Broad Equity Market Tone:
- Advance/Decline Line: Slightly Higher
- Sector Performance: Mixed
- Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
- Volatility(VIX) 12.24 -.97%
- Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 142.19 -1.18%
- Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 6.41 +.31%
- S&P 500 Implied Correlation 50.54 -1.0%
- ISE Sentiment Index 98.0 +11.36%
- Total Put/Call .93 -7.92%
Credit Investor Angst:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 57.19 +.55%
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 56.15 -4.73%
- Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 27.75 -6.65%
- Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 63.05 +1.35%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 228.41 -18.39%
- China Blended Corporate Spread Index 306.67 -1.0%
- 2-Year Swap Spread 21.50 +.5 basis point
- 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -22.75 -5.5 basis points
Economic Gauges:
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield .03% +1.0 basis point
- Yield Curve 191.0 +2.0 basis points
- China Import Iron Ore Spot $84.30/Metric Tonne -1.63%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 47.0 +3.5 points
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -13.20 unch.
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.17 +1.0 basis point
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei Futures: Indicating +59 open in Japan
- DAX Futures: Indicating -13 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Slightly Higher: On gains in my retail sector longs and emerging markets shorts
- Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my (EEM) short
- Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long
Style Underperformer:
Sector Underperformers:
- 1) Hospitals -3.50% 2) Gold & Silver -1.74% 3) Oil Service -1.42%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
- MEMP, AI, MTRX, BP, BPL, NRF, GRUB, INFI, SCVL, FUN, CIEN, CONN, NPSP, MIND, SBSI, UHS, LL, CLVS, AVAV, HMIN, ATHM, NSLP, SYT, APC, IRWD, THC and TNGO
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
- 1) XLB 2) CIEN 3) PHM 4) DXJ 5) DIA
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
- 1) HAL 2) RIG 3) GPRO 4) YUM 5) APC
Charts:
Style Outperformer:
Sector Outperformers:
- 1) Alt Energy +1.34% 2) Road & Rail +1.18% 3) HMOs +.89%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
- MEI, PVH, TASR, TIBX, DGLY, YY, UTIW, VNET, IACI, VEEV, SGMS, CBK, AKS and JCP
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
- 1) GLW 2) UUP 3) CODE 4) YUM 5) VMW
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
- 1) GD 2) JWN 3) COST 4) WAG 5) MU
Charts:
Night Trading
- Asian equity indices are -.50% to +.25% on average.
- Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 92.25 -2.25 basis points.
- Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 62.25 -1.5 basis points.
- NASDAQ 100 futures +.01%.
Morning Preview Links
Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
Economic Releases
8:15 am EST
- ADP Employment Change for August is estimated to rise to 220K versus 218K in July.
8:30 am EST
- The Trade Deficit for July is estimated at -$42.4B versus -$41.5B in June.
- Initial Jobless Claims are estimated to rise to 300K versus 298K the prior week.
- Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 2510K versus 2527K prior.
- Final 2Q Non-farm Productivity is estimated to rise +2.4% versus a prior estimate of a +2.5% gain.
- Final 2Q Unit Labor Costs are estimated to rise +.5% versus a prior estimate of a +.6% gain.
10:00 am EST
- ISM Non-Manufacturing for August is estimated to fall to 57.7 versus 58.7 in July.
11:00 am EST
- Bloomberg
consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of
-770,000 barrels versus a -2,070,000 barrel decline the prior week.
Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -1,431,820 barrels versus a
-960,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate supplies are
estimated to fall by -463,640 barrels versus a +1,252,000 barrel gain
the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to fall by
-.23% versus a +.1% gain the prior week.
Upcoming Splits
Other Potential Market Movers
- The
Fed's Kocherlakota speaking, Fed's Powell speaking, Fed's Mester
speaking, Mario Draghi Press Conference, ECB rate decision, BoE rate
decision, BoJ rate decision, Challenger Job Cuts for August, RBC
Consumer Outlook Index for September, weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort
Index, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report and the (FCS) investor
day could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by commodity and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.
Broad Equity Market Tone:
- Advance/Decline Line: Lower
- Sector Performance: Mixed
- Volume: Slightly Below Average
- Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
- Volatility(VIX) 12.17 -.65%
- Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 143.91 -.11%
- Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 6.36 -2.30%
- S&P 500 Implied Correlation 50.86 -.55%
- ISE Sentiment Index 105.0 +6.06%
- Total Put/Call .99 +20.73%
Credit Investor Angst:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 56.87 -.27%
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 59.14 -1.78%
- Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 29.72 -1.11%
- Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 61.91 -3.03%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 278.71 -2.52%
- China Blended Corporate Spread Index 309.77 -.64%
- 2-Year Swap Spread 21.0 +.25 basis point
- TED Spread 21.25 -.5 basis point
- 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -16.25 +1.0 basis point
Economic Gauges:
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield .02% unch.
- China Import Iron Ore Spot $85.70/Metric Tonne -1.15%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 41.20 -2.3 points
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -13.40 -.2 point
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.17 +1.0 basis point
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei Futures: Indicating -30 open in Japan
- DAX Futures: Indicating -15 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Slightly Lower: On losses in my biotech/tech sector longs and emerging markets shorts
- Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
- Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long
Style Underperformer:
Sector Underperformers:
- 1) Homebuilders -2.50% 2) Airlines -1.40% 3) Computer Hardware -.91%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
- CPLP, EFC, AER, RPRX, VNCE, CONN, CPG, HELE, COUP, HMSY, SC, TASR, CLMT, CDW, FEYE, CRR, TRUE, ECHO, AAPL, EFII, SPLK, CLVS, DEPO, TOL, DGLY, SWHC, CRR, VEEV, AKS, DAL and GDOT
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
- 1) AET 2) WDC 3) DOW 4) JNPR 5) JPM
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
- 1) FB 2) AAPL 3) RPRX 4) BAC 5) CHRW
Charts:
