pay-TV assets to boost
its offer for Time Warner Inc. (TWX), according to two people familiar
with the matter.
Wall Street Journal:
- Barclays Dark Pool Drew Early Alarms. Trading firms and employees raised concerns about high-speed traders
at Barclays PLC's dark pool months before the New York attorney general
alleged in June that the firm lied to clients about the extent of
predatory trading activity on the electronic trading venue,
according to
people familiar with the firms. Some big trading outfits noticed their
orders weren't getting the best treatment on the dark pool, said people
familiar with...
Business Insider:
NY Times:
Reuters:
Financial Times:
- Hedge funds braced for some of their worst returns since 2008. Nearly
two-thirds of hedge fund managers are anticipating full year returns of
6 per cent or less, according to Preqin, the data provider, which
surveyed 150 hedge funds collectively managing $380bn of assets. Of
these, 44 per cent expect a full-year return of 5 per cent or less.
- Emerging market debt issuance hits record high. Emerging
and frontier market countries have borrowed a record amount of money in
capital markets in the first half of this year, even as central bankers
warn that “debt market euphoria” could be storing up trouble for the
future. International sovereign bond sales by emerging markets reached
$69.47bn in the first six months of the year, a jump of 54 per cent on
the same period in 2013.
National Post:
- Robert Fulford: As the world burns, America shrugs.
The slow American withdrawal from world affairs has been apparent for a
long time, but has never been so glaringly evident as this week in the
Middle East. Hamas is at war with Israel, the brutal struggle in Syria
frustrates the world, the terrorists of ISIS are making serious progress
in Iraq — and now another attempt to deprive Iran of nuclear weapons
has, so far, been thwarted. The United States has a position of sorts
in each of these arenas, but it’s not powerful in any of them. American
influence has faded.
Shanghai Securities News:
- China Growth May Stabilize at 6% as Investment Cools. China's economic growth may stabilize at about 6% in the future
after investment growth falls to a normal level, citing Liu Shijin,
vice head of Development Research Center of the State Council. High
growth of property investment may fall in the next 1-2 years, Liu said. China home demand may peak this year at 12m-13m units, Liu said.
Al-Arabiya:
- ISIS burns 1,800-year-old church in Mosul. Militants from the radical jihadist group the Islamic State of Iraq
and Syria have set fire to a 1,800-year-old church in Iraq’s second
largest city of Mosul, a photo released Saturday shows. The
burning of the church is the latest in a series of destruction of
Christian property in Mosul, which was taken by the Islamist rebels last
month, along with other swathes of Iraqi territory.
Night Trading
- Asian indices are unch. to +.25% on average.
- Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 105.50 +3.5 basis points.
- Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 71.50 -1.0 basis point.
- NASDAQ 100 futures -.04%.
Morning Preview Links
Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
- Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index for June is estimated to fall to .18 versus .21 in May.
Upcoming Splits
Other Potential Market Movers
- The German PPI and (CPB) analyst meeting could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology
and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open
modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The
Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.
Week Ahead by Bloomberg.
Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters.
Stocks to Watch Monday by MarketWatch.
Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.
BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week mixed as
rising Mideast turmoil/Ukraine-Russia tensions, rising
European/emerging markets debt angst and escalating Fed rate hike
concerns offset earnings optimism, short-covering and buyout
speculation. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral
signals and the Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.
The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.
*5-Day Change
Indices
- Russell 2000 1,151.61 -.72%
- S&P 500 High Beta 33.23 -.15%
- Wilshire 5000 20,635.8 +.39%
- Russell 1000 Growth 915.43 +.20%
- Russell 1000 Value 1,000.65 +.79%
- S&P 500 Consumer Staples 464.44 -.23%
- Solactive US Cyclical 137.26 +.46%
- Morgan Stanley Technology 972.64 +.94%
- Transports 8,385.40 +1.60%
- Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 104.80 +1.2%
- MSCI Emerging Markets 44.05 +.61%
- HFRX Equity Hedge 1,176.43 +.10%
- HFRX Equity Market Neutral 968.17 +.08%
Sentiment/Internals
- NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 226,645 -.63%
- Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -49 +21
- Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 48.7 +13.7%
- CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 399,603 -5.95%
- CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,721,704 -1.2%
- Total Put/Call .90 +2.27%
- ISE Sentiment 94.0 -13.76%
- Volatility(VIX) 12.06 +.5%
- S&P 500 Implied Correlation 49.90 -.95%
- G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 5.34 +.19%
- Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 5.96 +2.41%
- Smart Money Flow Index 11,550.27 -1.02%
- ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.565 Trillion -.4%
- ICI US Equity Weekly Net New Cash Flow -$1.072 Billion
Futures Spot Prices
- Reformulated Gasoline 286.68 -1.79%
- Bloomberg Base Metals Index 200.83 -.5%
- US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 356.83 USD/Ton -.05%
- China Iron Ore Spot 96.60 USD/Ton -.31%
- UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,324.43 -.38%
Economy
- ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate 4.4% +10 basis points
- Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index .1732 -4.42%
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 126.31 +.51%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index -18.0 -4.9 points
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -4.80 -.4 point
- Fed Fund Futures imply 38.0% chance of no change, 62.0% chance of 25 basis point cut on 7/30
- US Dollar Index 80.54 +.44%
- Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 143.08 -.51%
- Yield Curve 200.0 -7.0 basis points
- 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.48% -4.0 basis points
- Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.355 Trillion +.34%
- U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 16.17 -1.46%
- Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 162.0 -4.79%
- Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 35.20 -4.58%
- Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 71.64 +.60%
- Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 199.50 +7.2%
- Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 87.0 +1.2%
- Iraq Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 351.74 +.5%
- Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 206.60 +19.5%
- China Blended Corporate Spread Index 307.60 +1.4%
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.22% -4.0 basis points
- TED Spread 22.25 +.5 basis point
- 2-Year Swap Spread 19.25 +2.5 basis points
- 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -10.0 +1.5 basis points
- N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 58.82 +1.48%
- European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 69.11 -3.33%
- Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 237.44 +5.3%
- CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread to Swaps 83.0 +1 basis point
- M1 Money Supply $2.809 Trillion -1.33%
- Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,028.30 -1.3%
- 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 309,000 -2,500
- Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.9% -10 basis points
- Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 4.13% -2 basis points
- Weekly Mortgage Applications 341.10 -3.62%
- Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 37.5 -.1 point
- Weekly Retail Sales +4.10% +30 basis points
- Nationwide Gas $3.59/gallon -.04/gallon
- Baltic Dry Index 738.0 -9.34%
- China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,088.14 -.36%
- Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 27.50 unch.
- Rail Freight Carloads 256,256 +12.84%
Best Performing Style
Worst Performing Style
Leading Sectors
Lagging Sectors
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (10)
- TWX, PHX, URS, DRC, ROC, ACM, IGT, WLL, JOY and KOG
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (15)
- BNFT, EAT, FOX, FAST, WWW, MAT, RAI, FOXA, SNDK, LBY, FRC, RCII, CHUY, AAN and ININ
Weekly Charts
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change
